Here's the latest on the Red Sox, who are trying to get back to the playoffs after two straight years on the outside looking in…
- The Red Sox did not make an offer for Nationals starter John Lannan, reports WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Yesterday we heard that they had made an offer for the southpaw, but weren't close. Speier says the Sox intend to monitor Lannan's situation this spring, but there is no indication they will seriously pursue him.
- Boston will pursue 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, reports Speier. Soler is still waiting to be declared a free agent by MLB, but Speier says most in the industry (including the Red Sox) expect him to sign with the Cubs.
- Check out our Transaction Tracker for a recap of all the Red Sox's moves this offseason.
get soler and i will forgive you for scutaro
I forgive him for Scutaro if it means Iglesias in the field, even if he hits .220.
If he gets Soler, I’d forgive him for going into the season pinning 40% of the rotations hopes on Bard and Aceves, counting on guys like Beckett and Buchholz to stay healthy the entire year, and having guys like Andrew Miller and Carlos Silva as the reinforcements when someone inevitably goes down…nah, who am I kidding?
…have you been listening to weei again
your expectations for back-end starters seem too high. most teams would love to have a starter with bard’s upside in the 4 slot
buchholz and beckett have been healthy since the end of last season and since the end of the 2010 season respectively. oswalt would have been very nice, but this team is in good shape. scutaro trade aside, cherington had a good offseason
ha ha ha I am embarrassed to admit it but I do occasionally tune in to them and 98.5 while sitting in traffic, but haven’t done so recently.
My expectations for the back end are some guys who can eat innings and keep you in the game. Bard and Aceves will likely have caps at 140-150 innings, so somebody will need to fill in.
While both have great potential in the rotation, much more than most teams 4s and 5s, it’s just that- potential. Nobody knows how either will hold up the 2nd or 3rd time through a MLB lineup. I love them both, but they are less than sure things in these roles. If they hit on both, look out Yanks! But what are the chances of that happening with both of them? Do you really want to see Andrew Miller, Carlos Silva, or Brandon Duckworth on the mound with any regularity in Fenway this summer?
I’m serious…you’re usually extremely rational, why the faith that it’ll work out?
And don’t get me started on Clay “1 in 3 healthy seasons” Buchholz. His health at the end of last season is irrelevant, I’m worried about his ability to stay healthy going forward. Who’s going to pick up those innings if he can’t?
I hope you’re right, but pitching is what killed this team at the end of last season and I’d feel much more comfortable with a couple more reliable starters in the wings.
Buchholz missed two weeks with a torn fingernail in ’08, was healthy all year in ’09, missed two weeks with a pulled hamstring in ’10 but still threw ~175 innings, made 29 starts (one was a AAA rehab start), and had an outstanding season (even ignoring the 2.33 ERA), and then he missed significant time last year for the first time in his career but is 100% healed from that injury.
The parents of any children within earshot of my living room hope you’re right this summer
it isn’t about faith; i’m still being rational
would this line make sense to you in a contract negotiation (or anywhere else really): “what you did last year is irrelevant; i am worried about the future”
of course it wouldn’t. examining the past is exactly how we project the future. clay’s health last year has everything to do with his health this year
and again, the difference between us here is that you have much higher expectations for your 4th and 5th starters than i do. i’d bet good money that bard will be at least a league average 4th starter this year – probably better. there is nothing interesting happening with the #5 for a few months, but then it’s matsuzaka’s spot. say what you will about the guy and his contract, as #5’s go he’s quite good
just a reminder:
3 – lowe
4 – arroyo
5 – wakefield
3 – matsuzaka
4 – wakefield
5 – tavarez
these are the back ends of world series caliber rotations. the sky is not falling. this is not a question of faith. you are talking about a top offense with a good bullpen between healthy jon lester, josh beckett, and clay buchholz. bard and random+matsuzaka is just fine
oswalt would be better, i couldn’t agree more. but it’s adding oswalt is a question of a good rotation versus a very good rotation, not making or breaking the season
The sky may not be falling, but for someone to go from relief at matsuka’s injury to counting on him to help shows that we’ve got a few cracks. I hope you’re right good sir, I hope you’re right.
I don’t know if this means anything at all, but Valentine has said he wants Daisuke to pitch the way he pitched in Japan, and the way he was successful, which he was never allowed to do in Boston under Tito/Farrell. He had to change to the Sox’s warmup and off day routines, and he had to limit the number of pitches he threw (not pitch count, but number of types of pitches); Scouts were talking about his curveball being his best pitch before he signed, and he hasn’t even thrown it the last two years (he threw it about 5% of the time in his first two seasons in the states, and those were the only seasons he had any real success, coincidence? maybe.)
I’d like to see Iglesias in Boston, but only if they believe he is a player whose development wont be hurt by struggling in the majors.
And you’re misrepresenting the Sox pitching quite a bit in your comment. It’s perfectly reasonable to count on Beckett and Buchholz to be healthy – Beckett has average 30 starts per season since coming to Boston, and Buchholz was healthy enough to pitch at the end of last season, but they shut him down just to be on the safe side, so six months or so later he’ll be perfectly healthy. There’s no guarantee that either of Silva or Miller will even be on the team on opening day, so saying that they are the rotation depth is disingenuous. And they have repeatedly stated their willingness to trade for or sign a pitcher if they feel that the starters they have aren’t working out.
So who’s the rotation depth then? Padilla? Bowden? Doubront? Tazawa? Like they’re any more reliable than Miller or Silva.
Listen…I love the optimism, and believe me, I hope you and notsureifsrs are right- but I’m not drinking any kool-aid unless it’s 100 proof, and I just don’t see the potency I’d like here.
I don’t think both Bard and Aceves make the rotation (it would be too much to have two pitchers on innings limits), so I would say Aceves is starting pitching depth, and any of Cook, Padilla, Doubront, Mortensen, and the aforementioned Silva and Miller who don’t make the rotation could all be potential starting pitching depth, along with Wilson and maybe Tazawa, and Pimentel from the minors. There’s also guys like Stroup, Couch, and CBM who could earn call-ups closer to mid-season.
Exactly. They aren’t the contingency plan- they’ll be counted on. And you’re comfortable with that cast being run out there? I know you can’t spin gold out of hay…too bad our barn appears stocked to the rafters.
If Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz are all healthy and effective (which there’s no reason to think they wont be at this point) they will have a top three as good as, or better than, 95% of teams in the game; all they will need is innings out of the #4-5 spots, and with all those guys they’ll be able to get them.
Plus, with Bard in the #4 spot there is potential for a 4th very good pitcher which would make their overall rotation better than almost any rotation in the game regardless of who is in the #5 spot. Not saying this is likely, but the potential is definitely there.
do you remember the cardinals’ rotation last year? carpenter, garcia, jackson, and then a pile of hot garbage
do you remember the yankees’ rotation last year? sabathia, a few +2 randoms and a.j. burnett
for crying out loud do you remember boston’s rotation last year? lackey’s 6 ERA was the third starter and wakefield and miller backed him up. and even with that mess it took a record-breaking series of improbable events to prevent them from making the playoffs
the phillies and angels are the exception to the rule. most good teams have two or three very good starters and then wildcards and/or filler after that. and most of them don’t have the benefit of boston’s offense
Boston will be in the PlayOffs again whem the Angels Rangers Detroit Yanks and SF/San Diego move to the National League
huh, what?!? san diego is moving to the National League! can’t wait
Bet he signs with a mystery team.
Tigers? Tigers.
Why does everyone assume Soler is signing with the Cubs?
For the same reason that everyone believed the Cliff Lee was going to New York, Yoenis Cespedes was going to Miami, and Prince Fielder was going to Washington.
Not really. It was reported that he had a deal in place with the Cubs and was just waiting to be declared a free agent before it could be official; people pointed out that that was not only against the rules, but illegal, and the reports were quickly denied, but most people are still under the impression that they have talked extensively and it’s just a matter of waiting for him to become a free agent.
I don’t personally believe that that is necessarily true, but that seems to be the impression most people have.
If it’s not official, then I’m not buying it.
Me either, but it’s not really the same situation as Lee, Fielder, or Cespedes.
it probably has to do with the Cubs being the most outspoken about how much money they’d be willing to invest in Soler, I think they threw out a figure of something like a $26M contract for like 6 years, and the baseball media completely ran with that. That is a very hefty deal for a 19 year old though, and if it’s true, it doesn’t seem very plausible that many other teams would be willing to invest that much on such a young and unproven player. But who knows, anything is possible and if we’ve learned anything from this offseason is that the teams that play it closest to the vest ultimately end up with the player. As a Cubs fan, I would love for the Cubs to end up with Soler if what the scouts say about him is true, but I’m not holding my breath.
now that apparently there’s a clear front runner for soler, the mystery team is guaranteed to swoop in.
joke’s been beaten to death but it’s still insanely relevant
Because then fans of other teams can fawn over Soler.
“most in the industry (including the Red Sox) expect him to sign with the Cubs.”
…Which means he’ll probably sign with someone else.
Soler to the Blue Jays. then he can hang out with Escobar and Hechevaria and legally smoke Cuban cigars
Red Sox pitching..2012
Starters: Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, Bard (as long as he pitches well), Miller, Matsuzaka (by mid season)
Long Relievers: Aceves, Doubront, Albers, Bowden
Short Relievers: Melancon, Bailey
I would absolutely love it if Miller pitched well enough to make the rotation, but I think it’s more likely that we see one of Doubront, Padilla, or Cook in the #5 spot (for what it’s worth I would be leaning towards Doubront, but my money is on Padilla being the #5).
I would like to see Miller get that 2nd chance also as the #5, then his elbow tightness and missing his turn earlier this past weekend may not have helped his cause any.
Before ST was thinking Padilla, but now would prefer to see either Miller, or Doubrant with both making the team and padilla at Pawtucket since they have time to make up their mind on him before his walk date. They also need to figure out what to do with bowden, who Valentine seems to want to give the benefit of the doubt before making up his mind on.
If Padilla doesn’t make the rotation he’ll probably be in the ‘pen (he’s said he would be willing to do either in Boston). My best guess would be that all of Doubront, Miller, Padilla, and Bowden are on the team on opening day with the possible exception of if none of Padilla, Doubront, and Miller are in the rotation.
If I had to make an early guess at how things turn out I would say it ends up being something close to this:
Rotation
Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Bard
Padilla
Bullpen
Bailey
Melancon
Aceves
Bowden
Doubront
Miller
Albers
I think there is a legitimate chance that Cook bumps Padilla (or whoever is in the #5 spot) to the ‘pen once he is ready (he’s just getting started in spring training because of an injury so he’ll be a few weeks behind) and at that point they would presumably have to cut someone; if it were me I would probably cut Albers at that point, but they could just cut whoever is having the worst start to the year.
I could see that situation and like it you have proposed, with the exception of Matt Albers.. Would like to get a long look at him, or at least a solid month of the regular season to make sure what we saw of him from April to July was no fluke.. He was the anchor let’s not forget from the 6-7th inning in the BP in that span and would not like to see he waived only because they have others out of options when he could be used less often and be more productive if that was the case later on last season.
For some reason and I don’t really know why, but Ohlendorf intrigues me over Cook. I understand he hasn’t thrown yet this spring with his health issues, but am hoping he can come up after a few starts at Pawtucket later on and be of use.
Albers was good for 14 innings in May and 13 innings in July, other than that he stunk. He wasn’t a good pitcher in Baltimore either, so I have serious doubts that those 27 innings mean anything at all. I could be wrong, I’d gladly be wrong, but I just don’t see it.
I hope you are wrong about Padilla. He has the reputation of being a troublemaker in the dugout and bullpen.. They don’t need that kind of trouble this year. Cook is out of the running, so I would be happy with Doubront getting a shot, if he is in shape. Another left-hander on the staff who can pitch well and often will be helpful over the course of 162 regular season games IMHO, I think Dice-K will be the surprise of the season in Boston. He may come back a better pitcher than when he first joined the Sox……healthier, older and wiser.. If Dice-K returns Miller may be let go, if he is not pitching well, consistently so he has about 12-14 starts to prove he is major league caliber. I am also partial to the guys like Doubront and Bowden who have paid their dues. They deserve a full shot… but if all else fails…Cherington will have to go fishing….probably out west
If Padilla proves to be the best pitcher of the bunch I don’t care if they have to buy him a new puppy to kick before every start, he needs to be the #5 starter.
Cook isn’t out of the running at all, he is a couple weeks behind the other guys because he is/was recovering from an injury so he started spring training late, but he is still very much in the running.
I would love it if Doubront won the #5 starting role, but I’m not going to just hand it to him if someone else is pitching better.
I agree that Dice-K could be pretty big for the Sox when he returns, but you have to take his past into account and temper expectations (a lot). Even if he isn’t any better than his career (in Boston) average there is a good chance he is the best option for the #5 spot.
I think Morales is let go long before Miller (Miller at his worst is essentially what Morales is at his best – a power lefty reliever with control problems – but Miller has 10x the upside), and I think Albers would let go before Miller too, so I think Miller sticks with the team even after Dice-K comes back.
Papelbon and Reddick? They absolutely made the right choice not giving Papelbon that ridiculous contract, and Reddick is a 4th outfielder on a contending team.
up the offer and promise to root for a different team
What is the Cubs take on Sczur (spelling)? I played with him in High School, haven’t heard much since he left ‘Nova, though.
Just like the Marlins outfield will look stacked with Cespe.. oh wait.
What is your imput on the Scut Trade and the Ross signing?
Reddick may very well be a 4th or 5th outfielder on the Oakland A’s who are not a contending team.
I recently remember hearing from Keith Law that Sczcur was basically a slap hitter and needed to adjust his approach if he was going to advance as a prospect
the cubs farm system has some pretty good outfield talent. Jackson should be up next season at the latest. Szczur could be a 4th outfield type. Reggie Golden could be the same. I like having Campana around as defensive replacement/pinch runner. Soler could be the power hitting complement they need to the on-base/speed guys in the system now.
The Scutaro trade still makes no sense to me, other than as a simple salary dump, and in any case I don’t like it because they should have been able to easily get more for Scutaro. I don’t mind the Ross signing; they needed an outfielder, he isn’t a terrible player, and it’s a short deal.
I replied and for some strange reason it needs to be approved first, but basically I don’t like the Scutaro trade at all (it doesn’t make sense and they should have been able to get more), and I don’t mind the Ross signing (he’s an okay player and it’s a short term deal).
Hopefully my other comment shows up here at some point.
EDIT: there it is
No closer is worth that money. Consider that even the most dominant of relief pitchers who have outstanding seasons are only worth 2.5- 3 WAR on average
Reddick might start in Oakland, but wasn’t good enough to really be a starter in Boston (he strikes out too much, walks too little, and doesn’t hit for a high enough average to compensate for the lack of walks) and Papelbon did not earn that contract, no reliever should get a contract like that; that contract was just plain foolish.
Another comment that has to be approved for no reason…
Reddick has done nothing to show that he’s more than a 4th outfielder and isn’t even certain to start in Oakland, and no reliever should get a contract like the one Philly gave Paps; it was nonsense.
EDIT: and that one
Yes. Thats not my opinion but that was his take. It was in one of his recent chats.
It’s cause you said “dump”…
Bears-Soldier Field.
Law is shockingly low on Szczur, going so far as to compare him to Juan Pierre. It’s almost laughable, since Szczur hit 10 HRs last year (as a slap hitter, apparently), to the 2 HRs Pierre hit as a minor leaguer.
Szczur is a guy that routinely gets the barrel of the bat on the ball, and although he doesn’t have a swing that will generate much power, he makes very good contact and the ball really flies off of his bat. He’s got good speed, is very good defensively and projects to be the Cubs CFer of the Future, moving Jackson to a corner spot.
Others are much higher on Szczur, ranking him around 60-90 on top 100 prospect lists.
3 WAR x 4.5 million = 13.5 million per year for a 3 WAR player…I think that’s how fan graphs does it.
Boycott Fangraphs!
He’s averaged just over 2.0 WAR per season for his career, so 2 x 4.5 = $9mil per year, and he’s already 31 so he is likely to begin his decline in the next year or so, so (particularly on a 4-5 year deal) he is not going to be that pitcher for the majority of his contract.
In fact, even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he is a true 3.0 WAR reliever this year, and you assume that the option does not vest, when you apply the standard 0.5 WAR decline per season for players past their peak years for the length of his contract in Philly you end up with 9 WAR total and he ends up being worth $40.5mil and is paid $50mil. If the option year does vest he ends up with 10 WAR, is worth $45mil, and is paid $60mil (and this is all assuming he is a true 3.0 WAR reliever at this point, which is hard to argue definitively).
The Nats were also supposed to have Prince Fielder by now.