Pablo López Diagnosed With UCL Tear

The Twins received brutal injury news this morning, as right-hander Pablo López has been diagnosed with tearing in his right elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament, general manager Jeremy Zoll announced to reporters (via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). He’s going for a second opinion, but season-ending surgery is on the table for López.

López felt some elbow discomfort following a recent bullpen session. The Twins sent him for imaging but framed that as a precautionary measure. The situation has obviously taken a dramatic turn for the worse. The vast majority of UCL tears require surgical repair, whether it’s an internal brace to repair/strengthen the existing ligament or a full reconstruction (“Tommy John”) procedure. Either situation would end López’s season before it begins.

The 29-year-old López missed considerable time with injury in 2025, making it into only 14 games and pitching 75 2/3 innings. A Grade 2 strain of López’s teres major muscle was the primary issue, but he finished the 2025 campaign on the shelf due to a forearm strain. He was excellent when on the field, working to a 2.74 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in 75 2/3 frames.

Now-former president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that López could have kept pitching through what the team described as a mild forearm strain had the club been in postseason contention. The veteran righty, who’ll be 30 early next month, had a normal offseason. It seems the UCL tear is a new injury that popped up in camp (although even if there was a quiet inkling of a UCL issue late last season, the timing would remain largely unchanged; López would’ve been expected to miss the 2026 season regardless).

López’s injury is a gut-punch to an already thin Twins roster. Starting pitching depth is an organizational strength, but many of the options in camp are well-regarded young hurlers who’ve not yet established themselves in the big leagues. The López injury puts righty Joe Ryan in line as Minnesota’s Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed by bounceback hopeful Bailey Ober (who was hobbled by a hip injury last year) and out-of-options righty Simeon Woods Richardson — a former top prospect who had a nice 14-start finish to his 2025 season after being optioned earlier in the year.

The Twins are deep in rotation upside beyond that trio. Right-handers David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley (acquired at the deadline for Griffin Jax) and Mick Abel (acquired at the deadline for Jhoan Duran) ranked as top-100 prospects prior to their big league debuts. Left-hander Connor Prielipp is currently on a handful of top-100 lists himself. Righty Andrew Morris (the Twins’ fourth-rounder in 2022) and southpaw Kendry Rojas (the headliner in the Twins’ trade of Louis Varland) are both well-regarded arms who rank among the top 15 or so of the team’s prospects and aren’t terribly far from MLB readiness.

Any of those younger arms could step up as a contributor in one of the final two spots in Minnesota’s rotation, but it’s unlikely any of the bunch can replace what a healthy López would bring to the table. The right-hander has a solid 3.61 ERA over his past 141 major league starts (795 innings) and has fanned 26% of opponents against a 6.3% walk rate in that time. López’s blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates with the Twins has led to slightly better marks from metrics like SIERA (3.41) and FIP (3.44). The 2023 All-Star hasn’t put everything together for a truly dominant ace-caliber season yet, but most fans and pundits believed him to be capable of doing so; he finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting during that ’23 campaign.

The Twins signed López to a four-year, $73.5MM extension shortly after acquiring him. That deal covered the 2024-27 seasons. López is signed for 2026 and 2027 at $21.75MM apiece, making him the highest-paid player on a stripped-down Twins roster that traded 11 players at last year’s deadline and has only made modest (at best) additions to the roster this winter. The Twins have signed Josh Bell, Victor Caratini and Taylor Rogers to big league deals and also added relievers Anthony Banda and Eric Orze via trade. They have a long list of recognizable veterans in camp on non-roster deals: Gio Urshela, Orlando Arcia, Andrew Chafin, Liam Hendriks, Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman and Julian Merryweather.

Newly installed executive chair Tom Pohlad, who took over for his younger brother Joe earlier in the winter, has recently spoken openly about the Twins’ ability to further add to the payroll. He recently confirmed to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman that his club took a late run at Framber Valdez after the lefty lingered on the market and put forth a multi-year offer that was outbid by the division-favorite Tigers.

That certainly doesn’t mean the Twins will go out and make an external addition, but there are still some options if they hope to do so. Right-handers Lucas Giolito and former Twin Zack Littell are among the more notable names who do not yet have a home for the upcoming 2026 season. The Twins are deep in lefty-swinging outfielders and could try to strike up a deal with an Astros club that has long been trying to acquire just that, and there’s a handful of other veteran starters whose names have at least loosely surfaced in trade chatter throughout the winter (e.g. Brady Singer, Patrick Sandoval).

It’s not clear how high the newest Pohlad family member holding the executive chair position is willing to bump the team’s payroll, but the late run at Valdez at least suggests some openness. That should only be natural, however, as the Twins’ payroll is down more than $30MM from last season and more than $50MM from its 2023 peak, when they approached $160MM. There ought to be room to add someone like Giolito, Littell, Sandoval, etc. without breaking the bank. If the team doesn’t stay afloat in the standings through the first few months, that player could be marketed ahead of the trade deadline alongside other veteran trade options.