7:58pm: MLB.com's Mark Sheldon hears from a source that the Reds' interest in Jurrjens has been overblown, and that Cincinnati doesn't appear to be going hard after the right-hander.
6:29pm: The Reds are "very interested" in trading for Braves starter Jair Jurrjens, tweets MLB Network's Jon Heyman. They could face stiff competition though, as Heyman adds that ten teams are involved.
It was reported during the GM meetings that the Reds had inquired on Jurrjens as part of their search for a front-end starting pitcher. GM Walt Jocketty said over the weekend that Cincinnati has a list of six potential trade targets, so presumably Jurrjens is at or near the top of that list.
Earlier today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Braves may wait until major free agent arms like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle sign to make a decision on Jurrjens, since interest could increase with fewer options on the market.
Yonder please!
Jurrjens for Alonso+ sounds like a fair trade. Alonso could play left in the event that Prado is traded.
Alonso in a platoon with Matt Diaz?
they can do way better than jurrjens for alonso+
Heisey?
Jurrjens for Alonso or Drew Stubbs? only seems fair…
alonso is better suited to 1B and stubbs has really bad slumps and a high K rating
That deal is not even close. Jurrjens for Stubbs straight up is a rip off for the Reds
I think you meant to say that Jurrjens for Stubbs straight up is a rip off for the Braves. No way the Reds make that deal.
Your nuts! You must be a Reds fan who wants more! Stubbs is K machine and has no track record. Nice try
I would not say no track record… He has hit for some decent power in the past and he has great speed. He just needs to learn how to run the bases.
Jurrjens for Heisey and Cozart??
I like that trade… A LOT
no our starting LF and SS?
That moves Alonso to LF. Can’t be worse than Dunn out there right?? Frazier could play SS or as I suggested below, BP to SS and Prado included in a deal.
frazier is not strong enough defensively to plays SS and bp wont be moved to ss or it would already have happened
I agree Frazier is not ready to be a starter at all. Bench player or partial player yes but not full time.
Also Reds have no intention of moving Gold Glove Phillips to SS.
Reds arent giving up Cozart, hes the only player in the system that looks to pass for a ML SS. Heisey is unlikely also since hes the best in house, low cost option for left. Plus, hes a damn good pinch hitter. Alonso+ with the plus being not much more is the only deal Walt would make, and trust me, hes not afraid to walk away from a deal. Stubbs is interesting. He is a top quality defender in CF, but DLee is right, he goes through long spells being an easy out.
Alonso is a good trade chip, but I doubt he goes to Atlanta. All indications seem that Atlanta wants a righty with some power.
drew stubbs?
He wouldn’t be a bad option, he just needs to improve his plate discipline to cut down on his K’s.
Dude….if the Reds feel like they’re 1 pitcher away from competing then Heisey and Cozart should not stand in the way. Sign a glove first SS and one of the many corner OF’ers on the market to a 1 year deal and keep it moving. Neither Heisey or Cozart appear to be impact players. JJ i far from the #1 or #2 that Braves’ fan makes him out to be but he is still a solid pitcher for a NL West team.
Red are in the NL Central.
you know what I meant.
They feel they are an ace away from competing yes but that was with Cozart as our starting shortstop and producing close to what he showed in his short span in MLB and his track record in the minors. You can’t trade your shortstop of the future to make one stab at it without a guy to fill in at short at all. We can’t buy fill-in players worthy enough to compete
Sorry mate, Don’t know if you follow the Reds close but Cozart is highly regarded by the team. Heisey I could see going especially if these Willingham rumors are true. There are not any good SS out there that the Reds could afford. I am not sold on this Braves pitch JJ. His stats seem mediocre to me maybe a number 3 guy. Someone show me something that makes this guy any good.
Go read the stats for yourself. He’s young, affordable, and when not injured, he’s good. No, he’s not a fire-baller, but do you really have to be? Frankly, Jurrjens is a better option than 4 years of Mark Buerhle or a $100M contract for CJ Wilson. Jurrjens has proved he can pitch up to the level of a Halladay last year and has done that consistently for a few years. He does have some injury concerns, but none arm related.
And I don’t think ATL would be interested in Cozart (unfortunately) anyway. He’s a long-term solution for our short-term need. We have multiple guys almost ready. Stick with Cozart, he looks like a young Michael Young.
Who cares if it’s arm related? A knee problem can keep him on the DL and effect his ability just the same.
As for Cozart, his value is similar to Eduardo Nunez. Neither project to be stars but are capable of handling the job full-time and are inexpensive with some chance of improving with experience. Don’t make him out to be the next Larkin.
Cozart is not going anywhere the Reds need him they have no other SS ready to be even close to the Bigs yet. Unless your sending us back a new SS. No Way..
I think it won’t be a straight up JJ for Alonso. I bet they’ll try to get Stubbs also, Reds might also be willing to give that up also. Stubbs and your 1B turned slow LF for a #1 or #2 guy that is YOUNG! I could see that happening
i can see the reds giving stubbs and yonder
I can’t see that AT ALL and I’m a Braves fan.
There is no chance the Reds would include Stubbs and Yonder.
Braves would have to send something else usable back for that trade to happen. Usable meaning someone that could play CF
Jurrjens is not a #1 or #2
So, Are you saying JJ in the first half was a 3 or 4 because he was kinda in the lead for the CY then…?
he’s probably saying you don’t get to cherry pick data like that just to fit your bias
I could see that, but I doubt it.
ok…let’s say he was #1 or #2 in the 1st half. He was certainly more like a #4 or #5 in the 2nd. Average the two out and what do you have?
He was injured in the 2nd half and you know that.
JJ does have his risks, but apparently you are smarter than those 10 teams contacting the Braves with the opinion that his risks are higher then his reward
He went on the DL in August but that doesn’t explain his 3.96 FIP in June and 4.03 FIP in July.
Look no one says he isn’t a good pitcher and OF COURSE 10 teams, including the Yankees, should be interested in him. However, you and a lot of Braves fans want to harp on the 1st half and completely ignore all the other issues he has. All I’m saying is, in this forum, don’t accentuate the positives and expect others to ignore the negatives and those negatives are what will probably keep the Braves from getting the return that some of you suggest.
His knee was acting up in July, he was playing through it since well, he was on pace for a Cy Young potentially until the ASB.
Why is that a legit excuse? Again, you have to factor in his health in the equation.
I think he is more a number 3 or maybe number 2 guy if he can stay healthy.
thats false
and you touch baby kittens
Jurrjens puzzles me. I tend to think of him as overrated, and the advanced metrics suggest that he has, indeed, been pitching above his level. In fact, xFIP, tERA, and SIERA all have (astoundingly similar) numbers in the neighborhood of 4.20. Then again, Jurrjens has been pitching “above his level” pretty consistently recently (excepting 2010, but he was hurt then, I believe?). Instinct wants me to say “Well, must be the Braves defense,” but I’m wondering how reasonable that really is.
Regardless, I wouldn’t trade what’s likely being asked for him, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect from Jurrgens a) an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 region and b) a ton of grounders. Solid number 2?
The hell with advanced metrics.
i agree
I’m a mathematician, I can’t help it -_-
you’re excused as long as you admit that most of them sound like abbreviations for diseases.
Man, my buddy somehow caught the xFIP last year. Took him six weeks to get rid of.
lol, FIP actually is a fatal disease in cats.
Lets imagine xFIP, tERA and SIERA are points in a sphere, and the ideal performance is the surface of the sphere…
Lets not.
“every other season” (twice in four years for FIP) isn’t what we typically mean by consistency. and his groundball rate is near the league average
he’s less of a risk for an NL central team like the reds, but still not worth alonso imo
Well, three of the last four, anyway. And the excluded one is one where he was hurt.
he’s only outperformed his FIP twice. did you catch this last week? helps
fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-random-walk-with-f…
Ack, I was partially looking in the wrong row, although he still did (marginally) outpitch his xFIP (and tERA/SIERA) in 2008, though not as much as I originally thought (because I just looked at his 2009 ERA twice).
I need to stop doing baseball analysis parallel with homework.
Just stop doing homework.
Well said, Red Sox fan. I have to agree with everything you said. I’m also cautious about the Braves desire to even move him in the first place.
Right, because they don’t have the depth to replace him or other greater needs than pitching.
This is how I feel too though. The guy seems like maybe a number 2. Cueto seems to be overall improving each year and could be a quality number 1 guy this season.
The Braves defense is pretty bad in general- the only plus defenders they had were A-Gon and Bourn last year. Freeman’s great at scooping, Heyward’s average, the rest are garden gnomes.
If he’s gonna trade JJ I think Stubbs or Bruce is going to have be involved. That’s pretty much what Wren has been getting at when it comes to what he wants in return.
Not Bruce. They (Cincy) wouldn’t do it
bruce is signed for 9 more years, they wouldnt give up bruce, but maybe stubbs and yonder
By the way, Bruce isn’t signed for 9 more years. It’s like 6 more.
ah your right
I’m just saying that Jay Bruce is the type of return that Wren is looking for. He’s prolly saying “Listen Walt, we don’t need to trade this guy so it doesn’t hurt us one bit that you aren’t willing to give a substantial return for a young stud that could anchor that question mark you have for a pitching staff. Give us Bruce, put Heisey in right and Alonso in left and we’ll treat Mr. Bruce very nicely and give him a good home. You can visit anytime you want”
jair jurrjens is a question mark himself
I agree that he’s definitely a gamble. But if it goes right the boy is a serious threat for 20 wins and a sub 2.50 ERA and sub 1.05 WHIP. If it goes wrong…then…sorry…
wow.
your really high on this guy aren’t you .. I don’t seem him being that pitcher maybe a 16 game winner 18 tops.
He’s never had a 20 win season nor an ERA below or at 2.50.
Your post reminded me of Jar Jar Binks haha..
No chance Bruce is included for Jurrjens. His contract & production make him too valuable to a small market team. Alonso, Heisey & a low level minor leaguer is about the best they’ll get.
also we dont need to trade jay bruce LOL
I can’t see any way the Reds would give up Bruce for Jurrjens straight up.
Bruce for JJ+ Spruill+ Milligan?
the braves arent looking to make a deal they are looking for a great return that will help them out so it would have to be for a guy like Bruce
Well you’re crazy. Bruce said many times that he wants to have his whole career in Cincy. It’s rare when a guy with his kind of production says a statement like that.
That aside about him wanting to stay in Cincy his whole career, He is not going anywhere he is a very good player that is signed to a team friendly deal and they don’t want to create more holes in a trade what would be the point.
prepare to be disappointed.
Look….Wren has made it clear he wants to unload salary and use it to put towards a bat. With 3 pitchers cemented on the staff and another 3 cheaper and possibly better alternatives mlb ready, then while they don’t have to trade JJ it certainly makes sense to do so.
The only way JJ nets what most fans think they deserve is if they hold on to him and he has a great 1st half in 2012.
The best trade target for JJ is a team that has a similar problem the Braves have with shortstops or left fielders.
I don’t see Bruce being involved unless Atlanta throws in some more pieces. Can Phillips play, or would he move to SS? If so maybe Prado would be involved in a much bigger trade.
Bruce is one of the most valuable players in entire league…JJ isn’t worth Bruce, not even close.
Bruce is signed to a huge team friendly deal. He is not going anywhere.
10 teams?!?! Damn son I only knew about like 5.
that’s crazy! an 11-team trade?!?!
no, but seriously, with that many teams interested, it sounds like wren will get a lot of packages thrown his way.
or, um, some interesting trade proposals?
Alonso and Travis Wood for JJ and Moylan
you can have moylan for your best bat boy
Why have Braves fans turned against Moylan? He’s a central part of our team’s personality, a great story, and one of the better relievers in baseball when healthy. It’s not like we’re paying him Hampton money or anything.
Moylan will likely miss the entire 2012 season. It is possible his career is over.
The other reason, if Moylan was healthy, we have a younger, cheaper, less Australian Moylan in AAA in Gearrin.
He’s unreliable and we paid him $2M for 8.1 IP in 2011. His price will keep growing and he’s not worth that considering the arms we have in AAA. If we need clubhouse color, I’m sure we can get Carrot Top for cheaper than that.
Is Moylan under contract at this point?
yes Moylan was picked up
Before all this gets hyped up about loss of velocity. I would like to inform you to the real reason for the drop of velocity.
First off, Jair Jurrjens is not a power pitcher when his top speed is 94.
But, over last offseason, Jonny Venters taught Jair his sinker/2 seam grip to help him get alot more movement, but sacrifice velocity. He uses those grip to hit the corners in a way that jams or hits off the end of the bat which results in a huge FB%
His knee does not affect his velocity, he dropped velocity by choice.
fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-the-ne…
it says that right here ^^^^
Kind of amazing how 94 isn’t an elite power pitcher anymore. Twenty-five years ago 94 was rare. I remember watching Nolan Ryan, probably the top power pitcher of his era, throwing one of his no hitters in the 70’s on TV and he was 92-93 tops. Now we have guys throwing 104-105 lol
The one and only Cuban Missile of the Reds =).
When in the 70’s was Ryan topping out at 92-93?
Starters probably had to conserve energy more in the 70s due to throwing more innings with 4-man rotations and fewer relievers.
Did you miss this part too?
“So we’re left wondering. This being the start of the SABR convention, we didn’t have time to do extensive HitTracker sleuthing and similar research to pin down exactly what kind of contact Jurrjens is inducing and whether or not it’s sustainable. Hopefully Team Dave Allen can pick up the torch and check it out”.
the whole “whether or not it’s sustainable”?
I ,like stubbs alot hope hes in a trade if braves do one with reds
imo id feel that he wold be available as heisey can play center and so can sappelt and denis phipps
I guarentee yonder doesn’t move, especially not in this trade. braves fans are dreaming if they think they’re getting yonder or bruce in this deal. maybe stubbs, but thats not too likely either. valaika or juan francisco are much more realistic
coming from a reds fan, that isnt enough for the braves
Reds fans are dreaming if they think they’re getting Jair Jurrjens for Valaika or Francisco. That’s nowhere close to realistic.
well if you aren’t willing to include 1 or 2 of Bruce, Heisey, Stubbs, Alonso and Cozart then go pound salt
There’s going to be a lot of salt pounding then as there’s absolutely no chance the Reds give up two of that group.
I’m a Braves fan, but even I agree with that.
why would anybody want cozart
Atlanta has been mentioned to want insurance in CF for when Bourn hits FA in a year. They also have LF and 3B as possible needs. I don’t see Freeman moving from 1B so not sure why they would really want Alonso.
I could see a couple different packages work for them.
Fransisco(3B with mammoth power potential LHB)+Heisey(LF/CF who gives you power RHB)+ lower level middle infielder with upside such as Ronald Torreyes or Henry Rodriguez …both those guys project to be MLB 2B in the future or could shift to 3B
or
Drew Stubbs(CF with major speed and some pop)+Frazier(LF/3B power RHB)+lower level guy
If they want Alonso, I’d go Alonso + Sappelt(CF/LF)
Jurrjens doesn’t throw 200+ innings year in and year out therefore price tag isn’t as steep as if we were to trade for a legit ace
That just made me think the Braves need a 3b. We will send you Scott Rolen hehe.. ok I know I should be stoned for saying that .. Nobody is going to want him.
I was thinking long term for the Braves. I know Chipper is there now but with one tough play he could be done for the season or entirely. He’s getting up there just like Rolen. I think this is the last year for Rolen and Fransisco or Frazier takes over 3B in 2013.
Here’s to hoping Frazier or Francisco takes over 3B in 2012.
I think they already have that insurance- they could move Heyward over there, especially if he doesn’t rebound his bat fully from last year. I think he could at least be tolerable out there.
Just so the ranting about Jurrjens Dropping velocity stops. read this article
fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-the-ne…
I’ve been watching this thing all night and haven’t read one comment about his velocity dropping….other than this.
There is good info in the advanced metrics, but there are too many un-measurable variables in the game of baseball to bank on them. They will tell you who to look at, but then by gosh you have to LOOK at them to make a decision.
How in the world do some people overrate Jurrjens like they do? I understand Atlanta playing their little “we value him as a front of the line starter” — but the Reds? Really? Jurrjens is no better than a 3rd starter going forward, and he’s probably a fourth of fifth starter if he continues to strike out roughly 6 k/9 and 2.5 bb/9..
At that price, go ahead Atlanta, let him be your uninspiring front of the rotation talent.
I’m sorry that all pitcher’s aren’t strikeout pitchers.
So are you saying JJ’s first half was not a front of the line starter material??
Ok what was his 2nd half and why do you constantly ignore that?
Phil Hughes had a great 1st half in 2010 followed by a horrible 2nd half. Guess which one mattered? BOTH!
I’m not gonna get smart with you on this . His knee had a lot to do with that second half . But his first is a little proof of what he is capable of when not injured . Oh , and he is perfectly healthy . He has stated that he is perfectly fine and was actually scheduled to make a start if the Braves were able to have made the playoffs .
He stated it. Really? That’s what you want us to go by. Ok.
you can’t base a pitcher on a half season though and a lot of people seem to be counting on that half season as what he will do for his career.
If that is the case Bronson Arroyo in 2010 would be staff ace on any staff with that thinking.
Oh wait that was the 2nd half not the first of 2010 sorry.
It may have something to do with the fact that he’s posted sub-3 ERAs in two of the past three seasons. His peripherals don’t support that level of play, of course, but even if he regresses to, say, a 3.5 or 3.6 ERA, he’s still a very valuable commodity and should be handled as such by the Braves organization. Realistically, I doubt they see him as an actual ace, but it’s a good idea to overvalue players going into trade negotiations, so that you can give some ground and still get your money’s worth.
I mean, I’m well aware that the casual fan may look at his ERA and fap, but an organization that seems to be well run shouldn’t be looking to add marginal arms unless they plan on using him as a stop-gap until they figure out what to do with Chapman, and to wait until some of the arms in their system reach the MLB.
He may be a valuable commodity, but in no way should he be viewed as a front-line commodity. If you’re arguing from the Reds perspective, I’d say it’s not valuable to overvalue him from the start. As a Braves office member, no doubt you’d value and market him as an ace though.
Certainly, waiting and stockpiling farm system arms is preferable if you’ve got the time and are out of contention; however, the Reds, who tied for second in the National League in runs scored this season, probably see themselves contending in 2012 if they add a couple of solid, established pitchers and get some bounce-back seasons from their existing crop.
Based on his peripherals, you can argue Jurrjens’ merits as a number X starter all day, but for a team that started Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo a combined 52 times in 2011, Jurrjens probably looks pretty damn good. As such, the Reds are probably willing to overpay somewhat, and to that end, they match up pretty well with the Braves’ wants.
That isn’t the point though. I mean, sure, we can argue probability of a breakout and such all day, and it looks like we pretty much agree for the most part, but why trade pieces for a guy that really isn’t that much better than what a random AAA arm could probably post in a full season?
Forgive me for being unfamiliar with the Reds’ system, but do they really have anyone just sitting in AAA that could match Jurrjens’ potential performance in 2012?
In any case, if the Reds are willing to move farm pieces for Jurrjens-type pitchers, I’d speculate that they also feel that their window of contention is closing, perhaps with Joey Votto’s contract expiring after 2013.
Farm pieces are one thing. Braves fans want guys like Jay Bruce or drew Stubbs along with an Alonso or Cozart. JJ looks awful enticing after what we were subjected to last year, but we aren’t willing to grossly overpay for him. I’d be much more content on hoping Leake, Chapman, Wood, and Bailey all take a step forward in 2012 and that Arroyo returns to form and Cueto continues to improve.
I suspect that Braves fans and the Braves organization have very different expectations of what to expect from trade returns.
Take away name recognition and look at the stats. A 6 K/9 with a 3 BB/9, on top of giving up 20% LD, and that’s not all that hard to find, I’d bet. That sounds like just your average, run of the mill AAA pitcher making spot starts. But since it’s Jurrjens, the name recognition comes with potential, and a couple decent years which he’s a couple bad years removed from.
I’m not saying I’m an expert on the Reds system; far from it, I’m a Mariners fan. But just eyeing out his statistics, it shouldn’t be too hard to find a guy to come up who can post a 2 WAR season that’s already in the farm system. No need to overpay for a back-end starter.
I agree completely. But those guys aren’t down on the farm. They are already on the roster. The Reds have 2 or 3 guys with Jurrjens-like potential. They just haven’t met it yet, which is why I am more content to NOT move an Alonso-type for JJ.
Gee those K numbers look a lot like a guy named Maddux. Didn’t strike out a bunch, had lower walk totals no doubt and he didn’t throw 90-92. My point is JJ is really just now learning to pitch not just throw, and he’s 25. Something to think about.
And the walk ratios that Jurrjens has posted are DOUBLE what Maddux posted.
wow
x5.
He picks the similar K rate and ignores the durability (14 straight years of 200+ IP), the pin point control (1.8/9 lifetime) and the high GB rate of over 50% for his career.
It wasn’t my intention to ignore durability or lifetime GB% , just stating that Jurrjens is learning to pitch not just throw. In addition to that I’m in no way saying JJ is the next Maddux far from it at this point. Would I like him to be out there 240 innings every yearwith a higher GB% you bet, but what you seem to have lost in my point was that you don’t have to strike out a ton of guys and be a flamethrower to be successful.
what evidence is there that he’s “learning how to pitch” (whatever that is supposed to mean)? he gave up more contact than ever before and missed the fewest bats he ever has, but the contact wasn’t especially weak. over 21% of balls in play were line drives (close to a career high), his groundball rate was average (not a career high), and he drew a career low in pop-ups
it’s easy to just say he’s experimenting and learning, these are throwaway sports cliches unless there’s data to back them up. his velocity dropped and he started throwing a different pitch. ok, cool. but his results weren’t promising and his overall peripherals are mediocre
you can have a hunch that he will become a great pitcher, but he isn’t one now
13-6 with an ERA of 2.98 is not promising ?
you just brought a butter knife to a machine gun fight buddy.
Is Ryan Volgesong better than Matt Cain simply because he had more wins and a slightly better ERA?
No one said he’s devoid of promise. Still not sure why bring up his 2009 numbers and ignore 1 1/2 seasons of 2010 and 2011 though.
is it possible to achieve those results without pitching particularly well? i trust you know it is
consequently, glancing at those numbers is not enough to draw firm conclusions about his individual performance
i just reviewed some of the data that suggesting his individual results were not in fact so good. again:
– FIP- 105 (5% worse than league average)
– SIERA 4.43 (worse than average)
– tERA 4.59 (worse than average)
– low BABIP despite high LD%
– average GB%
– very low swinging strike %
not promising
I appreciate the comparison of the numbers, because I am a Braves fan with fond memories of watching Maddux take the hill every five days AND an appreciation for what Jurrjens has done for the franchise in the last few years. That being said…
PLEASE don’t compare Jurrjens to Greg Maddux. Jurrjens is 25 and has thrown more than 200 innings once. When Maddux was 25, he was in the midst of a six-season run in which he averaged 254 innings. When Jurrjens can sustain his success for a full season, and for several seasons in a row, well…then I’ll happily revisit this conversation.
My comparison is in that you don’t have to strike out 10 plus batters whey start and throw 95 to be successful in the majors. Maddux used movement, location and change of speed for all those years, as I also well remember. To your point though YES Maddux was an innings eater, like 8 IP for 34 starts every year for 5-6 years. Believe me that was NOT my point in the comparison at all.
There was only one Maddux, a true immortal pitcher!
Fair enough…that’s what I thought you were getting at, but I wanted to be sure. We’re on the same page, then.
And yes, you’re right. You don’t have to be a flamethrower to succeed. Mark Buehrle, anyone? (Or any “washed-up” veteran Dave Duncan has ever worked with?)
I have the Braves always have .. sorry nothing personal against any poster here. I just can’t stand them and that Chop drives me nuts. I too loved watching Maddox pitch. A true pitcher with talent that is hard to find anymore .
Braves are in control. Multiple teams lined up for JJ and Prado.
Doesn’t mean all the teams on the other side are stupid. They can walk out just as easy.
As of 9:34 pm ET , the Reds GM is pushing the hardest to acquire Jurrjens . They look at him being a front end of the rotation starter .
Hmmm
Heyman? Reds beat reporter said their interest is way overblown…I trust Sheldon on this one…
Me too. Although if there’s one thing we can be sure of based on past years, it’s that no rumor, no matter who it comes from, is anywhere close to true until the player has signed on the dotted line.
As a Reds fan , I’m sure you would . But Heyman is actually there at the winter meetings talking to the guys that actually make the deals for your team . I’ll take his word on it .
Sheldon is out there as well. And he has a close working relationship with the Reds FO. Heyman tweets anything whispered in his ear.
My guess is Stubbs (ehh) or Alonso with a guy like Sappelt, Francisco, or Hamilton. With the Braves throwing a AA pitcher in. Oh and if the Reds have a decent AAA/AA LOOGY Wren will get him. This guy will become a star lol.
Hamilton isn’t going anywhere.. Not even for Complete Game James
Spruill would be a good AA pickup for the Reds.
Stubbs and Frazier for JJ
tell me about this Frazier guy. I don’t know anything about him.
Pure UT guy. Can play like 6 spots.
CF?
Not really. He’s strong in the corners, and solid at third and 2nd. He can play SS, but probably wouldn’t be an ideal solution there long-term.
His bat looks like it could play at 3rd but not in LF. I know nothing of his defense at any position. He is kinda old for a “prospect” (25). Do the Reds keep their players in the minors longer than most teams? All the names being thrown around are guys with very limited ML experience but are all older than 25. This Cozart I keep hearing about, who I thought was a young prospect, is already 26.
Reds tend to draft a lot of college middle infielders & only push the top prospects. The guys who grade out as average MLers they tend to let them bake a little longer than other teams.
He was a LLWS hero, champion; Junior PeeWee Natl Champion, Big East Player of the year and All-American at Rutgers and the Reds’ first pick in ’07. Utility-type guy, 3B and corner outfielder. Gave my boys their first autograph the other day at RedsFest. Good kid, lots of potential.
He makes an ok bench player he can play anywhere on the infield. Has really never done anything major. Great guy met him 2 years ago at Reds Caravan. Thats about it.
I think Frazier is a good fit with the Braves along with Stubbs. This would take care of their OF and utility problem.
Frazier- little league world series hero, utility typer player, could be another DeRosa.
Votto isnt long term, they may extend him a year or two after his current contract if they are contending for a ring, but thats only IF. Bruce is plan B, hes going nowhere.
I could see Jurrjens for Alonso and Todd Frazier.
lol i cant believe anybody wants jurrjens
then obviously you dont watch braves baseball end of story
lol his velocity on his fastball dropped, has only 1 200+ innings, injury prone and please ERA is terrible stat so is W-L record
You must not follow JJ very much, he’s dropped his velocity on purpose to compliment his new sinker. See story about him and Venters working on a new pitch. You obviously don’t know what you’re talking about.
uh still dont want him
I’ve watched every game the Braves played the last 2 Septembers. Saw JJ pitch three times. Two were horrible…
Yeah , what team would want that 13-6 record and below 3.00 ERA .
Ummm…..I guess at least ten teams so far . Maybe even yours .
Having interest and making a trade are 2 different things. Braves have interest in Wil Myers. Does that mean if the Royals ask for Beachy, Teheran and Delgado the Braves make the trade?? They are 100% interested in Myers….
He’s no Bronson Arroyo, but we like him.
ENOUGH with the Jurrjens is overrated talk. the guy has a 50-33 with a 3.4 career ERA at 25 years old. Until he has a bad season, please stop stating he is overrated or declining. The Braves, especially Frank Wren, is more than capable of pulling in a HUGE package for Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens is overrated. (I’m sorry you were asking for that!)
false
finally someone knows what they are talkin about when it comes to the braves
If W-L record and ERA were the total story then your post would mean something. Jurrjens is being incredibly overrated by fans.
Why would any team in their right mind give up a ton for Jurrjens? He’s about to hit free agency. I’m a Braves fan, but I’m well-aware of how stupid some of my fellow fans are in their inflated opinions of our players. Every team has fans like that. Why don’t we just herd ’em all into the Bronx and let Nature take her course?
He has this year and another of team control . If you were a Braves fan , you might would know this .
Under control for two more years, which means his salary will keep going up. We’re looking at paying this guy at least $12-14 million over the next two seasons. With Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Delgado, and Teheran as big league options at starter, why would the Braves want to pay Jurrjens? It’s an easy spot to save money and get the best deal you can for an increasingly expensive and apparently injury-prone player. Just don’t expect Wren to fleece another club in the process.
He’s projected to get $5.5 this year . If he projects even close to what his totals are being projected for this next season , he will be worth it . His projections for next year :
12-8 , 175 IP , 3.50 ERA
After watching him pitch last season , I don’t think he will be as good as he was the first half , but could easily win 15 games with an ERA of around 3.25 .
Some serious man-love for Jurrjens out there, ehh? IMO…Alosno is expendable, so we start there, unless the Bravos are dumb enough to bite on a package around Special K. Many of these other guys are not: Bruce, Cozart, Hamilton. I can see Heisey, Sappelt, Francisco, or Frazier being part of a package deal, depending on the center-piece. Alonso and Heisey or Sappelt or Stubbs and Francisco or Frazier. But if the Reds send any 2 of these guys, they will certainly be expecting more than just Jurrjens.
I honestly don’t see how these 2 teams match up. The Reds’ best chip is Alonso mainly because they don’t want to stick him in LF. But where will the Braves put him? I’d be surprised if Stubbs was traded and even more surprised if someone really wanted him, and I’d be pretty disappointed if the Reds dealt Heisey, Sappelt, Francisco, or Frazier because they’d almost certainly get much less for them than what they are worth.
Ehhhh. It was fun speculating for a minute or two, but I say pass. Too much risk involved in any deal between the Reds and Braves.
Stubbs is a plus defender in center and is one year removed from a 5.2 WAR season. He stole forty bases last year and isn’t even eligible for arbitration yet. Sure he struck out a ton, but strikeouts are just like any other out (most of the time.)
Yeah, so what? I just said I don’t see him being traded, but he IS replaceable. I do hope the guy figures himself out, but I wouldn’t miss him if he could help land a quality arm.
You said “even more surprised if someone really wanted him” and I think a ton of teams would want him.
But would they be willing to give up what the Reds would want for him? I doubt it.
Ask yourself where the Reds are going to play all these prospects, they aren’t getting any younger. Bottom line is the Reds need a upper teir pitcher and they will have to give up some prospects to get one.
Stubbs, Alonso, & Frazier for jj?
Maybe if you throw in Beachy and Freeman.
How about Stubbs & Frazier and a lower piece then
I really don’t think the Reds would trade Stubbs for JJ straight up.
If that’s the case, then no need to even discuss a trade unless they just overvalue Stubbs..
You are overvaluing Jurrjens.
Sounds fine to me if you throw a AA or AAA arm in, too. Would you like to call Wren, or should I call Walt?
I don’t see the Reds unloading Alonso yet. They might part with Heisey.
Stubbs is at a point where he makes or breaks his own career. If he learns to cut down on his K rate, he’s got a chance. If he ignores that problem or can’t fix it, his value is nil.
Agreed.
I see it the opposite way, with Heisy being more valuable with his solid defense, pinch hitting, and hitting for power. I recognize your name, you’re from RR right? Ha
Let the battle of the “unnamed sources’ begin!!!!!!
Alonso + prospect for Jurrjens.
I say it’ll be done right after noon tomorrow
I’m not so sure. Walt will have to decide if 2 years of Jurrjens is worth 6 years of cheap Alonso + 6 years of that prospect in your case. In my opinion, I’d rather give up Alonso + Grandal + low prospect for James Shields of Tampa since he is cheap for another 3 years.
Exactly. Jurrjens is not worth your best trade chip. Period.
I don’t think the Braves want your trade chip . I think that they want Heisey . Yonder doesn’t fit into what the Braves are looking for . Heisey fits the bill better .
Ill be very disappointed to see Alonso go in a deal for jurrjens. but a package of hesiey or stubbs and frazier or francisco + something else would be a good, fair deal imo for both teams
I was watching “Hot Stove” on the MLB Network and they started talking about the whole possible trade with the Reds for Jurrjens . This was at around 9:30 ET . I put that time in here to let you know that it was past the last time this post was updated .
Heyman stated that there were at LEAST ten teams interested in Jurrjens and that the Reds were pushing hard for him , making them the front runners .
So while some of you Reds fans might think that this deal won’t get done , and that your GM could find someone better as a starter to trade for , oyur respective GM obviously doesn’t think so and is making a strong push to acquire Jurrjens from the Braves .
As far as a trade to get Jurrjens . I don’t see the Braves trying to get Alonso . He just doesn’t fit what Wren has said that he would be looking for . I think he might be looking more at Heisey and a prospect or two .
And it has been reported that Jurrjens was actually fine by the time the regular season was about to end . Jurrjens was actually penciled in to make a start if the Braves would have been able to make it into the playoffs . So his health is not as much of a factor as some fans may think .
“I was watching “Hot Stove” on the MLB Network and they started talking
about the whole possible trade with the Reds for Jurrjens . This was at
around 9:30″
Ugh, damn my mom and her Beverly Hills Housewifes, I wished I woulda saw this before I was ran out of the room.
And Heisey? Don’t know to much about him. Is he as good as Alonso?
Depends on what your looking for. Defense and clutch Heisey is awesome. He also has decent power.
I would say Alonso is better hitter though.
I think he would be a better fit for us than Alonso . He’s a RHB , plays LF and some CF . Below are his stats from laswt year :
308 PA , 9 2B , 1 3B , 18 HR , 50 RBI , .254 BA , .309 OBP , .487 SLUG
His defensive WAR is average at -0.1
First year abr eligible in 2013 , free agent in 2017
His minors combined are .294 , .365 , .458 with an OPS of .823
From a Reds fan, Heisey is good and underrated. BUT. take a detailed look at his L/R splits. He cant hit lefties. He’s too good to be a 4th OF and has decent defense with plus power. He’s a cheap and valuable asset to the reds, but makes a lot of sense for the Braves.
Heisey is a better outfielder, has some power, but not so great at hitting leftys. Great pinch hitter.
I was watching that too…and haven’t stopped watching…all day…as well as all of the coming week
you watching Intentional Talk? Millar giving the Braves some love by insisting that they are still better than the Marlins.
Oh god, I’m missing IT too.
UGH
Yes I seen that . He said that they will improve , but a 30 win improvement to win the division is out of the question . They also said that the Phills , Braves are still the best in the division with the Nats still being probably better than the Marlins . They also don’t believe that the Marlins will be able to sign Pujols and aren’t buying the whole Hanley is fine with Reyes being signed and having to move to another position .
I think Reds fans would be much more accepting of a JJ for Heisey+ deal than an Alonso+ deal. I like it a lot. Lets us hold on to Alonso for when the Canuck walks.
I think the Reds have the players to put together a pretty nice package for the Braves.
Yonder Alonso is obviously expendable but I dont know how interested Wren would be with Freeman staying put at 1B and Yonder’s poor LF defense. I guess you can tolerate his D in left for a year and move him to 3B when Chipper retires but that can be a bit of a stretch.
Chris Heisey is more likely. An actual LF that might pop off close to 25-30 HRs if given the opportunity to get a full seasons worth of ABs, an can be moved over to CF if we are unable to resigh Bourn. I don’t know how likely he is to improve on his .254 Avg though.
Package him up with Frazier or Cozart (little less likely) and wrap it up with a mid level prospect and it might get a deal done.
Jurrjens would be a weak #1 guy but I think honestly think he’s a solid #2 in most rotations. However, you have to take into consideration that the injury will play a factor in what other GMs are willing to part with so I seriously doubt Wren can get a “Greinke-like” return for him.
He was over his injury before the playoffs even started . He was scheduled to make a start given if the Braves would have been able to make the playoffs . I don’t think his knee is serious enough to scare off any GM’s .
We’re not looking for long-term 3B solutions because many think we have them in house. We have Terdoslavich and Edward Salcedo both at 3B and should be given a look once Chipper’s contract runs out. I can’t see them trading for someone and making them make a switch to 3B. We’d keep Prado if we were to do that.
Yeah, but do you want to run a guy named Terd-O-Slavich out there every day?
I like both Terdo and Salcedo a lot and I hope they pan out but you have to understand that they are in the low minors right now and haven’t played a game above A-ball. Chipper is going into the last guaranteed year in his conract. Alonso has proved he can hit big league hitting, I would not mind having him at 3B if he could play it.. not to mention he’s making less than Prado at the moment.
Everyone on this thread sounds like a GM… of a McDonald’s.
The only way the Braves are getting Stubbs in a deal without more complications is if the Reds are REALLY upset with his personality which I’ve heard bits about. From what I understand he wants to be in a spot in the order where he can drive in runs and the Reds were leading him off, Reds fans feel free to correct if that’s wrong.
The Braves would be popping him in the 2nd or 6th spot which I imagine would satisfy him and I suppose he would move Bourn to LF and let Prado drop to a utility role unless we trade him.
I like Stubbs personally and it seems he’s not satisfied with the type of player he’s being forced to be but there’s obviously loads of talent there, I’d be all for something like JJ + mid-low tier prospects for Stubbs + something, asking more is absurd. Injury risks DO damage the amount you get for a player believe it or not.
Yeah. I say Frazier + Stubbs for JJ
2012 lineup:
1- Bourn
2- Stubbs
3- Prado
4- McCann
5- Uggla
6- Freeman
7- Heyward
8- SS
Thats a nice lineup if the middle of the order is giving us pop.
uhhhhhhhhhhh heyward 7th what are you smoking
For now, yes. If he comes out of his slump, then I would move him out of the 7 hole.
Then you would have to switch Stubbs to the 7-hole to get him out of his slump. Stubbs does not do well hitting near the top of the lineup.
I’m not so sure Stubbs is being forced into a certain type of player as much as Stubbs is confused with what type he is. He’s fast as lightning AND has plenty of pop. He really struggled as a leadoff guy, but Dusty insisted on keeping him there way too long. I think he fits well in the 6 hole and without looking at the numbers, imagine he performed much better there last year than he did leading off. With that kind of speed, though, you have to hope and pray the guy can learn some plate discipline, I guess.
As a Braves fan , I would actually prefer Heisey to Alonso . We are too LHed as it is .
I see people who think Jurrgens is being overvalued…which may be true. But, Stubbs is being way overvalued. He is a human windmill, he could power a small country with all those swings and misses. His on-base is terrible. I wouldn’t upset Bourn by moving him to LF. Bourn is a perfect fit as a lead-off CF….not sure about having no pop in LF. Prado will bounce back and I prefer Prado-Bourn-JJ over Bourn-Stubbs- and Prado on the bench (utility). I don’t see how the Braves improve if Stubbs is the centerpiece.
Rumors out of Cleveland has the Reds and Indians talking twice today about Alonso.
Names being thrown around so far and brought up
Cincy Alonso ( The Key ) other that Cleveland may be interested in Yorman Rodriguez / Todd Fraizer.
The Players that the Reds have been rumored to ask about their availability
Tony Sipp / Fausto Carmona / Josh Tomlin / Chris Perez / Jason Donald
Now if anything happens who knows but Keith Law said on MLB radio that the Indians and the Reds are looking like they may be trying to work something out.
The Reds did call about Fausto Carmona and Jason Donald after the Indians fell out of the race last season according to Law and he said the Reds have tried to obtain Carmona in the past he said it has alot to do with the team friendly contract Carmona is signed to and also he is a above 80 % ground ball pitchers.
So we would have to wait and see Law says Cleveland plans to leave the winter meetings with a new 1st baseman and a outfielder, he also went on to say that it is thought if Carmona is dealt and he also said the Yankees / Red Sox who have Lars Anderson / and the Mets have all called about Carmona.
But Law said Clevelands plans were if they did deal Carmona they would then make a full court press to sign Cuddyer to play LF moving Brantley to the 4th outfielder slot.
I have also heard a good deal about an interstate deal. Has the tribe with strong interest in Alonso. Tomlin was the name I kept hearing.
If Braves could somehow get alonso from the reds, it would be great.
Where would you play him? You can’t move Freeman and Alonso is a liability in LF. I guess you can DH him with expanded interleague play,…If the guy was a decent outfielder, his name wouldn’t even be in the discussion as a trade candidate…this from a Reds fan.