In the latest sign of the game’s financial health, Maury Brown writes for Forbes that local baseball broadcasts have generally dominated prime-time television viewership.
Here’s the latest out of the American League:
- Soon-to-be free agent Max Scherzer of the Tigers reportedly passed on the chance to ink a six-year, $144MM extension with the Tigers, and that decision could hurt him in spite of his strong performance, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The current market features top-end trade options, plenty of mid-tier free agents, and a generally depressed offensive environment, Sherman notes.
- Though the Yankees have not been tied strongly to high-end starting pitching, Scherzer could remain a highly appealing option, opines Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. If New York decides to make a splashy acquisition, Martino says the odds are it will be Scherzer.
- The Red Sox will be looking for a new hitting coach, as incumbent Greg Colbrunn will not return, as the team announced today. The 45-year-old, who was in his second season on the job, missed a stretch of time over the summer after suffering a brain hemorrhage.
Considering all teams want to improve their pitching staff and Max just put up a very fine SO9 of 10.9 mixed with 2.6BB9 and a very healthy looking FIP of 2.85. I think it’s fairly reasonable to expect Scherzer to top $144M/6yrs.
I can see someone giving him 165M/6yrs with the majority of the contract either being front-loaded or back-loaded depending on however they decide to write it up with the Scott Boras special of a opt-out clause somewhere in it. For teams looking to win now, Max Scherzer is the perfect candidate to give your team that top of the rotation ace that gives you loads of quality starts and chances to win a lot of games.
I doubt it happens because honestly it rarely happens in today’s market. But a front loaded deal would make sense for a team and him. Give him $165+ for 6 years with most of the money coming over the first 4 years. That way. Once he starts being bad he can be released without the team being hurt too badly.
Preciously, getting $165M front-loaded or back-loaded is no different if you can afford it. He’s still getting paid the money no matter what, taking a front-loaded deal means he might actually live up to the value of say a $30M annually in the first 4 years of the deal if he posts something close to 6.0WAR like he is right now. Then when he regresses like most strikeout pitchers in his mid 30’s, he won’t be crippling the franchise with an immovable contract.
“Preciously, getting $165M front-loaded or back-loaded is no different if you can afford it.”
IMO, I think front loaded is a better option because he could become tradable in the latter years where many teams might be able to afford him (ex. he makes $35-$40 million over the final 2 years as opposed to say $60-$65 million)
I’m sure in the future the Angels are going to be kicking themselves that Pujols will be making $30+ million from ages 39-42.
Actually it’s quite different. The present value of these large contracts can be reduced quite a bit by backloading the deals.
I meant for the guy receiving the contract there’s no difference. He’s still getting the money over the course of the deal. Unless he plans on using all that money upfront to buy an island in the near future, I’m sure he doesn’t care how he gets paid.
I would argue that they should care. My assumption is that they don’t care all that much, or know, and that their advisors or agents have an interest in getting the largest contract regardless of when the payments are being made. This is so they can raise the bar and sell their services to future clients.
It’d be a tax matter I suppose.
We see stories like this all of the time, and they’re always wrong. Someone will guarantee Scherzer more than 6/144. Who is really available in that class of pitcher? It’s him or Lester, and maybe Kenta Maeda is that good if he gets posted, but that’s no guarantee. James Shields is that good, but he’s 33, and who knows how much longer he will be that good?
The fact you might be able to trade for an ace makes no difference. The Yankees don’t have anyone they can trade you, and the Red Sox and Dodgers would probably rather spend money than give away Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson, respectively.
I’m thinking the Cubs and Red Sox are both going to be in on top tier pitching. There’s no way Boston goes into next season without Scherzer and/or Cole Hamels IMO. I see the Cubs making a strong run at Scherzer and signing Lester or Shields. Maybe both. I wouldn’t rule Detroit for Shields either.
Detroit doesn’t need Shields. They need relievers. Until they fix that bleeding wound that is their bullpen, they’re not going to win anything even if they sign every ace that comes on the market.
If Boston goes that high for a starter, they’ll just bring back Lester, because he’s the one who’s proven he can handle the AL East. My guess is that Hamels stays put, because RAJ will overreach in trade talks, as he always does, and also because the Phillies can’t ever make up their mind to hit the reset button. They should have done exactly what the Red Sox did at the deadline, and if they had, they’d be in position to reload immediately, like the Sox did after ’12 and are about to do now.
Max Scherzer will not be back in Detroit. The feelings are mutual. Also, you can bet that Detroit will stick to the route of going after retreads to man the pen.
David Robertson is free agent. I could see the TIgers going for him.
The Sox would never pony up for Max Scherzer and until won’t be dealing with Philly until they bring a reasonable GM in.
Boston made it very clear they’re not going that high for that long on pitching. If Lester gives them a hometown discount they could re-sign him. Shields is a possibility. Scherzer’s out. More likely they sign mid-level alternatives like Liriano or McCarthy and try to trade for another. They also have a lot of prospects on the cusp on major-league quality to play or trade. Some were tried out with mixed results in September although no one stood out. Anthony Ranaudo, for instance, won the International (AAA) League equivalent of the Cy Young then went 4-3 the last 2 months with a poor, depleted Boston team.
No thanks on Scherzer. If the Yankees decide to sign a pitcher this offseason it should be Lester over Scherzer. While Scherzer is the better pitcher, he also looks like the pitcher that will fall of the cliff very soon. He has AJ Burnett written all over him… With Lester, he has AL East and Postseason Success (regardless of how he did last Tuesday) and his stuff looks like it would age a lot better much like Andy Pettitte. If the Yankees sign Lester and resign McCarthy, their rotation could be nasty if (and big IF) Tanaka and Pineda can stay healthy. Would love to see a rotation of Tanaka, Lester, Pineda, McCarthy, and Greene/Sabathia.
“While Scherzer is the better pitcher”
I think this is quite debatable actually. –
Well in all fairness Max Scherzer’s had to deal with the horribleness of the Detroit Tigers many defensive liabilities over the years, including Nick Castellanos at 3B, Rajai Davis at CF and laziness that has become Torrie Hunter’s defense in this year alone. Boston’s always prided itself on good defense over the last decade.
BABIP from 2012-2014
Lester – .303
Scherzer – .302
He also benefitted from Detroit’s offense. He has gotten more run support/ inning than any other pitcher over the last three years.
Austin Jackson was the center fielder until the last two months of this year. He also benefited from having one of the best pitch framers in the business behind the plate. Davis has been quite good in CF, much better than he was at the corners. Otherwise the comments about the defense are fair. It was horrible in 2012 and 2013.
“He also benefitted from Detroit’s offense. He has gotten more run
support/ inning than any other pitcher over the last three years.”
The only thing that effects is a pitcher’s W-L record. Has no effect on their ERA, K/BB, WHIP, etc.
Mathematically, it only has an effect of W-L. But baseball is a mental game.
Does that mean anything? Maybe not, but it’s still worth considering.
Well outside of this season, it’s not like Lester didn’t get any run support from Boston either.
True. I am interested to see what happens to Scherzer if/when he leaves Detroit. I have been rather skeptical of him, though I’ve been wrong about him thus far.
I agree with you, in terms of the pitcher I would want to see in Boston, it would be Lester, then several trades targets, then Shields, and then Scherzer. I just don’t see him being worth anything near the deal he will inevitably sign
I’d like Lester back, but I think he’s going to go to the Cubs. The man who drafted him can offer money and a chance to break and 100+ year old curse. Larry and Henry made their decision on him a long time ago and I don’t see why he should come back.
He has every right to go wherever the money is, which i very well hope is back in Boston. I think it ultimately comes down to Cubs and Sox. But despite those 2 basically running Lester out of town, they have always had a number 1 anchor the staff going into each season that Henry has owned the team. I see something coming, and i sure hope it’s Lester
I think Shields is their guy. They could get involved with Scherzer if his market goes sour given their history with Boras, but that would likely require them to be out on Shields first.
I hope not, Shields is a level down from the other 2 IMO, and if he secures anything more than 4 years i don’t want anything to do with it
I find a lot of value in New school stats but their are many mental aspects of the game they cannot measure and most serious sabermetricians would admit as much. Their argument would generally be that since it can’t be quantified its kind of silly to qualify it. Anyone who has been watching playoff baseball this year would be hard pressed to deny its presence….regardless whether we can put a number on it or not.
He’s also benefited from pitching in a weaker AL Central. Whenever two pitchers are showing close to the same merit, the one from the AL East over the past decade has the edge…but it’s still debatable
.. all worthy arms
I don’t agree about Davis being good in the field, being a Jays fan I doubt he’s changed much from the guy who looks like he’s going to drop every flyball hit to him. Yes, he has speed and naturally range comes with that, he however never gets a good read on where the ball is going.
Although I will retract my assessment of him in center because defensive metrics seem to agree in the small sample size this year, he’s just been average.
He was as bad in right and left in Detroit as he was in Toronto. Center is another story. Comerica has a huge outfield and it plays into his strength, range. He was bad at judging batted balls that sliced and hooked which doesn’t come into play in center. He was also subpar in the corners and at the wall, which doesn’t come into play with a 420 ft center field.
It is logical if you see him regularly in a huge park.
How would Petitte have aged without HGH?
He used it years ago. Ask some recent aging HGH users such as his former teammate A-Rod.
Lol, lester said he dosnt want to go to New York or any place he’s not comfortable. He said comfort over money, he’s not going to the highest bidder. He will sign with either the Redsox or Cubs
Scherzer: Yankees for 7 years/$175MM w/ a $10MM buyout on a $30MM option
OR Tigers for 8 years/$200MM
Lester: Yankees for 5 years/$110MM w/ a club option for like $30MM w/ a $10MM buyout
James Shields: Blue Jays 3 years/$51MM w/ a $4MM buyout on a $19MM option
Lester is certainly getting more years (possibly even 7) and more money than that Unless he went back to Boston on a hometown discount.
Agreed. If that was all it was going to take, he’d still be in Boston. Not to mention his lack of draft pick compensation will likely make him the most desired pitcher on the market.
I think that’s all it would have taken in Spring Training. Too bad the Sox didn’t offer it then, because things just got much more expensive.
I’d really like to know what happened with all of that. Something doesn’t seem right.
I don’t think they want him back. Or they would only resign him if it was for four years. It was the same with Pedro, they didn’t want to give him a long term deal and as it turns out they were right in that case. This way they can do the same they did with Ells. Sure we wanted him back but that was much too much money to pay him. Seven years it too much to give anyone who is 30. There is zero chance they’ll still be valuable the last two or three years of the deal. It makes sense from a business standpoint, but you still need an ace. My money is on Shields or Hamels.
My money (or rather Sox’s money) is on Lester and/or Cueto. Max is overpriced and Shields is already 33.
If the red Sox really wanted that deal to get done, they would have done it by now. Even with the “hometown” discount, he’s going to get way more years than they are comfortable giving.
Lester said he dosnt want to go to the yankees. He’s not going to the highest bidder he said. He’s going to where he’s comfortable which will probable be either te redsox or cubs
I would much prefer New York signing Lester rather than Scherzer. I feel like Scherzer is going to have a Tim Lincecum type decline very soon and he’ll end up as a good 4th of the rotation pitcher. Lester is proven and I too see him as an Andy Pettitte type of guy who will age gracefully. Tanaka, Pineda, Lester, McCarthy, Greene is a fantastic rotation. Can then turn around and use Nova as trade bait potentially.
Lincecum declined after overthrowing his fastball with the worst delivery mechanics known to man. People were expecting his arm to fall off sooner then later and it looks like that started happening awhile ago when his fastball velocity died.
That’s typical, though, of most young hard throwers. They have to learn to eventually pitch. I think of Jake Peavy. Some never transition into solid veteran arms…the guys that pitch as #3 starters and lead teams to pennants
Lester has apparently said he doesn’t want to go to the Yankees though, even if they offer more money.
“The Red Sox will be looking for a new hitting coach”
Man I really wish that said Yankees instead of Red Sox.
I don’t mind giving Kevin Long another year. But, I am ready to replace Rob Thomson. I am pretty sure the Yankees led the league in outs at home. Which with McCann’s (lack of) speed I would understand if he was the one thrown out all the time, but it wasn’t just him.
I’ve wanted Rob Thomson gone for quite awhile too. And yes I believe they did lead the league in outs at home plate. I remember him sending Beltran home on a hard hit ball to CF with Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF
My GUESS–the Sox offer Lester 4 years @ $30 M—AN Opt OUT clause and a 5th year option of $20M or renegotiate if he decides to stay. I would have that offer hand delivered by John Henry.
This will be our only offer to you in FA it will be withdrawn a week from today.
The hit against their 2015 budget sort of defeats the purpose of the short term contract. There’s no way that an option would be 1/3rd less than his AAV unless it was a player option, which are rare and never used with top tier talent.
I think they front load because they need him, he knows they need and want him back. If he chooses to walk away after 4 years he has a pretty good haul to walk away with. If they haven’t won a WS in those 4 years perhaps he signs with a hot team for two years. I don’t think he cares whether he’s the highest paid. I think he likes the feel of living in Boston, the fans, the management, etc. I may be wrong but that’s okay, everyone is entitled to their opinion. If he comes and Shields comes they will go after Hamels or the best prospect they can trade for.
So if the dominos fall accordingly- a rotation of:
Lester, Shields, Hamels, Kelly and Barnes, Ranaudo, Johnson or ERod. We may have to part with: Cespy, Rusney, Betts or Xander, Vazquez or Swihart, Buch, Owens, Napoli.
Apparently, Lester had put his home for sale in Boston. Doesn’t mean he’s not returning though
Yeah but that’s not a good sign at all.
I wouldn’t think that’s a great sign, but then again…Lester is in an income realm that doesn’t demand the real estate security that most Americans need. I suppose he could be selling and waiting to reinvest.
Do you honestly believe that a rotation of Lester, Shields, and Hamels has a greater than 1% chance of happening?
If the Sox sign Lester, I think Big Game James will follow the money. It’s possible he goes elsewhere and it’s possible if the Cubs lose out on both they will go hard for Hamels. Perhaps the Sox will go after Liriano or McCarthy.
If the dominos fall accordingly, or luckily/fortunately?
Whatever—I think these owners are embarrassed their team didn’t make the playoffs. In addition they know the O’s, Jay’s and Yankees will be going for it next year and The Rays are always tough competitors.
Being embarrassed doesn’t mean you can outbid everyone on the FA market for the most coveted players. It would take a miracle/serious overpay to sign all 3 of those players.
Let’s see what happens. If they don’t get Lester, Sheilds and Hamels maybe the will get Lester, Liriano and McCarthy. That would be a plus to go with Kelly and Barnes.
sorry but the yankees are going to re-sign mmcarthy..nice try though lol
They will move Nap and possibly Buch and maybe even Cespy. That’s roughly $40 M. According to Alex S. the Sox have roughly $40-50 additional they can spend. I think TW and JH will break the bank and the Spending Cap–NESN’s ratings and who cares about the Spending Tax.
They will trade for hamels, sign sheilds, sign Sandoval, and extend cespedes
I like the way you think Terry!
Thanks: my guesses are
Hamles: for Henry Owens, E-Rod, Garin Ceccini, and Brock Holt
Shields: 4/72mil
Sandoval: 4/80 mil
Cespedes: 4/80 mil
Thats an additional 57mil a year including hamels and considering cespedes still has 1 year of making 10 mil on his contract. BUT after this 2015 season sox will save 29 mil a year from Victorino and Napoli
I think that would work nicely. Maybe you have a direct line to Cespy—he said he might test the FA waters. I think he owes some money I would go with your guess.
With due respect to Greg Colbrunn, the Red Sox haven’t been able to hit their way out of a wet paper bag. I wish Greg the best, but perhaps Ben Cherington needs to scrounge up Jim Thome’s number for a chat.
They hit pretty well last year under Colbrunn
Do sports bars/restaurant TVs figure into these viewership totals?
I don’t think so. I think all ratings are Household ratings.
Just curious, because I’d think that it’d be dubious to include a ballgame running as background noise in a sports restaurant or bar as actual viewership…especially when assessing commercial viewership.
That’s why sports ratings IMO are pretty flawed.
Is it determined by time watched, or does a check in on a mobile device count as “game watched”. Etc?
Mobile device numbers are tracked pretty thoroughly. Though if you’re watching on Mlb. tv, you’re not getting commercials and the ratings mean less.
That’s another reason why sports bar ratings aren’t that important. People watching at a bar don’t care about commercials. Ratings matter to the networks that can sell advertising.
No way mobile devices would count, and I don’t know how long one has to be tuned in to it for it to be considered a game watched.
Nielsen used to do viewer submitted viewing diaries. Those weren’t always reliable. They were time blocked. Not positive if that’s still the current model.
Mobile devices are tracked fairly thoroughly, but they wouldn’t be lumped in with TV ratings. They’re also significantly less important since many of the mobile devices don’t have commercials.
For the purposes of regional sports networks, mobile device ratings wouldn’t count due to regional black outs of live coverage. Just ludicrous to continue with the arcane black out rules. What other business refuses to even SELL you their product?
Really frustrating.
Norah, I did read today that mlb “might” lift the black out bans for next season. I’ll believe it when I see it.
And watch his era go to 4.50 in that stadium.He is overrated.
There are *at least* three big money teams–Red Sox, Yankees, and Cubs–in the market for good starting pitching. And there always the possibilities of offers made by the Tigers, Dodgers, and other teams. Joel Sherman’s insight that because the overall league batting average is down, and the not-so-new-insight that pitchers are fragile, might translate into not wanting to pay for top-tier pitchers is one that will not influence Hot Stove season decisions. Once the bidding starts, teams tend to revert to their mean, and a new idea like that one will disappear and the wallets will open up for Scherzer, Lester, et al.
That said, I do hope the Yankees re-sign Brandon McCarthy, he was stellar.
Predications:
Lester: signs with Cubs
Scherzer: signs with Yankees
Shields: signs with Redsox
Hamels: traded to Redsox for: Henry Owens, Edwardo Rodrigues, Garin Ceccini, and Brock Holt
hopefully they save Max’s money to extend Price. I have a feeling Max wants to pitch in St. Louis.