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David Robertson

Phillies Had Reached Out To David Robertson Before Alvarado Suspension

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The Phillies bullpen took a huge hit over the weekend, as José Alvarado was hit with an 80-game suspension after a failed performance-enhancing drug test. Players suspended for PEDs are barred from participating in the postseason that year. Alvarado should return to the Phils bullpen in early August, but he will not be a factor in October.

Relief pitching stood out as a clear target for the Phils even before they lost their closer. To that end, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Philadelphia reached out to free agent reliever David Robertson prior to the announcement about Alvarado’s suspension. Robertson remains unsigned, of course, and Feinsand writes that initial talks with Philadelphia never seriously developed.

Perhaps the Phillies will look to reengage with the All-Star righty now that circumstances have changed. Robertson, who turned 40 in April, has not provided any indication that he’s retiring. At the same time, he clearly wasn’t motivated to take what he considered below-market money to sign. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month that Robertson had sought a $10MM contract during the offseason. That’s not an outlandish number for one season of a high-end setup man.

Robertson pitched for Philly in 2019 and ’22, combining for a 3.30 ERA over those separate stints. He remained a key high-leverage arm with the Rangers last year. He reeled off a career-high 72 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. Robertson punched out more than a third of opponents while averaging 93.3 MPH on the cutter that has long served as his primary offering. While there’s always a risk that a player’s production will drop off sharply in his late 30s or early 40s, Robertson didn’t show any obvious signs of decline a year ago.

That makes it fairly surprising that he wasn’t able to find a deal to his liking early in the offseason. It’s far more difficult to see him commanding a significant salary on a midseason contract, as teams tend to be up against their imposed budgets (at least until closer to the trade deadline). Alvarado is not paid during his suspension, so he’ll lose nearly $4MM of his $9MM salary. That could theoretically open spending room for the Phils, but Alvarado will return to the payroll for the final two months of the season and it’s unclear whether Robertson is willing to budge at all on his asking price.

The trade deadline is a little more than two months off. The Phils made one of the biggest reliever moves at last summer’s deadline, acquiring rental closer Carlos Estévez from the Angels for a pair of pitching prospects. They might be similarly aggressive this July. They’ll have a tough time pulling off a significant trade within the next few weeks, though.

The Cardinals have long been expected to move Ryan Helsley this summer, but they’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past month and are within a game of the NL Central lead. The Nationals will probably deal Kyle Finnegan at some point, though it seems unlikely that’ll happen two months into the season. The reeling Orioles have a couple arms (e.g. Félix Bautista, Keegan Akin) who’d generate interest if they’re willing to listen on players who are controllable beyond this year. Feinsand highlights a few speculative trade candidates on the handful of truly rebuilding teams, but those clubs (Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, Pirates) rank near the bottom of the league in bullpen effectiveness.

For now, Jordan Romano is expected to return to the closing role in Philadelphia. The offseason signee has kept opponents off the board in each of his past eight outings. He hasn’t allowed a hit in any of four most recent appearances. Romano’s season numbers are weighed down by a horrendous start, but he’s been dominant since the calendar turned to May. Matt Strahm is an excellent setup option from the left side. They’re light on right-handed options to bridge the gap to Romano, as Orion Kerkering remains inconsistent because of scattershot command.

Details On Lance Lynn/David Robertson Offseason Asking Prices

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David Robertson was the 47th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, yet the veteran reliever is still looking for a contract as the calendar approaches mid-April.  Veteran starter Lance Lynn was an honorable mention on our list, and while there wasn’t any indication that Lynn was considering hanging up the cleats after 13 big league seasons, Lynn rather surprisingly announced his retirement two weeks ago.

On paper, both pitchers seemed like sure bets to land respectable contracts this winter, but what happened?  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale explored the subject as part of a larger piece about the somewhat still market that several free agents (including even top names like Corbin Burnes) faced this offseason, or in past offseasons.  As Lynn put it, “you know what you think you’re worth, you know where you want to be, but teams look to try to get a guy as cheap as possible…..I was in a weird market where every team could afford me, but 20 to 25 teams are not looking to compete.  Every team has the same playbook.”

The Cardinals didn’t exercise their $12MM club option on Lynn for the 2025 season, instead buying him out for $1MM and sending the veteran back onto the open market.  Robertson was also technically tied to a $7MM mutual option with the Rangers for 2025, but since mutual options are almost always declined by one or both sides, it was no surprise that Robertson passed on his side of the option and instead took a $1.5MM buyout.

Lynn had a 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with St. Louis last year, with a slate of below-average Statcast metrics and two IL stints due to knee inflammation.  His SIERA was 4.40, though overall, Lynn’s secondary numbers were more or less the same as they were in 2023, when Lynn was perhaps unlucky to post a 5.73 ERA over 183 2/3 combined innings with the White Sox and Dodgers.

Acknowledging his age (37), injury history, and modest production, Lynn went into the offseason with an $8MM asking price, a significant decrease from both his Cards club option and from the eight-figure average annual values that he has earned over the better part of the last decade.  Lynn was also open to the idea of moving to the bullpen and possibly a high-leverage role, and some teams expressed interest about this possibility.  Still, the Cubs were the only team publicly linked to Lynn’s market, and Lynn heard from other teams that they were only willing to sign him for $4MM if he waited until around June.

“I didn’t hear anything for so long, then everyone started offering basically the same thing,” Lynn said.  “Every team seemed to say, ’This is the best deal you’re going to get.’  When I kept saying, ’No, you’re only paying me half of what I’m worth,’ they said, ’What are you going to do, just not play?’  Well, my answer is yes.”

Obviously the concept of what a particular player is “worth” is subjective, and it seems like no team shared Lynn’s opinion that he would produce $8MM or more of value in 2025.  Lynn’s stance doesn’t seem unreasonable, given his long track record in the majors and the simple fact that every team is always in need of pitching.  Increasingly, however, teams have been less willing to pay past market-established prices for a veteran innings-eater type, as clubs prefer to cover those innings at the back of a rotation with multiple younger pitchers, relievers, or an even lower-cost veteran on a non-guaranteed contract.

Robertson’s situation is perhaps even harder to figure.  Nightengale writes that the reliever was looking for a $10MM salary in his next contract, after earning $10MM in a one-year deal with the Mets in 2023 and then last winter’s $11.5MM guarantee from the Rangers.  Ten different relievers (not counting Clay Holmes, who signed with the Mets a starter) inked deals with at least a $10MM average annual value this past offseason, so Robertson’s ask wasn’t out of line with the rest of the market.

Though Robertson just celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this week, he wasn’t showing much sign of slowing down while posting a 3.00 ERA over 72 innings with Texas last season.  His 33.4% strikeout rate was one of the best of his career and one of the best of any hurler in baseball in 2024, and his cutter remained one of the game’s more devastating pitches.  Robertson’s walk rate was below average and his hard-contact numbers were only okay, though he limited the hardest contact in the form of very strong barrel numbers.

Robertson’s impressive season came on the heels of two other quality years in 2022-23, so it wasn’t like he was having a sudden late-career revival.  The Cubs (again) and Tigers both reportedly had interest in Robertson this winter, but no deals emerged anywhere, despite the long list of teams who were openly looking for high-leverage bullpen help.  Looking at that list of other relievers who landed a $10MM AAV, there are several names on that list coming off less-productive and more injury-plagued seasons than Robertson, or who lack even his three-year track record of success (to say nothing of Robertson’s overall success across 16 seasons in the Show).

It could be that teams simply couldn’t look past Robertson’s looming 40th birthday, and the added risk associated with committing substantial money to any player of an advancing age.  That said, the exact same logic applied to Robertson heading into age-39 season, and that didn’t prevent him from landing a solid payday from the Rangers.  It seems logical that Robertson would be seeking out a comparable salary coming off an even better season than he delivered in 2023, yet he remains unsigned.  There hasn’t been much word on what Robertson’s next step might be, in regards to whether he is now looking at being an in-season signing, or if he might be weighing a year off or even retirement.

Poll: Where Will David Robertson Sign?

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With the calendar now flipped to March, the overwhelming majority of the league’s top free agents have already signed. There are still a handful of stragglers remaining on the market, however, and one of the most notable among those is veteran closer David Robertson.

With his 40th birthday just around the corner, Robertson is still searching for a landing spot ahead of what would be his 17th season in the majors. After a ten-year stretch as a quality late-inning arm for the Yankees and White Sox from 2009 to 2018 where he posted a 2.76 ERA (152 ERA+) with a nearly matching 2.77 FIP, Robertson faded from the spotlight for a few years due to injuries, leading him to pitch in just 19 games total between 2019 and 2021. While many veterans who miss the majority of three consecutive seasons due to injury in their mid-30s either retire or fail to re-establish themselves in the majors, Robertson picked right back up where he left off after signing with the Cubs in 2022.

Since then, Robertson’s played for five different teams across three seasons and found plenty of success. The righty has pitched to a 2.82 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.24 FIP in 201 innings of work with a 31.1% strikeout rate. With 40 saves in that time, Robertson is a capable ninth-inning pitcher who’s shown he’s also comfortable handling a setup role. That role flexibility is somewhat rare for elite veteran arms, and could make Robertson a viable option even for teams with a set closer in the ninth inning. Robertson’s overall profile would suggest that he’s likely to land a deal in line with other quality late-inning veterans like Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, and Jose Leclerc. With that being said, given the late point in the calendar and Robertson’s age, it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock if clubs had some concerns about his ability to get fully up to speed in time for Opening Day on March 27.

In terms of potential suitors, perhaps the most on-paper fit for Robertson’s services is the Diamondbacks. Arizona made no bones about their desire to add a late-inning arm with closing experience throughout the winter, but they’ve been unsuccessful in that pursuit to this point and instead have added middle relief veterans like Kendall Graveman and Shelby Miller as they look to add experienced arms to their relief corps. Robertson would be an immediate and substantial upgrade, but it’s difficult to see a financial fit between the sides given that Robertson is likely in line for a healthy one-year guarantee while the Diamondbacks are already at a franchise record level of spending after an offseason that saw them add star right-hander Corbin Burnes to the rotation. That could lead the club to focus instead on its internal options, a possibility MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

Plenty of other teams have been connected to Robertson throughout the winter aside from Arizona, though they all come with question marks of their own. The incumbent Rangers added plenty of talent to their bullpen this winter, but lack a proper closer after watching Robertson, Leclerc, and Kirby Yates all depart in free agency this winter. That’s enough to make Robertson a logical fit for the club on paper, but much like Arizona, the club appears to be at or near its budget capacity for the 2025 campaign, which would make adding Robertson to the fold a difficult task.

The Cubs and Tigers were both connected to Robertson at various points throughout the winter, and a return to Chicago in particularly was frequently bandied about in the rumor mill throughout the offseason. Those rumors persisted even after the Cubs added Ryan Pressly to handle the ninth inning, but their subsequent trade with the Dodgers to acquire Ryan Brasier may have put an end to their pursuit of Robertson. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not been connected to Robertson in earnest since signing right-hander Tommy Kahnle, although its worth noting that Kahnle has just eight career saves and that the Tigers were reported to be interested in specifically adding an arm with closing experience to their late-inning mix.

While those are the only teams that have been explicitly connected to Robertson this winter, there’s plenty of other potential suitors for his services. The Red Sox are known to have been in the market earlier this winter for a right-handed reliever who could join Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman in their late-inning mix. The Cardinals are known to covet a veteran right-handed relief arm to replace Kittredge in their bullpen, and the Phillies lost both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this winter while only adding Jordan Romano. If a rebuilding club like the Marlins or White Sox was willing to invest some money into the big league roster, either one could reunite with Robertson in the first half before shopping him at the trade deadline for future talent.

Where do MLBTR readers think Robertson will ultimately land? Have your say in the poll below:

The D-backs’ Closing Competition

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The Diamondbacks entered the offseason in search of a new first baseman, a closer and some right-handed thump in the lineup, among other items on the to-do list. They’ve broadly succeeded, acquiring Josh Naylor from the Guardians to replace free agent Christian Walker and re-signing Randal Grichuk. The Snakes haven’t found a slam-dunk closer, but they signed a new (co) ace, shocking the industry with their signing of Corbin Burnes for six years and $210MM.

While there’s still one marquee free agent reliever on the market — David Robertson has yet to sign — it appears increasingly likely that the Diamondbacks will largely go with the arms who are already in camp as they look to sort out the ninth inning. Arizona’s payroll is already projected for a franchise-record $195MM. That’s a new highwater mark by a measure of nearly $30MM. We can always adopt the “never say never” mentality as long as there are a few viable closing options on the free agent and trade markets, but the D-backs may already have their closer in house. At present, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez appear to be the front-runners.

Puk, acquired at the deadline from the Marlins in exchange for young slugger Deyvison De Los Santos and outfielder Andrew Pintar, enjoyed a quietly dominant season in 2024. His cumulative 3.15 ERA looks more good than great, but it’s skewed by a failed experiment wherein the Marlins tried to stretch him back out as a starter early in the season. Puk was clobbered for 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen, and from that point forth was arguably the best reliever in the sport.

After giving up 17 earned runs in his four starts, Puk only allowed 11 more earned runs for the entire season. He posted a 1.72 ERA out of the bullpen in 2024, fanning a colossal 35% of his opponents against a terrific 5.1% walk rate. Opponents averaged only 86.6 mph off the bat against him in that time with a middling 32.6% hard-hit rate. Per Statcast, only five of his opponents’ batted balls in that time were barreled. Puk allowed a run in his second appearance with the D-backs and then went on a run for the ages, rattling off 23 2/3 scoreless innings with a 38-to-4 K/BB ratio. He punched out 44.7% of opponents in that career-best run.

Martinez was nearly as dominant for the early portion of the 2024 season. The young flamethrower posted a 1.60 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and mammoth 64.5% grounder rate in his first 50 innings of work. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate were nearly identical to Puk’s marks as a reliever. An 11.5% walk rate was in clear need of improvement, but for a 22-year-old who averaged better than 100 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker, it’s hard to draw up a more promising start.

That run of dominance didn’t last the full season, however. While Martinez remained a solid reliever, his 3.90 ERA over the final 27 2/3 innings of his season was far less eye-catching. The young righty’s strikeout rate actually ticked up during that span, perhaps due to roughly doubling the usage of his four-seamer at the expense of his sinker, but his grounder rate fell sharply. There was surely some poor fortune in play, as Martinez was hampered by a .388 BABIP during this stretch despite continuing to limit hard contact (and allowing only one home run).

Whether in the ninth inning or working in a setup capacity, both Puk and Martinez will be in high-leverage roles this season. They were two of the D-backs’ top five arms in terms of their average leverage index — but not the top two. Paul Sewald’s departure in free agency subtracted one of Arizona’s top leverage arms, but it was actually righty Ryan Thompson who found himself most frequently in high-leverage spots, followed by Martinez and then by fellow righty Kevin Ginkel.

The 32-year-old Thompson isn’t the prototypical power arm often associated with pressure-packed, late-inning situations. He’s a sidearming righty who averages just 91 mph on his sinker and 92.5 mph on his lesser-used four-seamer. Thompson’s 19.1% strikeout rate was well below the 23.4% league average among relievers. However, he boasts a 61% grounder rate, rarely issues walks (5.5%) and posted nearly identical results versus righties (.254/.299/.377) and lefties (.254/.293/.377). He picked up two saves and 24 holds.

Ginkel, 30, has quietly emerged as a key arm in Phoenix. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly establish himself as a reliable reliever until his age-28 season, in 2022. Over the past three seasons, he’s tossed 164 2/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA. It’s not necessarily flashy, as Ginkel is more good-than-great in terms of strikeout rate (26.5%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%), ground-ball rate (47.1%) and fastball velocity (96 mph average) in that time. Even with the lack of one standout area in which he truly excels, his above-average rates across the board have made him a consistent and reliable late-inning option for manager Torey Lovullo.

Also entering the mix is 34-year-old Kendall Graveman, who signed a one-year, $1.35MM deal after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. With 24 saves and 56 holds from 2020-23, Graveman is no stranger to late-inning work. After moving to the bullpen in Sept. 2020 with the Mariners, Graveman rattled off 197 1/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 49.2% grounder rate. At his best, Graveman averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and offered a Ginkel-esque blend of above-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates while sitting around 96 mph with his main offering. Whether he can return to that form in the wake of last year’s shoulder surgery is an open question.

However it shakes out, the Snakes look to have a solid quintet of arms rounding out the late-inning group at Chase Field. Lefty Joe Mantiply offers a solid middle-inning complement who has picked up around 12 holds per year over the past four seasons. A starter who doesn’t make the rotation (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson) could hold down another spot. Bryce Jarvis, Kyle Nelson and non-roster candidates like Shelby Miller, Scott McGough, John Curtiss and Josh Winder (among others) will vie for what’s likely one open spot.

There’s enough left on both the trade and free agent markets that it’s not impossible to envision a change still impacting Lovullo’s bullpen composition. Signing Robertson might be too pricey, likely pushing the D-backs into $200MM+ payroll territory for the first time, but if GM Mike Hazen ultimately finds a trade partner for Montgomery, any savings could make Robertson feel likelier. The Padres have been open to offers on Robert Suarez. Trading within the division probably isn’t either team’s first choice, though. A Ryan Helsley trade before next offseason feels virtually inevitable but also seems likelier to happen in-season at this point.

In any bullpen, there’s almost always room for one more addition. But, if this is the group the D-backs take into the season, they can still feel good about an impressive breadth of experienced late-inning arms who have the makings of a strong overall unit.

Cubs Open To Further Bullpen Additions

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The Cubs added a new closer when they formally acquired Ryan Pressly (and $5.5MM) from the Astros in exchange for pitching prospect Juan Bello earlier this morning. That adds a much-needed veteran arm to a group that generally lacked late-inning, high-leverage experience. However, the Cubs “aren’t done” with addressing their bullpen, Bruce Levine reported recently in an appearance on 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh Show (audio link). Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune and Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic both implied in writing about the Pressly swap that the Cubs would like to add another bullpen arm as well.

Among the pitchers with whom the Cubs have had some talks are Ryne Stanek and David Robertson, Levine noted. Both Stanek and Robertson had previously been reported to be among the Cubs’ targets. Either pitcher would make sense in the current context of the Chicago bullpen. Pressly seems all but certain to slot into the closer’s role after waiving his no-trade clause to approve a deal to a more favorable role with the Cubs. Any forthcoming addition to supplant Pressly would smack of last year’s Josh Hader signing in Houston — one that GM Dana Brown suggested earlier today “fractured” the relationship between him and Pressly to some extent (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

“Anytime you take a major league player out of a role where they feel comfortable, I think it’s going to fracture your relationship some,” Brown said of signing Hader and pushing Pressly into a setup role. “I think we continued to communicate. He’s a true professional. And I kept it real as a true professional myself. I think there was some frustration, which I totally understand from a competitor. You’re moving a guy at a position who felt like he didn’t deserve to lose his job, because you acquired another elite closer like a Hader.”

With Pressly in line to handle ninth inning duties, barring any major downturn in his performance, a veteran who’s pitched extensively in a setup role would make sense. Robertson, already a former Cub, would be a logical fit. He’s excelled in both a setup and closing capacity in the past. The Cubs have more than $35MM worth of space between their current luxury tax projection (per RosterResource) and the $241MM threshold, so even the likely eight-figure salary Robertson will command should fit comfortably onto the books.

Other setup options of note on the market include Phil Maton, Tommy Kahnle and Andrew Chafin. If the Cubs want to roll the dice on an injury rebound candidate, any of Kendall Graveman, Daniel Bard, Lou Trivino, Keynan Middleton or Drew Smith could be had on affordable deals. Pressly, free agent signee Caleb Thielbar and trade pickup Eli Morgan are the three newcomers to manager Craig Counsell’s bullpen thus far in the offseason. Righty Colin Rea has experience both as a starter and a long reliever and could conceivably fill either role, depending on how the rest of the starting staff holds up.

Tigers Pursuing Relievers With Closing Experience

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The Tigers are interested in adding a late-inning reliever who has experience as a closer, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold identifies top unsigned reliever Carlos Estévez as one of a number of bullpen targets in whom the Tigers have shown interest.

Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.

The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.

Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.

According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.

Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets

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As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson

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The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.

Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.

The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.

Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.

While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.

If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:

David Robertson Declines Mutual Option With Rangers

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Veteran right-hander David Robertson is declining his side of the mutual option he holds with the Rangers, as noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Robertson forgoes a $7MM salary in 2025 in favor of a $1.5MM buyout and the ability to test free agency.

Robertson, 39, returns to the open market on the heels of another solid season. He served as the top set-up man for closer Kirby Yates in Texas this season, pitching to a strong 3.00 ERA with 2.65 FIP in 72 innings of work. While the veteran will pitch next year at age 40, he’s shown no signs of slowing down with a 33.4% strikeout rate this year that was his best since 2017. While his 9.1% walk rate was somewhat elevated, it’s a couple of ticks below his 2023 mark and well below the mark he posted in 2022, the campaign that helped to revive his career after three mostly lost seasons due to injuries.

That dominance likely made the decision to head to the open market a fairly easy decision for the veteran as it’s hard to imagine him not beating the $5.5MM he left on the table this winter. While he’s likely to be limited to one-year guarantees due to his age, Robertson’s long track record of success in his nearly two decades as a big leaguer, his ample closing experience, and his ability to strike batters out at elite levels should all earn him a lucrative one-year deal in free agency this winter with a club in need of bullpen help. Virtually every team in the league tends to look for bullpen upgrades over the winter, and the short-term guarantee Robertson figures to command should make him of interest to contenders and rebuilding clubs alike, as even a deadline seller could shop Robertson next summer. That’s a situation Robertson is quite familiar with, as he found himself dealt at the trade deadline in both 2022 and ’23 when the Cubs and Mets shipped him off to the Phillies and Marlins, respectively.

For the Rangers, the departure of Robertson highlights the club’s own needs in the bullpen this winter as he joined Yates and Leclerc in heading to free agency. It’s not hard to imagine the club reuniting with one or more of those players at some point this winter, but with the club expected to try and duck under the luxury tax this winter it’s also possible Chris Young’s front office will instead look for cheaper ways to augment their relief mix such as their recent move to claim Roansy Contreras off waivers from the Angels. Robertson, Leclerc, and Yates combined to make more than $20MM in 2024, after all, and clearing that money off the books while adding relievers on lower-cost deals could go a long way towards helping the Rangers avoid the rising penalties associated with spending into tax territory multiple times in a row. They’ll sure need some established help in the bullpen, however, as the club’s bullpen finished bottom-five in the majors overall this year even in spite of standout performances from Robertson and Yates.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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