Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Anthony Rizzo

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

By | at

The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Yankees Place Domingo German On 60-Day Injured List

By | at

The Yankees have placed righty Domingo German on the 60-day injured list, the team announced.  The placement creates a 40-man roster spot for Anthony Rizzo, whose new deal with the club is now official.

New York manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Brendan Kuty of NJ.com) earlier this week that German was only just beginning his throwing program, after shoulder problems hampered him in January.  If German is essentially starting from scratch, the 60-day IL placement will allow him time to get fully ramped up through extended Spring Training, and he’ll be available for the Yankees by May.

German’s absence removes another arm from a Yankees’ rotation mix that arguably could’ve used some more reinforcement even if German had been healthy.  Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Jameson Taillon, and Nestor Cortes give the Yankees a starting five, even if plenty of health questions surround Severino and Taillon (though Boone also said that Taillon’s October ankle surgery won’t keep him out of the Opening Day roster).  Michael King, Luis Gil, Deivi Garcia, or Clarke Schmidt form the first line of starter depth at Triple-A or in the bullpen, though none of that group has a proven MLB track record.

The same could also be said of German, as home run issues have been a big factor in his 4.54 ERA over 341 1/3 career innings in the majors.  German also missed the 2020 season while suspended under the league’s domestic violence policy, and shoulder inflammation limited him to 98 1/3 frames in 2021.  More shoulder problems can’t be seen as good news for German now, though there yet any indication that he could be facing a structural issue.

Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo

By | at

The Yankees have settled on a first baseman, reportedly agreeing to terms with Anthony Rizzo on a two-year, $32MM guarantee. The deal pays the Sports One Athlete Management client $16MM salaries annually and gives him the opportunity to opt out after the 2022 campaign. The contract is pending a physical.

Rizzo will be returning to the Bronx, where he finished the 2021 season. New York acquired him from the Cubs in advance of the trade deadline, and he hit .249/.340/.428 in 200 plate appearances in pinstripes down the stretch. That was more or less in line with the .248/.346/.446 mark he’d put up in 376 trips to the plate with Chicago over the season’s first couple months.

It was the second straight season of reasonable but unexciting production for Rizzo. He’d posted a .222/.342/.414 line during the shortened 2020 campaign. Going back two seasons, he owns a .240/.343/.432 mark over 819 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, that production checks in nine percentage points above the league average hitter’s. It’s actually a bit below the standard (.254/.335/.455, 113 wRC+) set by first basemen around the league.

It’s been a rather sharp downturn for Rizzo as he’s entered his 30’s. He broke out with the Cubs in 2014, his age-24 campaign. Over the next six seasons, he never posted a wRC+ below 126. Overall, Rizzo hit .284/.388/.513 between 2014-19, with his 141 wRC+ in that stretch tying for twelfth among 375 qualified hitters.

Rizzo was a lineup anchor for the Cubs as they emerged from their rebuild, and he was also highly-regarded for his leadership and presence in the clubhouse. That combination made him perhaps the face of the Cubs’ most successful run in over a century. He appeared in three consecutive All-Star games from 2014-16, finishing in the top ten in NL MVP voting each season. Rizzo played a key role on Chicago’s curse-breaking World Series winner in 2016, and he remained highly productive for three years beyond that even as the team never recaptured that level of postseason success.

The Yankees would be thrilled with their investment if he were to recapture anything near that form next season. Yet there’s clearly some trepidation around the league regarding Rizzo’s back-to-back relative down years. Just 12 months ago, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported that the Cubs had put a five-year, $70MM extension offer on the table. Rizzo declined Chicago’s overture, preferring to bet on himself after his middle-of-the-road 2020 season. After continuing to produce at a similar level over a full schedule in 2021, though, he essentially finds himself accepting a pillow contract and betting on a bounceback once again.

To be sure, Rizzo still does a lot of things well. He continues to boast an enviable combination of contact and raw power. Rizzo’s 81.5% contact rate and 15.1% strikeout percentage last season were both well better than average; so too were his 90.1 MPH average exit velocity and 41.1% hard contact rate. That neither Rizzo’s bat-to-ball skills nor his bat speed have evaporated lend hope he may again find some of his old form.

It’s also possible that forthcoming rules changes could aid Rizzo as he ages (albeit not during the upcoming season). The left-handed hitter has become more pull-oriented over the past two seasons than he’d been throughout his career. Not coincidentally, he has faced a higher rate of defensive shifts that have contributed to lackluster results on balls in play. Rizzo’s .246 batting average on balls in play since the start of 2020 ranks 108th out of 114 qualified hitters. That may continue to be an issue this year, but it’s expected MLB will implement restrictions on defensive shifting beginning with the 2023 campaign.

However one feels about Rizzo’s long-term projection at the plate, there’s not as much question about the value he brings on the other side of the ball. He’s a four-time Gold Glove Award winner who was unanimously well-regarded by public defensive metrics up through 2020. Defensive Runs Saved felt he dropped off in that regard last year, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average remained bullish on his work. Rizzo seems a fairly definitive upgrade with the glove over incumbent first baseman Luke Voit, who has always been a bat-first player — even relative to the lower defensive standards of the position.

With Rizzo back in the fold, it stands to reason Voit’s name will come up in trade talks over the coming weeks. They could coexist as a first base/designated hitter pairing on many rosters, but the Yankees don’t have many DH at-bats to spare. They’ve leaned heavily on the position to keep Giancarlo Stanton from having to shoulder too significant a workload in the outfield. Even if Stanton were capable of assuming more defensive responsibilities than he has in the recent past, New York already has a projected starting outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge.

More broadly, it has become apparent in recent months the Yankees weren’t fully committed to Voit, the 2020 MLB home run leader. They traded for Rizzo at the deadline, then reportedly came close to pulling the trigger on a subsequent deal that would’ve shipped Voit out over the summer. That never came to fruition, but the Yankees were again tied to bigger names at first base this offseason. New York was in contact with the A’s about Matt Olson before Oakland traded him to the Braves. More recently, they were considered among the top handful of suitors for Olson’s predecessor in Atlanta.

With Rizzo returning to the Bronx, it no longer seems the Yankees will be in that Freddie Freeman mix. The Braves have already moved on to Olson, leaving Freeman’s future home one of the most fascinating remaining storylines of the offseason. Recent reports have generally cast the Dodgers as the leading contender for the 2020 NL MVP, with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Padres reported to be on the outskirts of his market.

Wherever he ends up, Freeman is sure to command a deal much loftier than the one the Yankees are guaranteeing Rizzo. New York has been wary of making a long-term commitment to free agents this winter, with the desire to work out an extension with Judge seemingly looming over the offseason calculus. Yet the recent trade for Josh Donaldson and today’s agreement with Rizzo solidify that the Yankees will exceed the competitive balance tax threshold in 2022 after dipping below the marker last season.

After today’s agreement, New York has around $244MM in real payroll and $258MM in CBT obligations on the books this year, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (Luxury tax calculations are determined by summing contracts’ average annual values and player benefits as opposed to looking strictly at actual year-over-year salaries). They’ll pay a 20% fee on every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, as well as a 32% tax on every dollar between $250MM and $270MM. They’d face even higher penalties for exceeding $270MM and $290MM, and it’s not clear how far owner Hal Steinbrenner and the front office are willing to push things this season.

New York will see the salaries of both Aroldis Chapman ($16MM) and Zack Britton ($14MM) come off the books after this year. Judge and Gallo, both of whom have lofty projected arbitration tallies in 2022, will be hitting free agency. There should be decent long-term maneuverability for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff. How much more they’ll do in the short term remains to be seen, but a Voit trade at least looks like a very plausible next step as they try to round out the 2022 roster.

Jordan Brown first reported the Yankees and Rizzo were in agreement on a two-year, $32MM guarantee with an opt-out after 2022. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported he’ll be paid flat salaries of $16MM in each year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

By | at

The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains.  As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal.  The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s.  Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago.  Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

By | at

Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

—

Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Anthony Rizzo’s Contract

By | at

Anthony Rizzo is one of the higher-profile remaining unsigned free agents. The 32-year-old is a three-time All-Star and a four-time Gold Glove winner. Rizzo also claimed a Silver Slugger award during a 2016 season where he was a key member of the Cubs’ World Series winning squad, and he appeared on MVP balloting every year during his 2014-19 peak.

Yet Rizzo’s numbers have slipped from that middle-off-the-order form over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .240/.343/.432 hitter. That offensive output is nine percentage points above the overall league average, by measure of wRC+, but it’s a bit below the leaguewide .254/.335/.455 line compiled by first basemen.

Coupled with his age (32), that recent dip in production at the plate makes Rizzo a particularly challenging free agent to value. Teams could view his downturn as a sign that his days as an impact bat are now behind him. Yet he still brings an enviable combination of bat-to-ball skills, impressive exit velocities and well-regarded defense. That’s before considering the intangible value teams might attribute to Rizzo, who was generally viewed as a key clubhouse leader on the Cubs’ playoff rosters.

Rizzo’s two most recent teams — the Cubs and Yankees — have each been mentioned as possible post-lockout suitors for a reunion. The Braves have considered him as a possible alternative if Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere. There haven’t been any other teams with substantive ties to the lefty hitter this offseason, but clubs like the Brewers, Guardians and Marlins could be speculative fits for a first base addition.

The free agent and trade markets for first basemen didn’t move much before the lockout. In addition to the unsigned Freeman and Rizzo, top trade possibilities like Matt Olson and Luke Voit could find themselves on the move. That supply of potentially available star first basemen complicates the situation further, particularly given the rapid transactions frenzy that’s expected to take place once the lockout wraps up.

There haven’t been any firm reports about what kind of deal Rizzo might be targeting this winter. He rejected a five-year, $70MM extension offer from the Cubs during Spring Training. Yet topping that number now — even with the prospect of all 30 teams pursuing him — seems unlikely given his fine but unspectacular 2021 performance. At the start of the winter, MLBTR projected Rizzo to receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee.

What does the MLBTR readership think? For how much will Rizzo sign after the transactions freeze?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Cubs Have Reportedly Considered Pursuit Of Anthony Rizzo In Free Agency

By | at

The Cubs have had internal discussions about making a run at Anthony Rizzo in free agency, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Chicago is obviously barred from having contact with Rizzo or his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management during the lockout, but Levine suggests they could put forth a contract offer whenever the transactions freeze is lifted.

The Cubs’ previous efforts at locking Rizzo up for the long term obviously didn’t result in an agreement. During last year’s Spring Training, Chicago made a reported five-year, $70MM offer that the star first baseman turned down. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer expressed optimism at the time the parties would work something out during the regular season, but a mutually agreeable price point never presented itself.

The North Siders reportedly made a renewed effort at extension talks with both Rizzo and Javier Báez in July, but neither signed and both impending free agents were ultimately shipped off in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Rizzo landed in the Bronx, with the Yankees sending prospects Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vizcaino to the Cubs in return. The three-time All-Star spent the final few months of the year with the Yankees before hitting the open market for the first time in his career.

Given that extension discussions between the Cubs and Rizzo’s reps didn’t get across the finish line, a return to Chicago may seem far-fetched. Yet it’s possible Rizzo doesn’t find the kind of contract he apparently sought, at least during last March’s round of talks. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected he’d receive a three-year, $45MM guarantee, $25MM and two years south of the extension offer he reportedly declined during Spring Training.

That dip in likely earning power reflects both Rizzo’s age (32) and downturn in production over the past two years. After posting a .222/.342/.414 mark during the shortened 2020 season, the lefty hitter put up a .248/.344/.440 line with 22 home runs over 576 plate appearances in 2021. That’s solid production — 12 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. Yet it falls short of the elite offense he brought during his 2014-19 peak, when he combined for a .284/.388/.513 showing that was 41 points above the league average output (141 wRC+).

Rizzo’s batted ball metrics offer mixed signals on his chances of rediscovering his middle-of-the-order form. On the plus side, last season’s 90.1 MPH average exit velocity matched his personal high, while his 41.1% hard contact rate was a career best. His bat speed still seems intact, but Rizzo has gotten increasingly pull-oriented of late. In each of the past two seasons, he’s hit more than 47% of his batted balls to the right side of the diamond — the two highest single-season marks of his career. Defenses have responded by shifting against him more than ever. Paired with an uptick in pop-ups, that’s contributed to a meager .246 batting average on balls in plays since the start of 2020; during his aforementioned six-year peak, Rizzo sported a much better .295 BABIP.

While the Florida native may no longer be the star he was at his peak, that’s not to say there’s no appeal for possible suitors. In addition to his still-strong exit velocities, Rizzo owns excellent bat-to-ball skills. The former Silver Slugger punched out in just 15.1% of his plate appearances last season. That’s right in line with his career mark and more than seven points lower than last year’s league average. Rizzo also consistently draws a fair amount of walks and while he’s limited to first base, he still rates highly as a defender there. The Cubs are also no doubt familiar with his generally well-regarded clubhouse presence, and he was among the faces of the most successful run of play in more than a century of franchise history.

After trading away many of the most recognizable stars of that run, the Cubs were expected by most to be in for a quiet offseason. Hoyer consistently denied they were embarking on a full rebuild, though, and they’ve already signed Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds. The roster still looks short of contention, but reuniting with Rizzo would be a welcome development for much of the fanbase and upgrade an overall lineup that looks lacking. While they’ve already been more active than many anticipated, the Cubs should have financial flexibility to explore further additions. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2022 player payroll in the $114MM range. It seems unlikely they’ll jump to the $200+MM heights of the franchise’s record expenditures, but there’s plenty of room even before last season’s estimated $147MM season-opening level.

The Cubs would surely like to get another look at Frank Schwindel to see if his excellent showing as a 29-year-old rookie (.326/.371/.591 in 259 plate appearances) is the start of a late-career breakout. It’s widely expected the next collective bargaining agreement will include a universal designated hitter, though, likely leaving at-bats for both Schwindel and a possible outside addition to the first base/DH mix.

None of that is to say that the Cubs signing Rizzo is inevitable, or even especially likely. Front offices discuss possible moves that don’t ultimately come to fruition on a regular basis. And while reported interest in Rizzo has been fairly quiet this offseason, a couple more potential suitors have emerged.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed a desire to keep the 32-year-old in the fold back in November. With Freddie Freeman still unsigned, the Braves have looked into the possibility of pivoting to Rizzo. Freeman signing and a Matt Olson trade may be the catalysts necessary kickstart the respective free agent and trade markets for first basemen, which have yet to get going in earnest. Whenever that happens, perhaps the Cubs will embark on another effort to have Rizzo on the North Side for 2022 and beyond.

Braves Considered Anthony Rizzo Last Month

By | at

The Braves “explored” the possibility of signing free agent first baseman Anthony Rizzo in November, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  This could have potentially just been standard offseason procedure on the Braves’ part, since as Rosenthal notes, the club will naturally have backup plans in mind should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere.

Along those same lines, Atlanta has also been linked to the Matt Olson trade market, as Olson (projected to earn $12MM in his second trip through the arbitration process) stands out as a prime trade chip for an Athletics team that is looking to cut costs.  It is probably safe to assume that the Braves have looked at other first base options besides just Rizzo and Olson as they prepare for a post-Freeman world, though Rosenthal observes that “most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves.”

Still, at least one rival executive is surprised that Freeman is still available, describing it as a “slap in the face” to Freeman that the Braves haven’t already worked out a new contract with the longtime face of the franchise.  The most recent reports suggested that the Braves were hesitant about giving Freeman a sixth guaranteed year, and Freeman wanted something closer to a $200MM deal — or at least, perhaps closer to $200MM than the $135MM (over five years) deal that Atlanta offered at some point during negotiations between the two sides.

Rizzo presents an interesting first base alternative, as Rizzo is available for much less than Freeman’s asking price, and can be signed for just money, whereas Atlanta would surely have to send Oakland quite the package of young talent to work out a trade.  MLBTR projected Rizzo for a three-year, $45MM pact, while ranking the 32-year-old in 21st place on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

Of course, the obvious reason for that lower price tag is that while Freeman and Olson are still producing at All-Star levels, Rizzo’s bat has been more modestly productive (109 wRC+) since the start of the 2020 season.  Over his last 819 plate appearances, Rizzo has hit .240/.343/.432 with 33 home runs for the Cubs and Yankees.  Rizzo’s hard-contact numbers have also been in serious decline, while his 9% walk rate from 2021 was his lowest over a full season.  His first base glovework also took a big dip in the eyes of the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, even if the Outs Above Average metric gave him a +6 (his best OAA score since 2017).

The universal DH would help quell any concerns about Rizzo’s defense, and his left-handed bat would help replace Freeman to some extent within a heavily right-handed Braves lineup.  Rizzo is also still one of the better contact hitters in the league, which would help an Atlanta reduce a team strikeout rate that ranked 22nd out of 30 clubs in 2021.

Yankees’ Cashman On Carlos Correa, Anthony Rizzo

By | at

The GM Meetings are taking place in Carlsbad, California, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to reporters yesterday.  Cashman said he has “some latitude” on the team’s budget, after talking to owner Hal Steinbrenner.  The club was able to stay below the base luxury tax threshold of $210MM this year, effectively resetting as a first-time payor for future penalties – if something resembling the current system remains in place in the next collective bargaining agreement.

Cashman acknowledged to reporters that he’s already had talks with the agents for two free agent shortstops.  Those players are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, according to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden.  ESPN’s Buster Olney is hearing that the Yankees’ pursuit of a shortstop will remain focused on elite players of this nature.  Chandler Rome from the Houston Chronicle has more from Cashman on the Yankees’ interest in Correa.  Cashman explained, “(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously. Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing fallout) has not affected his play.”

There’s been a sentiment that perhaps Yankees fans would not tolerate or accept Correa.  That doesn’t seem to be Cashman’s primary concern, as the fans’ reaction “is not going to enter my calculus right now.”

Correa, who seems unlikely to sign before a potential December lockout, is reported to have received a five-year, $160MM offer from the Astros that seems more for show than anything.  As the top player on the free agent market, Correa is in line for $300MM or more.

Cashman has also spoken to the agent for first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who appeared in 50 games for the Yankees after a July trade.  The GM noted, “He obviously was really good for us, we feel, both on the offensive side and on the defensive side and on the leadership side, so he brings a lot of good things to the table.  I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that.”  Rizzo, 32, put up a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees.  In projecting a three-year, $45MM contract, MLBTR took into account intangibles like Rizzo’s reputation around the game.

The Yankees still have an incumbent first baseman in Luke Voit, who was limited to 68 games on the season due to injuries.  MLBTR projects Voit to earn $5.4MM next year, and it’s possible the Yankees move on from him.  Voit’s troublesome left knee is “resolved,” according to Cashman.

Perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Yankees at first base is a trade for Matt Olson of the Athletics.  Olson, 28 in March, posted a 146 wRC+ with 39 home runs this year and is projected to earn $12MM through arbitration.  According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, the Yankees have internally discussed trading for Olson.

The Yankees would also like to add some help in center field, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  Aaron Hicks, who played in only 32 games this year, is still owed $41MM through 2025.  Hicks, whose season ended in May due to wrist surgery, hopes to play winter ball, noted Lindsey Adler of The Athletic back in October.  The Yankees filled the void this year with 38-year-old Brett Gardner, who recently declined his $2.3MM player option in favor of a $1.15MM buyout.  The free agent market for center fielders also includes Starling Marte, Juan Lagares, Chris Taylor, Kevin Pillar, and eventually Odubel Herrera.  The trade market could include Kevin Kiermaier, Ketel Marte, and Byron Buxton.

Padres Looked Into Anthony Rizzo Trade At Deadline

By | at

The Padres’ trade deadline explorations included some talks with the Cubs about first baseman Anthony Rizzo, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes as part of a reader mailbag.  It isn’t known how far negotiations might have developed between the two sides, and the Cubs eventually ended up moving Rizzo to the Yankees in another deal.

With Rizzo now set to enter the free agent market, it stands to reason that the Padres might still have interest in the veteran, especially since the power is a continued need for the team.  While Rizzo’s slugging percentage over the last two seasons is a modest .432 (a significant dropoff from his .513 SLG with the Cubs from 2014-19), the first baseman did hit 22 home runs last year.  Rizzo’s power numbers were also markedly better than those of Eric Hosmer, the Padres’ incumbent first baseman.

It’s probably safe to assume that the Padres’ inability to move Hosmer at the deadline contributed to the lack of movement on a potential Rizzo trade.  San Diego was reportedly looking into ways to move Hosmer earlier this year, and Lin figures the team will again try to unload Hosmer and/or Wil Myers to alleviate their payroll and luxury tax burdens.  Hosmer is still owed $59MM from 2022-25, with a luxury tax number of $18MM based on the annual average value of Hosmer’s original eight-year, $144MM contract.

Even if National League teams have the DH as an extra lineup spot to work with in 2022, Hosmer stands as the largest obstacle to Rizzo or any other first base addition, barring a trade.  Since Hosmer has provided barely more than replacement-level production (0.5 total fWAR) over the last four seasons, Rizzo would provide an upgrade, even if Rizzo’s own production has taken a step back over the last two seasons.

Rizzo hit .240/.343/.432 with 33 homers in 819 PA since the start of the 2020 season, good for an above-average but unspectacular 109 wRC+.  His hard-hit ball numbers have also been on the decline over the last two seasons, and his nine percent walk rate in 2021 was his lowest since 2012.  On the plus side, Rizzo has continued to be one of the game’s tougher hitters to strike out, which would naturally appeal to a Padres team that prizes contact — San Diego has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball over the last two years.

There’s certainly still enough in Rizzo’s recent track record to merit a multi-year contract in free agency, and the 32-year-old is likely to land a healthy eight-figure salary.  While Rizzo wouldn’t necessarily represent huge savings in terms of pure dollars over Hosmer’s deal, the luxury tax savings may make it particularly worthwhile for the Padres.  Rizzo also isn’t attached to any draft pick compensation, since his midseason trade makes him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

If Rizzo did happen to wind up back in San Diego, it would represent something of a full circle move after he began his MLB career with the Padres back in 2011.  Initially a Red Sox draft pick, Rizzo was dealt to the Padres as part of the Adrian Gonzalez blockbuster in December 2010, and played only one season in San Diego before the Friars shipped him to the Cubs in January 2012.  From there, Rizzo ended up becoming a Wrigleyville icon, hitting .272/.372/.489 over parts of 10 seasons in Chicago and playing a major role in the team’s 2016 World Series title.

With power bats standing out as such a need for the Padres, Rizzo might not be the only former trade target who could again emerge on the team’s radar.  San Diego also had interest in acquiring Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo before the two sluggers were respectively dealt to the Rays and Yankees, and Lin believes the Friars might look into either signing Cruz as a free agent (probably again depending on the status of the universal DH) or perhaps working out a Gallo trade with New York.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top