It's no secret that the new regime in Chicago will need time to turn the Cubs around, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that the changes to the draft rules will hamper their progress even further. Both the amateur draft and free-agent market are more difficult for high-revenue teams to exploit, giving Epstein a significant speed bump to deal with. In Boston, Epstein went over-slot to draft core pieces such as Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and other assets used to trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Victor Martinez.
In the short-term, the Cubs need to get as much as possible out of Jeff Samardzija, Anthony Rizzo, and Brett Jackson. For the long-term, they can consider trading Matt Garza for prospects or, go in the other direction and sign the right-hander to an extension. Here's more from Rosenthal..
- If the Brewers wind up falling out of contention, Milwaukee could be an interesting seller at the trade deadline. Potential free agent right-handers Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, and reliever Francisco Rodriguez would all be in high demand if the Crew isn't in contention in late July. The club will have to restock their farm system at some point as they rank near the bottom in MLB.
- Rosenthal opines that the Angels shouldn't hesitate to sign shortstop Erick Aybar to an extension. Many believe that the Halos could let him go and turn to prospect Jean Segura, but the youngster is playing above Class-A for the first time this season and has struggled with injuries in the past. The Angels signed Howie Kendrick to a four-year, $33.5MM extension earlier this offseason.
- A scout following the Padres saw them often in spring training and raves about the team’s future. San Diego is unlikely to sign major free agents but eventually could swing a Mat Latos trade in reverse, using prospects to acquire young impact players. Edinson Volquez, who is earning just $2.2375MM, could have immediate value at this year's trade deadline.
epstein will succeed once soriano, byrd, dempster, and marmols contracts are off the books. Stralin castro is good and will be jimmy rollins esque little less defense, brett jackson, matt szcur, anthony rizzo will be youkilis like, geovany soto, jeff samardzija, matt garza, randy wells and travis wood will be backend rotation guys, and garza could fetch a decent prospect or two depending on whether brewers arms will be available come deadline time.
I dont put too much stock into Ken Rosenthal. Not that he is right or wrong. The Cubs have the same drafting issues as any other team. To say that the Cubs have a tough battle, well so does everyone else. I think the Cubs are in a lot better shape today then 2 seasons ago. They will be fine and in the correct direction.
I think he is just saying that the Cubs would have been able to rebuild through the draft faster. They can sign guys over slot and draft all the guys who fall because of signability issue.
yeah plus he gets 2 yrs of high draft picks and iff josh vitters can rediscover his college form, he fell on a haven. lots of money high draft picks and his complete control…dream situation for him
Vitters didn’t go to college
If the new limits on draft spending rein in what a team can spend on the first ten rounds, doesn’t that at least leave open the door that aggressive clubs to go nuts all over again starting with round 11? They could target the players with signability or health concerns who fell through the cracks of the rigid new system
Couldn’t they?
thats a strategy well have to see. im sure my rays will be employing this
Isn’t there a cap there too?
no…after the 10th round, there’s basically a $100K max on signing bonuses. Anything over $100K would count against the draft pool cap, so they’d need to have money left over from the first 10 rounds to go over that.
Ah, thanks. That clears that up.
I think the padres are going to have a tough time contending until they do something like the mets did with their dimensions…theyll never sign any hitters and their pitchers succeed because of it but they dont blow anybody away…clayton richard is best power arm right now..at least latos was sick and will succeed anywhere….offensively they just need pure athleticism defense and speed and theyre working on that
Leave the dimensions alone. Even if the Padres change the dimensions, they will not be able to compete for the elite sluggers anyway. Pitching, defense, speed and gap hitters is how you will succeed in Petco, or any park for that matter. They have been drafting and trading for players who fit that mold and the they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, don’t change now. Moorad was stanchly against changing the dimensions, I a Padre fan, hope the new owner is just as against it.
That approach failed in Seattle a few years ago…
Well if this idea failed in Seattle, no one else better try it. The issue here is that the entire organization has to buy into the this. From low A all the way up to the Majors, you have to cultivate your players not sign them to huge deals. This blueprint can work, it just isn’t the flashy approach most teams try to use. The ’85 Cardinals, I may be dating myself, made it work and the Padres can too.
“Cultivate your players not sign them to huge deals” Sounds a lot like Moneyball to me…
That may have come across wrong. I meant draft the players that fit your mold and sign your own players, not free agents that usually cost more. The Padres have already started to lock up some of their core players and that is what I meant.
I always agree with locking up homegrown talent but drafting based on that mold would mean not drafting the best player available all the time. In the Padres situation I think they need to draft the best guys available.
i think more day-games is probably a better option for increasing offensive output. the PM marine layer is insane. in 2010 Adrian Gonzalez didn’t hit a single HR past 8pm at petco.
more day games would help with the suppressed HRs and still allow them to take advantage of an athletic core and young pitching.
The only issue with more day games is less attendence I would think. For a small/mid market team every butt they can put in a seat matters. And you don’t have to hit homeruns to score runs. A couple of singles and a stolen base or a triple and a sac fly to score a run is just as exciting if you truly love the game.
“A couple of singles and a stolen base or a triple and a sac fly to score a run.” LOL…String all that together to score a run? Yep, that’s Petco for you.
But not everyone that goes to a game is a die hard, home runs are a way that many people get excited about the games. You need to get a big base to pay for all those costs.
You are right, but every fan likes a win no matter how the team gets it.
Just wondering, where does one get such a statistic? Lol
vin scully! he’s a joy to listen to during away broadcasts.
He must be putting those interns to work!
You must like a lot of boring 1-0 games with number four and five starters. Right field needs to be brought in and destroy the stupid Petco Porch
I agree, teams are always beating us at home-by of course scoring runs, if they can do it we can do it. However I wouldn’t be against keeping or bringing in the fences, but it won’t happen anytime soon until we get this owner situation figured out.
what rosenthal doesn’t mention is that after this season Cubs’ payroll is under $75 mil, if Soto is dealt which i think he will be, it brings it close to 70 m – this with an ownership that hasn’t blinked at spending 125 -135 mil. Not that Theo is going to spend it all in one off-season, but he’s going to have a lot of flexibility to fill holes at corner outfield, third base and pitching, pitching, pitching. This season is extended spring training for Cubs – see what works, who’s worth keeping, see what they have in the minors. It won’t be “years” – I think the Cubs will be contending for the division in ’14, or with some luck and people returning to form (stewart, volstad) possibly ’13.
They need to dump the bad contracts, sign some free agents only when you got a solid base. No need spending money this year or next if you aren’t close, but the year after that, lookout.
its been THREE games and the 3 were vs the defending champs…relax, skippy
Padres will have $20-30 million to spend in offseason. No reason they cant go after 2-3 big free agents to fill key spots in lineup. LF & MI come to mind. Bigger question is who will be available. Padres may also take route of trading prospect for top young players and then sign them long term.
the padres position as buyers could be excellent in the next year or two. they have great organizational depth all around and few holes in their long-term plans.
if they can cement 3b with Gyorko (or Headley long term), then it gives them flexibility to move Rincon and Darnell (who have legit bats). Also, Jesus Guzman could bring serious value from an AL team or an NL team that needs a firstbaseman. With Hundley signed cheap long-term, they can move one or two of their excellent catching prospects (Grandal, Hedges, and Hagerty). They have a plethora of talented rotation and bullpen arms coming up too, which could allow them to move Gregerson, Richard, and Moseley. Street will probably be gone by the deadline, and Volquez either this year or next.With Spangenburg (2B), and Decker/Liriano/Domoromo (RF), coming up and 1B/LF/CF/C/3B fairly set, the only spots they aren’t in a great position to fill internally are SS and potentially another front-line starter to compliment Luebke/Cashner/Stauffer and the prospects.They essentially have about 6-10 moveable prospects, a couple trade deadline pieces, and a few cost-controlled guys that may not fit into the long-term plan.
it looks like they have the ammo to pull off two latos-esque deals, with enough fungible assets to seamlessly restock the farm after.
You have a pretty good idea of what the Padres hould be doing in my opinion. I personally would deal Hundley and Hagerty and keep Grandal and Hedges unless the return is absurd. As you said the one position they don’t have a true prospect at is short and I’m praying that the Angels don’t sign Aybar so he can go to San Diego. He would fit perfectly into their system. From what I’ve heard of Cashner, he could be that front line starter you are talking about if he can stretch his arm out, which Black and Balsley should be able to help him out with.
This team is definately headed in the right direction.