The Giants are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Buster Posey ($5.9MM), Gregor Blanco ($1.3MM), Joaquin Arias ($800K), Emmanuel Burriss ($600K)
- Second time: Sergio Romo ($3.6MM), Jose Mijares ($1.6MM)
- Third time: Brian Wilson ($8.5MM), Santiago Casilla ($5.4MM), Clay Hensley ($1.3MM)
- Fourth time: Hunter Pence ($13.8MM)
Wilson represents a high-profile non-tender candidate for the World Champions. The closer, 31 in March, had Tommy John surgery in April. Though he missed most of the 2012 season, a salary decrease is unlikely, hence the $8.5MM figure. It'd be a large commitment for a reliever coming off major elbow surgery, even if Wilson manages to beat the typical one-year recovery and be ready for Opening Day. The Giants would still have Romo, Casilla, and Javier Lopez in next year's bullpen, though if they cut Wilson and lose Jeremy Affeldt via free agency they might feel compelled to make an addition.
Casilla, and especially Romo, make for a formidable pair at the back end of the bullpen. The Giants also have arbitration eligible relievers in Mijares and Hensley. Mijares was solid following the Giants' August waiver claim, while Hensley is a non-tender candidate.
The Giants have a few utility types up for arbitration in Blanco, Arias, and Burriss. Blanco and Arias seem safe, while Burriss was on and off the team's 40-man roster in 2012 and will be let go.
In Pence, the Giants have the most expensive arbitration eligible player in all of baseball. A former Super Two, the right fielder took a larger-than-usual salary leap by winning his 2011 arbitration case. For some reason, the Astros and Phillies never hammered out an extension with Pence and he's continued going year-to-year. He was a trade deadline acquisition for the Giants, and unlike his Phillies' post-deadline stint in '11, Pence struggled. The Giants don't seem to be considering non-tendering him; instead they'll hope for a return to career levels in 2013.
Posey was the NL's Comeback Player of the Year after missing most of 2011 due to a major ankle injury. He's also an MVP candidate, an award that would further boost his arbitration salary. We don't project Posey to sniff Ryan Howard's first-time arbitration record of $10MM, but the Super Two backstop will set a first-time record for catchers and would get expensive in a hurry going year-to-year. Carlos Gonzalez signed the biggest extension for a player with less than three years service, a seven-year, $80MM deal. Since he's a Super Two player, Posey would deserve about that much on a six-year contract. However, Posey's agents at CAA Sports could have a $100MM+ deal in their sights, assuming an extension is on the table for both parties.
Assuming the Giants tender contracts to only Posey, Casilla, Romo, Mijares, Blanco, and Arias, they're looking at an estimated $18.6MM for six arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
I don’t think the giants can let pagan or affeldt walk away. They can obviously afford them and it would be pretty disappointing to see them leave.
I like what Pagan and Affeldt have done for the team, but this is one case where Pagan needs to show some loyalty. He’s been nothing but a scrub and extra OF for the majority of his career and he suddenly hit lightning in a bottle. To do the team dirty where everything came together for you would be shameful. If he wants to stay at a reduced price, they should keep him. It’s a good fit for both sides.
If he wants to milk it for every dollar he can get though, let him leave. He won’t be worth it, he’ll probably regress to old form and sabotage his new team, teach them a lesson for overpaying, and the Giants do have a knack for finding hidden gems. They’ll just have to do it again.
They should lock up Posey on a Cain-like contract. Pay the man!
I see posey getting an extension this winter. I’m sure he’ll get over 100mm but for how many years?
I think they should wait on Posey. He is going to be expensive no matter what. And he is going to be a Giant no matter what. This team has his back, this manager has his back and everybody knows it.
Financially i dont think it makes sense to pay him at one of his highest points in value or stock. He had a breakout year. He still isnt running 100%. I would want to see another year and also want to see if he decides to stay at catcher, as i have heard rumblings about moving him, although i think those will be canned now that we won the WS AGAIN! But i think it makes sense to pay him arb this year and then see how he does next year, when he is healthier. His stock literally could not be higher than it is right now, i dont understand paying that much money right now when he has ankle problems and there has been talk about changing positions. Lets face it catchers get paid more. Not trying to underplay what he means. I just think we should wait one more year. Dude is going to get paid, he deserves it, but financially it makes sense to me to wait.
Not a Cain contract yet, but Braun/Longoria definitely.
I’m surprised that Pence ended up going year to year. To me, I’d want him back, but not at $13.8M; I’d let him go and re-sign him if his price falls below $10M. However, then you have to retain Pagan. Brian Wilson, with Sergio Romo now the closer, will have to look for a deal elsewhere.
As for Posey, I agree that it may be time to talk at least a 4-year contract to get him through all of his arbitration-eligible years if Posey is a Super-2.
Pence is paid way too much. WS or no, there is no way I’m paying him that much. If he wants to come back at 10M, sure. Otherwise, let him walk and find another replacement. Ross, Swisher, Bourne, Hamilton, Victorino, or Ludwick come to mind.
Ross had his chance; Bourne will want a long-term contract; Hamilton will cost 2x as much & want a long-term contract; Swisher will want a long-term contract…. Point is, take your chance on Pence for 1 year without committing to another albatross contract
I agree with both points. Pence is WAYY overpaid. He does not in any way deserve 13 mil. But he will be entering a contract year. He is athletic and has potential. Instead of signing somebody long term, ride it out with Pence and pay for the one year and hope he has monster contract year. I have no idea how he hit almost 300 while with Houston. I dont see it.
Yup, let him earn a 3yr deal like Pagan did (even if not with the Giants). The better Pence plays, the better the Giants play
I’m surprised by Casilla’s big jump. His salary was only $2.2m last year, and after one year of closing, he gets over a $3m raise. Any ideas why??
I dont understand this either. That is way too high of a jump in salary. Also Mijares definetely needs to get arbitration.
Maybe because he was the closer for most of the season or got the most saves for the team? Closers tend to get overvalued in arbitration as well as free agency.
Wilson won’t be non-tendered. Clearly the right decision is to let him go, but Sabean will do what he does and keep his popular players. Keeping him is a complete joke, IMO. Sabean really should be fired after he tenders Wilson a huge contract.
You want Sabean fired for something he hasn’t done?? 2 World Series in 3 years & $1.25 gets you a bag of potato chips I guess
It pays to have Wilson on the team. He’s such a marketable player taking the chance for one year at 8.5mm is absolutely worth it.
At 8.5 million? No.
But a non-tender and value contract? Yes.
They could just pay him and see how the season goes, but you could ask him yourself and he would say he doesn’t deserve it.
If he has any real loyalty to this team (he should, they already gave him a 2 year deal that was more than fair), they should be able to non tender him and bring him back with a $3M base value contract with incentives to bring it to $8.5 or more.
Affeldt might expendable because Kontos is effective against LHs and can pitch 2 innings if necessary. If Kontos adds another outpitch like a change, cutter, or split he will be even that more effective. His slider while not as great as Romo’s it’s still very good.
As for Wilson I think they should non-tender him and sign him to a value based 2 year contract. Of course nothing too crazy. If they do and he comes back healthy that’s just another piece to an already great bullpen.
The only way I see Posey signing that 100+ million contract is if the Giants somehow buy 1 or 2 FA years.
I think they need to pay Affeldt. You are probably right that he is going to get overpaid a little bit. But we are the Giants. We have won 2 WS in 3 years. We have money coming off the books. SIgning somebody like Affeldt who gives so much flexibility out of the bullpen makes sense to me. This team needs to spend more if they find the right fit especially for the smaller contracts. For the big free agents they also need to make a splash. But they need to be a lot more attention to detail in those deals.
I can see your argument for Affeldt but that 6-7 million or can be used to sign another FA or pay a current player.
Remember, the Giants have Mijares and Lopez now and they both can neutralize lefties. Kontos and Casilla can essentially be a bridge gap to Romo. Although I still have my reservations about Romo as a full season closer.
Which is why I would still do the closer by committee carousel for the 9th. I could be proven wrong next season but with the way Romo’s knees act up sometimes and how he throws his slider in my opinion he shouldn’t be overused in a season.
They do have two very good lefties. And i also agree with you on Romo. He needs to be used correctly. Teams will adjust to him (they already have in the West) and i am not convinced he should be a full time closer.
What i dont agree with is the 6-7 million used somewhere else. The Giants in my opinion need to start spending money. It needs to be spent wisely of course. But if they see a player that fits their team and is rare to come by then they need to break out the checkbook and sign them. They have the money, attendance is through the roof, they got more cash from the WS. They have the money neccesarry. I am not saying they should start signing Barry Zito and Rowand all over again. But if they identify a piece that will fit this team and help in a lot of ways they need to pull the trigger. Money should not be the reason why they dont make moves.
Also in a perfect world Kontos and Casilla could get the job done i agree with that. But Affeldt only helps. He has the best arm of the entire bunch, barring maybe Casilla.
I think the Giants need to re sign Affeldt. This is a team in the Giants, that has the luxury of re signing their own guys. They are flush with cash. They won a WS twice now in 3 years. They have attendance out of control, merch out of control. They need to re sign guys like Affeldt and Scutaro. This division is going to be a fight going forward. Re sign guys like Affeldt and Scutaro who are not going to be getting blockbuster huge deals. THis team can afford it. I know it might not be the most efficient way of spending money. But we are not the TB Rays. We can afford to spend a little extra to keep guys that are important to our success.
Pagan i can understand letting go, because he is asking for such a big contract and a lot of years. Those are the contracts that need to be given extra thought. And really the Giants probably shouldn’t re sign him unless they get a very good deal. On top of that defensively he does not fit this park very well. His
defense lets a lot of balls fall in that shouldn’t which hikes up the ERA
of the staff. We need a top flight defensive CF in my opinion for this park. I think a guy like Victorino would really help this team. He is probably going to be cheaper coming off a bad year and he is a good teammate and a great defensive player.
But spending a little extra to get guys that are part of the fabric of the team makes sense. And they do need to make some moves on the FA market. Those moves need to be done more carefully. But this Giant team has a lot of money and it is not slowing down. This division is going to be a dogfight and there is no reason not to step up to the table and spend the money to get some players that fit our mold if they are out there. Maybe there aren’t guys out there that fit. That is fine then. But money should not be a problem, if they identify a guy that will fit and help this team they need to spend the money. Especially with the contracts coming off the board and to get Posey some protection in the lineup.
I doubt the Giants pay Brian Wilson all that money. The bearded cheerleader isnt worth 8.5 large.
Most likely they decline and work out a 1 yr 3-4 mill deal.
It’s time to sever ties with Manny Burriss for good