The Orioles' season came to a close tonight as the Yankees took Game 5 behind an impressive complete game outing from C.C. Sabathia. Despite the disappointing exit coupled with heartbreak of Game 3, it was a remarkable season for a team that was never expected to win 93 games and qualify for the postseason. More out of Baltimore and other items from the Eastern divisions..
- Orioles managing partner Peter Angelos said that the club has yet to discuss a contract extension with Buck Showalter, but he sounds ready to have those talks if the manager does, writes Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com. Showalter is under contract with the O's through the 2013 season.
- The Nationals opened talks with Adam LaRoche on a multi-year deal at some point during the season to keep him from free agency, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com. However, nothing is close at this time. LaRoche has a $10MM for 2013 but has made it clear that he would like to stay put in Washington.
- The Yankees are looking for the right investor to buy out some of their partners in the highly-profitable YES Network, according to Richard Sandomir of the New York Times. Current partners like Goldman Sachs and Providence Equity usually sell their investments in companies rather quickly, but have held on because of the station's incredible success.
I wonder where the Orioles’ 11 games above their Pythagorean W-L ranks…
It might be a shock for Duquette next season, though. I seem to recall him saying the record justified no need to increase payroll? Math catches up to you eventually. Usually. Unless you’re Isaac Newton maybe.
everyone keeps saying things like that as if divergence from pythagorean
was pure mathematical happenstance. i’ve yet to see that assumption
actually argued for though. care to try and direct me to such…
From between June 23rd and I think September 29th (+/- a day) their total season run differential was NEGATIVE. Only when they were beating up on my team did they finally get it back into the positives for the first time since the middle of June.
Also, that many one-run wins thing was pretty anomalous. Realistically, your winning% in one-run games should be about the same as your winning percentage in any given game, whereas the O’s played .763 ball in one-run games, compared to .516 in all other games.
These are what contribute to that huge divergence (Pythagorean Win/Loss is based on run differential, after all). The reason that big of a difference is so significant is because the 29 other teams all fell between -5 and +6 compared to their. Then suddenly the Orioles beat their by ELEVEN? That’s an outlying point. An anomaly. Not something you expect to repeat.
They didn’t play the Yankees like they were a “fluke” team. They have high end talent, even more true when Bundy joins their ranks.
They kind of did. Their offense was completely anemic. They got lucky that the Yankees were having a similar problem.
Also, come on, five game sample? Any team can beat any other team 2 games out of 5.
They just have a stud bullpen. That’s why they are able to win so many close games.
Here’s to the Tigers crushing the Yanks!
On that last point, we can agree, friend
It wasn’t a 5 game sample, it was a 23 game sample that was played to a record of 12-13 with a -2 run difference.
but what i still haven’t seemed demonstrated is that run differential is definitively determinative of record. i see that there’s a high correlation. but when people say things like “math catches up to you” that strikes me (as someone who’s admittedly not a statistician) as a distortion of the story stats can tell. it is not luck per se that causes a difference between the record you expect from run differential and actual record. that’s frankly insulting to all of the tiny real world baseball things players and perhaps more importantly managers do. but i see the pythagorean described as a way to measure the influence of luck on record all the time. that seems cockeyed to me. bullpen and the subtleties of its usage seem a fine way to begin explaining the admittedly outlying nature of the disparity in the o’s case. but i want more. what are the highest all time divergences? and how often have a top layer (like what +/-8 wins?) happened? is there any easy way to generate this list?
Forget all the numbers and metrics. All you need to know is that Buck is a magician who is adept with smoke and mirrors.
I will give Showalter credit, but don’t leave out Duquette for one moment who showed what a magician he is with picking over supposed leftovers.
If Angelos will now allow him to make some moves.. Anibal Sanchez would be really sweet as one.. That team could be potentially better next season and they have the prospects coming up, plus someone who also knows a bit about drafting and especially the IFA market running the ship now.
Orioles are my front runner to win the AL East next season, they have a HUGE age advantage over NY, offense over TB, with Boston and Toronto rebuilding. Hopefully Angelos realizes this. is his chance.
I think it will catch up to them. They only scored 15 more runs than Tampa, yet their pitching is not nearly as good, allowing 128 more runs in. Sure they are improved over the 93 wins of last year, but i don’t think they will be able to put up 95 wins in 2013.
I remember when the O’s hired DD in the offseason how you said to just give him some time & he’ll get them to the playoffs, that was really fast!
Don’t forget the other part tho.. he likes his “castoffs” and they paid off this year in spades, but he has a tendency to get carried away with them. Showalter is a brilliant manager. Stern and intelligent. Better than many (all) of the people Boston hired while Duquette was GM and not all were his choice either..
Showalter should be able to control the amount of fringe players brought onboard, or at least make sure they are kept off of the 25 man roster until they are needed.
That was the only weakness ever noticed myself with Duquette, well that and he’s not good with the media constantly harassing him.. Then who is?
Hopefully Angelos gives him a pretty much free reign to develop the Orioles farm system as much as he can. He is a genius on the IFA front and should be able to improve the Rule 4 area as well.
Baltimore is primed for a resurgence now and the old powers should take heed.. This is a Tampa in the making with money.
Granted I think the math has a place and I think you in particular are incredible adept at using the numbers well (as one of the most intelligent posters on these boards), however, if this year taught us anything, its that the numbers DO lie. Baseball just can’t be predicted no matter how good the formula is.
I mean, obviously what the O’s did was possible, unless we live in a weird paradox world xP But I’m just citing these things as reasons that I doubt that we’ll see a repeat season. I’d expect the Orioles to finish a little above .500 next year as currently structured. Maybe in the 84-86 win range?
Can think of it partly as the relation between ERA and xFIP. ERA may show how they did one year, but xFIP is the best indicator of how they will do in future seasons. Just like predictions based on runs scored/ runs allowed are better predictors of future performance rather than w/l one year, but don’t necessarily play out in the current season.
That’s a good way of putting it
This is the first season in 15 i was way low on my win prediction, so I’m not even going to try for next year. I will say that Showalter tends to loss a few wins from 2nd to 3rd year so we’ll see. Angelos wants to win now.
Yeah, but you have to remember we had several low-cost mid-season acquisitions / callups that could potentially return next year, who made a huge difference in our talent level. Specifically:
– McLouth (1.3 WAR in 55 games) replaced our rotating LF platoon (-0.3 WAR combined)
– Machado (1.3 WAR in 51 games) replaced Betemit (0.7 WAR in 102 games)
– Tillman, Gonzalez, Saunders, and Britton (combined 3.8 WAR in 48 starts) replaced the likes of Hunter (-0.6 WAR in 20 starts) and Matusz (0.3 WAR in 16 starts).
McLouth could easily be a 3+ WAR player over a full season (compared to the replacement level junk we had after Reimold went down). Machado, in his first full year in the pros, could potentially improve to 4-5 WAR. And a rotation featuring Tillman and Gonzalez in particular looks a lot better than the one featuring Arrieta and Hunter at the beginning of the year (Matusz in the pen doesn’t look too bad either).
“McLouth could easily be a 3+ WAR player over a full season. sorry this is far from true. The guy struggled to put a war of over .2 the past 2 years even if his short time with the o’s wasnt a fluke it he isnt easily a 3 war player. None of those pitchers have really proven anything either,
If Nate NcLouth at this point in his career ever plays 3+ WAR, I’ll eat my hat. Closest he ever was to that was 2.2, and that was when he was 26. There’s a reason he didn’t have a job before the O’s picked him up.
The Orioles’ situation is going to be pretty tricky going forward—all of the numbers say that the Orioles should have been nowhere near the postseason, but Showalter had his team overachieving all season. They made it far, but they do have big holes to fill, primarily in the starting rotation (the bullpen was an absolute rock this season). Whatever Jim Duquette does, he cannot stand pat.
As for Showalter himself, if he wins Manager of the Year (I expect it to be very close with Bob Melvin), that could easily price him out of Baltimore after next season – the only difference here being that Showalter was around to see the fruits of his labor, unlike his stints with the Yankees and the Diamondbacks (the latter of which began two years before the team started play).
Dan Duquette. Yeah, I’m being that guy. I just need to win at something tonight, so this counts as something at least.
The O’s definitely need to make moves. No way they go into 2013 with the same roster and win big. Another proven starting pitcher (Saunders proved how important that is), shore up the infield, get a solid backup for Wieters, etc.
Why I mentioned Sanchez earlier.. lower cost (by far) over Grienke and proven solid. Backup catcher, who could take over for a time if Weiters goes down? Shoppach, if the NYM let him get away and Shop doesn’t go looking for more of a FT gig elsewhere.
Shoppach, without the drama, would be my choice. Someone who can prevent Wieters from having to go 140-145 games a year.
Which numbers would those be? The 93 Wins. The +7 run differential which maps to 83 Wins which does not qualify as nowhere near. Keep in mind they turned over 3/5 of their starting roation from when they were getting blown out. Matusz, Hunter, Arrietta as starters and some others. Zack Greinke and a Kelly Johnson would be a great offseason.
Great season O’s fans. Nothing to be ashamed of.