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Arbitration Projection Model

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The service time figures included are not official.  Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (12)

Astros (10)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (10)

Braves (6)

Brewers (10)

Cardinals (6)

Cubs (14)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (4)

Guardians (9)

Marlins (6)

Mariners (12)

Mets (8)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (15)

Padres (8)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (5)

Rays (12)

Red Sox (3)

Reds (10)

Rockies (10)

Royals (10)

Tigers (11)

Twins (13)

White Sox (9)

Yankees (10)

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

The MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model Had Its Best Year Ever

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With the last of the arbitration hearings officially in the books, we can now officially report that this was the most accurate year that the MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model has ever had. The model estimated salaries within ten percent of salaries for 69% of cases – breaking the previous record of 65% and well above the 54% low point just three years ago.

When I began working on this model way back in 2011, I defined success based on how often my model was within ten percent of the actual arbitration salary for all arbitration-eligible players who signed one-year deals. The initial goal was to be within ten percent for half of such cases. For the 2011-12 arbitration season, the model was within ten percent on 55% of all cases. The model has consistently been in that range or higher, peaking at 65% in the 2014-15 arbitration season, while only dipping below it once with 54% in 2019-20. It averaged 58% over its first nine years. 

Over that time, I repeatedly ran tests on the model, considered new modeling techniques, and had discussions with agents and others with experience in the arbitration space about how to improve the model. There were steps forward, although after picking each piece of low-hanging fruit, the gains were smaller. Ultimately, I pivoted to a focus on more accurate and cleaner data. This was initially something that Bryan Grosnick helped with behind the scenes, and Darragh McDonald took over last year. They both helped tremendously. 

One important process change that I incorporated into model updates in recent years is checking which players would have been the “biggest misses” after updating the model. In many cases, the salaries that “missed” were not reflective of the actual salaries earned. Yet the model was awkwardly contorting itself to fit those purported outcomes. Some of the process of improving data quality was just a matter of finding typos. But in many cases, it was about correctly identifying the “true” arbitration salary a player received. When players avoid arbitration via settlement, they often get performance bonuses, signing bonuses, options for future years, or multi-year agreements. These cases are incorporated into the modeling process where appropriate, but sometimes the “salary” a player literally earned was not really intended to account for the actual arbitration award he would have gotten at a hearing. Cleaning the data involved some subjectivity, but it was designed to better record the intended salary that teams and agents were treating as a baseline when they negotiated more complicated agreements.

More tedious updates to data accuracy are not the most thrilling part of model building. Coming up with creative mathematical methods or just innovative variables to utilize is a more rewarding intellectual exercise for the researcher. But the truth is that better data is often more important than a slightly smarter model. I will continue to evolve the model based on the relevant statistics and factors utilized in the arbitration process, but in recent years I ultimately improved the model more with better data without structuring it differently.

As a result, the model should be more accurate in future years than it has been in the past. See below for a graph showing the performance of the model each year.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 12 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The service time figures, listed in parentheses below, are official. However, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Onto the numbers…

Angels (7)

Astros (9)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (6)

Brewers (18)

Cardinals (11)

Cubs (10)

Diamondbacks (9)

Dodgers (12)

Giants (13)

Guardians (9)

Marlins (12)

Mariners (11)

Mets (8)

Nationals (10)

Orioles (7)

Padres (10)

Phillies (7)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (6)

Rays (19)

Red Sox (11)

Reds (11)

Rockies (6)

Royals (11)

Tigers (12)

Twins (12)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (14)

March 22 Set As New Date For Teams, Players To Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Dozens of arbitration-eligible players still have to get their salaries figured out for the 2022 season, and now that the lockout is over, March 22 is the new deadline for teams and players to submit numbers, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Since a good number of these arbitration cases won’t be settled by March 22, this means arb hearings will stretch into the actual regular season, which is now set to begin on April 7.

As usual, teams will reduce their list of arbitration-eligibles via contract agreements prior to March 22, or perhaps even by trading or releasing some eligible players.  Though the official non-tender deadline still took place just prior to the lockout, it could be that some clubs have simply changed their minds on some players, or have new priorities in terms of cutting or adding to payroll.  With this in mind, the likelihood of even more players becoming available will only add to what already be an absolute frenzy of a free agent and trade market in the aftermath of the lockout.

The sheer amount of front office business could see a shift in how teams or players address these arbitration cases.  While obviously both sides have a specific price in mind and aren’t going to agree to a major discount, there could be a little bit more sway on one side or the other just in the same of getting a deal done.  The sooner an agreement is reached, the sooner the player can fully concentrate on getting ready for the season, and the team can check one item off a lengthy to-do list.

In recent years, clubs have been more apt to deploy the “file and trial” strategy of not negotiating (apart from discussing multi-year extensions) after the figure-exchange deadline for arb-eligible players.  The strategy is to exert a bit of pressure on players to accept an arb-avoiding contract in advance of the deadline, so both sides can sidestep the uncertainty that often goes into an arbitration hearing.  It remains to be seen if teams may be more willing to bend on talks post-deadline just in the name of getting a one-year settled pre-hearing, or if teams may perhaps be even more prone to “file and trial” tactics if they feel they have added leverage on particular players.

However, since hearings won’t take place until after Opening Day, some players will begin the season not knowing that they’ll exactly be earning, thus creating a very unusual situation and adding another wrinkle to a process that already lends itself to awkwardness.  It isn’t uncommon for some hard feelings to develop from these hearings, and now a situation has been created where a team can openly criticize a player during a morning arbitration hearing, and then rely on that same player to be in the starting lineup of that evening’s game.  While an arbiter will only be considering 2021 statistics in determining a 2022 salary, it is possible that some on-field events early in 2022 (a particularly hot or cold start by the player, or an injury) could impact how either side approaches presenting their case to the arbiter.

Of note, the 2021-22 arbitration-eligible players are all still subject to the rules of the previous collective bargaining agreement.  That said, there also weren’t many big changes made to the arb process under the new CBA, as the league refused to even discuss the standards relating to the amount of service time required to gain salary arbitration, or even to the player’s desire for a large increase in the number of Super Two-eligible players.  However, pre-arbitration players will now enter their arb years on higher base salaries, thanks to the new bonus pool system for pre-arbitration players and the increase in the minimum salary.

One interesting detail does exist, as MLBTR has learned that for players who will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter, their statistics from the shortened 2020 season will be extrapolated to fit what the player “would have” done had the season been a standard 162 games.  A player who hit 10 home runs in 2020, for instance, would be treated as if he had hit 27 homers.  This formula involving 2020’s statistics will be used for all future arbitration hearings going forward.  However, no such formula exists regarding the 2020 season for this year’s arb class, so teams and players can make whatever arguments they wish in hearings given the lack of a uniform standard for how 2020 statistics should be addressed.

MLB Trade Rumors has used Matt Swartz’s model for projecting arbitration salaries for the last 11 years, and here are the projections for both the remaining arb-eligible players, as well as the numbers for the players who agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline.

The Value Of The MLBPA’s Super Two Proposal

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In its most recent proposal, the Major League Baseball Players Association asked that 80% of players with at least two years of MLB service be considered arbitration eligible.  This is up from 22%, which has been the cutoff since 2013 when it was increased from 17%.  In the ongoing CBA negotiations, MLB has shown no interest in any change to the 22% figure.  The MLBPA started these CBA talks at a position of making all 2+ players eligible for arbitration, which had been the case from the inception of salary arbitration in 1973 up until 1985.

I thought it might be interesting to attempt to quantify the MLBPA’s request.  First, we should get an idea of how many additional players would be thrown into the arbitration system each year.  As I mentioned on Twitter last week, the 80% request, if in effect this offseason, would mean changing the current Super Two cutoff from 2.116 (two years and 116 days of MLB service) to 2.028.  Keep in mind that the Super Two cutoff is always a moving target.

By my count, under the 2.116 cutoff, 26 players currently qualify as Super Two this offseason, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Austin Riley, and Bryan Reynolds.

Under a cutoff reduced to 2.028, 79 additional players would qualify as arbitration eligible.  I’ve listed them below along with projected arbitration salaries from Matt Swartz.  Note that our arbitration projection model sometimes spits out a number below the league minimum, in which case we set the projection equal to the minimum.  For this exercise, we’ll use a minimum salary of $700K.

To calculate how much additional money MLB teams would be paying under this system in 2022, I found the difference between the projected arbitration salary, and a hypothetical $700K minimum.  So, for example, Yordan Alvarez and Bo Bichette would gain the most, an additional $3.9MM each in ’22.  Note that it’s possible a few star players might make more than the league minimum even as a pre-arbitration player, like when Mookie Betts was renewed for $950K in 2017, but we aren’t modeling that in.

So, for these 79 additional Super Two players under the MLBPA’s proposal, we estimate that teams would pay an additional $72.4MM in 2022.

By itself, MLB might be willing to stomach something of that nature.  They’ve shown a willingness to put $15MM into a pre-arbitration bonus pool, and I assume they could be pushed up higher if the players drop their request to change Super Two eligibility.

But there’s the rub: MLB doesn’t want any additional players thrown into the arbitration system.  Doing so, particularly for star players, would increase that player’s total arbitration earnings by a significant amount, and also help push up the pay scale.

To illustrate this, we asked Matt Swartz to model out a couple of players who have been through the arbitration system already.

The first is Francisco Lindor.  Lindor went through arbitration three times, earning salaries of $10.55MM in 2019, $17.5MM in 2020, and $22.3MM in 2021, for a total of $50.35MM.  Under the MLBPA’s proposal, Lindor would have been arbitration eligible four times.  This means he would have earned a lot more than the $623,200 he did in 2018 – 10.7 times as much, in our estimation.  Here’s how our model saw a Lindor who went to arbitration four times, keeping his actual statistics the same:

  • 2018: $623,200 -> $6.7MM
  • 2019: $10.55MM -> $14.9MM
  • 2020: $17.5MM -> $20.7MM
  • 2021: $22.3MM -> $23.4MM
  • Total: $50,973,200 -> $65.7MM
  • Difference: $14,726,800

Our other example is Josh Bell.  He’s also set to go through arbitration three times, earning $4.8MM in 2020, $6.35MM in 2021, and a projected $10MM in 2022 for a total of $21.15MM.  Here’s how that might have played out had he gone through arbitration four times:

  • 2019: $587K -> $2.8MM
  • 2020: $4.8MM -> $8.1MM
  • 2021: $6.35MM -> $9.6MM
  • 2022: 10MM (projected) -> $13.2MM
  • Total: $21,737,000 -> $33.7MM
  • Difference: $11,963,000

The Pirates traded Bell in December 2020, knowing he was set to get a bump from $4.8MM to $6.35MM.  MLB might argue that the Pirates would have traded Bell a year earlier if he was slated to jump from $2.8MM to $8.1MM.  They might say that not only would expanding Super Two be bad for their pocketbooks, it’d be bad for “competitive balance.”  I imagine the MLBPA would argue that the Pirates could have afforded Bell in either scenario.

There’s also the chance that shifting the arbitration pay scale a year earlier for a good number of players would simply result in them getting non-tendered a year earlier and hitting the free agent market.  If you look at the list of 79 players above, you can be assured that many of them will not make it all the way through arbitration even if they earn the league minimum in 2022.

Looking at a player like Bell, if he was coming off a poor 2020 season and was set to earn $9.6MM instead of $6.35MM, he might have simply been non-tendered.  As we’ve seen with an example like Kyle Schwarber, this is not necessarily a bad scenario for the player, since Schwarber earned more in free agency than he was projected to get in arbitration, and he’s set to parlay a strong bounceback year into a good multiyear contract.

If you wanted to model out the MLBPA’s 80% request further, you’d have to retroactively apply it to all the players who would’ve been affected and see how much money moves toward the players in that scenario.  But it’d be impossible to guess who would’ve been non-tendered when, so it’s not an exact science.  At any rate, we may learn this week whether MLB truly has any willingness to move off the 22% Super Two cutoff, even if it’s not to 80%.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022

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At some point, the MLB lockout will end and teams will be scrambling to address their arbitration eligible players.  We’ve updated this post, removing players no longer on 40-man rosters.  We’ve also moved traded players to the correct teams and added official service time as well as notes for pre-tender agreements.

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 11 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The Super Two cutoff is 2.116 in Major League service time.  The service time figures below are official.  We’ll make adjustments to any projection below the league minimum salary, once a new minimum is established.  Also, please note that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (3)

  • Max Stassi (5.049) – $2.7MM
  • Mike Mayers (4.020) – $2.2MM
  • Tyler Wade (3.088) – $700K

Astros (6)

  • Rafael Montero (5.138) – $3.1MM
  • Aledmys Diaz (5.100) – $4.0MM
  • Phil Maton (4.047) – $1.4MM
  • Ryne Stanek (4.038) – $2.1MM
  • Josh James (3.005) – $700K
  • Framber Valdez (2.163) – $3.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Sean Manaea (5.157) – $10.2MM
  • Chris Bassitt (5.130) – $8.8MM
  • Chad Pinder (5.047) – $2.8MM.  Signed for $2.725MM prior to NT deadline
  • Matt Chapman (4.109) – $9.5MM
  • Matt Olson (4.103) – $12.0MM
  • Tony Kemp (4.098) – $2.2MM.  Signed for $2.25MM prior to NT deadline
  • Frankie Montas (4.015) – $5.2MM
  • Lou Trivino (3.163) – $2.9MM
  • Deolis Guerra (3.071) – $900K.  Signed for $815K prior to NT deadline
  • Ramon Laureano (3.014) – $2.8MM

Blue Jays (10)

  • Ross Stripling (5.115) – $4.4MM
  • Teoscar Hernandez (4.097) – $10.0MM
  • Adam Cimber (3.156) – $1.5MM
  • Trevor Richards (3.084) – $1.1MM
  • Ryan Borucki (3.066) – $800K
  • Danny Jansen (3.050) – $1.5MM
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.157) – $7.9MM
  • Tim Mayza (2.156) – $1.2MM
  • Trent Thornton (2.150) – $900K
  • Cavan Biggio (2.129) – $1.7MM

Braves (10)

  • Adam Duvall (5.151) – $9.1MM
  • Dansby Swanson (5.047) – $10.1MM
  • Luke Jackson (5.019) – $3.8MM
  • Guillermo Heredia (4.112) – $1.6MM.  Signed for $1MM prior to NT deadline
  • A.J. Minter (3.154) – $2.1MM
  • Max Fried (3.148) – $7.1MM
  • Mike Soroka (3.146) – $2.8MM
  • Sean Newcomb (3.123) – $900K
  • Tyler Matzek (3.019) – $1.5MM
  • Austin Riley (2.138) – $4.3MM

Brewers (12)

  • Jace Peterson (5.142) – $1.3MM.  Signed for $1.825MM prior to NT deadline
  • Omar Narvaez (5.089) – $4.1MM
  • Hunter Renfroe (4.165) – $7.6MM
  • Brent Suter (4.161) – $2.3MM
  • Josh Hader (4.115) – $10.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff (3.161) – $7.1MM
  • Willy Adames (3.105) – $4.0MM
  • Corbin Burnes (3.049) – $4.0MM
  • Eric Lauer (3.033) – $2.7MM
  • Jandel Gustave (3.027) – $800K.  Signed for $675K prior to NT deadline
  • Adrian Houser (3.010) – $2.3MM
  • Rowdy Tellez (3.004) – $1.9MM.  Signed for $1.94MM prior to NT deadline
  • Luis Urias (2.120) – $2.4MM

Cardinals (7)

  • Alex Reyes (4.056) – $3.3MM
  • Harrison Bader (4.030) – $3.7MM
  • Jack Flaherty (4.006) – $5.1MM
  • Jordan Hicks (4.000) – $1.0MM
  • Giovanny Gallegos (3.085) – $2.8MM
  • Dakota Hudson (3.066) – $1.7MM
  • Tyler O’Neill (3.059) – $3.5MM

Cubs (3)

  • Willson Contreras (5.108) – $8.7MM
  • Ian Happ (4.036) – $6.5MM
  • Harold Ramirez (2.124) – $1.6MM

Diamondbacks (7)

  • Luke Weaver (4.112) – $2.7MM
  • Noe Ramirez (4.083) – $1.8MM.  Signed for $1.25MM prior to NT deadline
  • Caleb Smith (4.078) – $2.1MM.  Signed for $2MM prior to NT deadline
  • Carson Kelly (3.161) – $3.0MM
  • Christian Walker (3.124) – $2.7MM
  • Jordan Luplow (3.112) – $1.5MM
  • J.B. Wendelken (3.028) – $900K.  Signed for $835K prior to NT deadline

Dodgers (4)

  • Trea Turner (5.135) – $19.8MM
  • Cody Bellinger (4.160) – $16.1MM.  Signed for $17MM prior to NT deadline
  • Julio Urias (4.117) – $8.8MM
  • Caleb Ferguson (3.093) – $700K

Giants (7)

  • Dominic Leone (5.168) – $1.5MM
  • Curt Casali (5.151) – $2.0MM
  • Darin Ruf (4.138) – $2.6MM
  • Jarlin Garcia (4.114) – $1.8MM.  Signed for $1.725MM prior to NT deadline
  • John Brebbia (4.078) – $1.0MM.  Signed for $837.5K prior to NT deadline
  • Austin Slater (3.147) – $2.0MM.  Signed for $1.85MM prior to NT deadline
  • Mike Yastrzemski (2.128) – $3.1MM

Guardians (7)

  • Austin Hedges (5.166) – $3.8MM
  • Amed Rosario (4.062) – $5.0MM
  • Franmil Reyes (3.115) – $4.4MM
  • Shane Bieber (3.097) – $4.8MM
  • Bradley Zimmer (3.077) – $1.5MM
  • Cal Quantrill (2.132) – $2.8MM
  • Josh Naylor (2.127) – $1.2MM

Mariners (10)

  • Adam Frazier (5.075) – $7.2MM
  • Mitch Haniger (5.048) – $8.5MM
  • Drew Steckenrider (4.094) – $2.1MM
  • Tom Murphy (4.092) – $1.7MM
  • J.P. Crawford (3.163) – $5.0MM
  • Diego Castillo (3.118) – $2.6MM
  • Paul Sewald (3.072) – $1.8MM
  • Casey Sadler (3.035) – $1.3MM.  Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
  • Dylan Moore (3.000) – $1.6MM
  • Luis Torrens (2.118) – $1.6MM

Marlins (10)

  • Jesus Aguilar (5.082) – $7.4MM
  • Richard Bleier (5.074) – $2.5MM
  • Joey Wendle (4.088) – $4.0MM
  • Garrett Cooper (4.053) – $3.0MM
  • Dylan Floro (4.053) – $2.4MM
  • Brian Anderson (4.031) – $4.5MM
  • Jacob Stallings (3.149) – $2.6MM
  • Elieser Hernandez (3.118) – $1.4MM
  • Pablo Lopez (3.093) – $2.5MM
  • Jon Berti (2.168) – $1.2MM

Mets (13)

  • Edwin Diaz (5.121) – $10.4MM
  • Seth Lugo (5.082) – $3.7MM
  • Miguel Castro (5.079) – $2.6MM
  • Brandon Nimmo (5.042) – $6.0MM
  • Trevor Williams (5.027) – $3.8MM
  • Dominic Smith (3.146) – $4.0MM
  • J.D. Davis (3.137) – $2.7MM
  • Tomas Nido (3.089) – $900K
  • Jeff McNeil (3.069) – $2.8MM
  • Joey Lucchesi (3.067) – $1.6MM
  • Drew Smith (3.034) – $900K
  • Pete Alonso (3.000) – $7.3MM
  • Luis Guillorme (2.167) – $700K

Nationals (8)

  • Josh Bell (5.053) – $10.0MM
  • Joe Ross (5.018) – $3.0MM
  • Juan Soto (3.134) – $16.2MM
  • Erick Fedde (3.099) – $1.9MM
  • Victor Robles (3.033) – $1.7MM
  • Austin Voth (2.127) – $1.0MM
  • Tanner Rainey (2.127) – $800K
  • Andrew Stevenson (2.127) – $900K.  Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline

Orioles (6)

  • Trey Mancini (5.015) – $7.9MM
  • Anthony Santander (3.162) – $3.7MM.  Signed for $3.15MM prior to NT deadline
  • Jorge Lopez (3.102) – $1.5MM.  Signed for $1.5MM prior to NT deadline
  • Paul Fry (3.075) – $1.1MM.  Signed for $850K prior to NT deadline
  • Tanner Scott (3.059) – $1.0MM
  • John Means (3.007) – $3.1MM

Padres (8)

  • Joe Musgrove (5.063) – $8.9MM
  • Dinelson Lamet (4.130) – $4.6MM
  • Emilio Pagan (4.091) – $2.3MM.  Signed for $2.3MM prior to NT deadline
  • Jorge Alfaro (4.083) – $2.7MM
  • Victor Caratini (4.051) – $2.1MM
  • Tim Hill (3.112) – $1.4MM.  Signed for $1.325MM prior to NT deadline
  • Austin Adams (3.015) – $1.0MM.  Signed for $925K prior to NT deadline
  • Chris Paddack (3.000) – $2.1MM

Phillies (4)

  • Zach Eflin (5.018) – $6.0MM
  • Jose Alvarado (4.088) – $1.9MM
  • Rhys Hoskins (4.053)  – $7.6MM
  • Seranthony Dominguez (3.131) – $800K.  Signed for $725K prior to NT deadline

Pirates (4)

  • Ben Gamel (5.029) – $2.9MM.  Signed for $1.8MM prior to NT deadline
  • Chris Stratton (4.100)  – $2.2MM
  • Kevin Newman (3.046) – $2.2MM
  • Bryan Reynolds (2.163) – $4.5MM

Rangers (4)

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (4.000) – $4.9MM
  • Willie Calhoun (3.033) – $1.6MM
  • Brett Martin (2.151) – $1.1MM
  • Taylor Hearn (2.140) – $1.1MM

Rays (14)

  • Matt Wisler (5.042) – $1.8MM
  • Manuel Margot (5.012) – $5.0MM
  • Tyler Glasnow (4.158) – $5.8MM
  • Ji-Man Choi (4.076) – $3.5MM.  Signed prior to NT deadline for $3.2MM
  • Ryan Yarbrough (3.147) – $4.4MM
  • Yonny Chirinos (3.137) – $1.2MM
  • Yandy Diaz (3.122) – $2.7MM
  • Austin Meadows (3.074) – $4.3MM
  • Andrew Kittredge (3.070) – $1.6MM
  • Jalen Beeks (3.070) – $600K
  • Francisco Mejia (3.062) – $1.5MM
  • Jeffrey Springs (3.055) – $1.0MM
  • Brett Phillips (3.013) – $1.2MM
  • Nick Anderson (3.000) – $900K

Red Sox (7)

  • Kevin Plawecki (5.167) – $2.0MM.  Signed for $2.25MM after NT deadline
  • Ryan Brasier (4.109) – $1.4MM.  Signed for $1.4MM prior to NT deadline
  • Rafael Devers (4.070) – $11.1MM
  • Nick Pivetta (3.166) – $3.2MM
  • Alex Verdugo (3.078) – $3.2MM
  • Christian Arroyo (3.036) – $1.1MM
  • Josh Taylor (2.121) – $1.1MM

Reds (10)

  • Tyler Naquin (5.033) – $3.6MM
  • Luis Cessa (4.131) – $1.6MM
  • Luis Castillo (4.101) – $7.6MM
  • Amir Garrett (4.099) – $2.2MM
  • Jesse Winker (4.080) – $6.8MM
  • Tyler Mahle (4.018) – $5.6MM
  • Kyle Farmer (3.129) – $2.2MM
  • Jeff Hoffman (3.105) – $1.1MM
  • Lucas Sims (3.014) – $1.2MM
  • Nick Senzel (2.150) – $1.1MM

Rockies (9)

  • Daniel Bard (5.103) – $4.8MM.  Signed for $4.4MM prior to NT deadline
  • Carlos Estevez (5.022) – $3.2MM
  • Kyle Freeland (4.144) – $7.0MM
  • Robert Stephenson (4.049) – $1.1MM
  • Raimel Tapia (4.020) – $3.9MM
  • Ryan McMahon (4.006) – $5.5MM
  • Garrett Hampson (3.030) – $1.8MM
  • Tyler Kinley (3.014) – $1.0MM.  Signed for $1.025MM prior to NT deadline
  • Peter Lambert (2.116) – $600K

Royals (7)

  • Andrew Benintendi (5.062) – $9.3MM
  • Adalberto Mondesi (4.088) – $3.2MM
  • Brad Keller (4.000) – $5.2MM
  • Cam Gallagher (3.106) – $900K
  • Scott Barlow (3.030) – $2.4MM
  • Ryan O’Hearn (3.002) – $1.4MM
  • Nicky Lopez (2.139) – $2.0MM

Tigers (8)

  • Michael Fulmer (5.157) – $5.1MM
  • Joe Jimenez (4.061) – $1.8MM
  • Jeimer Candelario (4.038) – $5.9MM
  • Jose Cisnero (4.020) – $1.9MM
  • Victor Reyes (3.075) – $1.3MM
  • Spencer Turnbull (3.020) – $1.8MM
  • Dustin Garneau (3.015) – $1.6MM
  • Harold Castro (2.141) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

  • Taylor Rogers (5.145) – $6.7MM
  • Tyler Duffey (5.074) – $3.7MM.  Signed for $3.8MM prior to NT deadline
  • Mitch Garver (4.045) – $3.1MM
  • Caleb Thielbar (3.131) – $1.2MM.  Signed for $1.3MM prior to NT deadline
  • Jharel Cotton (3.052) – $1.2MM.  Signed for $700K prior to NT deadline
  • Luis Arraez (2.121) – $2.0MM

White Sox (3)

  • Lucas Giolito (4.080) – $7.9MM
  • Adam Engel (4.058) – $2.2MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez (4.004) – $2.8MM

Yankees (16)

  • Jameson Taillon (5.110) – $4.7MM
  • Joey Gallo (5.103) – $10.2MM
  • Gary Sanchez (5.086) – $7.9MM
  • Aaron Judge (5.051) – $17.1MM
  • Chad Green (5.050) – $4.1MM
  • Wandy Peralta (4.168) – $1.7MM
  • Jordan Montgomery (4.153) – $4.8MM
  • Gio Urshela (4.127) – $6.2MM.  Signed for $6.55MM prior to NT deadline
  • Luke Voit (3.169) – $5.4MM
  • Gleyber Torres (3.162) – $5.9MM
  • Miguel Andujar (3.117) – $1.7MM
  • Clay Holmes (3.031) – $1.0MM
  • Jonathan Loaisiga (3.022) – $1.7MM
  • Domingo German (3.017) – $2.1MM.  Signed for $1.75MM prior to NT deadline
  • Lucas Luetge (3.015) – $1.1MM.  Signed for $905K prior to NT deadline
  • Kyle Higashioka (3.005) – $1.2MM

The arbitration projections were originally published 10-11-21.  Additional information was added 2-17-22.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2021

By | at

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years.  This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter.  To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort.  So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation.  The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level.  A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything.  Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it.  Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room.  To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:

  • Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
  • Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals.  One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
  • Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Angels (11)

  • Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
  • Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
  • Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
  • Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
  • Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
  • Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
  • Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
  • Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
  • Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM /  $1.0MM
  • Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM

Astros (3)

  • Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
  • Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
  • Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
  • Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
  • Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
  • Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
  • Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
  • Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
  • Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
  • Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K

Blue Jays (3)

  • A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
  • Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
  • Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM

Braves (8)

  • Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Adam Duvall – $4.4MM /  $7.1MM / $4.7MM
  • Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
  • Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
  • A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
  • Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM

Brewers (10)

  • Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
  • Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
  • Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
  • Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
  • Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

Cardinals (6)

  • Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
  • John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
  • John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
  • Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM

Cubs (12)

  • Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
  • Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
  • Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
  • Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
  • Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
  • Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM /  $1.0MM
  • Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
  • Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM /  $7.9MM
  • Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM /  $1.1MM
  • Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
  • Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM

Diamondbacks (5)

  • Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
  • Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM /  $2.8MM
  • Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM /  $1.3MM
  • Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM /  $1.3MM
  • Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
  • Walker Buehler – $2.3MM /  $3.1MM / $2.3MM
  • Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM /  $900K
  • Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
  • Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM

Giants (9)

  • Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM /  $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
  • Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM

Indians (7)

  • Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
  • Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
  • Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
  • Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
  • Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM

Mariners (3)

  • J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
  • Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM

Marlins (9)

  • Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM /  $6.1MM / $3.9MM
  • Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
  • Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
  • Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
  • Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
  • Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
  • Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM

Mets (13)

  • Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
  • Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
  • J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
  • Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
  • Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
  • Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
  • Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
  • Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
  • Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
  • Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
  • Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K

Nationals (3)

  • Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
  • Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM

Orioles (6)

  • Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
  • Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
  • Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
  • Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
  • Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
  • Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM

Padres (8)

  • Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
  • Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
  • Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
  • Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
  • Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
  • Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM

Phillies (6)

  • Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
  • Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
  • Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
  • Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
  • Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
  • Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM

Pirates (15)

  • Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
  • Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
  • Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
  • Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
  • Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
  • Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
  • Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
  • Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
  • Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
  • Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Chris Stratton – $800K /  $1.2MM / $800K
  • Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
  • Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM

Rangers (4)

  • Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
  • Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
  • Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM

Rays (8)

  • Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
  • Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
  • Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
  • Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
  • Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
  • Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
  • Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
  • Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM

Red Sox (7)

  • Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
  • Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
  • Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
  • Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
  • Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
  • Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K

Reds (9)

  • Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
  • Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
  • Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
  • Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
  • Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
  • Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
  • Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
  • Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
  • Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM

Rockies (13)

  • Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
  • Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
  • Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
  • Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
  • Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
  • Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
  • Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
  • Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
  • Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
  • Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
  • Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM

Royals (9)

  • Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
  • Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
  • Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
  • Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
  • Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
  • Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
  • Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K

Tigers (9)

  • Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
  • Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
  • Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
  • Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
  • Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
  • Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
  • Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
  • Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM

Twins (7)

  • Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
  • Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
  • Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
  • Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
  • Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
  • Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
  • Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM

White Sox (7)

  • Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
  • Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
  • Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
  • Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
  • Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM

Yankees (11)

  • Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
  • Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
  • Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
  • Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
  • Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
  • Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
  • Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
  • Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
  • Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
  • Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
  • Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM

2020 MLB Arbitration Tracker Now Available

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MLBTR will be keeping track of all arbitration-related figures, including settlement amounts, team and player submissions, and hearing results in our handy 2020 MLB Arbitration Tracker.  The tracker is currently up-to-date for all 191 arbitration eligible players, including numbers for those who have settled on their 2020 salary.  You can filter by team, service time, and signing, hearing, and Super Two status.  Bookmark the 2020 MLB Arbitration Tracker today!

January 10th marks the deadline for players and teams to exchange salary figures.  As ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted last January, all 30 teams now employ the “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that if they don’t reach an agreement by the January 10th filing date, they’ll automatically go to a hearing no matter the difference.  In the potentially contentious arbitration hearings, of which there were 10 last winter, a “panel of three independent arbitrators renders a winner-take-all decision,” as Passan put it.  The player is in the room for the arguments, and the teams’ hardline stance means the battle can be over as little as $100K.  Hearings run throughout the first three weeks of February.

Also of note: MLB Trade Rumors’ world-class arbitration salary projections, which Matt Swartz has been doing for us for the past nine years.  You can check out the 2020 projections here.

 

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2020

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the ninth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2020.  Official service time is in parentheses next to each player. The Super Two cutoff has been confirmed as 2.115.  For players’ actual arbitration salaries, check out our tracker here.

Angels (9)

  • Tommy La Stella (5.057) – $2.9MM
  • Cam Bedrosian (4.153) – $2.8MM
  • Andrew Heaney (4.150) – $5.0MM
  • Hansel Robles (4.119) – $4.0MM
  • Dylan Bundy (4.026) – $5.7MM
  • Max Stassi (3.049) – $800K
  • Brian Goodwin (3.019) – $2.1MM
  • Keynan Middleton (2.150) – $800K
  • Noe Ramirez (2.139) – $1.0MM

Astros (8)

  • George Springer (5.166) – $21.4MM
  • Brad Peacock (5.165) – $4.6MM
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (4.140) – $4.1MM
  • Carlos Correa (4.119) – $7.4MM
  • Roberto Osuna (4.097) – $10.2MM
  • Chris Devenski (4.000) – $2.0MM
  • Joe Biagini (3.134) – $1.5MM
  • Aledmys Diaz (3.100) – $2.4MM

Athletics (8)

  • Liam Hendriks (5.164) – $5.5MM
  • T.J. McFarland (5.164) – $2.1MM
  • Marcus Semien (5.118) – $13.5MM
  • Robbie Grossman (5.060) – $3.3MM
  • Mark Canha (4.092) – $4.9MM
  • Sean Manaea (3.157) – $3.5MM
  • Chris Bassitt (3.130) – $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder (3.047) – $1.8MM

Blue Jays (4)

  • Matt Shoemaker (5.166) – $3.8MM
  • Ken Giles (5.113) – $8.4MM
  • Anthony Bass (5.010) – $1.7MM
  • Brandon Drury (3.165) – $2.5MM

Braves (7)

  • Shane Greene (5.075) – $6.5MM
  • Mike Foltynewicz (4.134) – $7.5MM
  • Adam Duvall (3.151) – $3.8MM
  • Dansby Swanson (3.047) – $3.3MM
  • Luke Jackson (3.019) – $1.9MM
  • Grant Dayton (3.007) – $800K
  • Johan Camargo (2.137) – $1.6MM

Brewers (6)

  • Corey Knebel (4.151) – $5.125MM
  • Omar Narvaez (3.089) – $2.9MM
  • Orlando Arcia (3.047) – $2.7MM
  • Ben Gamel (3.029) – $1.6MM
  • Brent Suter (2.161) – $900K
  • Josh Hader (2.115) – $4.6MM

Cardinals (1)

  • John Gant (3.004) – $1.4MM

Cubs (7)

  • Kris Bryant (4.171) – $18.5MM
  • Javier Baez (4.089) – $9.3MM
  • Kyle Schwarber (4.086) – $8.0MM
  • Willson Contreras (3.108) – $4.5MM
  • Albert Almora (3.073) – $1.8MM
  • Jharel Cotton (2.158) – $800K
  • Kyle Ryan (2.139) – $1.1MM

Diamondbacks (7)

  • David Peralta (5.120) – $8.8MM
  • Nick Ahmed (5.054) – $7.0MM
  • Jake Lamb (5.053) – $5.0MM
  • Andrew Chafin (5.020) -$3.2MM
  • Robbie Ray (5.007) – $10.8MM
  • Archie Bradley (4.112) – $3.6MM
  • Matt Andriese (4.071) – $1.4MM

Dodgers (12)

  • Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
  • Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
  • Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
  • Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
  • Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
  • Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
  • Austin Barnes (3.098) – $1.3MM
  • Scott Alexander (3.097) – $1.0MM
  • Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
  • Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
  • Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM

Giants (3)

  • Donovan Solano (4.081) – $1.2MM
  • Alex Dickerson (3.120) – $1.2MM
  • Wandy Peralta (2.168) – $800K

Indians (5)

  • Sandy Leon (5.144) – $2.8MM
  • Francisco Lindor (4.113) – $16.7MM
  • Nick Wittgren (3.071) – $1.3MM
  • Mike Clevinger (3.041) – $4.5MM
  • Tyler Naquin (3.033) – $1.8MM

Mariners (3)

  • Mallex Smith (3.125) – $2.7MM
  • Sam Tuivailala (3.082) – $900K
  • Mitch Haniger (3.048) – $3.0MM

Marlins (4)

  • Jonathan Villar (5.113)  -$10.4MM
  • Jose Urena (4.040) – $4.0MM
  • Adam Conley (3.147) – $1.6MM
  • Jesus Aguilar (3.082) – $2.5MM

Mets (9)

  • Marcus Stroman (5.148) – $11.8MM
  • Jake Marisnick (5.132) – $3.0MM
  • Noah Syndergaard (4.149) – $9.9MM
  • Steven Matz (4.099) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Conforto (4.043) – $9.2MM
  • Edwin Diaz (3.121) – $7.0MM
  • Seth Lugo (3.082) – $1.9MM
  • Brandon Nimmo (3.042) – $1.7MM
  • Robert Gsellman (3.042) – $1.2MM

Nationals (6)

  • Hunter Strickland (4.163) – $1.9MM
  • Michael A. Taylor (4.129) – $3.25MM
  • Roenis Elias (4.069) – $1.9MM
  • Joe Ross (4.018) – $1.4MM
  • Trea Turner (3.135) – $7.5MM
  • Wilmer Difo (3.016) – $1.2MM

Orioles (5)

  • Mychal Givens (4.069) – $3.2MM
  • Hanser Alberto (3.085) – $1.9MM
  • Miguel Castro (3.079) – $1.2MM
  • Richard Bleier (3.074) – $1.1MM
  • Trey Mancini (3.015) – $5.7MM

Padres (10)

  • Jurickson Profar (5.165) – $5.8MM
  • Kirby Yates (5.021) – $6.5MM
  • Greg Garcia (4.083) – $1.7MM
  • Zach Davies (4.020) – $5.0MM
  • Austin Hedges (3.166) – $2.9MM
  • Luis Perdomo (3.086) – $1.0MM
  • Matt Strahm (3.064) – $1.5MM
  • Manuel Margot (3.012) – $2.1MM
  • Hunter Renfroe (2.165) – $3.4MM
  • Dinelson Lamet (2.130) – $1.7MM

Phillies (7)

  • J.T. Realmuto (5.038) – $10.3MM
  • Jose Alvarez (5.035) – $3.0MM
  • Vince Velasquez (4.086) – $3.9MM
  • Hector Neris (4.068) – $4.7MM
  • Adam Morgan (4.017) – $1.6MM
  • Zach Eflin (3.018) – $3.0MM
  • Andrew Knapp (3.000) – $800K

Pirates (9)

  • Keone Kela (5.000) – $3.4MM
  • Michael Feliz (3.169) – $1.2MM
  • Jameson Taillon (3.110) – $2.3MM
  • Chad Kuhl (3.079) – $1.4MM
  • Adam Frazier (3.075) – $3.2MM
  • Joe Musgrove (3.063) – $3.4MM
  • Josh Bell (3.053) – $5.9MM
  • Trevor Williams (3.027)- $3.0MM
  • Erik Gonzalez (3.007) – $800K

Rangers (6)

  • Danny Santana (4.140) – $3.9MM
  • Delino Deshields (4.109) – $2.4MM
  • Nomar Mazara (4.000) – $5.7MM
  • Rafael Montero (3.138) – $900K
  • Nick Goody (3.105) – $1.1MM
  • Joey Gallo (3.103) – $4.0MM

Rays (6)

  • Mike Zunino (5.165) – $4.9MM
  • Tommy Pham (4.107) – $8.6MM
  • Chaz Roe (4.094) – $2.2MM
  • Oliver Drake (3.045) – $1.1MM
  • Tyler Glasnow (2.158) – $1.9MM
  • Daniel Robertson (2.134) – $1.1MM

Red Sox (7)

  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (5.150) – $11MM
  • Mookie Betts (5.070) – $27.7MM
  • Brandon Workman (5.051) – $3.4MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (4.130) – $9.5MM
  • Matt Barnes (4.110) – $3.0MM
  • Heath Hembree (4.106) – $1.6MM
  • Andrew Benintendi (3.062) – $4.9MM

Reds (6)

  • Trevor Bauer (5.158) – $18.6MM
  • Anthony DeSclafani (5.062) – $5.2MM
  • Michael Lorenzen (4.159) – $4.2MM
  • Curt Casali (3.151) – $1.7MM
  • Travis Jankowski (3.148) – $1.2MM
  • Matt Bowman (3.021) – $900K

Rockies (7)

  • Scott Oberg (4.063) – $2.0MM
  • Jon Gray (4.062) – $5.6MM
  • Trevor Story (4.000) – $11.5MM
  • Tony Wolters (3.161) – $2.0MM
  • Carlos Estevez (3.022) – $1.2MM
  • David Dahl (2.162) – $3.0MM
  • Kyle Freeland (2.144) – $2.4MM

Royals (2)

  • Jorge Soler (4.143) – $11.2MM
  • Mike Montgomery (4.089) – $2.9MM

Tigers (5)

  • Daniel Norris (4.073) – $2.9MM
  • Michael Fulmer (3.157) – $2.8MM
  • Matthew Boyd (3.136) – $6.4MM
  • Buck Farmer (3.083) – $1.1MM
  • JaCoby Jones (2.125) – $1.4MM

Twins (9)

  • Ehire Adrianza (5.131) – $1.9MM
  • Trevor May (5.012) – $2.1MM
  • Eddie Rosario (4.120) – $8.9MM
  • Miguel Sano (4.066) – $5.9MM
  • Byron Buxton (3.160) – $2.9MM
  • Taylor Rogers (3.145) – $3.9MM
  • Tyler Duffey (3.074) – $1.1MM
  • Jose Berrios (3.044) – $5.4MM
  • Matt Wisler (3.042) – $1.0MM

White Sox (5)

  • Alex Colome (5.118) – $10.3MM
  • James McCann (5.028) – $4.9MM
  • Leury Garcia (5.025) – $4.0MM
  • Carlos Rodon (4.168) – $4.5MM
  • Evan Marshall (3.090) – $1.3MM

Yankees (9)

  • James Paxton (5.151) – $12.9MM
  • Tommy Kahnle (4.131) – $3.0MM
  • Gary Sanchez (3.086) – $5.6MM
  • Aaron Judge (3.051) – $6.4MM
  • Chad Green (3.050) – $1.4MM
  • Jordan Montgomery (2.153) – $1.2MM
  • Luis Cessa (2.131) – $1.1MM
  • Gio Urshela (2.127) – $2.2MM
  • Jonathan Holder (2.124) – $800K
Show all

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