Here’s the latest on the Phillies and the numerous trade candidates on their roster…
- The Pirates had a scout watching A.J. Burnett’s start on Friday, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The Bucs are known to be looking for starting pitching and Burnett is certainly a familiar quantity for them. The veteran righty has a partial no-trade clause, though it isn’t known if he can block a deal to Pittsburgh or if Burnett would welcome a deal to a contender that is still close to his Maryland home.
- Cole Hamels has received some trade interest from the Red Sox, though CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman wonders if this could be a tactic to restart extension talks with Jon Lester. Otherwise, Boston’s pursuit of Hamels doesn’t make a lot of sense to Heyman — the Sox could just re-sign Lester, rather than pay a similar price to Hamels through 2018 and have to give up prospects to the Phillies to get him.
- The Blue Jays and Yankees both scouted Cliff Lee’s final rehab start, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes. Lee returns from the DL to start against the Giants tonight, and scouts from several teams are expected in attendance for Lee’s two scheduled starts prior to the July 31st deadline.
Agreed with Heyman on Hamels/Lester. At the price the Phillies are asking, the Red Sox are better off spending $$$ on Lester.
I didn’t see the Hamels thing related to Lester very much – I figured the Red Sox would want both.
Not impossible, but they still have Buchholz and Lackey under contract for next year as well as 5 ML-ready young arms to work in. They can definitely use Hamels OR Lester, but not sure they need both (unless they have other trades in mind to clear the surplus).
If they traded for Hamels, I’m guessing that Webster/De La Rosa would be part of the deal – maybe both.
Yes, that would open up PT a bit. I’m less certain that it makes sense from a financial standpoint. The Red Sox have a very poor offense. They need a couple middle-of-the-order bats far more than they need a four-ace rotation.
it would involve Henry Owens as the main piece. Webster is a B level piece at this point.
But the Red Sox rotation needs some help right now, I wouldn’t be counting on Lackey and Buchholtz to anchor the rotation, and with Peavy likely gone too, the Red Sox rotation could dive fast come next season.
Agreed, Baloo, that is why they need Lester *or* Hamels if they want a solid rotation next year. I just believe they need a couple bats before they even THINK of adding both.Signing Lester and adding Hamels does not make this a playoff team.
They may also be hedging on Lackey–is he actually going to play the last season at league minimum. If he does, that’s a great trading chip (or rotation arm) and if he doesn’t, at least Hamels will be there
If the Sox were to acquire Hamels this week, they could move Lackey to another team and let THEM worry about the option/extension. Hamels is younger and better than Lackey.
I can’t see him playing for 500k next season. It’s going to be interesting to see if he threatens not pitching at all next year.
Pittsburgh really isn’t that “close” to Maryland unless you live on the panhandle.
It was apparently close enough for him to go there in the first place.
How are the Orioles not jumping in on Lee to capitalize on the weak AL East?
Well, just like everyone else O’s Mgmt and Types are waiting around to see if he is healthy. Plus, what do the Phillies want?
Amaro historically has never gotten much in return (when he has traded players), so who’s to say that a package of Eduardo Rodriguez, Tim Berry and Christian Walker wouldn’t get a deal like that done.
Issue here is health and the contract being back loaded. That would be a HUGE haul for the Phills without eating any money.
Because Lee’s contract is an albatross, he’s getting paid $25M this season, $25M next season, and a $27.5M vesting option that automatically hits if he hits 400 IP between this season and next, or get bought out for $12.5M. That’s a quarter of the O’s payroll for one pitcher.
I really think that if the Phillies are going to move Lee they will have to eat some of his salary. You make in a 18m player instead of 25 and the return that you should expect will go a lot higher.
The Phillies will eat salary for more prospects. That shouldn’t be an issue. And with his injury this year, he won’t hit the vesting option.
A report two days ago said that Amaro wants teams to give up top prospects and take Lee’s fully salary.
A report two days ago said that Amaro wants teams to give up top prospects and take Lee’s fully salary.
And on July 21st, that’s exactly what everyone says (er, “leaks”).
Well no, that’s what they said on July 19th. “Leaks” from this site have an impressive accuracy rate.
BREAKING: GMs like to posture
But I will grant you there’s an Amaro factor in play…
I know a thing or two about how the game is played. I’m largely taking Amaro’s history into consideration.
I would have to think/hope that we’re in new territory here and that they’re not still trying to breathe life into their corpse of a roster. We shall see.
I think it was for Hamels that a team would have to give up three top prospects and take on the full contract. I think(hope) Amaro would eat some money to bring back a nice haul for Lee.
I am fairly certain it was regarding Lee.
“One major league source said if the Phillies get a taker on the full contract and they get three top prospects, he’s gone, and Hamels, according to another major league source, wouldn’t mind.”
This is from the morning of July 20th. The day before, Salisbury wrote an article about how the Phillies wanted a serious return for Lee (but didn’t mention whether they would/wouldn’t eat money).
That’s not the one I saw.
Rosenthal today: “The Phillies are willing to eat some money on their major veteran contracts in order “to effectively buy prospects” in trades”
Lee’s contract is expensive, but it’s definitely not an albatross. At least not yet. If he’s healthy, he’s worth the money.
Agree, but with the elbow it is probably to much risk to take on his entire contract before the trade deadline. If he is moved it’ll probably be in August or the winter.
Both Hamels and Lee are also the pitchers who age well. If youre going to hedge money on a 30 year old it better be command lefty or a lefty with a plus plus change up
Well it’s not like Lester is throwing a lot of sliders or curves from a weird angle. And the last couple years before this one he used the change up more frequently. Lester, Lee and Hamels all have somewhat similar repertoires with the admission that Lester was a little more of a power pitcher with a heavier reliance upon the cutter. Their are things to like about Lester; He has been a workhorse since his cancer treatment, he has very strong repeatable mechanics, a natural arm slot and a stout lower half which I often look to with modern day pitchers. I would give Lester his contract if I’m the Sox. I think their is enough there to like and Lester while not an ace. Just not a fan of giving up Betts, Swiihart and Owens for Hamels. Now if the Philles would take Marrero, Coyle and Trey Ball I might be persuaded to rethink my logic. But I’m not a GM or front office guy for the Sox so I’m just talking anyway.
If he’s still a 5 WAR guy like he was last year, he’s paid about right. If he’s the piece that wins you a World Series, then he’s a bargain.
Gausman is involved in that deal…
I know this article didn’t specify the type of prospects for guys like Lee and Hamels, but why should a team have to give up good prospects for them? They aren’t on team friendly deals. One of them would be a 1.5 year rental, is old, and injury prone. Even if Hamels’ deal is now a little team-friendly because the market price increased a little since then, it’s not some super cheap deal.
If the phillies want any decent prospects, they should expect to cover about 90% of the contract prices. Really, those 2 should be traded in a salary dump scenario. Amaro screwed up the franchise for the next 10 years so they might as well at least try to save some money. If they get a C level prospect it should be a plus to Amaro.
Consider the Samardzija deal. Hamels is worth an “A” prospect and a couple “B” prospects. Maybe even two “A” prospects. He is at this point the most $$$-affordable way a team can add a top pitcher.
Price?
A little cheaper this year, similarly priced next year, and much more expensive after that. Depends on your time frame.
He’s not under contract past 2015 so that doesn’t really matter. He’s more cost effective than Hamels.
Yes, exactly. He’s not under contract past 2015. If you want a top pitcher for the remainder of this year and next, then you should prefer Price. If you want a top pitcher through 2018/2019, then you should prefer Hamels. It depends on your time frame.
The difference over the next year and a half is small, perhaps $2M-$3M. Price will receive an arbitration award that is in the ballpark of Hamels’ $22.5M.
A little cheaper this year, similarly priced next year, and much more expensive after that. Depends on your time frame.
Teams will give up good prospects for them because they are two of the top 15 pitchers in baseball (assuming Lee is healthy). Also, everyone keeps saying “injury prone” or “injuries” when talking about Lee. This is his first season since 2007 that he won’t reach 200 innings. Sure he’s had a few seasons where he misses a start or two. But at the end of the day, you are getting your money’s worth for Lee.
Eating 90% of their salaries is insane. That’s asking for a 5+ WAR pitcher – for $4 M a season. The Phillies don’t need a salary dump (because FAs out there aren’t going to turn the team around). The Phillies need prospects. I’m sure they’d eat some of the money (roughly 20-30%) to get back some good prospects.
Injury prone? He’s coming off an injury tonight, but these are his start totals going back to 2008: 31, 34, 28, 32, 30, 31. How is that injury prone?
I get that a team will want him to prove his health right now, that’s why I don’t expect him to be moved by 7/31. But pick up 90% of his 1.5 years of salary just to get something decent? C’mon…
And 90% of Hamels deal, who’s currently pitching at his peak just to get something decent – that’s crazy talk. The Phillies have money – there is very little benefit to just dumping salary on good players. They should (and I assume will) defray the cost of the contracts at the expense of better prospects. I wouldn’t expect them to get all that much if they don’t pick up any salary.
I don’t think Hamels is materially better than Lester, so it’s an odd reason. On the other hand, maybe they think the bolster their rotation for the balance of this year, and swap in Hamels for Lester next year. Shortens the duration of the spend–Hamels has 4 plus a vesting option. Lester will probably be looking for more.
It may “shortens the duration of the spend” but it increases the cost. Hamels will require the Red Sox to surrender a significant number of prospects, Lester will not.
The Yankees have coveted Lee for a long time, I think he is finally reaching the stage of his career where he is a perfect fit for NYY.
Would probably cost Severino and Judge, assuming Lee checks out medically and looks like his normal self tonight and Saturday.
Yeah sorry but the Yanks aren’t doing that.
After tonight Lee is pretty much assured of not moving before the non-waiver deadline.
He could have pitched a perfect game and I can assure you the Yanks still wouldn’t do that
Right now the Yankees need a bat more than anything. Another Phillies player they actually could consider is Marlon Byrd.
Even with their crowded outfield, Byrd is an option?
Byrd would be the every day RFer. Beltran is strictly DH and Ichiro has been awful since he’s become the full time starter. Byrd would give them very valuable offense. His OPS is higher than anyone on the Yankees.
Byrd would probably still cost someone like Judge or Severino in a 1-for-1 given that he’s probably the best available OF and bat. I’d prefer Judge even though Severino is rated higher at this point. Severino has front of the rotation potential, but the Phillies need productive bats more than just about anything right now.
Tough decision for the Yanks. I’d see if I can get trade lower level prospects (10-20 team rank) and pay full salary. We shall see.
Not sure that would drop his value much. The Yankees aren’t on his limited NTC, so there’s not leverage to guarantee his 2016 option to agree to a trade, and he’s only owed about $11M through next year.
I really hadn’t thought about the Yankees as a potential Byrd suitor, but what you proposed in terms of positioning is interesting and might work.
He does meet the age requirement.
The Yankees pitching outside of Kuroda is actually quite young.
Id do whatever it takes to get Joc from the dodgers. He’s a legit young building block piece who would be around when the phillies are finally relevant again.
At this point the only way to get Pederson is trading Hamels, which I’d be surprised to see the Dodgers do unless Kershaw and Greinke both come up injured in the next week and require TJ surgery.
Well, they have inquired about David Price so Hamels is not out of the question.
No, it’s not. It just makes very little sense to improve an already very good rotation when it would take a system gutting move to get a Price or Hamels when there will be a few front of the rotation arms available in free agency.
If they were to acquire a Price or Hamels, IMO Hamels makes more sense because of the contract unless Price agrees to an extension upon completion of the trade. Greinke has an out after next season. Assuming he continues pitching at a high level he could opt out and resign like Sabathia did a few years ago. Wouldn’t have a significant impact on the payroll, but would add years probably until 37-38 years old.
Totally agree although I might be more interested in the Hamels deal if I’m the Dodgers. Not because he is a better pitcher but because the Amaro 3 prospect thing is a dream. I would if I was the Dodgers trade two top five system prospects, Van Slyke, Seagar if the Phillies were willing to take on 2/3 of remaining Crawford or Kemp contract. Then the Dodgers get to keep Joc and would have Hamels to replace Beckett after this year. To me that sounds like a reasonable compromise. Losing Seagar would hurt but the Phillies are going to want something for Hamels and might be willing to gamble on Crawford/Kemp at that price. “Price would be nice” but the cost for that is definitely Seagar, and Pederson and they are not taking Crawford/Kemp for sure.
No, it’s not. It just makes very little sense to improve an already very good rotation when it would take a system gutting move to get a Price or Hamels when there will be a few front of the rotation arms available in free agency.
If they were to acquire a Price or Hamels, IMO Hamels makes more sense because of the contract unless Price agrees to an extension upon completion of the trade. Greinke has an out after next season. Assuming he continues pitching at a high level he could opt out and resign like Sabathia did a few years ago. Wouldn’t have a significant impact on the payroll, but would add years probably until 37-38 years old.
I like Joc a lot, but I wouldn’t give Hamels straight up for him. Lee, I would do that swap (although dodgers probably would not.)
Yup I’d want more than Joc for Hamels and no one is taking Lee til they see a few outings. If he shows he’s healthy by mid-August (if he clears waivers) and the Phils eat some money, I’d expect more than just Joc for Lee.
Scouts will be watching Lee in his next two starts and if he gets rocked or gives up 4 – 5 runs in each start in five innings, his value plummets and Amaro can expect 2 C prospects and filler. The only way he would get a B prospect and maybe two C’s is if they eat at least 14 – 15 M of each of his last three seasons, cutting him down to 10 – 13 M per year. At 25 M for two years and then 27.5, if Philly expect anything more than a bag of baseballs for him, they are in fantasyland, because no one will give up anything of value for that contract.
Or they won’t deal him and wait until the offseason when he rebuilds his value…
He doesn’t have 3 seasons left. He has this year, next year and a team option on 2016. He’s essentially owed $60M if you keep him through 2016 or $45M if you keep him through 2015. So you’re asking them to essentially pay his entire contract to get a B prospect.
As DylanP said, if he pitches poorly, the Phillies will just have to wait until the waiver deadline or the offseason for him to prove he’s back. No reason to move him for peanuts just to get it done by 7/31.
Wouldn’t it be funny if AJ is dealt back to the Pirates (with the Phils eating a significant chunk of salary), only to have him experience another resurgence, much as he did coming from the Yankees? That being said, I;m not sure where he fits in our rotation. He isn’t a front-end guy anymore and I’m not sure who on the back end he bumps. Certainly not Locke or Volquez. Maybe Liriano, if he were to continue to struggle.
“A significant chunk of salary”? His price tag for next year is $15M, but it’s a mutual option. If the Phillies/trade team decline the option, it becomes a player option worth $7.5M with a $1M buyout. That contract isn’t much out of line at all.
Plus, I’m not actually sure that he’s going to want to pitch next year. He had to be talked in to coming back this year. He’s developed a sports hernia (so will need surgery after the season). He’s going to have to rehab from his surgery. And maybe that will all just be too much – to go along with already wanting to be with his family.
EDIT: I should note, though. I wouldn’t be against us chipping in $4-5 M for the rest of the season (basically, almost all of his remaining contract) to get back a second piece.
I don’t think he’ll play in 2015 unless it’s with the Orioles or Nationals. Doubt the Nationals will have any interest with their rotation depth.
What would the Red Sox trade for Hamels?
Wouldn’t be their three top prospects! (Betts, Swihart, Owens?) The Red Sox could part with a couple high-end arms, e.g. De La Rosa and Webster, and potentially toss in another upper-minors prospect like Cecchini (who has struggled this year but was previously ranked high). Even that is a price that would hurt, but you don’t figure to land Hamels for a price that feels good.
I hope the Orioles save the Pirates from themselves and take Burnett. He is no upgrade and surely not worth the price.
I say you trade for Hammels anyways. What’s the worst that happens? You get a very good front of the rotation starter and lose Lester. I get the point that you might lose prospects for nothing since you can just bring Lester back with cash, but come on… You could have both of them. Makes sense to try and do it at least.
While I didn’t clap for Burnett on his return back to Pittsburgh (I deeply and truly appreciate everything he has done for the team, I refused to boo for a man that did so much. He said it was “Pittsburgh or retirement” and I truly believed him) I think the Bucs should move on a trade to get him.
Philly would pay a good chuck of the salary, and AJ is familiar with the Bucs. Really hoping something gets done, looks like the O’s could swipe him.
Morton has been the pitcher with the best consistency. Once Cole gets healthy, he might duplicate what he did last year and throw gems toward the end of the season into the playoffs. If Liriano can get his command back and stay healthy too, he could really get this team going. Volquez has been pitching a lot better. I think
Ray Searage needs to get his boys together, he has done a masterful job of reviving careers of talented player.
Pirates have had some injuries, once these guys get healthy, this team could really go a long way. Add Burnett in this pitching rotation and he becomes the #1 guy in IP and Ks. Put Worley in the bullpen and give him spot starts if anyone should get hurt. LETS GO BUCS!!!
i dont see why people are assuming the Red Sox cant have both Hamels and Lester… this is the Red Sox.