The Orioles are nearing a six-year, $85MM contract extension with center fielder Adam Jones. The deal, which is the largest in Orioles franchise history, will cover his final arbitration season (2013) and five free agent years (2014-18). Here are some notes on and reactions to the deal:
- The deal's a win-win for Jones and the Orioles, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes. Cameron points out that we can expect more walks from Jones as he gains experience and notes that $75MM — the amount Baltimore committed to the center fielder's free agent years — doesn't always buy much on the open market.
- The Orioles could have acquired John Lannan, Drew Storen and Steve Lombardozzi from the Nationals for Jones over winter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (on Twitter). Washington GM Mike Rizzo loves Jones, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports (on Twitter).
- An NL executive says the Orioles did well to extend Jones instead of trading him last offseason, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes (on Twitter).
- MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli had been under the impression that the Orioles would have lost Jones to free agency after 2013 if they had waited until next offseason to discuss an extension (Twitter link).
It’s so big!
The Orioles could have acquired John Lannan, Drew Storen and Steve Lombardozzi
That trade would have been an “Unmitigated Disaster” and I don’t think that would be enough to describe it if that trade had occurred.
Lannan smells.
I like Storen, but he’s hurt
Lombardozzi can’t field.
Other than that it would been a wonderful deal.
I would have personally ran Duquette out of town if he did that. What was Rizzo thinking? Old Dan just fell of the Turnip truck when he offered that deal.
Lombardozzi actually can field. There is a reason he is their “super” util player.
I went to the Nats game this past weekend, and I can say without question that our first year field announcer would have trouble with that last name.
I am a Nats fan and I think that would have been a steal in Nats favor.
What a lousy deal that would’ve been: Lannan is overpriced and is in the minors, Storen is hurt (and the O’s have Jim Johnson), and while Lombardozzi looks good so far, he doesn’t seem to have any power.
Not only is Lannan in the minors, he’s failing badly.
link to baseball-reference.com
Not sure if his performance is simply a reaction to being sent to the minors in the first place, but he is quickly losing however much value he had (apparently enough to be involved in an Adam Jones deal).
I wonder if some degree of that is mental. Injuries, being called down, trade rumors, all have bad effects on that.
I would argue that he was never very good in the first place
From the Fangraphs article, Jones only has to post the following years to be “worth” his contract:
2013: +4.0 WAR
2014: +4.0 WAR
2015: +3.5 WAR
2016: +3.0 WAR
2017: +2.5 WAR
2018: +2.0 WAR
I think he’s likely to do this, with the potential to break out as he’s been doing this year. You don’t need to tell me it’s unsustainable, it doesn’t need to be for his contract to be worth it. When you add in the Oriole losing tax, I’ll take this deal all day.
but I might just be an Oriole homer, so who knows.
Quoted from Wikipedia regarding the WAR stat: “There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sites that provide the statistic, such as Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference, all calculate it differently.”
With no clear way to calculate the statistic, the statistic loses its credibility. WAR means nothing without a set way of calculating the said statistic.
With that out of the way, this is a great deal for the Orioles. Now, lock up Wieters long term and trade for another starting pitcher and we’ll be good to go.
Well said.
I think the O’s should have locked up Wieters before Jones though, but hopefully they lock up both.
Thats why people have to specify if they are using rWAR (Baseball-Reference) or fWAR (Fangraphs), etc. Personally I think rWAR is the best of the bunch.
Fangraphs has a very specific way they calculate WAR, and I’m referencing the Fangraphs article. Just because there are different variations on the statistic does mean that the entire body of work is worthless.
And we’re using Wikipedia to discredit Fangraphs? What? (don’t make me edit that entry … )
I agree, we can’t afford to wait with Wieters. With his semi-breakout last year, and Boras as his agent, we’ll never meet his asking price if he smells FA.
I’d wait on the SP until Britton comes back. He could be an important piece. If he struggles, I’d go after Oswalt and save our limited trade pieces (read pieces we should be giving up) if we sustain this winning to pick up 3B help at the deadline.
Wieters is the big piece to build this team around IMO. Hopefully the O’s try to find him a secondary position so they can rotate him between for example catcher-first base-DH. That way he’ll last longer and the risk of him ending up like Mauer is much less likely. Wieters is IMO a potential multi MVP, so take care of his health is a big priority.
“With no clear way to calculate the statistic, the statistic loses its credibility.”
unless of course you are willing to work harder than wikipedia
An OK starter, a good super utility player unless a team (say, the A’s for instance…) doesn’t have a decent 3B available then he’d be a starter, and a really good reliever all for a quality CF (who’s since improved his stock juuuuust a bit) under control for a couple years
yeah, I guess the Orioles made the right choice
Great deal for the O’s..an average value of 14.6M. With what Jones is doing now and what he can do, in addition to the ludicrous contracts being handed out today, this a good deal.
I hope the O’s do well. Lock up Weiters next.
Good deal, thank god those high estimates were false. This could be a discount if Jones can play like a cross between 2011-2012 (So far) for the rest of the deal, and I think he will.
This is a great deal. Compared with the amount of money that has been given to crap the last few years, I cant believe there are all these naysayers out there. Good for the Orioles.
I think there’s a lot of healthy sceptisism towards big deals nowadays, compared to just a few years ago.
Then GM’s would get hailed for landing players, fans not really examining the long term consequences of the deal.
But with deals like Barry Zito, Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, Vernon Wells, and many others, every new big contract should be examined thoroughly.
This Adam Jones deal looks a bit suspicious, but I have great faith in Buck Showalter’s influence in that organisation, and I’m sure he’s made a recommendation on the future qualities and potential abilities on Adam Jones.
But a 15 mil guy is someone you build a team around, and he cannot be a bust.
*14.1 mil guy
Albert Bell….always that possibility.
As a Baseball fan I can’t envision a more competitive division than the AL East. I mean you’ve got teams like the Red Sox and Yankees who will always find ways to stick around, an organizational abomination in the Rays, and two up-and-coming teams such as the O’s and Jays. It really can’t get much better than this.
Thank you Erik Bedard
Not worth it
Now give that to bmac
If the O’s are signing Adam Jones for the player he is right now, then they’re in a lot of trouble. Because he’s been lucky with the fly balls and what not.
Then that would be comparable to the terrible Jayson Werth/Carl Crawford contracts of late.But we have to assume that O’s knows their player better than any of us, and if they see that Adam Jones has the potential to develop his plate discipline, then this is a good contract for both sides.
As it stands, it looks very player friendly IMO.
If he stays the player he is now he’d be worth a ton. 50 HR CF who plays at least average defense?
I think it’s a fair deal for both sides. I bet he would’ve gotten $100 million on the open market
You shouldn’t use 1 season to judge him for now and the future. I’m pretty sure Pujols is not going to finish with a .625 OPS this year.
However, I think the extension is a fair one IF Jones continues to progress the way he has. Time will tell.
Did you just call Adam Jones a 50 HR Center Fielder? Really?
The stats suggest he’s not gonna stay the player he is now.
And his defense is IMO very good, so that’s not the issue here.
The issue is that’s he’s been getting lucky a whole lot. The O’s may have great projections for him though, that article on Fangraphs suggest that Jones walk rate will improve. Which it has to if he’s gonna be a superstar.
You’re remark that Adam Jones would’ve gotten 100 mil on the open market is at best naive.
I view this as a contract no other club than the O’s could take on. For the other clubs it was simply too much risk.
The O’s knows the player enough that it may not be a big risk.
We’ll find out, I wish the O’s the best of luck, it would be really cool to see Adam Jones blossom into a great ball player.
It wouldn’t be the first time an Orioles CF hit 50 homers out of nowhere
You are obsessed with trying to prove Jones isn’t worth his contract because his HR/Flyball rate is high in 40 games this year.
watch yourself!
I meant it as a compliment. Not too many teams can have the type of payroll they have and compete on a consistent basis.