The Yankees and standout closer David Robertson haven’t had any discussions about a contract extension, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his daily blog (Insider subscription required/recommended). The free-agent-to-be could end up being hit with a qualifying offer this winter, Olney writes, and given the declining willingness teams have shown to pay big money for relievers, he could be inclined to take the deal. Doing so would give the Yankees an elite arm at a decent price without assuming any long-term risk.
More from Olney’s blog and the rest of the AL East…
- Red Sox GM Ben Cherington hasn’t made a formal offer to Jon Lester since the four-year, $70MM pact the team offered in Spring Training. Cherington wouldn’t be doing his due diligence if he didn’t at least listen to offers for his ace, in order to gauge whether or not a club like the Dodgers would offer up a top prospect like Joc Pederson or Corey Seager, Olney continues.
- Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal takes things a step further, writing that it is time for the Red Sox to trade Lester. MacPherson notes that the lack of a competitive offer shows a clear unwillingness to take that type of risk on the organization’s part. If the team wasn’t willing to go to $100MM or so in Spring Training, MacPherson asks, why then, would it vault into Zack Greinke territory by offering a market value extension or free agent contract? Collecting a draft pick and letting Lester walk is a “timid half-measure,” MacPherson concludes.
- The Blue Jays have shown interest in Rockies outfielder Brandon Barnes, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. However, while the Jays have scouted Barnes extensively, they’ve yet to put together an offer.
- Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports (via Twitter) that Blue Jays top prospect Dalton Pompey has changed representation and is now a client of CAA Sports. The toolsy center fielder hit his way onto Baseball America’s midseason Top 50 prospect list, ranking 47th overall.
- While the Yankees are focused on adding pitcher, John Harper of the New York Daily News opines that the team should turn its focus to Marlon Byrd. Injuries to Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira have left Brett Gardner looking like the most dangerous hitter in the lineup, Harper writes, and Byrd has more homers than the entire outfield of Ichiro Suzuki, Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury combined. While there’s been no indication that the Yanks are interested, one executive tells Harper that GM Brian Cashman has gotten very good at keeping acquisitions under wraps.
I can’t say I would agree paying your closer 14 million would be a descent price for one year of service. Sure it’s not a long term deal, and the Yankees can certainly afford it, but there is little descent about it. Only Mariano Rivera has ever made more than 14 million for a season of work.
It’s going to be more like $16M actually.
Well there you have it. I can’t see giving Robertson the highest single year ever paid to a closer, and then calling it reasonable.
I don’t think it’s a bad deal. The Yankees would probably prefer he declines then try to work out a long-term contract at a lower AAV when he has less leverage to other teams. I still think it’s a no-brainer to offer it to him.
A full season of Robertson is going to be worth two to three wins. Just because teams haven’t historically paid that high of a value for the position doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be justifiable for him.
It’s higher than I’d like to go for a reliever if I were running a club, but his 2014 season is going to end up being worth $18MM+.
And if the end result is him declining and taking three years at a lower AAV, that’s not a bad outcome either.
I must say while I like WAR as general stat for evaluating position player and to a lesser extent stating pitchers. For relievers I think using WAR and WAR per dollar arguments is incredibly flawed.
In Robertson’s case specifically, fWAR rates his 37.2 inning pitched this year (1.8 fWAR) as more valuable that his 66.1 inning last year (1.6 fWAR). It place far to high a value on K/9 which can fluctuate massively over the small sample sizes relievers provide each season. Aside from K/9 (and FIP which is highly dependent on K/9) Robertson has actually done worse in every statistical category this year.
Sabermetrics are a great tool but they really need to be taken with a grain of salt. WAR per dollar arguments are being overused as the be all end all stat.
If the Dodgers are willing to include Pederson in a deal for Lester I feel like you have to make that deal. Of course this is all speculation and no idea if they even would want to do something like that but Boston’s biggest weakness this year seems to be their awful OF. If they can do something like that, always the possibility of signing Scherzer in the off season. Although Bos seems to be acting like they’re pinching pennies recently when it comes to new deals.
Maybe they’d take Crawford or Ethier at a big discount along with some midlevel warm bodies.
I have a hard time believing they’d take CC back, it would have to be a MAJOR discount.
I’m sure it would be. If the Dodgers are prepared to promote Pederson (and we’ve seen no sign of it yet) then they would have to move one of their LH outfielders at pretty much any return they can get, and Crawford is clearly the most expendable, followed by Ethier. CC has at least a little tread left on the tire.
I agree. If Sox could get Pederson in the deal then Boston needs to pull the trigger. Something tells me things may heat up next week. Boston just dropped 3 of 4 to the ‘Jays and now have 3 against Tampa and then another 3 against the ‘Jays before 7/31 deadline. This weekend could completely take them out and force them into seller mode next week.
Not sure why they would do that. Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Beckett is way more than sufficient for the postseason.
I would strongly consider trading Lester within the division to the O’s or Jays. They probably have the greatest need and could put together a stronger package. They aren’t going to re-sign him, and you get a bit of leverage in demanding an in-division premium.
You could try to ask the O’s on Gausman(since they hate him)or Harvey. Maybe ask the Jays for Daniel Norris or Osuna.
Why would the dodgers give up a big prospect for a half a season rental . When they could go after price who is better and has one more year on his contract
Lester would not be traded for anything less than two top prospects at least. Price is probably not going to be traded with the way Tampa Bay has been playing.
Would you give up joc for lester ? Dodgers arent as good we think they are i see every game they play , they aren’t that good there struggling at the plate and pitching is not that good ryu has good games the same as bad games greinke is in a funk aswell.
I’m saying Cherington would not trade Lester unless it was a package for two of Urias, Pederson, and Seager, + some lower caliber prospects as well. Lester has the second highest WAR in the majors this year, he is definitely ace material. It would be foolish to expect anything less for him.
You sure you realize we are talking Jon Lester. Not Tulo?
Lester has the second highest WAR among pitchers. Only Hernandez has a higher WAR. Also Trout has a higher WAR than Tulo.
Pretty much asking for the whole farm system. They say urias might be another fernando valenzuela. Hes only 17 i wouldn’t trade him . Besides stan said he wants a good farm system i doub’t he’ll give up for lester
Well whether the Dodgers are willing to make a deal or not, that’s what it will take to get Lester. If you trade for a superstar at the deadline, you’re pretty much going to have to sacrifice your farm.
Wouldn’t he be foolish not to take the best offer if he didn’t believe he was going to resign Lester? I’d guess the Dodgers and everyone else will say no to the price you ask. Is he going to stomp his feet and just take the compensation pick?
Given the way Cherington decision making goes (minus 2013), yes, that’s probably what’s going to happen.
Which is why it isn’t happening. The Dodgers don’t have a problem with the top of the rotation so it makes no sense to sacrifice the future for a rental, even an ace rental such as Lester, especially when the market is loaded with credible 4/5 starters who won’t rob the farm.
No way they give up Urias or Pederson for Lester, let alone two. 1.5 years of Shard and half a year of hammel got one top 20, you want 2 for half a year of lester??!!??
No. Management has made this totally clear multiple times. Why the sports media never gets the message is the real question.
Dodgers have the best starters’ ERA in the NL, and that’s with Haren and Beckett struggling lately. The pitching will be just fine.
Lester isn’t the top pitcher on the market, and is a FA after the season anyways. If the dodgers are trading that package of prospects for anyone it would be for Hamels or price or an elite hitter most likely. Not a rental
The answer is they won’t. Management can say again and again that they will not trade important prospects for temporary solutions, but again and again someone in the media argues that they will.
The only way the Dodgers offer either of those guys is if Lester signs an extension with them. I can only dream the Sox get Pederson, that outfield needs help.
Dodgers will still be losing he’s going to want atleast 120 for 6 years
I suggested this a while back:
Kemp (plus cash to pay down to 14M per year, 35M), Joc, and Dominguez to Boston for Lester, Uehara, and C prospect Swihart.
Dodgers would be renting out two guys for 2 months (plus playoffs), but get a catching prospect back.
Boston get not one, but two much needed OFs and a live arm for the pen next year. Hell, if Kemp takes to Fenway him and Joc could even rally the Redsoxs.
are you calling Swihart a C prospect?
never mind. You meant catcher prospect. Forget what I said.
Take Swihart out of there and I think that’s a pretty fair deal. He was just listed in the top 15 of BA’s midseason top 50 and is arguably the top catching prospect in the minors.
I’d be curious to see what kind of haul the Sox could get if they offered to take Eithier’s contract back in a Koji + Lester deal. Joc + Urias + Dominguez?
Maybe, I guess it comes down to how much money is thrown in on Kemp or replacing Dominguez with a higher prospect.
Still think it is a good deal for Boston as is, and they owe us one 🙂
Joc and Kemp help now, Swihart in maybe a couple years? Does Boston have any OF guys to help in 2015 or will it just be a FA need?
Boston doesn’t have much on the farm close to ready, at least not with any power. Mookie Betts is a fireplug, but as an OF, he profiles @ CF and they already have Bradley Jr. there. He’s too small to be the power hitter they need. That’s the problem, they have some nice defensive OF that could hit for average and run the bases, but anybody that profiles for power isn’t that good. The rest of the bunch (Brentz, Hassan) don’t look like they’ll ever be more than journeymen in the majors. There may be some guys at the lower levels.
Boston doesn’t have much on the farm close to ready, at least not with any power. Mookie Betts is a fireplug, but as an OF, he profiles @ CF and they already have Bradley Jr. there. He’s too small to be the power hitter they need. That’s the problem, they have some nice defensive OF that could hit for average and run the bases, but anybody that profiles for power isn’t that good. The rest of the bunch (Brentz, Hassan) don’t look like they’ll ever be more than journeymen in the majors. There may be some guys at the lower levels.
I do not think the dodgers care much about payroll, at least not to the extent they use prospects to move salary.
True, though they have said that they don’t want to go much higher with their payroll… and they’d probably love to spend Eithier’s 18 mil per elsewhere. Eithier and Kemp aside, I can definitely see the Dodgers and Sox working things out. Swihart + Lester for Joc, Anderson, and a PTBNL?
Joc and Anderson would be and interesting package if we got Swihart back…could be smoke with a trade to Boston…needs and prospects match up.
The Dodgers aren’t going to offer Joc and Urias for 1 1/2 seasons of David Price, much less a half a season of Lester and half of Uehara. Zero chance.
Right, but by shedding Eithier’s salary it’d allow them to make Lester an offer he couldn’t refuse. Still probably too much to ask, just sort of thinking out loud. I’m admittedly biased here as a Sox fan.
Interesting deal, but there is an issue with that. The Dodgers are left with a sub par outfield! Aside from Puig, Crawford & Ethier aren’t really the answer. Dodgers need a CF’er and that’s just what Joc is. I don’t think Ned is dealing Joc, Arias or Seager. Zach Lee & Chris Anderson on the other hand might be touchable, but even they are iffy since they are basically major league ready. Besides, ownership has made it clear that rebuilding the farm system is one of the main priorities, so I don’t see any top prospect being moved, especially since it’s only for a 2 month rental. (In your suggested case)
Don’t disagree, just thinking out loud.
Building the farm system is why I added Swihart. I break it down this way:
Joc>Swihart as a prospect = Uehara and Dominguez swap to make up difference.
Kemp plus cash for Lester.
At the end of the day, Boston can afford to trade Swihart for an OF as they have Vasquez now up and doing well.
Boston prefers Swihart over Vasquez.
As they should, but prospects are prospects so I guess it would come down to how the feel about Joc. OF is an immediate need, Catcher is not, I guess that was my point.
Not sure Boston would give up Vasquez because he ould be catching for them in 2015, right?
Vasquez is the primary catcher now and with Lester gone, he would catch even more because Ross is Lester’s personal catcher. Boston values Swihart because he has more offensive upside while Vasquez is a defensive stud. They’d probably like to give Swihart a chance to win the job, but you’re right, they need OF help badly.
One high-rated, just about ready prospect is just about the going price for a pitcher of Lester’s level on a rental. With 2-3 years on his contract, it would take a couple top prospects and a couple more middlin’ ones. The way Lester is pitching, he’d have a sub 2.00 ERA in the NL.
You’ve gotta be a Red Sox fan 🙂
Nope, bleeding blue.
I just realize it takes something to get something. CK, Greinke, Lester, and Ryu with Uehara and Jansen closing out the last two frames is about as good as it gets.
Would love to see Joc as our CF for the next 10 years, but I would gladly take a Championship this year.
I think if you were pretty sure the Dodgers would NOT make the playoff without making a deal like this, OK but otherwise, you’re giving up too much.
I think if you were pretty sure the Dodgers would NOT make the playoff without making a deal like this, OK but otherwise, you’re giving up too much.
I’m a Sox fan and I think you might be giving away too much unless you think you can sign Lester.
Would you want the lease to Dodger Stadium while you’re asking for everything?
I guess when the fans of both teams do not like a trade it is fair 🙂
I don’t know what Boston fans would think about it, but it sure sounds to me like you’d give way the Dodger store. An everyday OF of Crawford, Ethier and Puig with nothing to back it up but Van Slyke does not look like a championship to me.
Future Timeline
7/26: Offer weak 4/80MM Contract
7/27: Tell fans we tried to make it work
7/29: Trade Lester
8/01: Bash Lester in the media (beer and chicken stuff per Lucchino)
I’m always been curious how many people.does the team staff exclusively for smear campaigns.
Just Lucchino.
I wonder what Robertson would be worth on the trade market? Could bring back a impact player to help the team’s weak offense? They could move Betances into the closer roll.
I think we can say (at this point) the Yankees aren’t sellers, and if they aren’t sellers, they aren’t going to trade Robertson.