The free agent crop's best leadoff hitter is also one of this winter's most popular players. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that multiple teams are interested in Michael Bourn, including the Nationals, Phillies, Reds, and Red Sox. The Dodgers are considered a very long shot to sign the speedy outfielder.
Bourn, 29, hit .274/.348/.391 with 42 steals for the Braves this year and offers both elite speed and elite center field defense. The Reds and Nationals are known to be seeking leadoff hitting outfielders while the Red Sox are looking for outfielders in general, presumably corner bats given the presence of Jacoby Ellsbury. The Phillies originally drafted and developed Bourn before sending him to the Astros in the Brad Lidge trade.
Earlier today, Bourn officially rejected the Braves' qualifying offer and will require draft pick compensation to sign. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes ranked him third in his Top 50 Free Agents list, predicting he would sign with Washington.
I picked the Reds in the prediction contest. They just seemed to make the most sense, since they desperately need a leadoff hitter.
And block Billy Hamilton? Yeah, I’d say it’s a safe bet that it doesn’t happen.
How does signing Michael Bourn blocks Hamilton? LOL
Hamilton is a CFer. He was moved last year to CF. Didi is their future SS and Hamilton is their CF (maybe even to start next year).
Wow! I didn’t know that! Great move by the Reds to take advantage of his blazing speed. If that’s the case. You’re right.
No, Hamilton will most likely start at AAA, if not a brief return to AA. Remember, he only played 50 games in AA last year.
Michael Bourn isn’t going to sign a one year deal so it’s going to block him at some point unless they move Bourn to left. I’m not sure it’s wise to have both guys in your outfield, although granted, they’re going to get some serious power from Bruce and Votto.
And why couldn’t they move Bourn to left? He’s older, his speed will deteriorate at least a little bit. It makes perfect sense. Sure up the outfield defense, get a leadoff hitter, and you have two of the fastest guys in baseball at the top of the order. Cincinnati just seemed like the perfect scenario to me.
So you want to pay a LFer 15-20 million to hit 10 HR’s and hit .270 with probably 170 K’s at that point?
Remember that money doesn’t buy what it used to due to inflated TV contracts. So yes, I want to pay a LF $15-20M to bring excellent defense, 40+ stolen bases, and a .350 OBP. The Reds desperately need a leadoff hitter. Teams tend to overpay a little bit when they’re desperate, as we all know.
Remember, this is the same offseason that has Josh Hamilton – with all the baggage he brings – wants $175M.
What Hamilton wants and gets are two different things. That being said, power hitters get paid the big bucks to drive in runs. Michael Bourn’s skill set decreases much quicker than power. Speed always is the first to go.
Bottom line is, in four years they would be paying Michael Bourn Matt Holliday type money for Juan Pierre type production after breaking the bank for Phillips and Votto already this past year.
Over the last 4 seasons (2009-2012) the only CF with a higher WAR than Michael Bourn (20.1) is Andrew McCutchen (20.6). For comparison’s sake, the next three are Josh Hamilton (18.2), Matt Kemp (18.0), and Shane Victorino (16.6). Even if we count just 2012, he’s third (6.4) behind Mike Trout (10.0) and McCutchen (7.4). He’s clearly one of the best CF in baseball, and on a 5 year deal, I don’t see him regressing nearly as much as you do.
Statistically, there is absolutely no reason why Bourn would regress so far to be reduced to a Juan Pierre comparison. And for what it’s worth, Pierre did steal a career-high 68 bases in 2010 at the age of 32, and 37 this season at 34; Pierre is now 35 years old. Bourn, currently 29, will be somewhere around 35 at the end of his contract.
And since you brought them up: Matt Holliday has only had two seasons with WAR over Bourn’s 6.4 – and one of them was at Coors Field; and Juan Pierre’s career high was 4.7 WAR.
I’m not saying he isn’t great right now, the issue is that his main offensive weapon(speed) is going to deteriorate quicker than the other players plate discipline or power will. If you could get him for 4 years, it’d be a steal… But he wants 6 or 7 years… During which he’s gonna be an albatross in the outfield
I get the feeling Ludwick is going to be playing left for a few years.
I don’t see how that “blocks” Billy Hamilton. Hamilton’s a SS, Bourn’s a CF. How is their lineup worse if Hamilton becomes the number two hitter, or drops Bourn to two?
Hamilton was moved to CF last season
Fair enough, I didn’t see that. However, in the National League, you prefer speed and defense to power at most positions. I don’t see why they couldn’t have both of them in the OF. It would definitely improve the team.
The issue with Borne is his SO rate.
Also his age, his legs aren’t going to keep for the length of the contract his liable to sign. He’ll end up like Soriano in Chicago minus the power
I don’t see exactly how the strikeout rate can be considered that big of an issue. Would it be better if he struck out less? Of course. But he still has a .350 OBP, which is good enough for a leadoff hitter. Jimmy Rollins is a great leadoff hitter, but his career high is .349. As long as you get on base 35% of the time, I can deal with the strikeouts.
Bourn has only topped .350 twice in his career. To expect him to do that for the life of his contract is probably not realistic.
Okay, fine. “4 of his 6 full seasons in the Majors, he has an OBP of .348 or higher. A .348 OBP is good enough for a leadoff hitter.”
You lost me at “Rollins is a great leadoff hitter.”
I’m a Phillies fan, but Rollins is NOT a great lead off hitter. Not even a good one. He is suited to be a number 3, 5, or 6 hitter. Just because he can steal bags, doesn’t make him a good lead off hitter.
Rollins is considered (by many, at least) to be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball because of his blend of speed and power.
The Reds do not need a high strike out rate guy at the top of the order. but His on base seems pretty good. I imagine he has a least a few more good years left. Oh and he is currently 29. someone above said he is 30.
Hamilton actually didn’t play a single inning in the outfield this season, but has been moved to CF for the AFL season. Many believe that he will have to change positions, but he has not yet played anywhere but SS in a full season league.
Hamilton is now a CFer. I think a lot of scouts said he wasn’t going to stick as SS anyway and he’s adjusted nicely to CF. He will be in CF and Didi will be at SS.
If the deal is for 2 years its not blocking Hamilton who is just starting to learn CF. Not to mention that Hamilton has barely played any games in AAA yet. Not sure Bourne would do a 2 year deal though. Maybe 2 and a club option.
I picked Philly, seems like their kinda deal
I hope you’re wrong.
Stay away Ruben. Not worth a pick and a 100 million dollar deal (assuming he goes for a Reyes type deal). Great defender, decent hitter, but K’s a lot and is left handed. Would not be a smart investment at all.
“Multiple Teams Interested in Michael Bourn”
Why?
Maybe because he is an All-Star, Gold Glove caliber CFer, and lead-off hitter?
Apparently people wanna overlook his SO issues
So a 6 WAR player doesn’t deserve a big payday because he strikes out alot? Even discounting last year, he posted OBP’s above or around .350 every year since 2009.
He’s 30… His legs are going to lose some of that speed by the end of his contract. Without that speed he’s basically Alfonso Soriano without power
Sure, but for the time being, there are plenty of teams out there in desperate need of his skillset.
Sure, for a couple years. Guess I’d rather save a bit of money and go with Pagan. Less length and cash, still a solid lead off
There’s a difference between players with speed and those with speed and power.
Players who only have speed tend to do a good job of keeping it in their old age. Examples include Ichiro Suzuki, Ricky Henderson, Kenny Lofton, Juan Pierre, etc.
Players with speed and power tend to lose their speed and focus on their power: A-Rod, Shawn Green, Soriano, so many others.
So I’m not 100% sure it is fair to assume speedy guys will suddenly see a drop in SB.
Didn’t Bourn have a power surge this year? watch out 😉
If you’re referring to the fact that the headline is pretty obvious, then +1.
I know for sure my jays are not making any BIG deals since AA is not allow to make long distance calls.
I wouldn’t mind him on the Nats but not for what he’s asking
How are the Dodgers a long shot? There outfield is stacked! No way are they a contender on Bourn. Its just an easy prediction/guess to choose the Dodgers because they have alot of money. There is no proof behind this prediction.
If Michael Bourn goes anywhere its going to be the Nationals or or Reds, Reds because they can use a leadoff guy and the Nationals because they tend to overpay outfielders, *cough* (Jayson Werth) *cough* LOL but seriously, Nationals are the favorites in my opinion and the Reds are in the mix…