Headlines

  • Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez
  • Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff
  • Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
  • Bobby Jenks Passes Away
  • Braves Release Alex Verdugo
  • Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025 Trade Deadline Outlook Series
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Would An August 15 Deadline Have Made A Difference?

By charliewilmoth | August 16, 2013 at 12:51am CDT

We're now two weeks removed from a quiet July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. As it became clear that there wasn't going to be much activity, many commentators suggested that the second Wild Card was to blame. A few writers, including FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, proposed that MLB move its non-waiver deadline, perhaps to August 10 or August 15.

Of course, it may be that quiet trading deadlines aren't a bad thing, and therefore aren't a problem that needs to be solved. Maybe it's better for the game if non-contending teams act like they care for the entire year, not just through July. Maybe we don't want guns-for-hire changing teams right before the home stretch, rendering successful teams unfamiliar and unsuccessful teams irrelevant. Perhaps what happened this year is just fine.

Now that August 15 has come and gone, though, it's worth revisiting Morosi's suggestion. What we find is that it's far from clear that the second Wild Card had any more than a minor impact this year, and that it's unlikely that moving the non-waiver deadline would have had much of an effect on this year's lack of activity. 

Here are the standings as of July 31. In the National League, the Braves, Pirates and Dodgers led their respective divisions, just as they do now. The Cardinals and Reds remained safely ahead of all other teams in the Wild Card race, just as they are now. And the only other team with a significant shot at the playoffs was the Diamondbacks. That's still the case.

In the American League, the Red Sox and Tigers led their divisions and still hold those positions. In the AL West, the Athletics and Rangers have switched positions, but both remain in strong contention for playoff spots. The Rays remain in line for a Wild card spot, just as they did two weeks ago. The Orioles and Indians remain on the fringes of the Wild Card race, and the Yankees aren't any further out of it now than they were then. And despite their much-ballyhooed surge, the Royals are now 5.5 games out of the last playoff spot, only a half a game closer than they were two weeks ago.

In other words, in the last two weeks, there have been few changes in the playoff picture that would suggest a large impact on teams' willingness to trade. Also, the second Wild Card doesn't appear to be much of a factor — it didn't matter much at the deadline, and it wouldn't have if the deadline had been August 15. Since no team is currently running away with the top Wild Card spot in either league, and no team was running away with either of those spots as of July 31, it's hard to imagine the extra Wild Card had much impact on teams' thinking, particularly given that many of the outside-looking-in teams, both then and now, were or are in the running for division titles as well as Wild Card berths. A one-Wild-Card playoff system would have altered the playoff hopes of the Orioles, Rangers, Yankees and Indians to varying degrees at different times, but probably not enough to make any of them sellers, and it would have had virtually no impact on teams' playoff chances in the National League.

This isn't to say that Morosi's proposal was a bad one. It's possible that, in some future season, the second Wild Card really will cloud the playoff picture, and a later deadline really might provide clarity. But those things did not, or would not have, mattered much this season.

So what was the real explanation for the lack of activity at the deadline this year? Shortly before the deadline, MLBTR outlined some reasons why sellers weren't motivated, including the proliferation of long-term contracts for young players and changes to rules governing compensation draft picks. Perhaps the most compelling, though, is that, for business reasons, it didn't make much sense for some non-contenders to give up on their seasons, particularly when the likely reward for trading was minimal.

The Phillies provide a good case study. In prior seasons, a team like the Phils might have sold, but this year, they didn't. In the past few weeks, the Phillies have attempted to make a splash, signing Chase Utley to an extension and reaching a deal with Cuban righty Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (an agreement that now appears to be in jeopardy). The merit of the Phillies' decision to hold on to their players is, perhaps, somewhat debatable, but based on their trade chips' contracts (Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon) or performance (Michael Young, Carlos Ruiz) or both, it would have been hard for the Phillies to get much in return. If you're a big-market team with lots of money, there isn't that much value in trading veterans for prospects who might top out as average players.That's especially true if, as in the cases of Lee, Rollins and Utley, the players you have to offer are big-name stars.

The Phillies' situation typified much of what happened at the trade deadline this year. The issue was that they were a big-market team given the unappetizing choice of trading big-name players for what would amount to very little.

Throughout baseball, teams merely shrugged at the deadline, not because of playoff races, but because being active really didn't benefit them. Two of the Giants' main trade chips, for example, were Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence. Both those players are candidates to receive qualifying offers after the season, but they would lose that staus if they were traded. And so the Giants, who won the World Series last year and stood to benefit, from a P.R. perspective, from basking in its glow as long as possible, stood pat.

The Mariners, too, might have been sellers, but most of their tradable veterans (Kendrys Morales, Mike Morse, Raul Ibanez) had little defensive value and didn't fit well with other contenders. So, with little to gain from trading, they too stood pat. The Royals should benefit from pursuing their first winning season since 2003, and so they actively became buyers despite their playoff chances at the deadline being dubious at best.

Since the non-waiver deadline, there have been several trades, the highest-profile of which was the Rangers' deal for Alex Rios. But buyers have been remained circumspect, as shown in Jeff Todd's list of players who have cleared waivers. The list includes players like Dan Haren, Justin Morneau and Matt Lindstrom, who are in the last years of their contracts and would appear to offer at least some chance of helping a contender down the stretch. Haren and Morneau aren't nearly the players they once were, but to claim them and assume the remainder of their contracts would only have cost contending teams only a few million dollars per player. No team bit. That Lindstrom passed through waivers might be even more surprising, since he's owed less than $1MM for the rest of the year, plus a $500K buyout. While he isn't having his best year, he's a perfectly functional big-league reliever who gets ground balls and throws in the mid-90s. And yet no one wanted him.

So what's going on here? This year, teams that traditionally would have been sellers had other priorities — keeping the team together, pursuing a winning season, and so on. Teams that traditionally might be buyers were circumspect, guarding their prospects and, in some cases, their wallets. Maybe the conditions that shape the market will change next year. Having so many bigger-market teams, like the Phillies, Giants, Mets and Mariners, out of the running probably didn't help this season, for example. But the second Wild Card wasn't much of a factor in 2013, and moving the deadline to mid-August probably wouldn't have changed much, either. It doesn't matter when you schedule the dance if no one wants to go.

Share 2 Retweet 15 Send via email0

Uncategorized

Cardinals To Promote Kolten Wong
Main
Mutual Interest Between Rays, Delmon Young
View Comments (0)
Post a Comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

  • Top Stories
  • Recent

Nationals Fire PBO Mike Rizzo, Manager Dave Martinez

Brewers Activate Brandon Woodruff

Clarke Schmidt Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

Bobby Jenks Passes Away

Braves Release Alex Verdugo

Top 40 Trade Candidates For The 2025 Deadline

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Ryan McMahon

Royals Interested In Bryan Reynolds

Rangers Option Josh Jung

Kevin Pillar Announces Retirement

Braves Place Spencer Schwellenbach On IL With Elbow Fracture

Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury

Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

Tucker Barnhart To Retire

Tyler Mahle To Be Sidelined Beyond Trade Deadline

Reds Release Jeimer Candelario

Dave Parker Passes Away

Griffin Canning Diagnosed With Ruptured Achilles

White Sox Sign Kyle Tyler To Minor League Deal

Nationals Sign Luis Garcia

Poll: The Yankees’ Biggest Need At The Deadline

Yankees Place Mark Leiter Jr. On IL With Fibular Head Stress Fracture

Rhys Hoskins Expects To Be Out Roughly Six Weeks

Yankees Moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. Back To Second Base

White Sox Reinstate Luis Robert Jr.

Gary Sánchez Likely To Miss 8-10 Weeks

Mets Designate Zach Pop For Assignment

Red Sox Select Isaiah Campbell

MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

Latest Rumors & News

Latest Rumors & News

  • Sandy Alcantara Rumors
  • Luis Robert Rumors
  • Alex Bregman Rumors

 

Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

MLBTR Features

MLBTR Features

  • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
  • Front Office Originals
  • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
  • MLBTR Podcast
  • Trade Deadline Outlook Series
  • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
  • Contract Tracker
  • Transaction Tracker
  • Extension Tracker
  • Agency Database
  • MLBTR On Twitter
  • MLBTR On Facebook
  • Team Facebook Pages
  • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

Rumors By Team

  • Angels Rumors
  • Astros Rumors
  • Athletics Rumors
  • Blue Jays Rumors
  • Braves Rumors
  • Brewers Rumors
  • Cardinals Rumors
  • Cubs Rumors
  • Diamondbacks Rumors
  • Dodgers Rumors
  • Giants Rumors
  • Guardians Rumors
  • Mariners Rumors
  • Marlins Rumors
  • Mets Rumors
  • Nationals Rumors
  • Orioles Rumors
  • Padres Rumors
  • Phillies Rumors
  • Pirates Rumors
  • Rangers Rumors
  • Rays Rumors
  • Red Sox Rumors
  • Reds Rumors
  • Rockies Rumors
  • Royals Rumors
  • Tigers Rumors
  • Twins Rumors
  • White Sox Rumors
  • Yankees Rumors

Navigation

  • Sitemap
  • Archives
  • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

MLBTR INFO

  • Advertise
  • About
  • Commenting Policy
  • Privacy Policy

Connect

  • Contact Us
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • RSS Feed

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top

Register

Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version