The Rays are compiling a list of managerial candidates and could announce a formalized list by the end of the week, writes Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune. The team’s goal is to have a new skipper in place by Thanksgiving, according to Mooney, who also notes that the Rays are taking the unusual step of asking their players on the qualities they would like in a new manager. “We don’t really bother ourselves with what is the norm,” Silverman explained. “We do what we think is right for our ballclub. They’re an important voice into who leads our clubhouse.”
More from the AL East…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds to the recent Adam Lind trade speculation by writing that those looking to guess the first significant trade of the offseason would be wise to bet on the Blue Jays moving Lind. There are “strong indicators” that the Jays would like to reallocate the funds that are dedicated to Lind, so the team could very well exercise his $7.5MM club option and deal him. Sherman lists the Mariners and Athletics as potential fits, noting how well his platoon role fits the A’s model.
- Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that he doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Lind given the team’s bulk of left-handed bats. While I agree that it’s an imperfect fit, Lind strikes me as a reasonable fit there if the club can find a right-handed bat to pair with him at DH.
- In his latest Yankees Inbox, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes that the team’s likely preference would be to retain David Robertson for one more season before handing the ninth inning over to Dellin Betances. That, of course, makes a qualifying offer likely, though I can’t envision any scenario where Robertson would accept the offer. Hoch also writes that Ichiro Suzuki will be seeking more at-bats than the Yankees have to give, even in a part-time role. Hoch wonders if he’d be a fit for an NL club who could use him off the bench and in the late innings while giving him occasional starts in the outfield as well.
I don’t think Ichiro would get 300+ AB’s as an NL bench player.
He might if he goes to an injury prone team such as the 2014 Yankees. Not a sure thing, but it’s probably his best shot to get to 3000. An NL team at least gives him a pinch hit at bat in most games.
San Diego Padres?
Might be one of his better bets, although they may prefer to give Renfroe, Liriano and Fuentes a shot rather than him when someone goes down.
True but he will get pinch hit at bats and he can cover the day-to-day injuries and serve as a fourth outfielder, and if one of there starting 3 go down long term then Renfroe and the others can come up and show what they can do
I agree that he could do that, although I believe he might be looking for a team that might have to use him a lot out of necessity if something happens to one of their starters. Strangely enough, and if they don’t make any moves for an outfielder, the Mariners might be a good fit considering their lack of upper minor league outfield depth. I doubt that would happen, though.
The Mets might be a better fit, actually.
Think of Mark Kotsay for them a few years ago, more of a pinch hitter fill in and a good clubhouse add
I’m not saying that they couldn’t use him for that purpose, but considering he needs 156 hits, probably in 2 seasons, he might not get there by going that route. Kotsay didn’t get all that many at bats, and he could also play first base on top of the outfield.
Ichiro essentially needs a full season at this point in his career. Maybe he can get lucky and find a Juan Pierre opportunity where a team has a need, but doesn’t want to spend a lot, and can carry lower offensive production.
Gotta figure Ichiro is shooting for 3000 hits. 156 gets the job done. He’d need a full season of full-time play to get that at this stage of his career. I can’t see any other reason to hold on. He’s pretty much an average hitter who plays average defense.
Agreed, but also he fits what was the prototype for a no.2 hitter, meaning get the runner over, handles the bat well, doesn’t strike out. Somewhere in baseball a team could still use that type of guy on a regular basis.
Of his 102 hits last season 86 were singles. He had an OPS+ of 89. I don’t think there are many teams that would want a batter that anemic hitting out of the number two spot. He’s once fit the prototype for a number two hitter. He’s probably an 8 or 9 now.
I agree with your reasoning but only in the sense that you base it on the current no 2 hitter paradigm. A singles hitter who can handle the bat used to be the prototype no 2 hitter; that was my point.
I think Robertson would be nuts to skip out on a qualifying offer. Very few teams have the luxury of blowing $14+ mil a year on a closer, let alone be willing to give up a draft pick in addition to paying that kind of money. If he gets a QO and doesn’t take it he could be spending a long winter hoping for a contract – perhaps even waiting until after the draft.
He wouldn’t wait until after the draft. The Yankees would still offer him more money than any other team, and he’ll sign a slightly lower-value contract than if he had negotiated one in the first place. But no player is going to sit out a third of the season again.
tigers? who else would give up a pick/top cash for a closer like that?
Good point stonepie – the Tigers always seem willing to blow money and closer has been an issue for awhile for them. Not what I’d call a smart use of money if it is $14+ mil a year but an option. Cheaper might be to get Papelbon out of Philly and pay him $13 mil in 2015 and maybe another $13 in 2016 but getting Philly to cover some of that.
No way the Tigers would do this. If they are going to overspend, Miller is a much better choice without losing a draft pick.
Steve addressed this in his profile of Robertson. The Nationals have already done exactly this in signing Soriano two years ago. They could well punt their low first-rounder to add Robertson, esp. since they could be loaded up with picks in the 2016 draft if they lose a bunch of QO guys.
Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, maybe Dodgers … and then there’s always the wild card of talented young teams with minimal future obligations (White Sox & Astros being the ones with obvious bullpen openings).
No way the Tigers would do that.
Much easier to just sign Miller if they are going to overpay.
Personally, I think Ichiro would be a good fit in San Diego
Robertson might very well take the offer, if he’s comfortable with his talent level and his ability to sustain performance. There will be plenty of money for him the following year, and he might not even have to worry about the QO next year.
If he doesn’t have to worry about the QO next year that either means he signed an extension or something terribly went wrong with him.
I tend to figure this is Dave Martinez’s one real shot to manage. He was on everyone’s short list for interviews for a while then nothing. So if he;s going to be a a manager it will be with a club that knows him and a team that already likes him.
“though I can’t envision any scenario where Robertson would accept the offer”
You can’t? He’d be the highest paid relief pitcher in baseball if he accepted it (someone correct me if I’m wrong on that, maybe 2nd to Kimbrel). It would be very wise of him to accept it.
You don’t settle for one year when you are a dominant 29-year-old reliever, unless you have to, even if it means you have the highest single-season salary for a reliever.
After what happened with Santana, Drew, Morales and Cruz, I think players are going to start learning a lesson. $15+ million isn’t chump change, particularly for players who pitch about 60+ innings.
In my opinion, 1 year/$15 million >.2 year/$25 million or 3 year/$30 million.
Those are all mid-teir players that had no business turning down the QO when they’d be lucky to even get that AAV on the open market, especially Drew.
But 1/$15 (or something close enough to it) will still be on the table for Robertson. That’s why you don’t take it at the first chance. There’s basically no downside to testing the market.
And I don’t agree necessarily on that assessment of value, though individual players and teams will have their own preferences, of course. Generally, teams will pay a premium for shorter deals and players will take a discount for longer deals. They are not irrational actors.
Anyway, 3/$30 would be a disappointing result for Robertson. I think he’ll do better.
Yeah…it’s more about total guaranteed dollars than it is about maxing out the one year earnings. His arm could explode at any second.
“Hoch wonders if he’d be a fit for an NL club who could use him off the
bench and in the late innings while giving him occasional starts in the
outfield as well.”
You mean…..like he pretty much did with the Yankees last year? Only reason he became more of a starter was because of Beltran’s injury. I don’t understand how this scenario can’t or wouldn’t work just as well as an AL club as it would with an NL club.
I think the idea is that NL clubs use the bench more, which would result in more playing time.
I doubt Ichiro would be put in as a pinch hitter though. More so of a defensive replacement
For the record, 6 out of the top 7 clubs in baseball with the most PA by OFers were in the American League. On the contrary, 5 out of the top 6 clubs in baseball with the most Games Played by OFers were in the Naitonal League
I don’t watch National League baseball really, but those stats probably tell you that OFers come in as defensive replacements way more than they come in for AB in the NL. Therefore I don’t see how the latter part in the stats above tells me Ichiro will be getting more AB’s in the NL.
Not a great sign if the Jays need to reallocate the funds. How is $7.5mm for one of the best hitters in ML against RHP not a good use of funds? Just pony up a little more to get that 2B.
A story a few years back had Ichiro quoted as saying he wanted to become a knuckleballer once he was 40. Any updates on that? Is he just messing with all of us? That would be pretty great and I figure he’s just weird enough for it to possibly be true…
If I’m the Jays, I don’t trade Lind unless I get something significant in return, his 7.5 million dollar salary is completely fine for the production that he brings and, for the cost of players these days, this extra 7.5 million won’t net you much.
How much less should Miller get?
Other than the fact he has never closed, Miller seems to be every bit the pitcher that Robertson is… and he is likely to NOT get a QO.
He can’t get a QO b/c he was traded.
Issue there is his shallower track record. I think his market will overlap a bit with Robertson’s, but that they will mostly have appeal to different teams (or to the same teams but for somewhat different reasons).
But yeah, he was filthy this year and will draw wide interest. Tim predicted he’d land 4/$32MM.
Forgot about that trade negating the QO.
As a Tigers fan, I would rather have Miller. I heard him interviewed on MLB Network Radio yesterday. Seemed perfectly happy pitching ANY inning. Understands that the most crucial outs of game could be earlier than the 9th inning. He did not insist on being a closer for his ego’s sake.
Ideally Nathan is a good closer in 2015 and Miller is the 8th inning guy. In years 2-4, Miller could then be the closer. If Nathan fails, the Miller steps in immediately. Good back up insurance policy AND a long term solution at closer.
I thought I was the one of the only people who thinks Robertson won’t accept a QO.
Most are arguing whether or not he Should accept it. Whether or not he Does is another story. There are positives and negatives for him accepting and declining it (assuming he got one and I think he will).
A reliever more than anyone should explore getting a multi-year deal vs a one year offer.
And a reliever more than anyone should be the lowest paid player(s) in baseball, if not 2nd lowest to bench players.
I would love to see Ichiro in Atlanta. One of my all time favorite players. Assuming we finally bite the bullet and cut BJ or make him the world’s most luxurious pinch runner.
The problem is Ichiro needs 2 years to get to 3000 hits this point. That is a big commitment for a 41 year old.
Well, it’s not terribly likely, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that he can do it in 1, if he had a full time role and had a decent year. Plus I think he could be had on the cheap. Maybe a 1 year with an option or something?
Could Ichiro be in an “Old Guy platoon” with Torii Hunter?
Hunter is a better hitter now. Ichiro is still considered an average RF on defense. Both would be excellent bench pieces when not in the starting lineup.
Neither has a title and Detroit is still a contender.
Give them both identical 1 year / $5MM contracts?
I’m not on board with the Mariners trading for Lind at all. First of all, his power completely disappeared this year, not exactly the best trait for a DH. Second, he is totally useless against LHP (lifetime .212/.257/.331 slash line against LHP), so the team would have to get a right-handed hitter to complement Lind, so now you have 2 players for one spot. Not an ideal bench composition when you’re carrying 12 pitchers. Third, there are better options on the free agent market that you wouldn’t have to give up talent for. If the M’s are going to trade away someone like Miller or Taylor and/or a piece of the bullpen, there are far more attractive options than Lind. I also don’t want to see the M’s pursue Billy Butler in free agency (the Royals should turn down his option and put him on the market); another DH whose power has gone away. Victor Martinez would be the #1 target here, and believe it or not, I would rather have Michael Morse come back to Seattle and DH than have either Butler or Lind. Morse has “ballpark proof” power when healthy, and DH’ing can certainly help keep him off the DL more often.
I see Ichiro as a fit in Atlanta. Veteran guy who knows a thing or two about hitting. The Braves lack a veteran guy and he could be one of those guys.
Have to agree. Not that he hasn’t made a lot of money previously (by our standards), but a QO would more than double his career earnings. I would have to think that he would want the immediate retirement pillow with the likelihood that he is in the same position for a contract next year.
Agreed. I can’t imagine a scenario where he doesn’t take a QO.
I agree with Steve on this one, very strongly in fact.
Here’s the thing: is there any scenario in which he falls significantly short of 1/$15.3 on the open market? If not, why not test it out?
He doesn’t need to take the Drew/Morales route. And he isn’t Drew/Morales; he is an impact reliever and the best available player at his position by a fair sight. And anyway, those guys could have had single year and multi year deals that were better than what they got, but chose a risky strategy. (Note also that they still got paid at approximately the QO-rate for the portion of the season they were active.)
Why try again next year? He’s young, outstanding, coming off a very nice stretch, and facing no competition at the very top of the market.
I agree. Teams don’t like to give up a 1st round pick for 60 IP. When they do they value the pick at about 8 million which cuts his AAV about 3 million, and perhaps more if he does not have enough teams bidding on his services .
His best bet is take the QO, then try and parlay that into a multi-year deal with the Yankees at a slightly lower AAV, say 3/39 or 4/48. Failing that, the Yankees are unlikely to want a 15 million closer on their budget with Arod back on the books, so they would likely deal him at the trade deadline, which will make him ineligible for a QO and boosts his chances for a better deal after 2015.
The Wild Card here is the Red Sox who have a protected pick and could be prepared to offer him a multi-year deal if they plan to move on from Koji. Robertson could only know this for sure if there has been tampering though.
Only scenario I can think of would be if he is expecting a multi-year deal somewhere, but even if that was the case, I’d say if he got a multi-year deal he’d probably get no more than $12 mil a year. I’d take 1 year/$15 mil over 2 year/$25 mil.
Rafael Soriano turned down a QO and got 2/28 (albeit heavily deferred).
Robertson is much better and much younger.
Really, it’s as simple as that.
Did you mean “the best free agent at his position by a fair sight”?
I kind of agree with you, but here’s a scenario: Robertson takes the QO and essentially gambles on his own performance, ie that he’s going to pitch well enough to earn a QO next year as well. I’d assume next year’s is something like $16.5MM, so if he pitches well in 2015, he could basically get a two year, $32MM deal, no? Or, he could pocket this year’s QO and then try again next year. He’s only 29, and his 2014 campaign was a little less valuable than his usual lofty stuff.
I did, yes. I’ll edit it.
AAV matters, of course, but I think you generally have to prefer total guarantee when you are hitting FA on a strong walk year, especially for a reliever.
Look, this is a world in which Scott Feldman lands 3/$30MM and aging, one-dimensional sluggers get $6-7MM guarantees on make-good deals. And Robertson fits a niche that those kinds of players don’t: weapon for a contender that doesn’t have many holes.
Yes, he’s a bit of a luxury item, but I’d be very surprised if he lands at less than 3/$36 (with a QO attached). To me, it’s an easy call to pursue that, with the easy fallback of taking QO-type money on a one-year deal if things really fall apart.
Why not Papelbon? Same reason, basically, as why not any of the other pretty good, older guys out there. He isn’t as good, he isn’t as young. And with his vesting option, he is likely a 2/$26MM guy.
(Side note: that isn’t a drastic overpay at this point, esp. b/c the vesting provision does provide some injury protection.)
“Why not trade for Papelbon then? Philly wants to get rid of him.”
Because everyone knows RAJ’s asking prices are ridiculous. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t he have a NTC as well?
Drew, Cruz, Morales and Santana all turned it down and setteled for the same amount (Santana, Drew at a pro-rated one) or less (Cruz, Morales)
No these guys were not the top players at their position in the FA market, but I still wouldn’t be shocked to see 1 – Robertson accept the offer, and 2 – If he got one and rejected it, no team pays him what he wants.
One thing to remember is that Robertson literally fits with any team in baseball. That is not true of the guys you mention.
But anyway, I can’t imagine he won’t have a substantial pillow contract waiting for him if the multi-year market collapses. Really, Cruz is the only one who landed way under the QO, and Tim Dierkes will tell you he thinks Cruz’s overly aggressive asking price caused him to miss opportunities.
So where’s the downside?
Downside is the draft pick loss, paying a closer (of course a very good closer) A Lot of $, and I don’t know how much you have seen him pitch, but Robertson tends to throw A Lot of pitches in each appearance and hardly ever has a 1-2-3 inning.
I guess maybe cause as a Yankee fan we were spoiled to see Mo and his career WHIP of exactly 1.00 (3rd all time) do it easy, that we weren’t used to much drama in the 9th inning.
Robertson fits with any team in baseball? I would be quite surprised if any of these teams are in the market for a relief pitcher at 3/30, which you’ve said you would be surprised if Robertson got that little: Washington, Philadelphia, Florida, Atlanta, New York (NL), Milwaukee, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Los Angeles (NL), San Francisco, Colorado, Arizona, Boston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Oakland, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota. Detroit, Chicago (NL & AL), Texas, Houston, and New York (AL) are the five realistic possibilities. I think Detroit is more likely to target Uehara and/or Miller, I don’t believe Theo or Luhnow will sign a big-money closer, as both are sabermetricians, and from a value standpoint, it stands as unlikely D-Rob will earn his keep. Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think the current Yankees regime will bid against itself or spent errantly. They’ve seemed to have given Cashman more control, and he’s actually fiscally responsible. So unless Texas will, I can’t see a single team in the bidding. I really feel you guys are overrating Robertson, overrating team thinking on closers, and missing the lesson teams have learned about relievers. 52 MM for Robertson, by the way, I believe would be the most expensive contract for a closer in MLB history. It’s wishful thinking for Robertson’s camp.
I agree with you to an extent, in that some teams would prefer a shorter commitment even if it is attached to an older arm. But I don’t see it really denting Robertson’s market too much — he’s on a different plane right now with K rate and such.
I mean downside for Robertson. What’s his worst case scenario if he rejects the QO? What’s his likely fallback position?
I’d say 1/$12MM is an absolute floor if things just went haywire. That’s just above Joe Nathan’s and Brian Wilson’s two-year guarantee.
More likely, his fallback is a three-year deal at $10-12MM AAV.
Sure, you can roll the dice and try to draw a QO every year, but you’re always going to take a slight discount to get the multi-year guarantee.
And Robertson’s likely contract range and upside scenarios are well above that.
“What’s his worst case scenario if he rejects the QO?”
Possibly the same downside as Drew, Morales, Cruz and Santana. Keyword I said is Possibly though. I don’t think any team is going to be in a rush to sign him (this is assuming he got a QO and rejected it). Who knows though, this is baseball.
1/12? I think his floor is a lot lower than that. If nobody needs an expensive reliever and has internal options – relievers can be a commodity sometimes – then Robertson might be out of luck. It’s entirely possible teams will pounce on cheaper options – Miller, Uehara, Soriano, etc. – and leave D-Rob out there.
Looking past ERA — he gave up a few extra dingers — it was one of his best seasons. 13.4 K/9, 2.68 FIP, career-low 2.13 xFIP, career-low 1.88 SIERA.
Well, I see him as having a better downside scenario than those guys, and a lower likelihood of having to fall back to it. Just no reason not to risk at most a few million dollars over one year to test the market.
Honestly, I really don’t understand at all the idea that he would consider taking the QO. Risk: settle for, I don’t know, 1/$12 if the sky falls. Reward: 4/$60 upside, 4/~$50 perhaps likely, 3/$36 reasonable stopping point if market slides.
You’re going to settle for 1/$15 with this math? I sure as heck wouldn’t. But we shall see.
Good points. I was only looking at B-ref and saw his highest FIP in five years and marginally highest walk rate in four. Didn’t see the others.
As charged up as I am to argue over this one, I think we’ve probably covered it too much for the podcast at this point (talked about it on first episode). And I don’t think we’re ready to do short segments with commenters (however distinguished!). But if you have any burning arguments/questions, you can email an audio clip to mlbtrpodcast at gmail and we’ll consider a reader mailbag type thing. (No promises at this point.)
I think the idea that relievers are bad investments has been overplayed somewhat. It is wise to keep an eye on their real value and focus on it on a go-forward basis, I agree with that. But Robertson has still been a 1.5-2.5 WAR pitcher, even before you add some value for the fact that he can pitch high leverage innings and could have added value in the postseason (increased innings).
When I say he fits with any team in baseball, I’m not talking about cost, I just mean that he would easily upgrade any roster. (He could set up for Kimbrel, right?) Replace your worst reliever with Robertson. There are plenty of teams for whom guys like Drew or Morales would not have represented such a significant upgrade. This expands Robertson’s market, and raises his floor.
This isn’t about landing a big-time closer to me. It’s about a guy getting paid for his skills.
The A’s took Jim Johnson at $10MM last year. Top-notch relievers are not a commodity, not yet anyway (guess we’ll see what the fleet of 100+mph arms means for the game).
BTW I saw another comment you left (probably caught in moderation due to length) about me shrugging off the deferred dollars in Soriano’s contract. Really? I’m one of the few people who still finds it necessary to mention this, precisely b/c I believe in its importance. I just don’t want to play around with financial mechanisms to assign a present value to it.