Feb. 26: López wound up “only” requiring an internal brace procedure rather than a full Tommy John surgery/ligament reconstruction, Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune writes. López will still miss the entire 2026 season, but the internal brace route comes with a slightly shorter timeline than a full reconstruction. López now has a better chance of being available for Opening Day 2027.
Feb. 20: Twins right-hander Pablo López will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Earlier this week, the Twins revealed that he had tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament. He took a few days to explore a second opinion but it seems there was no avoiding the worst-case scenario.
It’ll be the second Tommy John procedure for López. His first was more than a decade ago. He’ll miss the entire 2026 season and hope to be ready early in the 2027 campaign, which will be the final season of his four-year, $73.5MM contract with the Twins. López is being paid $21.75MM both this season and next.
The Twins acquired López and a pair of prospects from the Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. He’s been a rocksteady performer near the top of Minnesota’s rotation for the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.68 ERA with even more impressive rate stats (26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 43.1 GB%). Metrics like SIERA (3.48) and FIP (3.44) feel he’s been a hair better than his already solid earned run average would indicate.
In 2025, López raced out of the gates with a 2.82 ERA and his typically strong rate stats through his first 11 starts (60 2/3 innings). A Grade 2 strain of his teres major suffered in early June wound up costing him about three months, however. López returned with three sharp starts in September, allowing four runs in 15 innings, before ending the season on the injured list due to a minor forearm strain.
The Twins said after the season that López could have pitched through the injury had the team been in the playoff hunt but opted to shut him down with their season already lost. He received a clean bill of health not long after and had a generally normal offseason. The UCL tear seemingly popped up during his first bullpen session this spring.
Although Minnesota tore the bullpen down last summer at the deadline and sold off several impending free agents (a total of 11 players), they opted not to completely rebuild this winter. After some early uncertainty about how they’d approach the offseason, the team’s sale of a minority stake to three new shareholders gave the front office the necessary space to make some modest additions. Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers all signed as free agents, and the Twins opted not to trade López, rotationmate Joe Ryan, catcher Ryan Jeffers (a free agent next winter) or franchise center fielder Byron Buxton.
New executive chair Tom Pohlad has been vocal about his desire to compete and his belief that the roster has a better chance at doing so than those outside the organization think. The Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez and also jumped into the Freddy Peralta bidding, with both of those late-offseason overtures coming after the ownership situation had gained some clarity. Obviously, neither came to fruition, but it stands to reason based on those two efforts that the Twins could at least consider going outside the organization, where Lucas Giolito and old friend Zack Littell are among the notable veterans who’ve yet to sign a contract.
With López formally out for the year, it’ll almost certainly fall to fellow right-hander Joe Ryan to take the mound on Opening Day. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from a season that was torched by an awful June (after which he went on the injured list due to a hip injury). Simeon Woods Richardson is out of minor league options and logged a 4.04 ERA in 111 1/3 innings last year (including a flat 3.00 ERA over his final 14 starts). He should be all but assured a rotation spot as well.
Homegrown former top prospects Zebby Matthews and David Festa will join deadline pickups Taj Bradley and Mick Abel in competing for Opening Day rotation spots, while prospects like Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas and Andrew Morris could challenge for innings as the season wears on, depending on health and performance in Triple-A.
Man, that sucks. All the best to him. Sorry Twins fans.
Yes, this is awful news. Definitely praying for a speedy recovery for Pablo Lopez, and for him to try to stay positive.
As for the Twins, I am curious if this might lead to them being more open to making some trades? Or do you think they already planned for the possibility that Lopez might miss time.
I always feel for these kids in this situation. At least there are not as many career enders as back in my day.
I don’t think they planned that because he started Spring Training fine after the standard physical.
At this point, I don’t think they throw on the towel, but for sure you can expect the rest of that fire sale should they not compete at the deadline.
Sucks indeed and since 2027 likely will be wiped out he will have plenty of time to heal for 2028 entering his free agent season.
Major blow for the Corkscrew Arnie fantasy baseball team!
WAT
A team is fortunate if two of four young pitchers step up, or do any thing like it.
It won’t help that the Twins don’t figure to be a particularly good defensive club.
Going to need Matthews, Abel, Bradley and Woods-Richardson to step up.
I’m not very familiar with the Twins rotation, so when I saw Matthews and Abel, my limited Bible knowledge had me thinking you were suggesting they’d need biblical forces to be successful.
Little prayer never hurt
It’s just a good thing that Mick Abel and Matt Cain are from different generations, so they could never be part of the same rotation/staff.
Mick Abel always looking over his shoulder would lead to bad outcomes, and probably surgery.
@bart
Tangentially, given how often Cain lost games in spite of pitching well (Kruk and Kuip always said “he got Cained”), it was exhausting how many articles started with “Cain not Able”.
Excellent!
I did not enjoy Cain’s start.
Twins season is over lol
Probably time to call The Boston Redsox again on a Ryan Trade…
We’ll give you 2 or 3 of (Sandoval, Crawford, Bello, Phillips, Eyanson, Monegro, Uberstine) but only if Ryan agrees to a pre-trade extention
S**t Happens when you both compete while rebuilding in misfortune
Should they just try to trade Ryan and buxton now or wait for them to get hurt to call it a rebuild
They went from 4th and 5 kinda wanting to go for it to 4th and 20. Time to punt.
Great analogy
Call the Redsox
The maddening thing about last year’s fire sale is that they sold so many good pieces for so little, and one of the guys they really *ought* to have traded, Lopez, they hung on to. In fact he should have been gone last offseason
Came here to say the same. It’s obviously easy to say it with hindsight, but even at the time Lopez was one of the most obvious should be traded players in the league. Baffling decision not to do it that now comes back hard to bite them.
He was on the IL with a shoulder injury during the trade deadline that cost him the rest of the season. Hard to trade a guy who’s not going to play the rest of the year
I take it that neither you nor Oddball are Twin fans?
Ryan for sure should of been traded and now def should be traded soon
Twins need to trade Ryan.
Send him to Chicago w Buxton for Shaw n whatever else they want in cubs system
Buxton has a no trade clause. Good luck.
Hate to see this.
Anytime someone is having a second Tommy John surgery done its quite an ordeal. Sad to see this for López and the twins
Did the Marlins get any good players when they traded Arraez?
Twins made out pretty well trading Arraez for Pablo.
Looked it up. Jacob Marsee seems to be the main get and he did ok in a short stint last year. The other 3 are still in the minors.
They did great in the trade. Lopez was hurt often and they pay his 42 million for the next two yrs doing nothing. A guy who had a history of injuries. He wont 9 more games that he lost for 73 million.
Well, lucky for the Twins, the only quality free agents left are pitchers. All they have to do is spend some money.
Twins need to either spend money on Giolito or Littell or trade off pieces now. Anything in between makes zero sense.
Buxton appears to be a fan fav so I don’t see him getting traded but I agree. Move any pieces of value.
It’s looking like our rotation will be Ryan/Ober/Bradley/Woods-Richardson/Matthews, with Festa/Abel/Prielipp waiting in the wings until someone gets hurt
2nd Tommy John Surgery. Just keep doing the same thing and expect a different result usually works out good.
Why do you think I missed something? You sound like you think you’re smarter than everybody else.
With luck he will be back on the hill by May 2027. Then if he proves himself healthy, tne Twins can dump 1/3 of his next year’s salary for one or two prospects at the 2027 deadline.
I’m trying to remember the last time previously the Twins extended a starting pitcher.
It might have been over a decade ago. Phil Hughes, who promptly developed TOS and never recovered from the surgery..
Who knows what 2027 will look like.
So sorry Twins fans.
Out this year and lockout next year may work for his advantage in coming back.
i am guessing that means he won’t be traded now. /S
This may be a reason why the Twins did not try to trade Lopez this offseason. The Twins were concerned Lopez may have been in need of a surgery, and the Twins did not want to appear to be unethical by discussing potential trades.
Any team trading for him would have had him examined so I’m not sure that’s the case. Somehow I think they really thought they’d be “competitive” or that they could at least sell that to the fans.
Unforseeable poop happens. Not everything needs to have a narrative for things to make sense for some. Sucks for Lopez and the Twins.
It may not be the first 2026 tj but for all Fantasy intents and purposes here it goes. Pablo Lopez.
Red Sox have a loooooottttt of pitching. Maybe Jeffers for Crawford and Early? Royce Lewis to plug third for Patrick Sandoval, Crawford, and a prospect??
Peobably time to call The Boston Redsox again on a Ryan Trade…
We’ll give you 2 or 3 of (Sandoval, Crawford, Bello, Phillips, Eyanson, Monegro, Uberstine) but only if Ryan agrees to a pre-trade extention
S**t Happens when you both compete while rebuilding in misfortune
They gonna have to take Duran as well.
– Some Red Sox fans
Guessing Ryan is even more untouchable now
Or more available LOL
I am an Astros supporter, but I felt genuinely sad for Pablo when I heard this. I hope it is successful and he is back in good form for 2027.
Possibly ready for opening day in ‘27? Even with it only being the internal brace surgery it’s still only means June/July in ‘27 instead of Sept/Oct. I guess opening day in ‘27 could be in July.