One third of MLB teams won 90 regular season games in 2011, and all but one of them –the Red Sox — made the playoffs. Each of last year's 90-win teams enters the 2012 season with hopes of repeating or building on their success, but at least one or two of those nine clubs will probably regress this year.
Some of last year's contenders, such as the Phillies and Yankees, have room for error. They will contend in 2012 even if their win total drops by five or ten games, especially since the MLB playoffs are expanding this year. Which of these 2011 contenders is most likely to struggle in 2012:
Got to be the Brewers. Losing Prince and not having Braun on roids will hurt their offense. Pitching should still be strong, though.
The Diamondbacks are the other possibility, IMO. But, they were a young team who should only get better…plus they have a seemingly nasty rotation…
Kennedy, Cahill, Hudson, Saunders…Not a bad top four.
Who’s got the best rotation in the NL West?
Lincecum, cain, bumgarner, vogelsong? Kershaw is dominant enough to be 4 starters…Kennedy won’t repeat what he did last year, cahill and hudson are strong but i wouldnt get my hopes up on saunders
“Kennedy won’t repeat what he did last year”. Yet you think a career minor league pitcher like Vogelsong will?
When was Braun on roids???
When an innocent verdict in his arbitration means nothing to people. And when they don’t know the difference between steroids and testosterone.
obviously you dont know what your talking about, because there is no difference. All synthetic steroids are produced from testosterone, they both do the same thing, unless he just hit puberty, this increase rate of testosterone is still pretty suspicious
He had no reason to use steroids. If hes passed countless tests in his career why why he suddenly decide to risk everything? Hes been an elite player since his first game in the league. Best rookie season ever and he would have been an MVP candidate if he played a full season.
gotta keep the engine running for the playoffs…
No reason to take steroids? How about winning the MVP award, which brings about millions of dollars in endorsement deals that a player who takes the field 81 times a year in Milwaukee, Wisconsin wouldn’t typically get. Add in performance bonuses in contracts and there are plenty of reasons to take PEDs regardless of how good a player is.
But, it won’t matter…there will always be doubters no matter who the player is. When Alex Sanchez became the first MLB player suspended, everyone asked “how is that possible?” because he was not a power hitter (nor really a good player at all). And now, when a major superstar tests positive in the middle of a playoff run, the same doubters are knocking down the door.
As opposed to all those other cheaters who failed every single drug test in their careers
Bonds had been an amazing player, arguably even better before roids, then he started juicing…
Or I do because I think he had a fair hearing and the technicality showed that the results may not have been accurate.
there was no increase in his testosterone it was due to how it was stored for 44hrs after it was took from his body people think that they tested it before the 44hrs it sat there dont seem to understand it was getting sent out to be tested and in the time in went funky and is the reason he got off as NOT GUILTY because the 3 member panel that hurd his case took his urine tested it right away found nothing they then left the urine in same conditions as it was for 44hrs GUESS what happened same thing came back as FUNKY so i repeat not GUILTY…
It tested positive for synthetic testosterone. No amount of sitting around can cause it to do that.
He had PEDs in his system. He got off on a technicality.
can’t wait to go to games with my *MVP sign
You should read all the facts because you are wrong a player in MLB will not get off that easy
OJ was acquitted.
The samples were sealed from start to finish. Braun winning his appeal did NOT prove that he did not take steroids. All it did was get him off of the suspension because of a technicality…one that was perpetuated despite the technician following protocol. Why do you think MLB was so pissed about him getting off? You’d think MLB would be happy that a superstar’s name was cleared…but, it wasn’t. His sample still tested positive for an absurd amount of testosterone right at the end of the season.
The samples were sealed after he was administered the test and were only unsealed once they were analyzed. That’s all the proof I need to show that he’s a cheater. Guy will be forever tarred like McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, and the rest of the “Juice Junkies.”
So the guy keeping the samples at his home for an entire weekend means nothing? You think it’s impossible to tamper with the seal over a 44 hour period? How about open the container, tamper, then reseal it and forge the signature over the seal? That’s just one method and it took me 30s to think it up.
As the public, we don’t get to see all the evidence that came up in the hearing, but the arbitrator did and ruled in Brauns favour.
Actually the type of tape they use makes it impossible. At the facility they look for tampering and the tape leaves a certain residue when removed and it is impossible to remove the tape then retape it without it being noticed.
Unless it was never actually sealed! Oh the conspiracy theories!
Lol true, too bad braun saw him seal it.
Maybe he was hypnotized? Jedi mind tricks? Who knows? hahaa
As much as I liked Braun prior to this, I think he is guilty. The fact that he had to resort to that kind of defense gives it away in my mind. If he was guilty I would have liked them to strip him of his MVP as well.
That’s what he’s advised to do if he can’t ship it in time. Better to have it safe in his home where no one can get to it than keep it in a fridge in Miller Park where it can magically get lost.
He followed protocol, and has even said since that the same situation has happened countless times with other tests, with no issues. It was triple-sealed, with seals on the cooler, the container within the cooler, and the vials themselves. And again, the whole point of non-tamper seals is that, well, you can’t tamper with them. It’s not impossible, but it’s not at all easy. I’m not saying Braun was definitely on PEDs, but he DEFINITELY got off on a technicality. If he had won because his story about herpes medication or whatever checked out, this would be a very different discussion. But since he didn’t continue that defense, and instead won it on a technicality, it doesn’t PROVE him innocent. I don’t think it proved him guilty either, like a lot of people seem to do. I just can’t in good conscience be sure he wasn’t on steroids unless they review the evidence again.
I think its funny how you all decide to trust one guy over the other with out really knowing the facts of the case
I think its funny how you all decide to trust one guy over the other with out really knowing the facts of the case
You must believe that we also bombed our own buildings on 9/11 too! Please give it up!
Haha MLB was “pissed”
because they were wrong and now it will bring ?’s
JC Romero got banned 50 games in 2009 for a “banned substance” that turned out to be an over the counter supplement that no one told him he couldn’t take.
Ryan Braun is juicing as he’s lighting up the National League and he gets a slap on the wrist.
What’s the difference? One brings in the $$$ and the other doesn’t. If Braun isn’t playing for 50 games immediately after Prince Fielder bolts for Detroit, Brewers ticket sales go down the drain.
well ask yourself this question if you were Braun why would you cheat? from day one in the league his stats have pretty much stayed the same.
Why? $$$$$$$$ MVPs $$$$$
New face of the franchise
Why not ask yourself this question….If you were Braun why wouldn”t you cheat? Im not saying he is or isn’t a cheater. But there is always that possibility with today’s athlete’s.
also should ask if mistakes happen and MLB just dont want to admit it because it makes there program look flawed
Braun has been tested before and came up clean. He takes this test, comes up dirty, and the sample is found not to have been handled properly. He takes another test and it comes up clean.
So (as far as we, the public know) he has only tested dirty once, and that once just happens to be the test that was found to not have been handled properly. Given that scenario, I will give Braun the benefit of the doubt.
Given that scenario you should see the Easter Bunny on Easter too!
H.ater lol. Braun has always put up those gaudy numbers ever since his first season in the MLB. The dude obviously doesn’t need steroids to be a MVP type player, so why would he even think about taking roids? Way to much uncertainty surrounding this case.. BUT if you look at RB’s history he has NEVER tested positive before a procedural problem. I’m leaning in RB’s corner. Wouldn’t surprise me if he is the MVP this year too.
does he look like manny
He looks more like Rafael Palmeiro.
does he look like manny
When was OJ guilty?
In the court of public opinion and everyone other than Johnny Coch-rane, Simpson and Robert Shapiro, plus 12 people who had -0- clue?
Classic case of liberal trial lawyers run amok.
In civil court?
How does everyone forget about that?
Braun has been tested before and came up clean. He takes this test, comes up dirty, and the sample is found not to have been handled properly. He takes another test and it comes up clean.
So (as far as we, the public know) he has only tested dirty once, and that once just happens to be the test that was found to not have been handled properly.
Given that scenario, I will give Braun the benefit of the doubt.
1. It WAS handled properly, it was typical protocol that was followed for whenever the Fed-Ex facility is not available.
2. The second test was weeks after the first one, which happened in the playoffs. The second time he was tested came after the playoffs, not two days after his first test or something. He could have easily gotten any steroids out of his system in time for the second test.
If it were handled properly he would have been found guilty and suspended for it.
He got off on a technicality is what i keep reading…so whats the technicality?
Braun = Bonds + Raffy + OJ + Clemens.
History will not treat Braun well. Here is why. This guy cheated and got caught. If at that point he admitted it and moved on, most of us would have cut him some slack.
Instead, he cheated, got caught, postured, wiggled off on a technicality and then went after the poor guy after he “won” his case. It wonder if the poor guy will bring suit against OJ Braun. It would look forward to the under oath response to the “so, did you ever take a PED” question.
Braun is Bonds + Raffy + OJ + Clemens (took them + wiggled the finger + got off + then took after an innocent person). Manny and Giambi looks pretty classy compared to this guy. Watch for the Brady Anderson plunged in stats…
that’s just bad thinking. every confirmed steroid cheat passed all of his previous tests…until he got caught. that’s meaningless
the players know there are big penalties for getting caught and they know testing happens regularly. this is why the designer drug industry came about in the first place. you’ve heard the term “designer drugs”, yes? PEDs that are designed to be difficult if not impossible to detect in many tests; designed to move through the system quickly to minimize the risk of getting caught when a test happens
this is a much simpler and much more plausible explanation of the evidence than the alternative. remember: braun’s sample tested positive for synthetic testosterone. there is no way one could store a clean sample, however recklessly, that would cause it to spontaneously turn into synthetic testosterone all by itself
that means someone, for no clear reason, had to conceive of a conspiracy to ruin braun’s name involving either being or paying off the person in custody of his sample, timing everything exactly right in order to even have the opportunity in the first place, acquiring synthetic testosterone independently and then somehow putting it into the sample without ever breaking the seal (which was certified) using some technology previously unknown to mankind…
or! braun used designer PEDs — for which there is an active industry and to which he had easy access — like countless others in his profession have for reasons that are obvious to everyone
use your head. i like ryan braun. i’m not out to get him. i think it’s appropriate that he wasn’t punished if policy wasn’t strictly adhered to. but you basically have to believe in magic to believe he didn’t use PEDs
Well said! Unfortunately, only 50pct of the posters here have common sense.
50%? I’d say that’s generous.
It’s sad some people talking about common sence when they seem not to have a true understanding for what it really is
I don’t see them making the playoffs but I really don’t have high expectations for them is the thing.
LaRussa and Pujols was a huge loss to the Cards…I don’t see them doing well this next year.
I’ve got the Reds winning, but AW and CB will make up for Pujols.
What makes up for the loss of Ducan? How is Matheny making up for the loss of Tony?
You’re putting a ton of weight into coaching.
Wish this was a “check all that apply” question
Brewers had best starting pitchers ERA in the central last year. should be stronger this year with greinke off the basketball court. A-ram and gamel should be able to fill princes void. Still a 90 win team
They are going to need a lot to go right to win 90 games. Too many unknowns to call any team in the central a favorite right now with the Reds, Brewers, and Cards all having multiple question marks
Boston losing Lackey has got to put them in the crosshairs. They’ll be lucky to touch 90 wins this year.
Man, do the Cardinals have a slew of injury-prone guys…….
I think they’ll contend, but almost all of their key players could be fairly labeled as ‘injury-prone.’
Carpenter’s been extremely durable these past 3 years, but he’s about to turn 37 and has had numerous operations throughout his career.
Beltran’s knees held up for the most part last year, but he combined for just 612 plate appearances the previous two years.
Berkman’s in a similar position with his knees and recent injuries, despite both guys having a great season in 2011.
Wainwright’s returning from Tommy John surgery and while there’s a high success rate, you’re always a little weary when any pitcher misses an entire season.
Rafeal Furcal hasn’t played in more than 97 games since 2009.
David Freese managed just 167 games the last two seasons.
I think they’re gonna be without Allen Craig for a couple of months as well. I’m not worried about Holliday’s health and it wouldn’t surprise me if the vast majority of those guys I listed held up, but you feel like they can go down at any time when you’re watching them. Every team has health concerns, but the Cardinals scare me more than any other team in that department. If most of those guys stay healthy, they’re more than capable of winning 90+.
I would be more worried about Wainwrights effectiveness this season than injury. If some of these older guys are handled correctly they should be fine. Mets were cautious with Beltran last season but it turned out that he was able to play in many more games than expected while still being an offensive force and perfectly capable in RF. He hit the DL with a wrist injury and still played in 140+ games. Furcal is the real worry.
Craig will be back the second or third week of April
If any of the starting five suffer an injury the replacement is likely Roy Oswalt. Not a bad card to have in your back pocket.
I imagine that goes for most contenders.
If winning 66.7%+ of their regular season games can be called a disappointment, then the 2012 edition of the Red Sox will disappoint. Bobby V. has improved the performance of every team he has managed in prior years so, adding 10 to 15 games more in Boston’s win column than in 2011 is not an unreasonable expectation.
Please tell me you aren’t serious
I am dead serious. This is primarily the same team that won 83 of 123 ball games last year over a four month stretch in 2011. The can repeat that experience in 2012 without starting out 2-10 and closing out the season losing 20 of 27 games. I blame Francona for both of the aforementioned scenarios. He didn’t get his team ready to play in spring training. Plus, he was ill equipped to know what to do to break out of the team’s tail spin in September. By that time, he had lost it completely, which is why we all know he lost his job. I don’t think that Bobby V. will repeat the same lack of an effective approach to the manager’s job in 2012. In fact, I think his presence is worth at least 10 more wins than the 2011 team was able to win in all season long.
Bobby isn’t going to win them 10-15 games, and they aren’t (and weren’t) really the team that won almost 70% of their games through the middle of the summer any more than they were the team that lost almost 70% of their games. The truth is they were probably somewhere around a 95-96 win team (which is about where pythagorean w-l put them) and they are probably something close to that again this year, but Bobby has absolutely nothing to do with it and Francona didn’t lose them games last year, he didn’t make them suck for a month and a half last year, he didn’t make them out of shape to start and end the year, he never threw a pitch, he never stood in the batters box, he never fielded a ground ball or caught a pop up, last year was on the players plain and simple.
As I recall Mainer, you along with me and many other posters were calling for Francona’s head early in 2011 and rightfully so. You are correct that Tito didn’t make a single play in the field but he made enough bonehead plays on the bench to more than make up for it. Bobby V. has a history of winning significantly more games than his predecessor with lesser teams that he has managed in prior years. I expect that he will do the same in Boston…with the talented roster he has been handed. BTW, I read Bill James too. Even he has no explanation she the Sox only won 90 games when, by his formulas they should have won at least 95/96 games in 2011. IMHO, those 5-6 games were lost by the manager…so don’t tell me that the manager’s presence of mind doesn’t have an impact on a team’s seasonal W/L record. They surely do.
You definitely remember incorrectly, the only thing I had issue with was one game when he left Bard in way too long when it was clear that he didn’t have it.
And Bobby only took over two MLB teams before now so it’s not like there is a sufficient sample to say that he “has a history” of winning more than the previous manager. He took over the Rangers a month into the ’85 season and managed them to their worst record since 1973, only to do better than himself in ’86, so he’s really only outperformed the previous manager once.
Right…winning 105 games in a division with the yankees,rays, and blue jays….I mean do they play the Orioles every game?
The only AL team that gave the Red Sox problems in 2011 were the Rays and I seriously doubt that experience will repeat itself in 2012. This was a team that should have won 94-95 games in 2011 even with its terrible start and September fold. They performed well enough to in every respect except field strategy and game calling to do so. That won’t happen with Bobby V. as the manager. Lets not forget that over 4 month span they won 83 of 123 goes too (.667%). I think they can extend that winning percentage out over the entire season in 2012.
10-15 games?!?!
Because of Bobby V…
the only thing bobby has said so far that i’ve liked has been this:
Most managers can only lose games. They can never win a game.
hahahahahahahahaha
100-105 wins is absolutely an unreasonable expectation.
Heck, they were on pace to win 100+ games last year until Labor Day rolled around. This, after a 2-10 start! With a guy like Bobby at the helm, it is at least an even bet that they win 100+ games in 2012.
hah
I’m not saying they can’t, they’re more than capable of it and as you said, they were on pace for it, I just don’t think you can ever expect a team to win 100 games because so many different things can happen.
99 is fair though!
hah
I’m not saying they can’t, they’re more than capable of it and as you said, they were on pace for it, I just don’t think you can ever expect a team to win 100 games because so many different things can happen.
99 is fair though!
“One third of MLB teams won 90 regular season games in 2011” :confused:
actually, 9/30 = 30%
astros arent an mlb team
I would say the Diamondbacks. Yes they have a lot of young talent but they are in the NL West which almost always has a different division winner the next year with the first place team struggling.
I’m going with the Brewers and Red Sox. Milwaukee losing Prince is obviously a huge deal, and I don’t think Gamel will hit well enough but they should still win around 85 games or so.
Boston is a total wild card to me. They still have talent to be a very good team but I just think the Yanks and Rays have much better teams right now. They really didn’t address their pitching issues, and while their top 3 is nice, if any of them goes down, it will be hideous watching guys like Cook, Silva, and Ohlendorf pitch meaningful games. They are also getting a little old and banged up on offense. Might be a long year.
Not saying your wrong but i hope you are not right lol also have to remember we did pick up a good player to help with the loss of Prince in Aramis Ramirez
I don’t know, the Brewers do still have Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum plus a better offense than quite a few teams, especially with Braun playing. I’m sure they’ll do well. The question wasn’t whether they’ll repeat their success but whether they’ll disappoint! Anything over 85 wins would be a great season for them! With the Giants back aint no way the D’backs are repeating or even getting close imho.
Got to be the Cardinals. They are going to miss Pujols badly. They probably won’t even make the playoffs this year.
Sour grapes Rangers fan?
Is this a joke putting the Red Sox on this list. There’s no way they could possibly disappoint more than last year when they out and out QUIT!
They have all of the 90 win teams.
The Phillies will disappoint. Blanton instead of Oswalt is a loss, uncertainty with Ryan Howard, and aging Chase Utley and Placido Polanco. They do get Hunter Pence for a full season, and Ibanez is gone to be replaced by Mayberry Jr. or Domonic Brown. You get a full season of your closer instead of some of the patchwork with Contreras and Co., but I don’t see Papelbon being dominant. The rest of that division has improved (well, at least the Nats, Braves, and Marlins have) which will lead to more losses on the unbalanced schedule. Do you expect Worley to repeat his 2011? The once powerful Phillies lineup is not intimidating and you can count on Charlie Manuel to blow some games here and there.
I respect your opinion but…
Papelbon going from the AL East to the NL East should mean an improvement, not a regression. Utley missed two months and was never quite “caught up.” Polanco is awful offensively, I’ll give you that. Oswalt hardly pitched last year and when he did he wasn’t the same old Oswalt. The guy didn’t have his head (or back) in the game. Ibanez being gone is addition by subtraction, guy was a GIDP machine. Even if Vance doesn’t repeat his performance (which I think is a joke how people say that just because he wasn’t a very highly regarded prospect…how many highly regarded prospects bust out and how many anonymous guys become stars?) the Phillies 3 aces would need to deeply regress in order for the team to fall below 92-93 wins (that’s assuming the offense is as stagnant as it was at times last year).
Their bench has dramatically improved. Substitute Wilson Valdez (who had to start the first couple of months at second base, then once again at SS when Rollins was out), Ben Francisco, and Ross Gload with Laynce Nix, Juan Pierre, and Jim Thome and I think you have the makings of one of the best benches in the NL.
Meanwhile, the bullpen is improved from last year where Danys Baez had a 6.25 ERA before getting axed, Contreras missed basically the entire season, and the team relied on two rookies in Bastardo and Stutes to basically pitch every 7th and 8th inning from June on. In 2012, Bastardo and Stutes will be complemented by Pap, Dontrelle Willis, Chad Qualls, and the return of Contreras.
Is it possible that everything goes wrong and the Phillies win “only” 90 games? Sure. Is it likely? No. Certainly not any more likely than Milwaukee (who lost their best player), St. Louis (ditto), or Arizona.