The Twins received brutal injury news this morning, as right-hander Pablo López has been diagnosed with tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament, general manager Jeremy Zoll announced to reporters (via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). He’s going for a second opinion, but season-ending surgery is on the table for López.
López felt some elbow discomfort following a recent bullpen session. The Twins sent him for imaging but framed that as a precautionary measure. The situation has obviously taken a dramatic turn for the worse. The vast majority of UCL tears require surgical repair, whether it’s an internal brace to repair/strengthen the existing ligament or a full reconstruction (“Tommy John”) procedure. Either situation would end López’s season before it begins.
The 29-year-old López missed considerable time with injury in 2025, making it into only 14 games and pitching 75 2/3 innings. A Grade 2 strain of López’s teres major muscle was the primary issue, but he finished the 2025 campaign on the shelf due to a forearm strain. He was excellent when on the field, working to a 2.74 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in 75 2/3 frames.
Now-former president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that López could have kept pitching through what the team described as a mild forearm strain had the club been in postseason contention. The veteran righty, who’ll be 30 early next month, had a normal offseason. It seems the UCL tear is a new injury that popped up in camp (although even if there was a quiet inkling of a UCL issue late last season, the timing would remain largely unchanged; López would’ve been expected to miss the 2026 season regardless).
López’s injury is a gut-punch to an already thin Twins roster. Starting pitching depth is an organizational strength, but many of the options in camp are well-regarded young hurlers who’ve not yet established themselves in the big leagues. The López injury puts righty Joe Ryan in line as Minnesota’s Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed by bounceback hopeful Bailey Ober (who was hobbled by a hip injury last year) and out-of-options righty Simeon Woods Richardson — a former top prospect who had a nice 14-start finish to his 2025 season after being optioned earlier in the year.
The Twins are deep in rotation upside beyond that trio. Right-handers David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley (acquired at the deadline for Griffin Jax) and Mick Abel (acquired at the deadline for Jhoan Duran) ranked as top-100 prospects prior to their big league debuts. Left-hander Connor Prielipp is currently on a handful of top-100 lists himself. Righty Andrew Morris (the Twins’ fourth-rounder in 2022) and southpaw Kendry Rojas (the headliner in the Twins’ trade of Louis Varland) are both well-regarded arms who rank among the top 15 or so of the team’s prospects and aren’t terribly far from MLB readiness.
Any of those younger arms could step up as a contributor in one of the final two spots in Minnesota’s rotation, but it’s unlikely any of the bunch can replace what a healthy López would bring to the table. The right-hander has a solid 3.61 ERA over his past 141 major league starts (795 innings) and has fanned 26% of opponents against a 6.3% walk rate in that time. López’s blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates with the Twins has led to slightly better marks from metrics like SIERA (3.41) and FIP (3.44). The 2023 All-Star hasn’t put everything together for a truly dominant ace-caliber season yet, but most fans and pundits believed him to be capable of doing so; he finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting during that ’23 campaign.
The Twins signed López to a four-year, $73.5MM extension shortly after acquiring him. That deal covered the 2024-27 seasons. López is signed for 2026 and 2027 at $21.75MM apiece, making him the highest-paid player on a stripped-down Twins roster that traded 11 players at last year’s deadline and has only made modest (at best) additions to the roster this winter. The Twins have signed Josh Bell, Victor Caratini and Taylor Rogers to big league deals and also added relievers Anthony Banda and Eric Orze via trade. They have a long list of recognizable veterans in camp on non-roster deals: Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Andrew Chafin, Liam Hendriks, Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman and Julian Merryweather.
Newly installed executive chair Tom Pohlad, who took over for his younger brother Joe earlier in the winter, has recently spoken openly about the Twins’ ability to further add to the payroll. He recently confirmed to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman that his club took a late run at Framber Valdez after the lefty lingered on the market and put forth a multi-year offer that was outbid by the division-favorite Tigers.
That certainly doesn’t mean the Twins will go out and make an external addition, but there are still some options if they hope to do so. Right-handers Lucas Giolito and former Twin Zack Littell are among the more notable names who do not yet have a home for the upcoming 2026 season. The Twins are deep in lefty-swinging outfielders and could try to strike up a deal with an Astros club that has long been trying to acquire just that, and there’s a handful of other veteran starters whose names have at least loosely surfaced in trade chatter throughout the winter (e.g. Brady Singer, Patrick Sandoval).
It’s not clear how high the newest Pohlad family member holding the executive chair position is willing to bump the team’s payroll, but the late run at Valdez at least suggests some openness. That should only be natural, however, as the Twins’ payroll is down more than $30MM from last season and more than $50MM from its 2023 peak, when they approached $160MM. There ought to be room to add someone like Giolito, Littell, Sandoval, etc. without breaking the bank. If the team doesn’t stay afloat in the standings through the first few months, that player could be marketed ahead of the trade deadline alongside other veteran trade options.
Absolutely terrible he is a great pitcher and great guy. I guess the only silver lining for us is we have a stockpile of starting pitching but it might not hurt to add some more minor league depth now.
Might be time to change your handle.
I can’t give up yet when Buxton and Ryan are dealt at the deadline then it changes.
To what?
Crappy break for a Twins fan.
Sign Littel before Giolito.
I wouldn’t mind that we seem to be reuniting with a lot of guys this winter so it makes sense.
Max Scherzer, Tyler Anderson?
Giolito / Littell more likely.
In what’s likely his last hurrah , I doubt Scherzer is interested in pitching for a 90 loss squad
Twins are already paying Lopez $21,750,000. I don’t expect Pohlads to shell out another 8 figures for a replacement.
How does insurance figure into a situation like this, if it does at all ? I would be interested to understand if the club is covered for his salary.
I am really sorry to hear this news, as I have been impressed by Pablo, both in his pitching and the way he carries himself.
Sounds like a less than slightly optimistic take
I guess it will be time for me to go to slightly optimistic Willians Astudillo fan nobody can hate la tortuga he is a franchise icon.
Rip off that bandaid
Leaning Pessimistic Twins Fan
stockpile of prospect SPs, none of these guys have taken that step and they’ve had a couple years
Great?
Yuck. Feel bad for Lopez and almost as bad for Twins fans.
Forearm strain in 2025, that was a red flag.
Pablo had a MRI last September after the forearm strain and it came back clean, i.e. no UCL tear. This was stated last September and reiterated today. They are different injuries.
Big rips
Sucks. Isn’t he only controlled this and next year, tough.
This is so bad for a Twins team that wants to compete. Not good news at all.
I don’t see how anybody in the division finishes ahead of Detroit.
I also don’t see how anyone else finishes ahead of the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, or Orioles in the Wild Card race.
Texas mayyyybe.
And the dark spirit that haunts them all will of course weigh in and have a say in it, the being known only by his initials ‘I L’.
2023 was a fluke.
Astros – As of right now I think the Royals will finish 2nd in the ALC and have a shot at the WC.
Seems you are conceding the division to the Jays
Nice New profile. They have a shot, but there are better teams.
So they won’t even be in the WC rAce?
They will, but just not the favorites.
Well, Skubal had his first TJS in 2017. Shelf life before another likely isn’t far away. Someone is going to pay him a record deal and pray he’s good after 2 seasons worth of rehab/load management limitations when it does arise.
@cws Only 13% of players who have TJS need a 2nd surgery, so it is not likely.
It’s low b/c the pitchers are retired by then due to age or not good enough to stick in MLB. That’s the funny spin on stats like that. If a pitcher goes under the knife rather young (eg. Lopez here) and they’re good enough following, those are the ones where teams pay big $ on a shelf life procedure.
Workhorses like Burnes or Cole won’t have a second TJS b/c it didn’t catch up to them until later to need their first (while already making the huge $). Gallen is a ‘never had it’ that lot of teams aren’t blind could easily/foreseeably put them on hook for 2yrs of setting its money on fire. OTOH-guys like Skubal and Cease are other category for had it young, pitching very well a long time after…..and then expiration hits when on a l-t deal.
It’s definitely on clubs to weigh-did pitcher “x” ever have it, and if yes how far back to assess when realistically they can reasonably expect a second is likely to occur.
That is absolutely false. Pitchers nearing retirement tend to retirement then go through the grueling recovery of TJS. You are just speculating on timeliness and outcomes adding zero to back your claims.
Yes it is on teams to do their due diligence to arm health and injury risk. These teams evaluate everything they can medically and Im sure have their analytics departments looking at trends to try and predict and prevent such injuries. They are not just giving out 8 and 9 figure deals with just blind hope.
So again no you have not provided anything to back the notion that anyone can reasonably expect a second TJS.
You argued against your low % cherry picked stat. Yes-pitchers who are no longer that good/near retirement aren’t going to get a 2nd….that drives the stat down of those needing/doing it again. That said, someone who has never had it or had it young/pitched a lot after you can bet will do it again to collect a ton of money remaining on a deal.
This isn’t some false binary player vs owner-FO personnel (esp’ly those in markets who can’t outspend mistakes) get fired over poor allocation of finite budgets a given owner sets.
Again you have provided nothing of substance to back your claims.
That was in no way an arbitrary or cherry picked #. The percentage of players who needed a 2nd TJS is quite specific and absolutely relevant to the discussion.
And FYI the average career length of a MLB pitcher 2.7-4 yrs. The average # of seasons added to one’s career is 3.9-4.9 yrs. That in no way aligns with your claim, in fact it tells the opposite that most players who get TJS will lengthen above and beyond the average length of a career.
Since the surgeries inception in 1974 only 151 players have had 2 TJS. It is in no way a reasonable likely outcome. It is in fact rare.
That’s awful! Hope for a fast recovery. Now I really wish they had traded him to the Mets!/s
Always hate to see this. Hopefully he heals up in time for whatever number of games are in 27 (if any).
Hoping for a successful recovery. Curious if his UCL damage showed in any medical reports and contributed to him not being traded this offseason.
I would think if they found this damage earlier he would have had surgery way earlier than now.
Gleeman said his end of the year scan was clean
Dude went from possibly repairing UCL tears to getting one himself. Hopefully he’s back by August of 2027.
Damn, I was almost hopeful, not so much now.
And a season and a half goes down the drain for Pablo Lopez.
Twins are in for a long rebuild…
Highly doubt the entire 2027 season is cancelled
That’s why I said “a season and a half”.
Also the one after will be a low pay 1 year show me deal
Sheeeeeesh.
Opportunity lost to trade him at the deadline’s, retool/rebuild will take huge hit.
Going to be an even longer year most likely.
At least they’ve made a bunch of minor league signings again. Worst owners in baseball. And thats saying a mouthful.
Worse than Reinsdorf?
Not as bad as JR but still bad in most aspects.
There’s a who’s who club of crappy owners for sure. The living Pohlad’s aren’t baseball people. At least Carl had a reasonable excuse. These clowns have never made the needed moves to put the team over the top. Offseason or trade deadline. They always have some sort of sales pitch for how the moves they do make. They should lower the ask, sell the team and by the video game and run their fairytale franchise on that.
Your owner (Tom Pohlad) needed to listen to Falvey who started the sell-off at the deadline. His about face just doesn’t make sense after they started down that road. There are a LOT of young Twins players/prospects who I really like and think they could turn things around with in 2-3 years if they ship out guys like Buxton and Lopez…that last ship has sailed! Ryan I can see keeping and I have always liked Bradley. Annoying when owners act like Arte Moreno.
I’m gonna go hurl myself off a roof now.
Maybe go just halfway, “I’m gonna go hurl?”
No need to do that. Do we need to call 988 for you?
It was purely out of the frustration of an average Twins fan. All good here.
Well, once the elbow soreness popped up, it was an ominous sign. that sucks Twins fans….
Spend on Gio.
How many teams came close to acquiring him in trade? I bet a few did, what with his hi salary and subsequent low need to give away prospects
Now they will make Ryan available
Likely would’ve been scared away by his medicals if they had made it that far.
And so much for ” we can just see what happens and make the trade at the deadline”.
His elbow probably hurt at the end of last season, and if so, he cost himself 4 months by not doing anything about it in October.
The arms race is truly a war of attrition. Easier said than done but guys have to reevaluate how they do things because simply being a ticking timebomb ain’t it. Maybe they pick up Giolito to fill the gap for a year.
This is tough news for Lopez and Twins fans. Hate to see a guy like this go down. Here’s to a faster than expected recovery!
So is that like 30% our of 2025 payroll going to Lopez to not pitch and Correa to play for the Astros?
I hate to see a player get hurt. I’m glad the Cubs didn’t trade for him. The twins wanted a Kings random.
Wishing and hoping for a speedy recovery for Pablo.
It’s the Dodgers’ fault.
No it’s not.
What gave it away?
Lopez had no connection to the Dodgers
You’re very bright.
Get it fixed and heal up, PL…may ya come back ready to take the hill!
Yikes, first off, speedy recovery to the guy. That’s terrible after dealing with issues last year and throughout parts of his career. Brilliant pitcher when healthy.
But you have ask if this shouldn’t have been another team’s worry? It’s still a head scratcher that the Twins held onto him and Joe Ryan in some odd attempt at competing with zero real reinforcements and that bullpen fire sale at the deadline. Now there’s no way to tell if he could have been traded at all, he did have elbow soreness already and something may have come up in physicals? but maybe not since he got through spring training physicals.
Not sure how the team looks after this, there was already less than zero margin for error…
I assumed Lopez’s medicals were not good and they were hoping that after his off time that they could market him after he showed he was healthy.
He obviously was not. Ryan should’ve been shopped around already. He’d land a big package and the team is rebuilding whether or not they want to admit it.
The pitching coach who figures out how to protect pitchers from catastrophic arm injury will deserve immediate entry into the hall of fame and the thanks of a grateful nation. We need to stop these injuries entirely.
Bubble wrap and gorilla tape. Bam!
Giolito makes a lot of sense, but will Pohlstad buck up? Boston, KC, Arizona & Padres have excess arms to deal…
Arizona doesn’t have enough good starters????? KC and Boston maybe.
It’s time for the Twins to make a SP trade.
Don’t confuse quantity with quality. Steve says they are “deep in rotation upside”; however, if we are talking about 2026, how many of those pitchers are ready to shine?
Meanwhile, I have always respected Lopez and enjoyed watching him whenever I’ve had the chance. So either they punt the season, as the Tigers appear to be in position to take the division anyway, or they go out and make a deal. Either way, it’s a brutal blow.
They punted this season at the last trade deadline
They were never going to finish higher than 3rd this year and I’m not trying to slam them as a Tigers fan. Tom Pohlad screwed it up. Falvey starts a rebuild and he stops it halfway through and wants to compete after trading off half the pitching staff? Not realistic at all.
So right now, it looks like…
Mariners/Astros and Blue Jays/Yankees/Red Sox get byes, with Mariners being the favorite for the West and Jays and Yankees pretty much tied, but I’m giving the Blue Jays because they made the World Series. The Tigers win the Central.
Let’s just say Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox all make it, that is your six playoff teams. Out of the remainder, here’s who are the leading favorites.
1. O’s
2. Guardians
3. Rangers
4. Royals
5. A’s
6. Rays
7. Angels
8. White Sox
9. Twins
Predicting them for dead last in the American League.
White Sox team is really bad but bottom 3 clubs are definitely Angels, WSox, Twins in whatever order.
Rangers
Royals
Guards
Orioles
Athletics
Rays
The rest
I don’t think Alonso and bassit improve the orioles that much. They’re still dreaming on all the prospects to work out
The Guardians have a bad roster. They typically win more games than they should but that club is my pick to drop to 75-80 wins.
2022: 32 starts 180 IP
2023: 32 starts 194 IP
2024: 32 starts 185 IP
in today’s game a 3-year run like that catches up to you. seems like a great guy hope he comes back strong
Littell is probably more in the Twins price range than Giolito but i could see the Twins signing either. Tyler Anderson makes sense too as the Twins rotation is all right handed
They’ve got a lot of warm bodies available already. Why not give them a chance? It’s not like the Twins are playoff bound anyway
Great to see all these injuries and we’re not even near March. These guys could disable themselves just walking out the front door of their house. I’ve never seen disasters pile up for anybody like they do for baseball players.
Should have traded him when they had the chance. i’m glad the yankees didn’t get him
Hate to see these injuries but just shows why it’s dangerous to part w everyday players and prospects for these pitchers.
Losing the teams ace in mid-February is the worst for a fan base that’s still annoyed at the trade deadline last year. I’d rather see them go with the young arms instead of signing a fading starter after ST has already started. Either way, it’ll be tough to stay out of the basement in the standings. Even with the ChiSox being there.
Oh yeah they should ride with the guys they’ve got. No sense in bringing in a AAAA guy to fill unless all the youngens fail
Best wishes for a strong recovery, Pablo Lopez, even though that will probably be 2028 and you are pitching for another team by the time you fully recover. You are a GREAT GUY, and it is sad that you didn’t get to do more whie with the Twins. Get healthy. Enjoy time with your family. Continue to have a great life.
That is a 1/5 payroll hit to the Twins, combined with the $10m they are paying for Correa to play in Houston. For a tam that didn’t want to spend $100m, this is aa disaster. They still will pay Lopez for some part of 2027. He would be young enough to get offered a qualifying offer, and the Twins may just be satisfied with a draft pick in the end.
Horrible time to be a Twins fan.
Attendance under a million this year?
See you in 2028.
Tom Pohlad offered the Second Opionion on Lopez.
Pohlad stated, “He’s just fine and will pitch all season long”.
He further stated, “The Twins are serious contenders for the American League Central Division Championship; we will win it in a walk.” “Start ordering your 2026 Play-off and World Series Tickets NOW !!” “Be sure to lock down your 2026 Season Tickets now; they’re going fast.”
By not moving Lopez when he had the chance, Tom just made a 43.5MM mistake. It not only will cost the financially struggling team that much over the next two years WITHOUT receiving much if any on field contribution from the player for the duration of his contract but has also wiped out ANY trade valuw Lopez may have had.
Joe is OUT, Tom SCREWED UP, = Time to bring in a DIFFERENT POHLAD.
TOO many right handed 12 ounce curls during the off season??
SANDOVAL, NOAH Song & Witherspoon for Joe Ryan.
We’ll pretend Noah Song is a prospect and the Twins would have any interest in a rental.