With the trade that sent Andrew Cashner to the Padres and Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs now over two years distant, R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus takes a look at its background and how it has played out to date. While both players have proven that their talent plays at the big league level, each still comes with questions. Nevertheless, the trade appears to have been quite an equal swap at this point, he opines.
Here's more from the National League:
- The Mets hesitation with respect to shortstop Stephen Drew relates to the team's valuations of him and internal option Ruben Tejada, reports MLB.com's Anthony DiComo. "At the numbers he's looking for," a source told DiComo, "we don't think he's worth it compared to what we have." At this point, a trade of Ike Davis is a more likely outcome than the signing of Drew, says DiComo.
- Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said today that a platoon was possible at second base, a prospect that Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times questions. Both Alexander Guerrero and Dee Gordon — the two likely platoon options — are converting from shortstop, and each brings lots of uncertainty to the table. Guerrero, the club's most expensive offseason acquisition, has reportedly had some struggles moving to the other side of the bag, but putting his right-handed bat in a platoon role would significantly limit his plate appearances.
- In spite of a resoundingly successful 2013 campaign, Pirates GM Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle will both go into the season without a contractual assurance that they'll be around for another. As Rob Biertempfel of the PIttsburgh Tribune-Review reports, Owner Bob Nutting said today that extensions for the two are not a major priority, though he indicated that he'd be amenable to talks at the right time. "What they've done for the organization in good and bad times really is tremendous," said Nutting, "and I hope they're with the organization for a long time. My expectation is they're going to be critically important pieces of this organization as we go forward."
- Nutting also indicated that the Pirates would still consider giving up a draft pick to sign a free agent, Biertempfel further reports. "Certainly nothing is off the table," he said. "But at the same time, we need to recognize that a first-round draft pick is a meaningful source of talent for a team like the Pirates. We want to be smart and cautious." The Bucs have spoken with first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales, Biertempfel notes, though the extent of the team's interest remains unknown.
The Mets doth protest too much, methinks.
Drew for his past three seasons has compiled a 4.5 WAR – average value of 1.5 per year. Tejada comes in at 3.0 combined, average value of 1.0 per year. Half a point of WAR at a cost of $10M+? It’s understandable why they feel Drew’s an overpay if both players perform to their norm.
Not to mention that with Drew’s new desire for an opt out clause, he doesn’t do anything for a team with bleak playoff hopes for 2014.
Wasn’t really saying anything about Drew’s value. But kind of ridiculous to look at his 3 year average, when he missed almost a season and half due to a fractured ankle.
According to Fangraph, Drew’s value in dollars:
’11 18.8 mil
’12 7.8 mil (shattered ankle mid-season) projected to 14 mil if healthy
’11 lost season due to injury
’13 16.9 mil
I don’t think Drew is worth those big bucks, but laughable to try to compare Tejada to him. I was just trying to say that Mets and Drew seem to be posturing so much that a deal is inevitable.
Since one of the knocks on him is an inability to stay on the field, and there are rumors about some suspect medicals….it’s kind of ridiculous *not* to look at it.
Watch the video of his ankle twist completely around on the play, its horrific. It would take anyone a year plus to recover from. If you take out the lost time due to that one injury in ’11 and ’12, Drew’s averaged 602 plate appearances, the other 5 full seasons of his career. You call it “inability to stay on the field” I call it one fluke injury.
But, instead of taking any of that into account you simple want to just take last 3 years WAR total and divide by 3. Not one year (Tejada -0.9 vs Drew +3.1) or 4 years (Tejada +0.7 vs Drew +2.2), but 3 years, because its the only comparison that brings Tejada remotely close to Drew. Then project he’s only “a half point better” in ’14. Thats what I find ridiculous.
Use Fangraph’s value at your own risk. Those same metrics tally Tejada’s cumulative value over 3 years at $13.5M vs. Drew’s $43.5. So why, using your own metrics, would you pay someone with 3 times the value more than 10 times as much? And certainly, I wouldn’t have used just the last year (Tejada’s worst vs Drew’s best) as a conclusive measure. If you want to use four years as more conclusive than three, that’s your prerogative. I chose not to. But the point remains, that while Drew is undoubtedly better than Tejada – he isn’t that much better.
1) Check you facts. Last season wasn’t Drew’s best. He was far better in ’11.
2) How is the most recent data (last season) not more relevant? Its always best to look at most recent, and work your way back. I guess unless it doesn’t make your point. Tejada’s -0.9 says that the Mets would’ve been better served getting a random replacement player from Triple A, than to have him at SS. Drew was starting SS on the World Champions – No comparison.
Thanks for the tip. I did check my facts. In 2011, he hit .256 with a 1.9 WAR. So…that’s not better. Perhaps you meant 2010. In which case, I accept the point. The reason I didn’t take their most recent years only is that they both appear to be outliers. I find it far more reliable to take the most recent past years and average them out. I think you’re more likely to get a more rounded view of who the players are by doing that. I would do that in any player’s case. I’m not cherry-picking my methodology to support a conclusion on Tejada vs. Drew here. You’re free to do otherwise….and declare both BJ Upton and R.A. Dickey finished.
I don’t think you can really make a good comparison anyway. Tejada has never played a full season. He is also significantly younger. He is far more of an unknown than Drew. He could have a breakout 2014, or he could hit .200. Drew is much more of a sure thing, but he is also more likely to decline faster. Drew’s value to the Mets isn’t nearly what he’s asking. I think they’re right to sit out if he doesn’t come down.
1) Check you facts. Last season wasn’t Drew’s best. He was far better in ’11.
2) How is the most recent data (last season) not more relevant? Its always best to look at most recent, and work your way back. I guess unless it doesn’t make your point. Tejada’s -0.9 says that the Mets would’ve been better served getting a random replacement player from Triple A, than to have him at SS. Drew was starting SS on the World Champions – No comparison.
It’s much less ridiculous to compare their three year average when you consider that over that time, Drew has, despite the injuries you cited, played in more games than Tejada, 289 vs. 267.
Please just extend Hurdle and Huntington. Please. I never call you cheap, even after twenty years of watching you. Do it before someone else comes along and scoops them up.
I agree. Also, I don’t know the contract for Ray Searage but he has to stay. He has turned around so many pitchers. The pirates do have a great coaching staff, now let’s find a long term hitting coach!! But no one can really help them hit if there is no good hitters on the team..
How we’ve gotten this far without any of those three guys being locked up is baffling to me.
I miss Ben-Nicholson Smith, Mike Axisa and Cork Gaines. And I wished Dierkes posted more.
I think Jeff Todd is the best writer on this site. Also the one writer who interacts most with readers.
I like him too. I just miss some of the older guys
I like Polishuk too. Him and Todd’s post are like essays they’re like three times longer then everybody else’s
The Pirates are looking, strictly looking at other teams sign players.
I’d take the Padres end of the trade now, though initially it looked the other way around with Rizzo hitting bombs with the Cubs, and couldn’t seem to make contact with the Padres. Cash is a possible #1, while Rizzo looks like an expensive Alonso.
not a #1, but he’s solid. looks to be a reliable ML player, which is more than you can say about rizzo at this point. he’s gotta figure out how to hit lefties before the cubs can call it a win.
I’m bewildered by the Buccos interest in Kendrys Morales. I know they want a LH-hitting 1B type, but why him? His defense isn’t very good anymore, but the key is having to sacrifice that draft pick. It’s a much more significant tool for small budget teams like PIT. It doesn’t seem to be worth the risk, even in the short term.
Everyday the Mets are without Stephen Drew is like a day with sunshine.
I have listened and read over the last three months about the Mets committing significant dollars and signing a free agent who is far from a franchise player and someone who will put them over the top. Every fan boy who has salivated over the prospect is just excited over the next new thing – it’s grass is always greener syndrome.
Drew has been a player who historically has had injury problems – this is a career .264 hitter here! His highest stolen base total for a season is 10, his highest home run total is 21 and that was in 2008 (five years ago). What exactly is worth 14 million a year for three years here? Citifield and Fenway Park are dramatically different ballparks and I haven’t read a word that takes those differences into account as they impact offensive stats.
If they don’t sign him, i’ll be glad if only it won’t be another situation where the Mets overpay for mediocrity.