The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.
As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.
The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.
Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.
Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.
Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.
For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.
But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.
Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.
That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.
Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.
Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.
Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.
Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.
Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.
That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.
If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.
It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.
Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images
“Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy…”
Maybe so but can he play baseball?!
Maybe not. I was a big fan, but he is still striking out a lot, and has 36 errors in 1365 IPs. Not deal-breakers, but certainly a consideration.
Good-looking ball player, great jaw. The ball pops right off the bat you can hear it all over the park!
We’re not selling jeans here guys!
Wrong Aiden Miller Link.
You can have Wandy Peralta for a bucket of balls and a signed Harper card.
Trading Marsh is nonsense unless they include him a deal for Clase and Kwan, along with Abel, Miller and couple other prospects like Escobar.
Trading Miller is the nonsense. They can have Marsh.
Marsh has been hitting better and has been fairly consistent over his career. He is a good defender in the OF and is a good option out of the nine hole. Three years of team control at what will likely remain an affordable contract through the ’28 season, have to keep Marsh. Keplar is a dog with fleas. He should be DFA’d after the trade deadline.
Marsh is not a stud – the D in center is too up and down for my taste. But overall if you compare to what is out there in all of baseball as far as CF options he has been right around the top ten. So when one looks to fix a problem, you really need to focus on bigger issues.
So if you trade Marsh, you better get some real value back in return that fixes something for a few years and not a rental reliever, as now we are counting upon a 21 year old prospect to take over in center.
I agree on Marsh. He is literally the least flashy players in baseball, but he does everything just well enough to be a very solid player without doing anything well.
He’s a bearded Shin Soo-Choo.
I honestly don’t think anybody should be untouchable in the Phillies system.
Idk I figure you gotta hold painter with Suarez on his way to free agency and wheeler aging and possibly committed to retiring in a couple years.
They’d be dumb to trade anyone of actual value as a prospect for a RP. I don’t care how much control they have, RP are too sparingly used and volatile to be worth that much.
Singing my tune. Although if they really want a Jhoan Duran or that ilk, it will take one of the top guys. And I will not be a happy guy.
I quite like Durán. But I feel like the Twins aren’t going to move a controllable arm like that for anything less than $1.40 or more on the dollar. Why shouldn’t they, after all?
I’ll give the Phils Soto back for Chace. Keep Seth Johnson as the parting gift!
Danny Coulombe is probably right up there with Bryan Baker, doesnt have the team control, but he is a lefty and has a cheap contract. He will command a first round pick plus I’d say, his market is heating up as we speak. Get your oven mitts on if you are interested in Coulombe.
no team control on Coulombe, baker has a few years of team control. Coulombe would demand far far less in the trade market. He is the sort of guy that gets moved for a barely top 30 org prospect.
also note- there are virtually no first rounders that can even be swapped anymore. only competative balance picks can be traded, and a few of them have already been moved (can only trade them once)
I dont know, lefty relievers are the premium and the goal of a trade is to win this year. Coulombe has a 0.5 ERA this season and spent a month on the IR – a month of rest.
I think Coulombe is probably the most sought after RP in baseball at the trade deadline.
Like the two pitchers they sent to the Angels last year for two months of a reliever.
Painter and Abel can solve the problem but DUMBrowski takes pride in nuking farm systems. It took the Tigers a solid decade to recover and the Red Sox are still trying to get back.
That decade it took Tigers was also due to Avila. They had to restart rebuild after his failed attempt.
Yeah, Avila only drafted and traded for Skubal, Mize, Olson, Montero, Jobe, Vest, Lange, Foley, Brieske, Hurter, Rogers, Dingler, Torkelson, Meadows, Greene, Perez, Carpenter and Keith. He also signed Javy, which finally is working out. Avila’s drafting was excellent. He was also great in his selections of PTBNL. He just couldn’t sign FA pitchers worth a damn.
Mize and Tork were both #1 overall. Greene and Jobe were both top 5 picks. Drafting in the top 5 doesn’t take much skill, everyone has an idea of who will be going those spots.
The Olson trade was great. Skubal and Carpenter were great picks in mid rounds. Rogers is a back up. Meadows was decent down stretch last season and has yet to do much this year. Baez has been great this season, but in the end the contract as a whole was and still will be a bad signing.
Vest is the only one contributing to the team from his first 3 drafts. Then there’s the Austin Meadows trade.
So again that 10 year rebuild was in part due to Avila.
He started with nothing, worse than an MLB expansion team (they get to draft a player from every team’s organization not on a 15 player protected list).
The Phillies farm system is currently ranked 4th with 6 in the top 100. When DD came they were in the bottom half near the bottom. This doesn’t include the prospect they traded for Luzardo last winter. This is with the team in the playoffs 3 years in a row. Sometimes you have to trade prospects to get a team over the top. He’s not going to trade Painter though.
I would love to land Clase and Kwan, an idea I read on ESPN.
Guards would be accepting a rebuild at that point. Which might not be the worst outcome. Wait for Bazzana, Delauter, and Genao.
They don’t have the TOR pitching they typically do. Williams and Bibee have looked more like mid rotation arms. They need a ton of bats.
Unless they are overwhelmed, the Guards aren’t trading either Kwan or Clase this year. Kwan may go during the winter or at next year’s trade deadline as he has not engaged in contract extension talks. I believe it’s been rumored he wants to play on the West Coast.
the problem is your reading espn articles. garbage.
I don’t take any of it too seriously. Fans can dream for their teams. Espn is trash, but I do still read some articles. Force of habit I suppose.
It would take all six prospects in the top 100 to even get a look. Clase has one of the best contracts you will ever see and Kwan still has 1.5 years left before FA.
To be accurate, Kwan has 2,5 years of control through 2027. Clase has 3.5 years of control through 2028.
Phillies Dodgers Yankees bidding war for a closer
Williams is pitching great.
I’m not sure if two division rivals would line up on a trade, but I wouldn’t mind the Braves swinging a deal that sends a RP to Philly in exchange for Marsh. Marsh could plug into LF and (occasionally) CF, which would give the Braves some cheap insurance if Profar (likely) proves a product of the PEDs.
Also, if it is a choice between the Phillies or the Mets, I’d much rather see Philly win the division.
Mets are very hate-able.
Would marsh and a 10-15 prospect entice the padres to move Suarez or Adam?
Miller and Abel for Clase. Who says no?
Wow – Phils break the phone after throwing it.
Reportedly, Cleveland had interest in Justin Crawford when the Philllies asked about Clase last season. They need a center fielder and will want controllable MLB pieces in return for Clase. It will take a lot to get Clase or Cleveland just keeps him.
Cleveland can keep their reliever and the Phillies need to keep Crawford in AAA until the power shows up.
He has 40 grade power. Looks to me that you will be waiting for a long time.
Agreed. Besides relievers, I want a righty OF with the highest OPS possible. This hot/cold lineup needs another one swing savior to win a championship.
I’ve seen video of Justin Crawford hitting the ball 380 feet into the seats. The power is there, the launch angle isn’t.
Marsh & Able and a lower piece
Cleveland definitely says no and blocks the number. There is absolutely nothing exciting about Marsh. He also can’t hit lefties which would not help Cleveland. Less player control and much less talent.
They should look into this Jeff Hoffman fellow
Hoff Not great in playoffs .
I don’t think PHI should trade high end prospects for relievers.
If there is a good controllable OF on the market make the deal but not for relievers they are way to volatile.
While a good closer would definitely help this pen, they need more than one arm out there.
Finnigan and Soroka (put him in the pen) from Washington
Bednar or Santana from PIT
Suarez or Adam from SD if SD wants an OF
Gaddis or smith from CLE
Kittredge with BAL
Erceg and Harvey is KC sells
Martin from TEX
Can all be acquired at a much lower prospect cost than Clase, Duran, Jax.
On the OF front of Qwan is available go all in same for if PIT wants to get crazy and trade Cruz.
I’d be willing to take a chance on Robert Jr. if the price was right.
Mullins is a rental so not that interested unless it’s an under pay.
I know he’s been terrible this year but a buy low on Jake McCarthy intrigues me a lot.
Idk if the twins would do it but willi Castro is a really good player who can handle CF.
Cade Smith of Cleveland will be as or more costly as Clase. The reason that Cleveland may trade Clase is they have Cade Smith to replace him.
Gaddis is controllable too. Cleveland will not give him away either.
“I don’t think PHI should trade high end prospects for relievers.”
*immediately lists any relief pitcher that would cost high end prospects*
Yeah there’s a number of names on that list that will cost serious prospects.
Kittredge will be cheap if Philly likes him.
I may just be a biased Guardians fan, but I honestly think Cade Smith would cost more than anyone on that list — including Clase, Duran, or Jax.
When you combine his ability with another 4.5 years of control and the fact that his low career save total would keep his cost lower in arbitration, I think you’d have to give up quite a bit for him. I’m not advocating the Guardians to trade him though, and I’d make him the closer if/when Clase is traded.
But like you said, you’d be looking at guys like Kittredge that are solid but not high end if you’re really not interested in dealing top prospects. And even then, there’s always a bidding war on relievers at the deadline because the demand always far exceeds the supply.
Why would the Phillies want Marsh in CF when they could have Rojas and his five something OPS there every day?
I see every team in baseball solving bullpen issues from within but the Phillies with two guys – Painter and Abel – with loud arms that should get the job done insist on going for another ten year rebuild as if that is the owners master plan.
I guess that Juan Soto contract made the Phillies owner fill up his Depends.
You linked to the BR page of Aidan Miller of Eastern Mennonite U.
If they aren’t called the Flying Deutschmen I’ll be disappointed
Which oddly links to the Phillies Aidan Millers bullpen wiki page .
Also not news – playoff contenders searching for cost controlled starters with era below 3.00
I would prefer “Phillies reportedly targeting relievers who can control their pitches.”
Im sure they could get Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto from the Os for Miller.
The sick thing is, I can see them doing it. I could see them grabbing Austin Hays or McCutchen too. No joke bc I’ve seen miserable stuff like that happen over the past 40 yrs.
Marsh is now a veteran outfielder on pace for a blistering 6 home runs and 42 RBI. He’s totally expendable. He only looks like a hitter because Rojas is his platoon partner. To make a playoff run this year, we need an impact outfielder and at least one quality reliever. Think Buxton plus Jax. Think Reynolds plus Bednar. I’m not sure we can pull that off nor am I sure we should give up the farm to do it if we can.
I would not part with a piece of the farm for all four.
The Farm would be for Jackson Merrill, not Reynolds or Buxton.
If the Phillies can get Duran, Coulombe and Bader from the Twins, that sets them up in the bullpen and center even if you platoon Bader with Marsh in center. Then you get Reynolds from the Pirates to play left and Santana for the bullpen. I thinking that could all be done without losing Painter. If they want a major impact bat, then that’s going to be an empty the cabinets move. Here’s one for the haters, Trevor Bauer is still available. Give him a shot and maybe he goes in the pen to pitch the middle innings?
If he stinks, you lose nothing. If he’s good you might have a playoff weapon.
If it were up to me Trevor Bauer would have been pitching for the Phillies immediately after the Dodgers released him.
Then we are all very happy that it was not up to you. The relentless championing of that jerk is only explainable by the manosphere theory of our current sociological climate.
The last that I checked, his NPB team sent him to the minors over there.
The Phil’s should be selling. Just not good enough to sink prospects into a one and done postseason or bust mentality. The loser of the east stands a good chance of even missing the playoffs completely. Not worth giving up the future.
I always get a kick out of everyone who gets stuck on you can’t trade our top prospect…..
They’re “prospects” or in other’s words, “fool’s gold”. Just because they were so talented when drafted and showing great numbers in the minors does not mean they are going to be at the MLB level.
Take more recently Spencer Howard. What has he done at the MLB level and where is he now? In the past Dominic Brown or Jeff Stone. Or Don Carmen who was to be the next Steve Carlton or Rick Schu who was to be the next Mike Schmidt. I remember fans saying you can’t trade these top prospects. Where did they get and produce in the majors?
Get off the you can’t trade our top prospect…. trip. They are just that, prospects. Until they get to the majors and prove themselves they are nothing more than a fool’s gold.
Fools gold might be harsh, but, especially for positional prospects I’m very open to trading for a guy who has proven he can play in the league.
@Hagar – I wonder if DD is playing a deflection game. Rumors are that he will pay to acquire a top shelf closer type, but they also drafted Gage and one other guy that have a shot at helping in September and absolutely loaded up on college pitching in the draft.
Maybe he adds a lower tier pen arm and goes after a controllable outfielder with the prospect capital instead.
As far as some of the posturing on here that “prospects are fool’s gold”, that only applies when one is talking about certain levels of prospects. Sure, at best they are a 50/50 proposition for the most part but the elite tier prospects should only be sold for the highest return. And I love the folks that think that the Phils should be sellers – fantasy baseball is where they belong.
If people on here think they should be sellers they should switch to following the WNBA
My reference to fool’s gold is… fans believing a top prospect is gold and there is no way they would part with that prospect player no matter what. They believe that player will be what they are ranked. When in reality most top prospects never really flourish in the majors or even make it to the majors. Fans put too much belief in prospects. Anyone who believes a top prospect is untouchable is fooled by the prospect being label as their gold ranking or what they are doing in the minors. As said, “most” top prospects never pan out in the majors.
Making it to the majors and being that top player has very little to do with how good they are against high school, college, or minor league opponents. It mostly has to do with their drive, determination, their ability to learn and the willingness to make adjustments as they make their way up to the big stage. If they don’t have those characteristics with their playing talent. They are nothing more than a fool’s gold to fans. For a fan to not want to give up a golden top prospect no matter what IS foolish.
The Phillies have to straddle improving this team while still setting themselves up for a financially sustainable successful future. Painter is basically untouchable especially since it would be selling a little low right now as he struggles a bit in his return from injury. Miller I would put in that class as well, just because where else is a position player coming from in this farm system any time soon? I’d hope Tait, Abel, Escobar, etc are enough to get what they need. I’d go as all-in as possible without dealing those top guys, then look to take a small step back next season. Unfortunately they host the All-Star game next season and it’s the 250th. But I’d look to trade Wheeler in the off-season. The Phillies would still have plenty of starting pitching, and maybe a pitching desperate team like the Orioles would pay for him. Replacing Tait with Basallo would be great work. Maybe that is possible if the Phillies eat some of Wheeler’s salary? He is still a top 3 pitcher in the sport. Basallo, Miller, and Crawford looks like the makings of a competitive core.
“Meanwhile” must START the sentence. It cannot come in the middle, between commas.