Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- At the age of 28, B.J. Upton will be the youngest outfielder on the open market this winter. Rosenthal believes that Upton figures to land a deal of at least five years and virtually every NL East team could pursue him. The Marlins in particular could show strong interest as Dan Jennings was the Rays' scouting director when they drafted him in 2002. Earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com checked in with four MLB execs who had varied opinions on what kind of deal Upton will get this offseason.
- Rafael Soriano could opt-out of his three-year, $35MM deal at the end of this season in pursuit of a larger deal, but that might not be a wise choice. That would call for Soriano to forfeit his $14MM salary in 2013 and the Yankees would definitely make him a qualifying offer (around $13MM) that would require a team to give up draft pick compensation to sign him. Historically, that has hurt the value of free agent relievers.
- The Rangers had little interest in parting with Mike Olt at the deadline but some rival execs think that they'll be more willing to move him this offseason. While the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and may like Olt to be a part of their offensive core going forward, he could have tremendous value as many teams are in search of a strong third base option.
- Don't be surprised if the Marlins talk to Nationals third base coach Bo Porter again in the event that they fire Ozzie Guillen. Earlier this week, the Astros met with Porter, making him the first person to interview for the managerial vacancy.
Ken Rosenthal. If the Yankees are “definitely” going to make him a qualifying offer, 13M + HIS $1.5M BUYOUT > 14M…
With Bourn struggling in the second half, it might have brought his price down 2-3 million per year, maybe the Braves do have a shot now
I think Texas will look this next season…
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C: Napoli
1B: Moreland/Olt
2B: Kinsler
SS: Profar
3B: Beltre
LF: Murphy
CF: Gentry
RF: Upton (traded for Andrus)
DH: Cruz
the lineup now is better
Essentially this is taking out Josh, Elvis, and MY and putting in Profar, Upton, and Gentry, of course the current lineup is better
Well yeah, they still have Hamilton right now.
His offense is terrible, That makes it hard justifying 14M aav. He is 28, but if you sign him for 5 years by the end you could have a very bad player. Once he slows down he will have absolutely no use, he is a toolsy guy that can’t hit.
upton is an above-average hitter. 11% better than league average this season and 10% for his career
compared to the average centerfielder, he’s even better. here is the complete list of centerfielders who have hit better than upton over the last three seasons:
hamilton
kemp
mccutchen
granderson
But none of those players are sporting a .303 obp. And aside from pena, who is having an atrocious season, whereas upton is having a normal season, all of them have higher slg. That is made worse that aside from hanley they are all significantly slower runners. Which means that alot of his doubles and triples will be singles and doubles in a few years.
Among active CF I would put Mccutchen, Kemp, hamilton, Trout, Fowler, Ajax, Jones, Cespedes, Granderson, and span ahead of him. They also all have higher war besides granderson, who still is higher for past 3 years. Rios is having a better year than him, but over the next 3 years he is worse player. Within 2 years is good chance brantley and possibly maybin pass him.
He really has not been good at making contact. He has really fallen off alot since 2007/2008; in which years he was a very good young player.
I think he still has value, but I really have a hard time valuing him at $14M aav for 5 years at his current rate.