MARCH 25th: Talks between Segura and the Brewers have been suspended, reports Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. With the sides facing a substantial gap between their respective valuations at this point, says Cotillo, there are no current plans to re-open discussions.
MARCH 20th: Haudricourt tweets that Segura's agent and the Brewers are "stealthily" having talks about Segura's extension. Segura himself claims he is not aware of any talks taking place. Segura is represented by Joseph Klein of Bouza Klein & Kaminsky. In a piece for the Journal Sentinel, Haudricourt quotes Segura: "I just want to play my game. I let my agent do his job. He hasn't told me anything."
MARCH 17th: Haudricourt follows up after the weekend, noting that while talks have yet to begin, it sounds like the Brewers will attempt to sign Segura to a long-term deal (Twitter link).
MARCH 14th: Brewers GM Doug Melvin and principal owner Mark Attanasio will meet this weekend to discuss the possibility of engaging young shortstop Jean Segura in extension negotiations, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far, no discussions with Segura and agent Joe Kleine have taken place.
The 24-year-old Segura has looked like a potential extension candidate ever since posting a big season in his first full year with Milwaukee. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth opined back in September, Segura might figure to land a five-year deal (with an option) for a guarantee in the low-$20MM range.
Of course, since that time, fellow 1+ service-year shortstop Andrelton Simmons inked a seven-year, $58MM deal. Though Segura lacks Simmons' unbelievable defensive prowess (and resulting high floor), that deal will surely stand in the forefront in negotiations. A poor second half dampened what had been an incredible breakout year for Segura, but he still ended up with an impressive .294/.329/.423 line in 623 plate appearances, posting 12 home runs and 44 stolen bases to go with solid defensive ratings.
It was reported back in February that the Brewers had made Segura an offer during an earlier run at extension talks, which obviously was turned down. No doubt the club will need to open the wallet further than it had originally hoped even to get a conversation started.
6 years 28 million?
1 1 million
2 3 million
3 4 million
4 6 million
5 6.5 million
6 7.5 million
I think that’s too small. Isn’t that last year a free agent season?
If his deal starts this year it is.
I would wait until midseason at least, because I would want to be sure that his second half last year (he had a 57 wRC+!!!) was just a fluke and not a sign of things to come. Of course, if they think it was a fluke, now could be a good time to get him cheaper than later if he starts hitting again. But unless they can get him for 5/20 or something cheap like that, I would wait.
You’re definitely right that it may have been a fluke. Even if they wait a little bit to see how he does, they’re primarily defining values for pre-arb and arbitration. The overall cost shouldn’t go up too much.
4 mil a year? Wow and Drew is asking how much?
Keep in mind Segura hasn’t even hit arbitration yet.
4/20…when he has two more years at league minimum, and then his first two years of arb.
4/20 is pointless though, because there is no reason to give him more than league minimum unless you are going to receive some free agent years.
But 4/20 would be a massive overpay, considering he is set to make like 8-12 million over the next 4 years as it sits (unless he breaks out huge next year and reaches super 2 as well – neither are particularly likely).
If they are going to explore an extension, it probably needs to be 7 years, at around 40 million or so. Giving him 2 ish million in pre-arb, 16ish million for arb, and 12ish a year for two free agent years (with an option probably).
But even this, I would wait a year to explore. Because you can still get him for close to this price, and waiting a year you know better what kind of a player you are locking up. The Brewers don’t know enough about him yet.
They need to make sure not to extend Segura if his performance slips back to utility worthy. He never really displayed his first half level ability in the minors, though he did make solid contact. I watched him play an entire minor league season and he never had power
Any deal carries little to no risk for the Brewers. Even at 6mil a year he is still likely worth it. He is a lock to steal 30bases(at least) and even if he regresses to a .270/.310 that still isn’t too bad for him when he can play some pretty good defense with speed.
There is risk both ways, but a ton of upside if they get this done now.
I agree, but I don’t believe there is a ton of upside. I think the first half was an outlier. He’s always hit for average with speed. Someone comped him to Alicedes Escobar… but I think he’s likely a better offensive player
I think we’re likely going to see the second half Segura plus speed. .260-.270/13HR/30SB…that certainly is valuable…but he’s likely not the .330 23HR pace bat we saw in the first half
Hold the phones on an extension. He was awful in the second half last year.
Not “Awful”, but he admittedly regressed. Maybe his first season in MLB got a little overwhelming and wore him out. I agree on holding out on the extension, but he’s very unlikely to be “awful”.
He is a worst case Alcedis Escobar and at best one of the top young SS cheap. They should lock him up.
Worth noting also that if he keeps hitting long balls and stealing bases, he’ll be expensive in arbitration (though he won’t qualify as a Super Two).
He is way better than Escobar…I Dont think his floor is that low.
Should wait one more year in my opinion.
Lock him up. If I were the brewers and assessed the deficiency in quality SS, I would lock him up for however long he agree. This guy is the real deal, the next Hanley Ramirez type. Get him signed.
Agreed really no reason to wait. He will hit for average and steal a ton of bases, anything else is a bonus.
I do believe the heavy workload he had prior to last season wore on him. He is better than he showed in the 2nd half…he looked tired down the stretch and I can’t blame him.
It’s a bit early, so it’s gamble, but it’s one they should certainly explore. They might strike gold and like the D-Backs did with Goldschmidt. If he has another year like he did last season, he’s gonna get real expensive real quick.
Didn’t do winter ball and appears to be rusty this spring (apparently) and from June 1 through the rest of the year only hit .261/292/.354 in 400 pa with a negative win probability.
I’d wait to see more. Segura is a good, young, talented shortstop, but if you intend to save money with him by locking him up, you need to see more from him first
Really? If the Brewers don’t pay this kid what he’s worth, I hope he leaves the team. This kid has immense talent and will be productive on both sides of the ball for many seasons. He’s not the only player to be “rusty” this spring and I believe he’ll heat up. I am not a fan of sabermetrics, the shredder, or Brian Kenny.
Well he needs to show more than one month worth of production before he is ‘worth it’.
And considering he is 5 years away from free agency, there is no rush.
A .284 avg. and a .340 OBP isnt that bad. Given he hasn’t hit for a ton of power that really isn’t where his worth is. If he was hitting .200 and can’t hit the broad side of a barn like Scooter Gennett it is a totally different story.
If they can get him on a 6mil Avg. It is a no brainer. If they wait and he does good they won’t save anything. Now is their chance to get a good deal and worst case scenario a fair deal.
It isn’t a no-brainer.
He was a very weak hitter for the entire second half of the year, and his batted ball rates were very poor too, signifying that he may not be as good as his overall slash line last season.
If he regresses this season, they may not want him for 6 mil a year.
You do these arb buyouts if you can get free agent years back (as a team). And that’s only on players you are confident are going to be worth the risk.
These deals are risky for teams. And segura has some regression scheduled for himself unless he makes some changes. I’d wait to see those changes before giving him anything.
Wow, your last paragraph is quite presumptuous. The kid is 24 years old entering his prime baseball years. Again, sabermetrics are the worst. I wonder how many times they’ve actually been accurate. The shredder rated Joe Mauer the 5th best first baseman, ahead of Adrian Gonzalez who has a golden glove, and he hasn’t even played an entire year there. How ridiculous is that. No credibility at all. We all know he can hit but his defense has yet to be seen for an extended amount of time. Just ridiculous
Sounds like you have no clue what sabrmetrics is, and just hate it to hate it. Because I haven’t provided you any sabrmetrics to hate on in any of these posts to begin with. So I’m assuming you just hate them to hate them, why would you even bring it up?
Segura has plenty to prove before he should be given anything.
Nobody is saying he won’t be good, but if I was his Gm, I would want to see some better results before giving him guaranteed money (unless there was an incredible bargain available).
He isn’t Simmons where you can live with whatever offense he gives you because he is so elite defensively. He isn’t longoria where you are getting such a bargain and cost certainty, that even if he fails, it’s not difficult to justify the money.
Segura had one great month, and then was a worse than league average shortstop the rest of the season. He is young, has upside, but let him play to that potential before locking him up long term. I would any way.
I hate it when people think all there is to the game is sabermetrics and at the same time I can’t stand it when people think sabermetrics are worthless and don’t tell anything. I’ve been seeing that a lot the past few days. I think people just don’t understand it and don’t take the time to learn what it means.
On topic, I like Jean Segura I think he’s a great young player. Last year was his first break out year though, so I don’t see why it would hurt to wait until seasons end to talk an extension. Maybe he was tired. Maybe he slumped. Maybe pitchers figured him out more. Who knows. If they wait, they can find out. If he plays well, he can demand a bigger payday anyway. And he’s a way away from free agency. Whats the rush
That said, Mauer is a better hitter than a-gone, and is a catcher moving to first. He’s probably going to be better than a-gone defensively too.
I would take Mauer as my first basemen in 2014 over Adrian Gonzalez, but that isn’t the topic.
And again, no idea why you are bringing up sabrmetrics. This is about segura needing to prove himself a little more before being given an 8 figure deal.
Isn’t that one of the beautiful things about stats. You can pick and choose your start/end points to fit whatever narrative you want to tell (aka adding his decent numbers with his worst numbers, while completely ignoring his good numbers, to fit the narrative of a player likely to struggle (comical!)).
If you look at his stats from month to month, it fits the much publicized story of a young player who played 147 games in ’12, another 35 in winter ball, and ran out of gas in his next 146 games in ’13. Thus why Segura wasn’t allowed to go to winter ball and later admitting to wearing down over the season (power outage and jump in caught stealing noticeably points to a fatigued body).
I would take his comments about wearing down with a grain of salt. If he just had a horrible time and found it hard in the second half do you really expect him to come out and say, “Yah I was awful…pitches got hard”?
No! The guy is trying to get a lot of money…obviously he is going to say he was just tired whether that is true or not.
It was the entire organization that said that, with Segura finally giving the token “I wore down” comment recently. I’m aware of the posturing that takes place (organization covering a potential issue for their top player; player seeking bargaining power).
That’s why I pointed out the heavy workload and noticeable decline in stats that can easily be attributed to a fatigued body – power, speed/quickness.
Now is the time, quality SS don’t come around much. I would buy low on his second half last season, since Jean himself claimed to be ‘tired’. He basically played year round last season for the first time ever because of Winter ball.
Segura has to agree the extension, too. He’s not going to sign one if they’re low-balling him off of his poor second half. Especially if he feels it was due to being tired.
Hey, worked for the cubs!
fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-to-do-with-jean-segura/
18% LD rate with a .326 BABIP.
I’d def wait to see more of Segura before locking him up
I wonder what each teams figures look like. Would be really interesting to see the valuations based on last season.
how can Segura say he has not heard any talks about an extension and that his agent is handling it yet the agent and team are shelving negotiations. I thought the player had to be apprised of offers so the player can say yea or nay? Why would a player want to be so hands off? What if the agent turns away an offer the player would have liked?
Agent, like an attorney, can handle all negotiations. And if an offer is made, the agent can bring it to the player.
The player has to agree, but many agents handle all negotiations on the players behalf