At the outset of the offseason, it seemed highly likely that the Rays would deal ace David Price. Presumably, Tampa hoped to bring in the kind of haul that James Shields commanded last year. (That trade brought back a return that included AL ROY Wil Myers and top prospect Jake Odorizzi.) As with Shields at the time he was dealt, Price comes with two more years of team control, making now a seemingly opportune moment to maximize his return.
But the market for Price has apparently been slow to develop. Last we've heard, the club may be considering holding onto the 2012 AL Cy Young winner, at least to start the season. Though a trade may still be the most likely result, its timing is now in question. Indeed, there have not been any recent reports of traction in talks.
So, MLBTR readers: when do you think Price will finally be dealt — if at all?
Honestly, unless the Rays just bomb out next year, Price is either getting traded for an enormous overpay before ST, or for a more reasonable cost next offseason.
I agree he’s not getting traded. He’s less valuable than the Rays want him to be (lot of mileage on the arm and he’s only got 2 years left), and the league is getting wary of dealing with them after the Royals fleecing. Unless the Dodgers go crazy I don’t see it happening at all.
why should the “league” be wary of dealing with them? Its not like the Rays put a gun to the Royals head and said “take this or else son!” It takes two sides to agree on a trade.
He will be traded a little after tanaka signs. If he doesn’t then come the deadline he would be moved then. But I see it happening a week after tanaka signs cuz teams will start to scramble then.
Once Tanaka signs I think we’ll see a flurry of moves revolving around SP.
I wonder if Scherzer will be traded first.
The cost for Scherzer is likely to be considerably lower than Price.
… And the Tigers could actually SAVE money by trading Scherzer and signing Tanaka instead of giving Scherzer an extension.
Though you’re saying this as if Tanaka is guaranteed to have success. Not that I don’t disagree with your logic, but Tanaka is just as certain to suceed as an unproven top prospect.
Scherzer may be getting to the point of being unsignable.
If you assume that he is unsignable, why not spend the Scherzer money on Tanaka?
Interesting question:
Who will have more value for the next 5 years?
Tanaka is younger and more marketable internationally.
Scherzer is a clear #1 right now.
Tanaka is not yet at his peak, so will likely be getting better.
Scherzer is likely to be in decline, but his ceiling may be at a level that Tanaka will never get to.
You say he is unsignable as if the Tigers can’t afford him. If anything, the Tigers have been one of the biggest spenders in recent history. True, Cabrera becomes a free agent after 2015 and the Tigers will probably do anything they can to re-sign him. But with players like V-Mart and Hunter becoming free agents, there will be some payroll left to spend (granted that those two don’t get a pay increase, which I would be surprised if they did). Not to mention the Fielder trade did clear some payroll as well.
I’m not saying I disagree with your logic, but I’m just saying the route of Tanaka could go either way. I think he will succeed, but he could always go the route of a Dice-K or Igawa career. You just never know with an unproven player who has yet to play under the lights of a MLB game.
Why would the Tigers trade Scherzer? They are trying to win a World Series NOW. Trading the reigning Cy Young winner for a “considerably lower” price than Price makes no sense whatsoever for a team who is the heavy favorite to win their division.
Tanaka for 6+ years and a good prospect or prospects for LESS money than a Scherzer 5 year extension may allow the Tigers to be BETTER in 2014 and 2015-2019.
unlikely in 2014, possibly in 2015-19
Tanaka for 6+ years and a good prospect or prospects for LESS money than a Scherzer 5 year extension may allow the Tigers to be BETTER in 2014 and 2015-2019.
That’s what I want them to do too. Also you would have your whole rotation locked up for a while.
Y don’t the Rays go prospect shopping in Rangers system and ask for Alfaro, Gallo and Brinson? Alfaro, Gallo, Odor, Sadinas? Tavares no. Cubs have no need to trade their bats. Pit is a small market, so Polanco is out. But, by then end of this year KC will really regret trading Myers for Shields.
I think at the end of last season, the Royals were regretting making that deal.
Why? The had 86 wins.
First time in awhile.
Plus, it’s not like the Royals don’t have anyone in the Minor League System. Bubba Starling comes to mind.
If the Royals make the playoffs in 2014, which is a good possibility in my opinion at least for the wild card. I really don’t see how or why the Royals had any regret here.
Bubba Starling is definitely not the kind of prospect that makes it okay to trade Wil Myers. Starling still has some potential but he’s still a long ways from being a legitimate top prospect.
Rangers wouldn’t include Alfaro in a deal, but I imagine every other would be on the table.
No way the Rays move him this season unless they are just way out of contention. This team is built to win now. One more season then the Rays will move him for a monster package.
The whole reason why the Rays wanted to trade him this off-season though was because another year under control will bring back a much better package than if the Rays were to wait. Though with how high the asking price is, I don’t think any team budges into the Rays’ demands, especially now with executives learning of how the Shields-Myers deal worked out.
How many guys have been traded with half a year and brought back very nice packages? Price is basically in a league of his own. Heck look what Dickey brought back! He only one year left and he was more than ten years older. The Rays can compete this year. Without Price they will be good, but they will not get into the playoffs. There will b a difference in the package, but the addition of an extra good prospect does not outweigh the possibility of making the playoffs.
“How many guys have been traded with half a year and brought back very nice packages?”
quite a few. Grienke. Lee. Garza.
“Without Price they will be good, but they will not get into the playoffs.”
why? they got the playoffs this year. AL East hasn’t really improved much outside the Yankees and the Rays lost no one significant in free agency. Even the Yankees aren’t worlds better.
Losing that big arm in the front of the rotation would be a huge loss. Lose Price and replace with Odorizzi and you lose an easy two games. That will be a big difference in the division.
“Without Price they will be good, but they will not get into the playoffs.”
why? they got the playoffs this year. AL East hasn’t really improved much outside the Yankees and the Rays lost no one significant in free agency. Even the Yankees aren’t worlds better.
I agree. My point was that even with only one year, Price is way more valuable than those guys. The package will still blow those out of the water.
“How many guys have been traded with half a year and brought back very nice packages?”
quite a few. Grienke. Lee. Garza.
What are executives learning about the Shields-Myers deal this late in the game? There were no hidden clauses that just came about. The Royals got a front line ACE and didn’t give up 1 major league player. Prospects aren’t guaranteed. They felt they had a chance to win if they added a workhorse and they almost did. The Royals have had the worst luck drafting pitchers over the last decade than any other team in baseball. Look at their first round picks and tell me otherwise. I don’t blame them for making a bold move.
Next off-season he will be worth much less.
Not by much.
One less year of control would cost a very good prospect at the least as for as what the Rays would get in return
One good prospect is not worth the chance of making the playoffs this year.
The Rays have the pitching prospects to weather the blow of losing Price. Their trades of Garza in 2011 and Shields last year show that they aren’t afraid to make the moves necessary to keep them a winning franchise for the future as well.
The difference here is that they don’t have anyone to step into his shoes. With Shields they had the continued growth of Moore. Archer looks to be a good pitcher, but he is still not ready to pitch in the front of a rotation. One more year of development for Archer and Odorizzi, and then, maybe I can see them making the transition. Moore, Archer, Hellickson, Cobb, and Odorizzi is not going to do it. It’s a very nice young rotation, but there is not a lot of depth here. Colome will see some innings, but they are still one big arm short. Price is the front of the rotation anchor. This is their window. There is no need to move Price now. See where the team is halfway through the season, then re-evaluate. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t make the move if they are absolutely overwhelmed, but it needs to be something that you just can’t turn down. I mean like Miller, Martinez, Wong, and Kelly or Walker, Franklin, Paxton, and Marlette. If that were to happen, then I am all for it. The deal would need to be strong enough to help build for the future and include enough firepower to keep the team in the race. I don’t for one second think the Cardinals or mariners would offer that, and they should not, but only in that type of situation should the Rays really think about this.
im not sure why the Cardinals would deal 5 years of Miller for 2 years of Price straight up honestly. NO ONE would give 4 big league players; let alone prospects.
I agree. What do you mean by “four big league players”? If it’s prospects, then the Rangers just gave up four prospects for half a year of Garza with no draft compensation. Price is worlds better and will have two years of control with draft pick compensation. The point was not that the Cardinals would or should, it was that it would have to be something ridiculous for the Rays to bite. It doesn’t make sense for either club. Who is even in the position prospects wise or competitive wise that would be a good fit for the Rays? Those are the only two clubs off the top of my head that could offer what the Rays would want. Pirates maybe, but are they going to give up the prospects necessary? I don’t think so. D-backs won’t move Bradley, so they are probably out. Washington’s rotation is full. I just don’t see a good deal anywhere else. Let’s say the Cardinals offered Martinez, Gast, Kelly, and Ramsey. Does anyone believe this would actually be accepted?
I don’t see why the Rays would be in a hurry to trade the man. imo they’d be better off playing out this year and going for a championship and then trading him next season. Unless they’re blown away by an offer (a la the Shields deal)
Look at how low the apparent market for Scherzer has been this year post Cy Young, but with only one year left before FA… so low that they opted to trade Fister instead.
And they traded Fister for an incredibly low price.
I think right now, Price’s value is too high to be traded. Look what James Sheilds got, a rookie of the year and other prospects that will make an impact soon. Price would net the Rays 2 Xander Bogaerts or 2 2 Nick Castallanos, or a very high package that would completely alter a team’s farm system. This is why Amaro didn’t trade Lee at the deadline. I think he was right to demand Xander from the Red Sox, and more players on top of that. But the Sox aren’t willing to pay that cost, and own’t be until Lee is put on the block this year (if the Phillies fall apart)
All that said, I think he will be a Ray for at least 1/2 a year more, if not all of 2014. Otherwise, Tampa bay woulnd’t recieve the best package for him
This is not directed entirely at you Phillies1102 but when people bring up the Myers thing it bothers me. The Rays did not know they were getting a ROY. What if he had fallen apart ala Dominic Brown (the early years) or blown his knee out. Shields was a proven commodity (still miss the guy), the Rays took on promising star potential but with it came risk.
My thoughts exactly. Someone said the Royals got fleeced in that deal, when in reality, it was a pretty even deal. Rays took on prospects, who had potential but could easily bust (I am not sure on this, but I don’t think Myers played in the Bigs with the Royals did he?) and Royals got a proven starter.
Myers had not played a game in the bigs.
Thanks! That’s what I thought but was not for sure. Really only solidifies your point that it was a pretty fair deal on both ends.
If it was just Myers that would be one thing, but Oddorozi, Mike Montgomery and third baseman Patrick Leonard, are all quality prospects, that are worth well over Wade Davis. Myers would have been the top overall prospect had it not been for future superstars Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, and Shields was little more than a Doug Fister type. I’m sure Tampa will use this trade as a ranger, and rightfully so, becuase if they get a Doug Fister return then everyone will look to the Shields trade immediately.
I will take Shields over Fister any day. Shields can lead a staff where Fister can not. Odorizzi is at best a mid rotation SP, Montgomery was volitale when they acquired him and has only moved even closer to a bust. Patrick Leonard is filler for the minors.
Teams seem a bit gun shy about giving up top prospects for Price but look what Grienke and Dickey brought back if you feel the Myers deal was an overpay. Price has two years of control while being cheaper then any realistic other frontline starter option (Tanaka, Lee, etc).
I commend Friedman for holding tight waiting for desparation to sink in. I do believe some GM wille eventually give in to the Rays demands.
I don’t see Price getting traded this offseason. I just don’t see any potential suitors that would give up the necessary prospects to acquire him, especially with Tanaka, Jimenez, Garza etc. still available.
One team I’m always intrigued by is the Rockies. It’s hard to convince pitchers to sign there with the high altitude and park factors, so their best bet is to draft/trade for pitchers. It’d be interesting to see if Tulowitzki would become available for an ace that Colorado has missed for so long.
Problem is that Tulo is still owed something like $130 million. Tampa can’t afford that even if Colorado kicked in a bunch of money.
That would be unthinkable for the Rockies. Price is only around for two more years and starting pitching really isn’t their problem right now.
isnt tulo signed until like 2020 or something ridiculous
Cargo seems more the type of player the Rays would target (I know I know his home/away splits are a huge red flag) . Neither player will get moved to the Rays for contract reasons but oh well, fun to discuss!
I’m actually beginning to dislike Tanaka, irrationally, because he has almost singlehandedly held up the offseason.
Whenever the Rays decide to trade him.
Gonna be a scary year for Rays if they lose Price and don’t pick up another starter
Not really. Moore, Archer, and Cobb are all still improving, Hellickson could rebound, and Odorizzi looked pretty good his second time up, plus they have Colome and Romero at AAA who could take over if Odorizzi fails. Certainly wouldn’t be as good as if they had Price, but not a total disaster by any means.
“Not a total disaster” isn’t good enough in that division when they depend on their starters for everything, including reducing workload of the bullpen.
Cobb is very under-rated IMO. Moore is a box of chocolates and I want to see more time in the big leagues from Archer before relying on him. I fear he will regress this year.
Although David Price is good (obviously) he doesn’t necessarily make or break their rotation in that division. The people mentioned above could help with losing Price (although doesn’t completely make up for it) but to say losing David Price would be a total disaster is obsurd.
Price can net descent returns as James Paxton w/ Tyler Pike, Julio Morban, Nick Franklin, and John Hicks are included in the trade for the Mariners & Rays w/o involving Zunino & Walker.
How about we flip the script. The Mariners trade Felix Hernandez and 18 million to the Rays to help offset his salary the next two years and the Rays send you Jake Odorizzi, Hak-Ju Lee, Jeff Ames, Ryan Brett and Luke Maile. Are you guys game?
One of Zunino/Walker is a requirement. The Rays prefer quality over quantity. It seems they may just hang on to him to start 2014.
I think the only chance something happens is after Tanaka starts the game of SP musical chairs. If there is a desparate GM left without one, they may pay the Rays asking price.
If Zunino or Walker is one of the trade parts of David Price, hope Carlos Rodon of NC State or Jeff Hoffman of East Carolina will be available in the MLB Draft in the first round as both are highly touted pitchers in college just like AJ McCarron (Alabama) and Jamie Winston (Florida State) in football or a blue chip catcher that may be available in the draft too.
There just aren’t any fits for David Price. The Mariners won’t give up what the Rays want. The Diamondbacks have what the Rays may want, but that will leave the Dbacks without any more young arms left in the system.
They keep talking about the Diamondbacks being in on Tanaka. They’ve also been linked to Jeff Samardzija. I think David Price makes a lot of sense for them, and might strike some fear in the Dodgers. Make it so!
If they’re willing to give up Bradley, it’s a deal (and they’d be incredibly stupid … but I’m not sure what they’re up to any more).
I say during ST
This might be a bad idea but what if the Tigers trade Scherzer, Saurez, Schotts, Ray and enough money to make Scherzers contract to five million a year for Price. Tigers get an ace to replace Scherzer for 2 years and Rays get ace to let prospects develop and some good young prospects.
The asking price (no pun) has been far too high and I don’t think the Rays will find a trading partner. The smart move will be to keep him, make the qualifying offer and get the draft pick. No player they get for 2014 will have the impact of David, he will be performing for the contract of his life, and then he sails off into the sunset as maybe a World Series hero. The Rays best bet is to trade him for one more season of exemplary pitching and then get the draft pick.
What people are calling “reasonable” offers for Price – a three-player package headed by a top-50, not top-10, prospect – will be available next postseason. To trade Price before the 2014 season, when the team is a legitimate playoff contender, the Rays would have to net a Wil Myers+ return. As others have noted, teams are wary of making such offers. Of course, the Rays could probably get a monster package if they’re out of it near the trading deadline and dangle Price to contenders.
If the Tigers would have kept Fister, and traded Scherzer instead, a Tanaka Singing would seem more realistic. Now, the Tigers, mostly Dave Dombrowski, do nit eant to have a $160-175 million dollar payroll. Scherzer will most likely finish 2014 in Detroit, but sign elsewhere for 2015. I believe a rotation that consists of Verlander, Sanchez, Fister, Tanaka, and Porcello is much better for the next three years, the n one of Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fister, and Porcello, salaries being the main factor. Scherzer wants Felix Hernandez money, and up until last year he was a number 3. He went to the minors in 2011. I would keep him 2014, collect another teams first pick, plus a compensation pick from whoever he signs to.
You only get one pick and it’s the teams compensation pick and they still could do a trade Scherzer and sign Tanaka or Garza. If Illitch wants to go all in he could tell Dombrowski to trade Porcello to a team like the Jays and sign Tanaka which wouldn’t be bad. Your rotation then is Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Tanaka, and Smyly. That’s a good rotation.