Compared to the problems the Yankees face this offseason, the Red Sox’ issues aren’t so bad, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. With a huge number of ugly contracts on the books (including those of C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran), they’ll be limited in their ability to upgrade. They will, however, get a modest boost in that Derek Jeter’s $12MM salary will come off the books. The Red Sox don’t have as many onerous commitments as the Yankees, and they also have more interesting young players, so if they were to trade a veteran, they would be able to replace him with a young player like Mookie Betts. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- Being traded from the Red Sox to the Athletics helped reduce the amount of speculation surrounding Jon Lester as he approached free agency, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. “Everybody knows it’s two months and then probably not sign a contract with the Oakland A’s. We’re going to go our separate ways and go into free agency,” Lester says. In Boston, Lester faced months of questions about his impending free agency and whether he would re-sign with the Red Sox, but there are no such questions with Oakland. Now he’s about to enter free agency as one of the market’s top pitchers — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently rated Lester the second overall free agent, behind Max Scherzer.
- Jonathan Papelbon’s age and contract give the Phillies reasons to try to trade him this offseason, but Papelbon says he would not mind staying in Philadelphia, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. “I’ve said the perfect ending to this equation would be me on this team righting this ship and possibly closing out a World Series or getting in the playoffs and making a nice run and seeing what happens from there,” says Papelbon. “I think that would be a fairy tale ending if there is one.” Papelbon had previously said he wanted to play for a contender and was willing to waive his limited no-trade clause to do so.
Finally someone is talking about trading a veteran and replacing him with Mookie Betts, as opposed to trading Betts for Hamels, Lagos, Cueto or Gattis. Pedroia and Betts can play on the same team and all will be fine. The Red Sox need to clear a couple outfielders but Betts does not need to be one of them. As a matter of fact he could start in the outfield and be a utility infielder. Why get rid of your cost controlled leadoff hitter when you can eat Victorinos salary and trade Craig, Napoli, or Nava and still have the available cash to get an ace and fill out the staff. Sounds like a plan to me. I hope the Sox go that way.
I admit I’ve been in the trade Mookie for a star starter camp but I’m starting to agree more and more we need him. An outfield of Cespedes, Castillo, and Betts has great potential.
I see the value in trading him for an arm but they are either expensive (Hamels), or under short term control (Cueto, Latos). I guess when I look at his quick route through the system, his excellent peripheral stats, his young age and his 6 years of team control its hard for me to see trading him. Especially given the glut of arms on the market. I just would hate to miss out on him if he is going to be an impactful leadoff hitter.
A bit of wishcasting here, but if you keep Mookie around, and an OF (say Margot) comes up at about the same time Ortiz retires, you could use Mookie to rotate around at all three OF spots, 2B, SS, and maybe some 3B and give those guys days off from fielding to play DH (which may be particularly good for someone like Pedroia in a couple years).
I’ve been looking at Margot’s stats these last couple months. Pumped for him coming to Portland soon to get a look for myself. The Red Sox really have built a new wave of minor leaguers over the last three years. Portland is really where the men get separated from the boys a bit. I like Margot and can’t wait to watch him; hopefully by the second half of next year.
It’s not like McCann was an absolute disaster. Before even accounting for his excellent framing, he had a season worth – according to his 2.3 fWAR & $/WAR – 13 MM. He’ll likely be an albatross later on when he needs to DH, but while he’s catching and catching well, he’s fine. Teixeira, second base/right field (wherever Prado doesn’t play), DH, SS, and 3B are the bigger offensive concerns, unless they re-sign Headley.
McCann is ok going forward. I think the larger issue is the redundancy of Texeira, Beltran and Arod on the current roster. All three are aging corner players who are not versatile in the field and will likely need time at dh. It’s possible all three play well and put up decent seasons but they are all there for another 2 years at least. Sabathia could also remake himself but it’s safe to say his days as an ace are done. All in all the Yankees have a bunch of players who are hard to move making high salaries. In addition they have little in the upper minors that looks helpful outside of Sanchez and perhaps a couple others. I never doubt the Yankees deep pockets but they have issues to address….
Absent a significant overhaul, neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees are likely to advance to the postseason in 2015.
Agreed. Unless the Yankees offense wakes up.
Eh, few predicted the Sox even making the playoffs in 2013. This year few predicted the Royals. It’s rarely cut and dry at the beginning of a season.
Disagree. Yankees are only 4 games out of the playoffs, that isn’t significant overhaul. RS aren’t as far off I think either. They are a bit more murky, but if things go right I could see a postseason in them.
Even with highly regarded teams, the Red Sox have advanced to the postseason only once in the past five seasons (and were swept in the postseason that preceded those five years).
And yet they’re tied for second in WS wins in that time and have one of the most promising short-term futures of any franchise, and arguably long-term with Bogaerts, Betts, the catching situation, Pedroia, Castillo, Cecchini, and the pitching wealth, not to mention imports. They have a great farm and excellent financial flexibility – not to mention they’re a huge market team.
The Red Sox have lost a ton a talent since August 2012 with the departures of Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Felix Doubront, Cody Ross, Andrew Miller and Kevin Youkilis. The Sox have not sufficiently replaced the production of those 14 players as their depleted lineups caught up with them this year.
Gonzo, Beckett, Crawford, Youk and Ross were not part of the 2013 team that led the league in offense and won WS. I hardly think they hadn’t replaced that talent. They said no thanks to Drew not once but twice this year and I dont think they “lost” the talent of Doubront, Peavey, and Salty-all flawed players. Gomes is awesome but not nearly as good as Cespedes. Mookies making me say Jacoby who? and you forgot to mention we havent replaced Nick Punto. We did lose Lester and Miller-if only players like those could be bought in free agency
Absolutely right!!
The Red Sox need to overhaul their rotation, but they have the openings, money, and talent to make significant improvements there.
The AL East is up fro grabs. Baltimore won with an underwhelming team. The Rays have less of a chance of making it the the Sox or Yankees as I see it.
Murphy for Cespedes?
Neise+ for Cespedes?
1 year of a .300 obp player is worth 4 years of a mid rotation starter?
His on base percentage is absolutely all he brings to the table. It’s not like he can hit or anything.
Cespedes isn’t useless by any means, but Niese is locked up for 4 more years at $9MM per, no way that trade close to even.
I think the idea would be to lock Cespedes up for a bit after the trade. Plus, Neises trade value isn’t great based on his various health situations
Takes both sides to get an extension. Cespedes isn’t going to take a discount like that.
Very true. But I’m not sure it would have to be a huge discount. The Mets can shed enough salary moving Neise and Colon to pay Cespedes a fair salary after 2015. That pitching staff will stay pretty cheap for a few years.
But there is a huge discount on Niese contract compared to free agent prices. Why would they move that, to pay market prices?
Something needs to break for the Mets pitching staff. Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, Syndegaard (at some point)…then you have Colon, Neise, Gee and maybe Montero for one spot. With the dearth of starting pitching as compared to hitting, at some point the Mets are going to have to overpay for a hitter. Neise is the most valuble out of the three or four fighting for the fifth spot certainly. But the difference between Colon or Gee as your fifth starter is a lot less than Cespedes and Matt den Dekker. I would hate not having a lefty in the rotation, but lefty Stephen Matz is coming fast (maybe even next season) so that situation might remedy itself.
Niese really isn’t that good. He’s a 2-win player who isn’t much on ceiling. Cespedes has a 111 wRC+ and a bit more than 3.5 fWAR, with a career 115 wRC+ & he’s pushing 9 career WAR through three years and 1750~ PA. He’s no star, but he’s a reliable power-hitting outfielder. He’s played well since arriving in Boston, helping his case that he was worth the trade.
What are the Red Sox going to do with another 2B?
Mets fans are under the impression he can play third base. His actual play at third base is evidence to the contrary.
He can barely even play 2B, which is ‘his’ position.
Another one of those guys who the fans overvalue for some reason. He’s a descent hitter, but I can’t see playing him at a difficult position like third base.
He hits for a reasonable average, and he’s got a little pop, but that OBP is some ugly.
It’s better than Cespedes, Holt and similar to Pedroia. Which is probably why we’re so terrible this year. Napoli’s is .370 and he looked horrible this year. Murphy’s a complementary piece that doesn’t hit for enough power to play third base, and can’t actually field the position.
I actually think Napoli has played better than he did last year. wRC+’s are similar, 129 last year, 124 this year, but his BABIP has plummeted forty-six points. To only see a five point wRC+ drop with nearly a fifty point BABIP drop is impressive. He’s lost some power, but upped his walk rate and cut his strikeout rate. He’s still a good player and at least somewhat close to earning his 16 MM AAV keep.
All great things until you realize he’s hitting .170 with RISP. He’s earning his money sure, but he’s not doing what he’s being paid to do, which is drive in runs. They’re there, they’re waiting for him, and he’s striking out looking. Sure he’s cut down on strikeouts, because he’s shortened up his swing on two strikes. Great, that’s 40 fewer strikeouts per season and lots of meaningless singles. And 37 rbis with men in scoring position in comparison to the 73 he had last year. He carried the Red Sox through April last year. This year he has had noting. Granted he’s been dealing with a finger issue that hurt his power numbers, but as someone who has been watching him all season, he’s not even remotely the player he was last year.
It’s a pretty sad day when a Boston or New York writer has to play the “compared to them, we aren’t so bad” game. 83-78 Yankees and the 71-90 Red Sox. While I agree with MacPherson’s analysis, these types of ruminations are the ones you see with second division teams. Nothing to be proud of, regardless of which team you root for.
It is a bunch of hyperbole. This was supposed to be the season where all the Red Sox prospects were supposed to show up and prove to the world that the Red Sox aren’t really the Yankees. Nice try, I guess. Larry Lucchino is already on the record saying they will spend, spend, spend only one year after saying they don’t need to spend. Some of the young talent may *eventually* become useful – but it sure hasn’t yet.
Mookie Betts hasn’t been useful? A 21-year-old hitting for a 127 wRC+ over 209 PA with positive defensive value isn’t useful? What? Betts looks like a star-in-the-making. People who run up 127 wRC+ in their age-21 seasons don’t grow on trees. Of the 484 players to collect 200 PA in their age-21 seasons, Mookie Betts ranks 65th with that 127. Some other players to post between a 120 and 135 wRC+ in their age-21 years: David Wright (120), Greg Luzinski (120), Freddie Freeman (120), John Olerud (122), Joe DiMaggio (122), Eddie Murray (123), Harry Heilmann (123), Boog Powell (123), Tony Conigliaro (123), Johnny Bench (126), Richie Asburn (126), Joe Morgan (129), Miguel Cabrera (129), Justin Upton (130), Joe Medwick (131), Orlando Cepeda (131), Darryl Strawberry (131), Sherry Magee (133), Bob Horner (134), Stuffy McInnis (135) and Larry Doyle (135). Eight Hall of Famers, potentially two future Hall of Famers, someone with a .398 career OBP and 55+ WAR, a few MVPs, excellent old-timers who possibly should be Hall of Famers, two young star Braves, and a man whose career was ruined by drugs. Sounds like amazing company.
Betts may in fact end up being the player you expect, but most of the examples you cite above are for true star players who were regulars at the age of 21. 209 PA isn’t Harry Heilman’s 672, Joe Morgan’s 708, Freddie Freeman’s 635, Tony C’s 628, Luzinski’s 611, Joe D.s 669, etc.
The Red Sox have plenty of opportunity to build a powerhouse for next season. This offseason should be filled with a lot of excitement and conversation regarding the moves that they make and it will be interesting to see how they value their young core as they make moves for next season and beyond.