11:14am: Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports offers a different take (on Twitter), as sources have indicated to him that Scherzer is "definitely in play." While nothing is imminent, says Passan, teams are aware that Scherzer can be had.
7:15am: The Tigers are telling teams they're not optimistic about completing a contract extension with Max Scherzer, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (Twitter link). However, despite the fact that Scherzer is a year away from free agency, Detroit has no plans to deal him, Stark adds.
The Tigers' plans to keep Scherzer come as no real surprise, given the fact that the team fully expects to contend again this season. Similarly, considering the reigning Cy Young winner is a Scott Boras client, a long-term extension prior to free agency would be a long shot. In the wake of last month's Prince Fielder trade, GM Dave Dombrowski suggested the savings might make an extension for Scherzer more "possible," but stopped short of calling a new deal "probable."
Scherzer is slated to earn about $13.6MM in arbitration for 2014, according to Matt Swartz's projection model.
If they don’t want to trade him, then it makes sense not to negotiate right now. His value is probably at its highest right now. 2013 wasn’t an aberration, but it was still above his career norms in many areas.
I never liked the idea that a contender like the Tigers would trade Scherzer, who’s one of their best players. That said, this year’s Tigers don’t seen as good as last year’s, given the loss of Fielder and Fister, so it might be harder for them to win in Scherzer’s final contract year.
The biggest wild card to me is Rick Porcello. If Jeff Jones can work with him on a pitch to throw effectively against lefties then he could be as good as Fister, but right now teams just load the lineup with lefties and tee off. They’ll need him to go deeper into games because Smyly, coming from the bullpen to the rotation, will likely have his innings limited a bit this season.
Rick improved a lot against lefties this year. His walks went down, K’s went up… take out one fluke start against the Angels and he’s almost indistinguishable from Fister last season. His big problem is his inability to pitch from the stretch. I read an article about how his overall BAA is league average, but a ridiculous number of the runners he allows score becos he can’t get outs from the stretch. Even so, with better infield defense, I expect him to take some huge leaps this year.
I guess I meant an effective strikeout pitch against lefties, though that could be extended to righties as well. He does seem to struggle to get the big out when runners are on base. Good observation.
We really don’t know if the Tigers are better for 2014 because our base line of reference is the past 2 years. Power baseball,excellent SP, station-to station running, and below average defense in ’12 and ’13. We now are not “better or worse” but different. Less power, need for #4 & #5 SP to step up, much better defense, and speed for the basepaths,(as long as they get on base).
I think if they had won the World Series this year they may have been a bit more willing to trade him to replenish their system for the long term. As it stands, there’s no real trade they can make with him that would put them in a better position to win it all in 2014.
Good. I like Scherzer, and he is obviously a great pitcher, but I don’t like the idea of him on a long, 20MM+ AAV deal, well into his 30’s. Long deals for power pitchers rarely turn out well for the team.
Thank you for talking some sense. Seems many think money just comes from nothing, and that Scherzer is guaranteed to win a Cy Young every year, now that he did last year.
Amen. Good as Max was last year, I’m still not sold on him holding up consistently over a long contract. I think JV and Anibal are a good enough 1-2 punch over the long term than you can see what both Max and Rick show this year and then decide if you need to spend big to retain Max or can bump Rick up or be fine with a cheaper option in the middle of the rotation. There’s nothing they could get in trade this year that would make them better in 2014 or in the long term.
I think the data supports that being a scott boras client means he will hit free agency regardless of what the tigers can offer. While there are those that do sign extensions while being a boras client they are the exception. For every Weaver or Varitek there are more than a few Fielders and Ellsbury’s. When you draft (or trade for) “a boras” you know it is six and out.
Kinda figured. I assumed they’d look to extend Cabrera and/or Jackson before Max.
The trade of Prince gave the Tigers some more room to sign Max to a contract extension, but with his stellar year and Boras being his agent, I’m not surprised they haven’t reached an agreement or expect to in the near future.
This makes the Fister trade even more questionable. I’m not a Detroit fan, but I’m still scratching my head on this one!
Baseball is a business first, and foremost. With Scherzer coming off a Cy Young winning year, you don’t pay him right now. You make him prove he can do it again, then you pay him at the end of this season (if you can), on a contract that isn’t much more (if any), than it would be today. And you are feeling better about it, knowing that he’s done it for a few years in a row, and the Cy Young year wasn’t a mirage.
Why not see if Max can reproduce the same results in the last year of his contract? I think that the Tigers are going to use the money they saved in the Fielder trade to sign Cabrera and maybe let Max sign elsewhere.
DD is an expert in dealing with other teams. He does not make media mistakes like speaking off the cuff to other GMs.
Why would he tell other teams that Scherzer is unsignable?
What strategic value does it have?
My best guess is that it is a message to frequent MLBTR reader Max Scherzer. He would like Max to help him convince Boras that now is the time to get the extension. Boras is not talking with the Tigers now… but DD would like him to.
There’s a HUGE difference between extension and re-signing a guy. Extension means this offseason, re-signing him would be next offseason. This does NOT mean Max is gone. This means he’ll play out his arb year. Get a grip, Tigers fans.
How many Boras superstar clients sign with their incumbent “mid market” team when they hit free agency?
The loss of “grip” is because Scherzer is a Boras client.
[Detroit is a mid-market, though they do not act it in their payroll…eventually that has to change].
Detroit has a team in every major pro sports league (MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL). As of March 2013 the Tigers were ranked the #12 most valuable MLB team by Forbes. Close to mid-market, but they are probably top 10 at this point.
I still think I would have rather seen them trade Scherzer than Fister. I’m almost as confident in the rotation with Fister in it than with Scherzer in it. However, the return for Scherzer would have been huge, while we traded Fister for peanuts. Not to mention, we could have traded Porcello too and got a similar return than we got for Fister. By doing this, the Tigers would have freed up over 20M in salary to do whatever they want with (try and sign Garza, Choo, anyone else), on top of that, we would have gotten a good haul of prospects for Scherzer, not to mention probably some bullpen help and a mid-tier prospect for Porcello.
Seems to me that Scherzer would bring a lesser return that Fister since he only has 1 year of team control left. If that is the case DET would be better of holding on to him and tendering him a QO. First round draft pick + year of Scherzer is worth more to the Tigers than what they got for Fister.
I’m not sure it would have been humanly possible to trade Scherzer and get a lesser return than what the Tigers got for Fister.
The question now is: Can a Scherzer trade bring in a return that is worth more than 1yr of Max and a first round pick. What if we could get a cost controlled SP that can win 12 to 15+games a year for 3-4 more years for us plus bullpen help?
Three team trade, anyone?
Hard to set up a three team trade before there is even a 2 team trade in the works….
Well I know that, I’m just saying I love 3 team trades, and I wouldn’t mind another one here. But what would the Tigers want in return? Another OF? If Rajai will be a Super 4th OF. Help at the catcher position? I’m not all that sure what their needs are this offseason.
Bullpen help, namely 6th/7th/8th inning guys. Another left handed power bat would be nice, but doesn’t look like we’re going after any, nor right handers for that matter (unless you believe the Matt Kemp talk).
This completely surprises me. I know baseball is a business and money yadda yadda, but didn’t the owner say he wanted to win before he dies? Why would you rip apart a rotation that is so good? First Fister and now possibly Scherzer. This seems crazy to me unless you’re getting an insane return of great MLB ready SP’s in return.
I know he hasn’t been traded yet, but the thought alone…
Here is Arte Moreno’s big chance for 2014 !
I can definitely see something based around Scherzer for Kemp/Ethier
This rumor of his availability makes no sense because of the lack of SP depth the Tigers have now.
Scherzer
Smyly
Verlander
Porcello
Sanchez
The possible replacement starters if any of the above get injured…
Verhagen (2 years away?), Crosby (Better for the bullpen), Alvarez, Lobstein (1 year away?), Jurrjens (needs major work)
And Ray, but not until Sept at the earliest according to Tiger scouts.
It is more surprising that noone has written about the lack of SP depth that the Tigers have if two of the rotation are injured.
The fact that the Tigers relied on 6 starters for the whole of 2013 is an enigma (I think).
I still contest that SP depth will become more of an issue as spring training nears and the bullpen slots fill as remaining relievers and closers, who should become more receptive to the idea of becoming setup men, price decreases.
Any trade would have to include a current major league SP
So how did that Prince trade improve the Tigers’ roster (not pocketbooks) at all if it was not meant to facilitate a long-term Scherzer deal?
It helps facilitate a long-term Miquel Cabrera deal.
They may still resign him after next season with that money. They just aren’t going to extend him now. I don’t see how an extension now makes sense for anybody. If they aren’t able to keep , they get somebody else.
Mariners want price and have money but don’t want to move Walker so Scherzer and Dirks for Paxton and Zunio? Maybe Tigers then trade McCann, Worth and Hill for Revere?
Have you taken into account who else is going to be on the market next year? No?
they yankees will be looking for pitching next year
kuroda will probably retire and CC might be on his last year in 2015 or a non-tender
Scherzer would be a mistake for the Yankees, seeing as he is more of a fly ball pitcher. I could easily see Scherzer’s ERA jump into the 4+ range in that stadium.
is he?
i’ve read he was average in 2012 and figured out a killer curve ball for last season. for 2012 weren’t verlander and fister the killer tigers pitchers and scherzer just an average one?