Right-hander Lucas Giolito remains a free agent a few weeks into the 2026 season. A report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic today says the Cubs and Padres are showing interest in the the righty.
Giolito, 31, has been the most notable unsigned free agent for a while now. Max Scherzer and Zack Littell signed in mid-March, leaving Giolito as the last standing member of the MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents from the beginning of the offseason.
He recently spoke about his experience with Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. He said he had some talks with a few teams but ultimately didn’t make much progress, seemingly due to disagreements about his salary. “I just want to play for close to what my value is,” Giolito told Bradford. “Everything is based on these models now. Everyone uses projection and models. My agency (CAA) does the same thing. When you look at models and projections (for value), it’s like ‘alright cool, give me something that’s relatively close to that.’ Let’s go and get it. I’m ready to go.”
Giolito is coming off a good season in terms of surface-level numbers. He tossed 145 innings for the Red Sox with a 3.41 earned run average. If teams have skepticism about that, it could be because his .273 batting average on balls in play and 76.7% strand rate were both to the lucky side. His 19.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate were actually subpar. ERA estimators like his 4.17 FIP and 4.65 SIERA felt his ERA was lucky by about a full run.
That continued a bit of a downward trend for him. He was a borderline ace from 2019 to 2021 but saw diminished results after that. His ERA was just under 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He then missed 2024 while recovering from surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. It’s not known what type of salary Giolito would consider fair but it seems he hasn’t received an offer he would consider to be appropriate. He signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox ahead of 2024, prior to that surgery.
In his recent comments, the righty added that he has been throwing about 75 pitches on his own in order to stay close to game ready. That’s a similar situation to Patrick Corbin. The Jays signed Corbin in response to some injuries. Corbin had been getting himself stretched out and only needed one minor league start before joining the big league club, even though he missed spring training.
For the Cubs and Padres, it’s understandable that they would look to what’s available, given their recent injuries. The Chicago rotation suffered one big blow recently, as Cade Horton‘s season has been ended by UCL surgery. They also placed Matthew Boyd on the injured list with a much more minor issue, a strained biceps. They are still waiting for Justin Steele, who is recovering from last year’s UCL surgery.
They currently have a rotation group consisting of Edward Cabrera, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Colin Rea. Assad has options and started the season in the minors while Rea started in the bullpen. Both got moved up the depth chart when Horton and Boyd got hurt. If Giolito were added into the mix, Assad could again be optioned and/or Rea could get nudged back to a relief role. Boyd getting healthy fairly quickly could also impact the decision making.
On the financial side of things, both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have the Cubs narrowly above the competitive balance tax. The report from The Athletic says the Cubs are planning to pay the tax this year, so they shouldn’t have to worry about nudging their number up a bit.
For the Padres, their rotation depth has been an ongoing issue for years and 2026 is no exception. Over the weekend, Nick Pivetta exited a start due to elbow tightness. Joe Musgrove is still not back from his 2024 Tommy John surgery. Griffin Canning is still working his way back from last year’s Achilles injury. Matt Waldron required a minor procedure during spring training and began the season on the injured list.
Unless Pivetta’s issue proves to be minor, the Friars have a rotation mix of Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez. Both Waldron and Canning have begun rehab assignments and could be activated soon but that won’t necessarily solve everything since Buehler and Márquez have each posted lackluster results so far. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but it would be nice to keep him in Triple-A as depth. Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are in the system on minor league deals but Gonzales has a 7.90 ERA through three Triple-A starts while McKenzie has a 13.50 ERA at that level so far this year.
Adding Giolito could make sense from a baseball perspective but the report from The Athletic notes that the ongoing sale process might be a snag. The Seidler family is actively trying to sell the franchise. Even if they get an agreement fairly soon, it would still have to be approved by the league. The current owners may be hesitant to add more money to the books while that process is ongoing.
It’s also possible that other clubs could jump into the mix. The Astros have lost three rotation members to the IL in recent days and could feel compelled to add another arm. The Orioles just lost Zach Eflin to UCL surgery. The Reds have Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the IL at the moment. Other injuries are sure to pop up as well.
Photo courtesy of David Butler II, Imagn Images
For him still being unsigned, shows his injury is probably more severe that’s its believed to be
Have you seen his recent interview on not being signed? He’s throwing 75 pitches per session, doesn’t sound too injured to me…. He made it sound like its more about not being offered enough money his agents have decided he’s worth based on market value.
Is he tagged with any compensation? Or is it just plain old $cash holding things up?
Will he be the next Jordan Montgomery ?
I’m just going to say it – when discussing a 3.3 +\- billion dollar transaction, adding 5 mil prorated for Gio for 6 months is not a bump that will derail the bidding process.
3.3 minus the .75 debt that we know about. Plus the minus of whatever the new owners don’t want to pay for Darvish and the pension years of Machado and Bogaerts.
Be careful with the 3.3. It’s a nice big successful number for everyone at MLB to promote but it’s not what is changing hands. Who knows what that will end up being.. $5m is still $5m someone has to pay.
If it comes down to the Cubs versus the Padres I know who I’d put my money on…maybe.
Just do it Cubs. The rotation needs reinforcement and relying on Ben Brown or Jaxon Wiggins is fools gold for a serious postseason contender. They are also better served with Colin Rea in their bullpen as a long reliever/spot starter. This is about lining up a playoff rotation and Lucas Giolito would be my choice as a candidate, a SP who if healthy can actually miss some bats.
How long till he is ready?
B.P. Sears can stay in the minors.
Do it already, Jed.
Cubs seem the most fitting for him.
Yeah spend Jedley. Keep the sheep happy. Doesn’t matter if it makes sense. Wonder what Tommy Tax will say?
He’s totally justified in holding out for what he wants, but pitchers who sit out spring training have a bad track record. He’ll need weeks to ramp up, and that still wont be a real spring for him.
I’d want the Astros to get him but if he doesn’t shift us into contending I’d rather just stay beneath the threshold and get someone like Anderson.
Pitchers that don’t go through Spring Training don’t fare well once they go through some minor league starts to prepare. I really don’t think Giolito would move the needle for the Cubs or for any team kicking the tires on him.
This is major league baseball.
We are halfway through April.
Either his salary expectations are out of whack or there is a red flag in his medicals.
All 30 teams can be granted access to either or both.
If everything lined up right he would have been signed no later than January.