In all likelihood, the wait is over. Teams can now call prospects up to the MLB level with the expectation that the players will not obtain super two status three winters from now. While there’s no way of predicting where the super two cutoff will fall in 2014, recent history suggests it’s now safe for teams to promote their best young prospects.
If a player gets called up tomorrow and never returns to the minor leagues, he’ll have two years and 110 days of service following the 2014 season (110 days remain in the 2012 championship season). Chances are that won’t be enough to qualify for super two status; the cutoff has been at least two years and 122 days in each of the past six seasons. Next winter, when baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement takes effect, the cutoff is expected to sit in familiar territory: two years and 134 days.
Heavily-hyped prospects such as Matt Wieters, Giancarlo Stanton and Stephen Strasburg were all called up around this time in recent years, and service time appeared to be a factor in each case. Now Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Mike Montgomery, Manny Banuelos, Brett Jackson, James Paxton and Matt Harvey are among the prospects who could safely be called up to MLB. Even if one of these players were to debut tomorrow, he wouldn't be on track for super two status. Prospects who already have MLB service time, such as Anthony Rizzo and Jacob Turner, are on different timelines, as I detailed this spring.
Players who qualify for super two status go to arbitration four times, instead of the usual three. In many cases, this means the player earns millions more than he otherwise would have.
Service time is just one element of a team's decision-making process. Plus, a substantial proportion of top prospects get optioned to the minor leagues early in their careers. The player's readiness and the team's needs generally trump service time considerations, but there's no denying they're a factor.
Might add Iglesias also if Boston decides they want a glove at SS. Iglesias has negligible service time so far.. Like 2 weeks last season total.
No mention of Wil Myers or Jake Odorizzi, but you DO include Montgomery….did you just pull names out of a hat?
Considering Banuelos made the list….yes. Yes he did. Which is honestly what he should have done.
Banuelos won’t get called up yet, they don’t need him, and he hasn’t been good in AAA.
He is behind phelps currently for a starter injury relief.
Also mentions Shelby Miller who is getting destroyed in AAA
And where is Travis d’Arnaud who is raking at AAA? He should be getting the call soon…. no?
Hopefully we get to see both Paxton/Hultzen!
Paxton only pitched 99 IP last year. He could take it easy. A little more AA for him this year, then some AAA, then shut down after about 145 IP would be my choice.
The way Shelby Miller is pitching right now, it would be a major surprise if he got called up anytime before September, and I wouldn’t even guarantee that.
A few top prospects struggling mightily in AAA…Shelby Miller, Jacob Turner, Martin Perez. Guess we’ll wait a little longer to see them make it to the big show.
… Say what? You only have to wait until Thursday to see Jacob Turner in the show. He hasn’t been struggling at AAA at all, either.
Nick Franklin, Derek Norris?
Yea, I am a minor league junkie right now because of my 22-keeper dynasty league that I am in is loaded with minor league talent. Banuelos was on my roster and he is hurt so forget him. Same with Mike Montgomery and Shelby Miller due to ineffectiveness. I have Brett Jackson on my roster and it would be interesting to see him in Chicago but I think that they are going to wait until September because of Campana and his K rate.
I also have Wil Myers, Nick Franklin, Jurickson Profar, Billy Hamilton, Julio Teheran, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and Tyler Skaggs on this budding dynasty team (they will join Mesoraco, Goldschmidt, Middlebrooks, Chisenhall, and Andrelton Simmons as a shortstop hedge for next year in case Nick Franklin is not in Seattle next year and if HanRam doesn’t keep his SS eligibility).
Myers, Jackson and Teheran are locks to be in the bigs for the beginning of next year and will be with the parent team come this September. Franklin, Skaggs and possibly Cole will probably be with their parent teams in 2013 with Franklin being the most likely (Brendan Ryan? really?).
Profar, Hamilton, Skaggs, and Taillon are more than likely to have their rookie seasons in 2014.