Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 12 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
The service time figures, listed in parentheses below, are official. However, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Onto the numbers…
Angels (7)
- Griffin Canning (3.075): $1.1MM
- Luis Rengifo (3.043): $2.4MM
- Jaime Barria (3.035): $1.2MM
- Chad Wallach (3.030): $800K
- Jared Walsh (3.010): $2.7MM
- Taylor Ward (2.164): $2.9MM
- Patrick Sandoval (2.149): $2.8MM
Astros (9)
- Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM
- Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM
- Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM
- Josh James (3.110): $800K
- Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM
- Jose Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM
- Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM
- Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K
- Mauricio Dubon (2.162): $1.2MM
Athletics (6)
- Tony Kemp (5.098): $3.9MM
- Deolis Guerra (4.071): $900K
- Austin Pruitt (4.055): $1.2MM
- Ramon Laureano (3.165): $3.6MM
- Sean Murphy (3.029): $3.5MM
- Paul Blackburn (3.018): $1.9MM
Blue Jays (13)
- Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
- Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
- Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
- Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
- Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
- Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
- Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
- Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
- Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
- Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM
Braves (6)
- Guillermo Heredia (5.112): $1.1MM
- A.J. Minter (4.154): $5MM
- Max Fried (4.148): $12.2MM
- Mike Soroka (4.122): $2.8MM
- Tyler Matzek (4.019): $1.8MM
- Silvino Bracho (3.099): $900K
Brewers (18)
- Hunter Renfroe (5.165): $11.2MM
- Brent Suter (5.161): $3.1MM
- Victor Caratini (5.051): $2.8MM
- Luis Perdomo (5.034): $1MM
- Brandon Woodruff (4.161): $11MM
- Matt Bush (4.132): $2MM
- Willy Adames (4.105): $9.2MM
- Trevor Gott (4.057): $1.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (4.049): $11.4MM
- Eric Lauer (4.033): $5.2MM
- Jandel Gustave (4.027): $900K
- Adrian Houser (4.010): $3.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (4.004): $5.3MM
- Luis Urias (3.120): $4.3MM
- Hoby Milner (3.068): $1.1MM
- Devin Williams (3.056): $3.2MM
- Mike Brosseau (3.031): $1.2MM
- Keston Hiura (3.009): $2MM
Cardinals (11)
- Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
- Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
- Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
- Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
- Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
- Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
- Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
- Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
- Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
- Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM
- Genesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MM
Cubs (10)
- Ian Happ (5.036): $10.6MM
- Steven Brault (4.167): $1.7MM
- Franmil Reyes (4.115): $6MM
- Rowan Wick (3.114): $1.5MM
- Alec Mills (3.097): $800K
- Brad Wieck (3.085): $800K
- Nico Hoerner (3.014): $2.2MM
- Codi Heuer (3.000): $800K
- Nick Madrigal (2.164): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (2.145): $1.7MM
Diamondbacks (9)
- Caleb Smith (5.077): $2.7MM
- Keynan Middleton (5.023): $1.1MM
- Carson Kelly (4.161): $4.1MM
- Christian Walker (4.124): $7.3MM
- Reyes Moronta (4.111): $2MM
- Jordan Luplow (4.108): $2MM
- Zac Gallen (3.100): $4.5MM
- Josh Rojas (2.152): $2.4MM
- Daulton Varsho (2.128): $2.8MM
Dodgers (12)
- Cody Bellinger (5.160): $18.1MM
- Julio Urias (5.117): $13.7MM
- Walker Buehler (4.168): $8.1MM
- Caleb Ferguson (4.088): $1.1MM
- Yency Almonte (3.143): $1MM
- Will Smith (3.090): $5.2MM
- Dustin May (3.059): $1.4MM
- Trayce Thompson (3.010): $1.7MM
- Edwin Rios (3.003): $1.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (2.167): $1.2MM
- Tony Gonsolin (2.152): $3.5MM
- Evan Phillips (2.136): $1.4MM
Giants (13)
- Jarlin Garcia (5.114): $2.4MM
- Scott Alexander (5.080): $1.1MM
- John Brebbia (5.078): $1.9MM
- Jakob Junis (5.002): $3.3MM
- Austin Slater (4.147): $2.7MM
- J.D. Davis (4.137): $3.8MM
- Jharel Cotton (3.162): $1.1MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (3.128): $5.7MM
- Zack Littell (3.067): $900K
- Logan Webb (3.044): $4.8MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (3.035): $1.4MM
- Tyler Rogers (3.034): $1.8MM
- Thairo Estrada (2.169): $2.4MM
Guardians (9)
- Luke Maile (5.148): $1.3MM
- Amed Rosario (5.062): $9MM
- Shane Bieber (4.097): $10.7MM
- Anthony Gose (3.139): $800K
- Cal Quantrill (3.132): $6MM
- Josh Naylor (3.1287): $3.5MM
- Zach Plesac (3.086): $2.9MM
- Aaron Civale (3.058): $2.2MM
- James Karinchak (2.169): $1.4MM
Marlins (12)
- Joey Wendle (5.088): $5.4MM (Marlins hold a $6.3MM mutual option and $75K buyout that will first need to be dealt with)
- Garrett Cooper (5.053): $4.1MM
- Dylan Floro (5.053): $4.2MM
- Brian Anderson (5.031): $5.2MM
- Jacob Stallings (4.149): $3.3MM
- Pablo Lopez (4.093): $5.6MM
- Tanner Scott (4.059): $2.7MM
- Elieser Hernandez (4.051): $1.8MM
- Jon Berti (3.168): $2.4MM
- Cole Sulser (3.028): $1MM
- Jeff Brigham (3.010): $800K
- Jesus Luzardo (2.165): $2MM
Mariners (11)
- Tom Murphy (5.092): $1.9MM
- Diego Castillo (4.118): $2.9MM
- Paul Sewald (4.072): $3.6MM
- Ryan Borucki (4.066): $1.1MM
- Casey Sadler (4.035): $1.025MM
- Dylan Moore (4.000): $2MM
- Erik Swanson (3.096): $1.4MM
- Luis Torrens (3.091): $1.2MM
- Ty France (3.089): $4.7MM
- Abraham Toro (2.149): $1.4MM
- Kyle Lewis (2.146): $1.2MM
Mets (8)
- Daniel Vogelbach (4.138): $2.9MM (Mets can bypass arbitration by exercising a $1.5MM club option)
- Tomas Nido (4.089): $1.6MM
- Dominic Smith (4.081): $4MM
- Jeff McNeil (4.069): $6.2MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.067): $1.15MM
- Drew Smith (4.034): $1.2MM
- Pete Alonso (4.000): $15.9MM
- Luis Guillorme (3.167): $1.5MM
Nationals (10)
- Carl Edwards Jr. (5.169): $1.6MM
- Luke Voit (4.169): $8.2MM
- Erick Fedde (4.099): $3.6MM
- Victor Robles (4.033): $2.5MM
- Tanner Rainey (3.127): $1.5MM
- Hunter Harvey (3.047): $1MM
- Victor Arano (3.022): $1MM
- Lane Thomas (3.014): $2.1MM
- Ildemaro Vargas (3.007): $1.1MM
- Kyle Finnegan (3.000): $2MM
Orioles (7)
- Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
- Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
- Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
- Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
- Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
- Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM
Padres (10)
- Josh Hader (5.115): $13.6MM
- Jorge Alfaro (5.083): $3.6MM
- Juan Soto (4.134): $21.5MM
- Tim Hill (4.112): $1.7MM
- Austin Adams (4.015): $1MM
- Jose Castillo (3.125): $900K
- Austin Nola (3.106): $2.2MM
- Trent Grisham (3.060): $2.6MM
- Adrian Morejon (3.013): $800K
- Jake Cronenworth (3.000): $4.4MM
Phillies (7)
- Jose Alvarado (5.082): $3.2MM
- Rhys Hoskins (5.053): $12.6MM
- Seranthony Dominguez (4.131): $2MM
- Ranger Suarez (3.112): $3.5MM
- Sam Coonrod (3.078): $800K
- Yairo Munoz (3.003): $1MM
- Edmundo Sosa (2.140): $1MM
Pirates (6)
- Robert Stephenson (5.049): $1.9MM
- Kevin Newman (4.046): $2.8MM
- Miguel Andujar (4.002): $1.7MM
- Duane Underwood Jr. (3.044): $1MM
- Mitch Keller (3.026): $2.4MM
- JT Brubaker (3.000): $2MM
Rangers (6)
- Mitch Garver (5.045): $4.2MM
- Brett Martin (3.151): $1.5MM
- Taylor Hearn (3.125): $1.7MM
- Dennis Santana (3.095): $1.1MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.041): $1MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (2.145): $4.3MM
Rays (19)
- Ji-Man Choi (5.076): $4.5MM
- Yonny Chirinos (4.125): $1.6MM
- Yandy Diaz (4.122): $5.4MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (4.117): $4.2MM
- Shawn Armstrong (4.113): $1.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (4.070): $1.2MM
- Andrew Kittredge (4.070): $2MM
- Francisco Mejia (4.062): $2.2MM
- Jeffrey Springs (4.055): $3MM
- Roman Quinn (4.035): $900K
- Nick Anderson (3.153): $845K
- Harold Ramirez (3.124): $2.1MM
- Colin Poche (3.109): $1.7MM
- JT Chargois (3.101): $1MM
- Pete Fairbanks (3.057): $1.5MM
- Christian Bethancourt (3.038): $1.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.000): $1.1MM
- Jason Adam (2.132): $1.9MM
- Randy Arozarena (2.129): $4MM
Red Sox (11)
- Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
- Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
- Abraham Almonte (5.012): $900K
- Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
- Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
- Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
- Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
- Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
- Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
Reds (11)
- Buck Farmer (5.140): $1.4MM
- Luis Cessa (5.131): $2.6MM
- Kyle Farmer (4.129): $5.9MM
- Jeff Hoffman (4.105): $1.2MM
- Lucas Sims (4.014): $1.3MM
- Nick Senzel (3.150): $2.2MM
- Derek Law (3.081): $900K
- Aramis Garcia (3.036): $800K
- Justin Dunn (3.016): $1.1MM
- Aristides Aquino (3.003): $1.6MM
- Tejay Antone (3.000): $800K
Rockies (6)
- Dinelson Lamet (5.070): $4.8MM
- Garrett Hampson (4.030): $2.1MM
- Tyler Kinley (4.014): $1.3MM
- Austin Gomber (3.111): $1.8MM
- Brendan Rodgers (3.075): $2.7MM
- Ty Blach (3.007): $800K
Royals (11)
- Luke Weaver (5.112): $3MM
- Amir Garrett (5.099): $2.6MM
- Adalberto Mondesi (5.088): $3MM
- Brad Keller (5.000): $7MM
- Scott Barlow (4.030): $4.9MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.002): $1.5MM
- Nicky Lopez (3.139): $3.4MM
- Taylor Clarke (3.120): $1.5MM
- Josh Staumont (3.072): $1MM
- Brady Singer (2.156): $2.9MM
- Kris Bubic (2.135): $1.8MM
Tigers (12)
- Drew Hutchison (5.097): $1.8MM
- Joe Jimenez (5.061): $2.6MM
- Jeimer Candelario (5.038): $7MM
- Jose Cisnero (5.020): $2.2MM
- Victor Reyes (4.075): $2.2MM
- Austin Meadows (4.074): $4MM
- Harold Castro (3.141): $2.6MM
- Gregory Soto (3.102): $3.1MM
- Tyler Alexander (3.058): $1.6MM
- Willi Castro (3.017): $1.7MM
- Rony Garcia (2.138): $1MM
- Kyle Funkhouser (2.133): $800K
Twins (12)
- Gio Urshela (5.127): $9.2MM
- Emilio Pagan (5.091): $3.7MM
- Tyler Mahle (5.018): $7.2MM
- Caleb Thielbar (4.131): $2.4MM
- Jorge Lopez (4.102): $3.7MM
- Danny Coulombe (4.008): $800K
- Chris Paddack (4.000): $2.4MM
- Jake Cave (3.137): $1.2MM
- Luis Arraez (3.121): $5MM
- Cody Stashak (3.064): $800K
- Jorge Alcala (3.014): $800K
- Kyle Garlick (2.163): $1.1MM
White Sox (8)
- Lucas Giolito (5.080): $10.8MM
- Adam Engel (5.058): $2.3MM
- Kyle Crick (5.027): $1.5MM
- Reynaldo Lopez (5.004): $3.3MM
- Dylan Cease (3.089): $5.3MM
- Jose Ruiz (3.048): $1MM
- Michael Kopech (3.041): $2.2MM
- Danny Mendick (2.168): $1MM
Yankees (14)
- Wandy Peralta (5.168): $3.1MM
- Frankie Montas (5.015): $7.7MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (5.000): $6.5MM
- Lou Trivino (4.163): $4.2MM
- Gleyber Torres (4.162): $9.8MM
- Clay Holmes (4.031): $2.9MM
- Jonathan Loaisiga (4.022): $2.1MM
- Domingo German (4.017): $2.6MM
- Lucas Luetge (4.015): $1.7MM
- Kyle Higashioka (4.005): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (3.122): $1.2MM
- Nestor Cortes (3.094): $3.5MM
- Jose Trevino (3.063): $2MM
- Michael King (3.004): $1.2MM