SB Nation's Grant Brisbee examines the ups and downs of Joe Mauer's contract and wonders what Mauer would have signed for had he been a free agent this offseason. Mauer is owed $115MM over the remainder of his contract, and while Brisbee feels he'd fall a bit shy of that, he still predicts a healthy six-year, $101MM contract. Mauer would have been the second-best hitter in this year's free agent class, Brisbee notes, pointing out that among 2013-14 free agents, only Robinson Cano has a higher OPS+ than Mauer over the past two seasons. More Twins-related news and rumors…
- Mike Pelfrey's two-year, $11MM contract with the Twins includes $3.5MM in incentives based on innings thresholds, as broken down by Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
- There isn't any change in negotiations between the Twins and Matt Garza, according to 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson (Twitter links). As Wolfson reported earlier this week, Minnesota is willing to meet Garza's price but only on a short-term deal, while Garza is looking for a longer commitment.
- The Twins are not one of the six teams that have expressed interest in a minor league deal for Nyjer Morgan, according to Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). Morgan recently switched agents and is weighing a return to the Majors after a strong season in Japan.
- Major League sources tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that a reunion between the Twins and Johan Santana is a real possibility. Minnesota has continued to discuss its former ace internally, has stayed in contact with Santana's agents and has some interest in a reunion.
- The Twins face an interesting battle for the fifth spot in their rotation, wrote MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger in his most recent Twins Inbox. Samuel Deduno, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond are all out of minor league options, but the rotation figures to have room for just one of the three with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey all under control. That's to say nothing of top prospect Kyle Gibson, who struggled in 2013 but still projects to be in the rotation at some point. Bollinger feels that Deduno is the front-runner for the fifth spot but doesn't see a Worley or Diamond trade happening until at least midway through Spring Training, as each pitcher's value is at a low point.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post
Wow! The Twins staff still looks to be not very good. I think Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes are okay, but I’m not real thrilled with Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. I really think that any one of the three out of option starters could give you as much as those two-while costing less money and having a chance of being something more than Corriea or Pelfrey as pitchers.
Correia isn’t sexy but he’s a solid backend guy who will give them 180 innings and roughly 1.5 WAR and league avg era. And he only costs 5m. That’s not horrible.
Kevin Correia was the most stable pitcher for the Twins last season. He’s kinda underrated. Every start he made, the twins had a shot at winning. His rotation spot is secure. Pelfrey is capable of a bounce back year but based on his performance last season, his spot is by no means a lock.
Clearly, you didn’t watch many Twins games last year!! Correia was their best starter….and Pelfrey was only in his first year after TJ surgery. Look for a bounce back year from him. Diamond needs to return to his 2012 form or he won’t be in their rotation. If Deduno can get control of his pitches, then he will be the fifth starter.
Not sure Pelfrey really has anything to bounce back to other than mediocrity.
2008 and 2010 were both fine seasons. If the twins get anything close to that, he’ll be a flat out bargain.
Woot, 2014 is an even year! Hello, Cy Average.
I agree: he was never great, but Pelphrey’s ceiling is high enough to be useful and his contract is low enough to make him a fine gamble. It’s a long season with a lot of innings to go around and being within arm’s reach of average is valuable.
(Pelfrey as a lock for a rotation spot) == (a long 2014 season for the Twins)
I would have put Deduno on the 5th spot, due to the season he had and the excellent job he did for us at the WBC
It’s possible he would be locked into a rotation spot if not for September shoulder surgery. There’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% when the season opens and even then regaining command (what little Deduno had) takes time after surgery.
If Mauer got less than Choo I would quit watching baseball. He would have got 7/160, IMO. What do you think?
In this market maybe, but only if there were teams like the Red Sox and Yankees (maybe LA) that viewed him as a catcher for at least the next few years. As a 1B with very little power, I’d be hard-pressed to see him getting that sort of deal.
Depends on the position he’d play.
I’m in agreement. Mauer as a plus defender at 1B is more valuable than Choo as a poor defender in the outfield. I think 7/$160 is a little steep but the proposed 6/$101M is far too little. Somewhere in the middle. More than Choo, less than Ellsbury.
Gibson struggled in 2014? WAIT… This article is from THE FUTURE?!?!?!?
How do we know that Kyle Gibson struggled in 2014 already lol
Phillies will take Vanamil back.
wouldn’t that be something, Twins DFA him and phillies claim him
Aside from Nolasco, nobody should be a ‘lock’ for this rotation. Each one should have to earn their spot, otherwise they need to ride the pine in the bullpen.
I’d like to see Worley given every chance to earn that fifth spot. It’d be a real shame if the Ben Revere trade ended up being for a mediocre minor league pitcher who can’t throw strikes.
You still have Trevor May who is the best piece of the deal
Well, since the twins are kicking tires on Garza, the rotation would have Nolasco, Garza, Hughes, Correia and Deduno. Just put Pelfrey in the bullpen and keep Diamond and Worley in AAA to fix their stuff.
I hope that Vance Worley gets the 5th Spot
I hope that Vance Worley gets the 5th Spot
I think Kyle Gibson could use some more time at Triple A to start
Does anyone else think the Twins would have been better off trying to just get one really good pitcher like Garza/Jimenez than a bunch of average/below average guys…
No doubt about it. Garza > Hughes, Pelfrey and Nolasco. I would not give a long term deal to Jimenez though, he had a decent year after having a bunch of sub par years. I think he needs another good year to establish himself as a “good pitcher.”
Garza can only pitch once every five days. Depends on who their other 4 starters would be. If the other guys are terrible, then no it wouldn’t be better to just have Garza than adding Nolasco and Hughes. Of course, this all depends on how Nolasco and Hughes perform in the next few years
No. Adding only one pitcher wouldn’t do much to help the Twins, no matter who the pitcher is. They needed at least 3.
The issue is depth and talent. Before the Twins signed these guys, they were guaranteeing spots to the following guys: Albers, Deduno, Diamond, Worley. None of these guys deserve a guaranteed spot. A couple might only ever be AAA guys.
Average to slightly below average guys (as you call them), are a big upgrade over the four guys I’ve listed. That’s how bad the rotation was. They were the worst in the majors. At the moment, only one of those guys will make the rotation. And that’s how it should be. Best man wins.
Nolasco is a clear upgrade over all of them, based on innings and talent. Hughes is an upgrade over Diamond, Worley or Albers, maybe not Deduno. I think the ballpark change will help him and he has more talent than all but Deduno, maybe even Deduno. Pelfrey is the only one where you can say, the guys they have might be better. It depends on if Pelfrey’s 2nd half is the 2014 Pelfrey. If not, the others are better.
Signing one of Garza/Jimenez only instead of doing Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfrey isn’t just about the talent of those single guys, it’s what the rest of the rotation looks like as well.
Wouldnt mind seeing the Jays trade for the Canuck Diamond for some rotation depth. Would be tough because he’s out of options and would have to stay on the roster and probably doesnt have a spot in the bullpen and the Jays have too many similar pitchers with equal upside as Diamond but with options, but its always nice having Canadians playing for MLBs only Canadian team 🙂
Oh and a question, what would the Twins do if they have no room for one or more of Worley, Diamond and Deduno and cant work a trade? waivers?
Cant they start them out in AAA?? if not, then they would be put on waivers
From what I understand is they wont have room on the 25 man roster, after all positional players, RP and SP are accounted for. And since they are out of options I dont think they can send them down to AAA without putting them on waivers. But not sure, thats why I asked lol. I guess they could put them in the pen, and send other RPs with options down, but again not sure
Right now, they have one rotation spot. So one of them gets that. Deduno had offseason surgery, he may need to start on the DL…so that would take care of that for awhile and the other could be put in the BP. They could keep all three for awhile with that situation.
If Deduno is healthy…then one for rotation, one for BP, one on waivers. There are at least 2-3 guys with options in the BP, so a spot or two could be had that way.
They really could do it without losing anyone, just not sure they’d throw two of them in the BP. I could for sure see one of them going there.
Why are they kicking tires for Matt Garza when they are having a rotation battle for the 5th spot? Can’t we use Pelfrey as a bullpen guy? I think I can see him in the bullpen in 2014.
Pelfrey would probably still win the job for the 5th starter. Diamond and Worley would really have to BOUNCE BACK to beat him out. Swarzak did a good job in long relief last year, so he may be back in that position unless he becomes a 6th or 7th inning guy. Deduno is also a wild card for that 5th spot if they end up getting Garza. If they don’t, Deduno has a good chance of winning a starting job!
I would say Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, Deduno, Pelfrey now that I look at it.