Email a copy of 'Extension Candidate: John Axford' to a friend
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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Extension Candidate: John Axford' to a friend
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toddcoffeytime
Doug Melvin is quite good at finding shut-down closers out of nowhere, so an overpay is definitely not in order. However I’d agree that a 4/17 or so is fair for both sides.
Douglas B
Eric Gagne got Melvin 1 save for every 1 million he was paid.
Kevin Worm
Doug Melvin found Derrek Turnbow, Dan Kolb, Salomone Torres, and now John Axford. Two of the four mentioned (Turnbow and Kolb) eventually hit the wall. I hope Axford can keep it going.
daveineg
Well obviously he’s no Mariano Rivera based on career longevity, but you might want to check his stats from last year which are certainly Mariano Rivera like: 46 of 48 saves, ERA under 2, 86 K’s in 73 2/3 IP. Nobody knows if he can repeat but those are elite closer numbers.
garylanglais
I think this is lowballing Axford a little bit. I understand he would be more inclined to agree to an extension then others due to his lack of financial security to this point. However, as Ben pointed out, Axford is one above-average/good season away from having a 2013 salary of close to $5m (from arbitration). He’s going to make $500k this year regardless so I don’t see Ben’s figures as enticing enough for Axford. I wrote this in the comments section of yesterday’s “Brewers, Axford Talking Extension” article. Ben I would be interested in your thoughts.
The Brewers and Axford will likely use Santos’ extension and Brian
Wilson’s arbitraiton salaries for comparisons. Santos signed his
extension one season before becoming arbitration eligible (as Axford
would be). Difference is Axford’s deal would have to cover four arb
seasons compared to Santos’ three.
Santos signed a 3yr/$8.25m deal with 3 club options. Max total
value: 6yr/$30.25m. At its shortest, the deal would buy out two of
Santos’ three arb years. At its longest, all three arb years and two FA
years.
I would guess the Brewers would frame a deal around 4 years with 2
club options. This would buy out 1 FA season if the both options were
exercised.
For arb salaries, Brian Wilson would be a solid player comparison.
Like Axford, Wilson was a Super Two closer and was rewarded with a
$4.4375m salary for that first year. He then signed a 2 yr/$15m
extension for the 2nd and 3rd arb year. It breaks down as…
2010: $4.4375m2011: $6.5m2012: $8.5m
Statistically speaking, the two are very similar and the scales may
even point in Axford’s favor. However, Wilson did sign the 2 year
extension after winning the WS and finishing 13th in the MVP voting
(although Axford finished 17th this past season).
Considering all that a breakdown could work as so…
2012: $1m (same as Santos in the 1st year of his extension)2013: $4.5m2014: $6.5m2015: $8.5m
Total: 4yr/$20.5m (with 1 year of arb remaining)
As said before, the Brewers will want security through club options…
2016: $10m ($1m buyout)2017: $12.5m ($1m buyout)
Would bring the previous total to 4 yr/$21.5m and max total value to 6
yr/$43m. Pure speculation on my part but Santos and Wilson would be
the logical players to use in this situation.
toddcoffeytime
You’re probably right that 4/17 is lowballing him a bit, but I think the security of a guaranteed 4 years is more important than the salary, given how his career has gone.
I do love watching the man pitch, he has one of the nastiest fastball/curveball combos in baseball, and perhaps the best mustache.