Right-hander Lucas Giolito remains a free agent a few weeks into the 2026 season. A report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic today says the Cubs and Padres are showing interest in the the righty.
Giolito, 31, has been the most notable unsigned free agent for a while now. Max Scherzer and Zack Littell signed in mid-March, leaving Giolito as the last standing member of the MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents from the beginning of the offseason.
He recently spoke about his experience with Rob Bradford of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. He said he had some talks with a few teams but ultimately didn’t make much progress, seemingly due to disagreements about his salary. “I just want to play for close to what my value is,” Giolito told Bradford. “Everything is based on these models now. Everyone uses projection and models. My agency (CAA) does the same thing. When you look at models and projections (for value), it’s like ‘alright cool, give me something that’s relatively close to that.’ Let’s go and get it. I’m ready to go.”
Giolito is coming off a good season in terms of surface-level numbers. He tossed 145 innings for the Red Sox with a 3.41 earned run average. If teams have skepticism about that, it could be because his .273 batting average on balls in play and 76.7% strand rate were both to the lucky side. His 19.7% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate were actually subpar. ERA estimators like his 4.17 FIP and 4.65 SIERA felt his ERA was lucky by about a full run.
That continued a bit of a downward trend for him. He was a borderline ace from 2019 to 2021 but saw diminished results after that. His ERA was just under 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He then missed 2024 while recovering from surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. It’s not known what type of salary Giolito would consider fair but it seems he hasn’t received an offer he would consider to be appropriate. He signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox ahead of 2024, prior to that surgery.
In his recent comments, the righty added that he has been throwing about 75 pitches on his own in order to stay close to game ready. That’s a similar situation to Patrick Corbin. The Jays signed Corbin in response to some injuries. Corbin had been getting himself stretched out and only needed one minor league start before joining the big league club, even though he missed spring training.
For the Cubs and Padres, it’s understandable that they would look to what’s available, given their recent injuries. The Chicago rotation suffered one big blow recently, as Cade Horton‘s season has been ended by UCL surgery. They also placed Matthew Boyd on the injured list with a much more minor issue, a strained biceps. They are still waiting for Justin Steele, who is recovering from last year’s UCL surgery.
They currently have a rotation group consisting of Edward Cabrera, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Colin Rea. Assad has options and started the season in the minors while Rea started in the bullpen. Both got moved up the depth chart when Horton and Boyd got hurt. If Giolito were added into the mix, Assad could again be optioned and/or Rea could get nudged back to a relief role. Boyd getting healthy fairly quickly could also impact the decision making.
On the financial side of things, both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have the Cubs narrowly above the competitive balance tax. The report from The Athletic says the Cubs are planning to pay the tax this year, so they shouldn’t have to worry about nudging their number up a bit.
For the Padres, their rotation depth has been an ongoing issue for years and 2026 is no exception. Over the weekend, Nick Pivetta exited a start due to elbow tightness. Joe Musgrove is still not back from his 2024 Tommy John surgery. Griffin Canning is still working his way back from last year’s Achilles injury. Matt Waldron required a minor procedure during spring training and began the season on the injured list.
Unless Pivetta’s issue proves to be minor, the Friars have a rotation mix of Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez. Both Waldron and Canning have begun rehab assignments and could be activated soon but that won’t necessarily solve everything since Buehler and Márquez have each posted lackluster results so far. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but it would be nice to keep him in Triple-A as depth. Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are in the system on minor league deals but Gonzales has a 7.90 ERA through three Triple-A starts while McKenzie has a 13.50 ERA at that level so far this year.
Adding Giolito could make sense from a baseball perspective but the report from The Athletic notes that the ongoing sale process might be a snag. The Seidler family is actively trying to sell the franchise. Even if they get an agreement fairly soon, it would still have to be approved by the league. The current owners may be hesitant to add more money to the books while that process is ongoing.
It’s also possible that other clubs could jump into the mix. The Astros have lost three rotation members to the IL in recent days and could feel compelled to add another arm. The Orioles just lost Zach Eflin to UCL surgery. The Reds have Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the IL at the moment. Other injuries are sure to pop up as well.
Photo courtesy of David Butler II, Imagn Images
For him still being unsigned, shows his injury is probably more severe that’s its believed to be
Have you seen his recent interview on not being signed? He’s throwing 75 pitches per session, doesn’t sound too injured to me…. He made it sound like its more about not being offered enough money his agents have decided he’s worth based on market value.
Is he tagged with any compensation? Or is it just plain old $cash holding things up?
I failed to read the whole article above before commenting lol, but it’s above as well. He made it sound like he wants to be signed for what’s he worth basically is how I interpreted what he said….However, he said he’s ready to go on Minor league outings if thats what a teams wants or throw 5 innings in the bigs. Still wish the Braves would’ve snagged him.
No no compensation at all
What he didn’t say is what his velocity and control is in those 75 pitch sessions. He also has not been throwing vs live batters which is the next step. Just bullpens so far and that is what you do the first or 2nd week of spring training. Beyond that he needs game time to get up to 90 pitches at that speed, as opposed to just throwing bullpens or batting practice.
No one thinks he’s ready to pitch 5 innings tomorrow regardless what he says…but most commenters on here speculated his elbow is about to pop is why he’s not signed as an excuse to not sign him. 75 pitches in a bullpen session doesn’t sound like it correct? Heck, I’m obviously a Braves fan and we’re throwing out Holmes every 5 days knowing his elbow issues that may be inevitable.
Web – Great post, you beat me to it.
He’s probably throwing just like he did in 2024 ST, right before his season ended just a few pitches into his 2nd ST game.
braves – If he was truly 100% healthy, he would have pitched in the WBC.
But he didn’t, probably because he’s not.
braves – With all due respect, you have no idea what his velo or spin rate was. He’s obviously gonna exaggerate, like most people on their resume. For all we know he kept it under 85 MPH every pitch.
Can’t believe everything you hear these days …. especially with Giolito’s history.
Fever, I get that but everything around him is pure speculation on our part. I haven’t seen his agent, doctor, etc. say here’s his medicals and it shows xyz. I’ve only seen him speak so i have to go off that…I guess I’m too trusting of a person to imagine someone trying to steal a contract knowing his elbow is about to pop, especially knowing the team will do a medical. It’s not inconceivable however.
braves – Giolito had a horrible 2022 & 2023 season.
He then blew out his arm like 2 batters into his 2nd 2024 ST game.
Realistically there’s no chance he wasn’t aware of an injury waiting to happen, but he had 39 million reasons to keep it to himself.
And that’s likely what he’s doing again now.
There are 30 teams who think he isn’t worth what his agents think he is. This is clear.
He takes a deal that is below that magical number or gets zero.
It’s pretty clear at this point.
He just needs a contract with a small base and incentives based on innings or appearances.
When the team he just played for, who he claims he had a successful year with have zero interest, that should tell you something.
He wants at least 15M for the year. Probably wanted 3/60M at least over the winter.
I don’t see the Padres going there. Possibly the Cubs or Orioles or long shot Phillies.
His k/9 ratio was the worst since his first full season.
Interestingly, his k/w ratio remained within career norms.
So, there both cause for concern given how he ended the year, and, cause for some optimism he could improve.
Remember, all these numbers are skewed by the fact he didnt play at all in 2024, so, players in their return year after major arm surgery losing a season do see a dip in their numbers.
His problem is, trying to get that second year to show he’s back.
Will he be the next Jordan Montgomery ?
Yep
I’m just going to say it – when discussing a 3.3 +\- billion dollar transaction, adding 5 mil prorated for Gio for 6 months is not a bump that will derail the bidding process.
3.3 minus the .75 debt that we know about. Plus the minus of whatever the new owners don’t want to pay for Darvish and the pension years of Machado and Bogaerts.
Be careful with the 3.3. It’s a nice big successful number for everyone at MLB to promote but it’s not what is changing hands. Who knows what that will end up being.. $5m is still $5m someone has to pay.
I don’t think you understand how this works. Payroll is not “debt”.
I think I might. An ex 18 year President told me all about how the sale process works. He went through it. I’m old, and it was a while ago but I’d back myself on that one. However, it is absolutely no surprise at all that a Padre fan is choosing to ignore what they don’t want to believe. I wrote it knowing that was the likely response. Anyhow, your call. Dismiss it as you please.
If a contract is involved it is debt
Pro sports teams are not your typical business where the business owners is looking to maximize profit. These are immensely valuable assets that are typically leveraged at obscenely low rates to generate capital that accrues at a much higher rate.
These franchises also are huge tax havens for these owners who are already worth billion$. The stadiums which most dont even fund and even the players contracts are depreciating assets that further lower taxes.
The ultimate product in pro sports are the athletes themselves. So while you are trying to claim Machado and Bogaerts as just debt is absolutely not telling the whole story and is framed to back a narrative. The simple fact that you do not even need to use their whole names has you inadvertently showing that Padres have assets with name recognition. That name recognition in a business where the athletes are the very product is quite valuable. Those very names help bolster and drive up the value of the franchise.
It is always amusing when someone so obviously trying to paint a narrative happens to know or been told by some unnamed important figure such as an ex president. It always seems so crucial to point out this unnamed person and their position, yet despite that importance conviently that name is typically not provided….
The narrative you are trying to paint is absolutely misleading, false, and when one has to resort to fiction to bolster a narrative totally discredits it.
I doubt that he’s signs for less than 10M.
If it comes down to the Cubs versus the Padres I know who I’d put my money on…maybe.
Just do it Cubs. The rotation needs reinforcement and relying on Ben Brown or Jaxon Wiggins is fools gold for a serious postseason contender. They are also better served with Colin Rea in their bullpen as a long reliever/spot starter. This is about lining up a playoff rotation and Lucas Giolito would be my choice as a candidate, a SP who if healthy can actually miss some bats.
How long till he is ready?
Late-May or early-June.
Didn’t miss many bats last year. I don’t know about that. Better than Assad or Rea but not a guy I’d put in a postseason rotation.
Last I heard, he was dating a Chicago girl whos parents still reside in the area. For whats that worth…
For whats that worth, he had spent the bulk of his MLB career with the White Sox and he loves Chicago.
If the romance with the Chicago girl began then it’s about time he makes an honest woman out of her…and himself! Perhaps she’s making sure he’s gainfully employed before she accepts any proposal which is yet another good reason that the Cubs should sign him…in the name of love! 🙂
Aaron – I’m with you on making an honest woman out of the girlfriend, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for him to make an honest woman out of himself ;O)
Fever – wouldnt making an honest woman of himself (herself? Themself?) require signing in LA instead of Chitown?
Lucia Giolito or something such?
I’d prefer Martin Perez.
B.P. Sears can stay in the minors.
Padres have to make room for Waldron soon, Canning within a couple of weeks, and Musgrove by early June at the latest. Unless there are more injuries or Buehler and Marquez completely fall apart, I don’t see Sears getting many starts for the Padres. Do you?
Adding Giolito jams them up. Buehler and Marquez have pitched well, Id let them rip for a month.
Padres are set in the rotation and have good depth. I still think Buehler is going to post a 2.5 ERA month if he keeps getting the ball.
@Web#2
“Unless there are more injuries…”
Of course there are going to be more injuries. It’s a MLB pitching staff. It’s not a matter of if. It’s a matter of when and who and how long.
With Darvish out for the season, Musgrove on the IL and not expected back until early-June, and Pivetta on the IL for at least 15 days, the Padres are close to the 2021-2025 MLB average of 33% of starting pitcher IL days per season.
Do it already, Jed.
Cubs seem the most fitting for him.
Yeah spend Jedley. Keep the sheep happy. Doesn’t matter if it makes sense. Wonder what Tommy Tax will say?
Convinced you don’t even like the cubs. Never anything but negativity and more often than not, your “hot takes” from the offseason are absolute busts come real time. You’d win 75 games in a simulated season with some of your takes. The team is a playoff hopeful, they have to do something, can’t run a whole season of Assad and Rea in your rotation and expect great results. I’d rather attempt to get some productivity out of Gio than sit on my hands and surrender a season in April.
@TheB your “hot takes” from the offseason are absolute busts come real time.
Please leave Uncle alone—we all appreciate his knee jerk negativity after a lot of things happen. Let us revert back to last week’s flavor of the week.
Uncle asked the crew out here if the Cubs should trade Seiya for Tanner Scott straight up. As soon as someone came up with a great counterpoint he didn’t accept the answer and told the guy that he must be on drugs if he thought the Cubs could win the division.
He quickly, by himself, turned the thread in to a Milwaukee this, Milwaukee that and gave us a current events lesson that Milwaukee was already four games ahead and there was no way the Cubs could compete……we tried to slow him down and let him know it was April 8th. he kept going.
Guess what—six days later—Milwaukee ain’t four games ahead of the Cubs anymore.
Then—he went on a little rant how Moises Ballesteros should have been sent down instead of getting rid of Dylan Carlson and how horrible he is. Hmmm..six days later there are exactly THREE qualified hitters with a better batting average than Ballesteros in the National League.
Uncle is very passionate but he lets any negative thing feed into his emotions and gets clouded from the fact the baseball seasons do not occur within a day and single data points are useless even if they feed into his anti-Jed agenda.
Let him go—we all appreciate his passion. And appreciate the balance he brings as for every solid good take there needs to a be bad one.
Well I pay my money just like you to watch the Cubs and I’m not a sheep that just goes down the ” Everything is roses” Mentality that seems to grip most of you. I see a great situation being ruined by one idiot in the organization. Well two if you count Hawkins who is just a clone. This is a team that should have been in the Playoffs with a few decent moves but failed most of the time for only one reason. Bad Management. The complete mishandling of the Farm System because the fans are jealous of the Dodgers and Yankees and want to be just like them. So what you get is half of this, Half of that and misused funds and talent. It makes me mad that what could be won’t be ever because there is no plan, Never was and never will be until he’s gone. Shiny thing, I gotta have that even though the thing he should spend money on he has some phobia about because he’s brain damaged in some way. So keep bleating about how everything is going to work out fine and come up roses, Even though we’ve seen it fail again and again. There’s only one POBO in baseball who spends 8 million bucks on a manager and refuses to give him either a bench or a bullpen. Glad Ballesteros is hitting because when he doesn’t he is completely worthless which is what I said in the beginning he was lost and looked it. I might not have season tickets but I pay for the Crap show that is Marquee and money for the MLB package so I can watch the prospects so it entitles me to an opinion. Sorry if the sheep don’t. like it. I say tough.
I value your opinion and respect it—it’s just like TheB says—your hot takes are almost always wrong and based on your emotional disconnect with Jed Hoyer.
What complete mishandling of the farm system has he done? Aren’t Michael Busch, Miguel Amaya, PCA, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Matt Shaw pretty much every day contributors? Seems OK to me. I don’t see other lineups littered with guys “that got away”.
What bench is baseball isn’t bad—all 24th through 26th guys suck. What’s the problem with the bullpen? He’s built enough to be 16 deep already. Remember your bullpen answer was Tanner Scott last year and he was the worst reliever in the sport.
What I am trying to tell you is that you knee jerk everything (being 4 behind the Brewers—Ballesteros is terrible) and never understand that the season doesn’t end on April 4th and that there will, no matter what, be only one champion.
And was somebody disagrees you just insults at them, tell them they are on drugs.
You always put your own spin on what I say. I never said Ballesteros was terrible I said he was lost and could have been sent down instead of losing Carlson who I could care less about either BTW. That’s what I SAID not what you thought I said as usual. Hey I respect your opinion but you’re a season ticket holder with Rose colored glasses on(Like Many Cub Fans BTW), I just don’t agree with it) I’ve been watching Hoyer flounder around for the whole time he’s been here since Epstein left. Where most guys get like 5 years he’s been here for 8 with nothing much to show for it and gets an extension. Look he doesn’t get the unlimited money to spend like the Dodgers give but he gets more than enough to get the job done, More than about 85% of the league. I say he’s a failure, Complete failure. We’ll never agree so lets agree to disagree. It’s fine. LOL
He’s totally justified in holding out for what he wants, but pitchers who sit out spring training have a bad track record. He’ll need weeks to ramp up, and that still wont be a real spring for him.
Was going to say the same thing about the poor track record of pitchers who sign late.
Giolito makes the situation worse with his comments about wanting to play for close to his value. Dude, the league has decided you’re not worth what your agent is asking for — read the room!
I’d want the Astros to get him but if he doesn’t shift us into contending I’d rather just stay beneath the threshold and get someone like Anderson.
Of all the teams with multiple injuries to starters, the Astros may make the most sense.
Pitchers that don’t go through Spring Training don’t fare well once they go through some minor league starts to prepare. I really don’t think Giolito would move the needle for the Cubs or for any team kicking the tires on him.
This is major league baseball.
We are halfway through April.
Either his salary expectations are out of whack or there is a red flag in his medicals.
All 30 teams can be granted access to either or both.
If everything lined up right he would have been signed no later than January.
I can understand that he may have gotten squeezed to where he never got a fair offer. What I don’t understand is him refusing to take a significant discount when necessary, especially now that the season has started so that he’s going to lose more and more playing time the longer he takes to sign.
If he’s going to have to take a pro-rated discount anyway, he might have made more money with a regular discount before the season started, not to mention how often pitchers get messed up when missing Spring Training.
It would be nice if my Padres checked out Giolito, found him healthy and then signed him to one-year deal. That would be great.
The Padres have shown no interest in Giolito to date. According to Giolito the Padres have not been one of the teams that he mentioned have been present at his recent workouts. Just because it kinda, sorta makes sense for a team to sign someone like Giolito doesn’t mean that they want him.
Right now, the Padres have Waldron almost ready and he has a 0.00 ERA with 12 SO and 0 BB over 12 IP in 3 rehab starts for the Chihuahuas. Canning will join the rotation when he is ready, and he is 2-3 more rehab starts from being called up. Musgrove is throwing simulated games and should be ready for a rehab assignment in the next couple of weeks which would put him in line for a late-May, early-June return to the Padres rotation. Because he missed spring training entirely, it would take Giolito as long as Musgrove to be ready to join the rotation.
At an asking price somewhere between 2/32 and 2/40, signing Giolito who missed all of 2024 after UCL surgery and was shut down at the end of 2025 because of UCL issues is not a good investment unless a new ownership comes in that says, “just spend”. If that is the case, I would much rather see them go all in for Tarik Skubal and re-signing King to a longer-term deal if he has a healthy and productive 2026. The current ownership said just a few weeks ago that Preller had the financial flexibility to go after any player he felt would be a difference maker. The is no “limit to the baseball operations department’s financial flexibility”. If Pivetta’s injury is severe enough that he will miss the rest of the season, maybe at a much lower price point the Padres would be interested. Up until now they have not shown that they are.
A side note, the 20-day rehab assignment for Sung-Mun Song ends on 4/15. Who do you think will be sent down or DFA’d?
Giolito isn’t getting 2 years. He’s lucky to get a pro rated 1/10 at this point. Pivetta is about to hit the IL & the depth doesn’t look great. Marquez is headed towards a DFA. Still think the Cubs are probably more likely.
Web – I’ll pick Ty with a side deal if not claimed to go to El Paso for 30 days.
They will undoubtedly defer to the veteran / career of NC over defense and a couple of decent years for Ty.
Ty probably gets claimed but Nick definitely gets claimed.
I think it would have been France for certain before Sunday’s game. And it may still be. I HATE to say it but it might be Castellanos. I really want to keep Nick but…
This Padres team needs Castellanos. I think he gives them an edge that they just don’t have without him. Once Tatis starts hitting HRs pitchers will start brushing him back more. He’ll wind up getting hit. That’s where you want a Castellanos to lay down the law. He speaks his mind.
Angels should sign him, he owes them a Mulligan!
I don’t agree with Giolito’s position, as the evidence shows that there’s just too much of a disadvantage for pitchers who miss most or all of Spring Training. If I was a decent unsigned MLB free agent pitcher with Spring Training approaching, I’d tell my agent to take the best available MLB offer I had at that point.
I just came here to deny the speculation that my team is secretly interested in Giolito.
with their very shaky rotation, the Red Sox should entertain a reunion.
Awful teammate, whoever signs him will ultimately suffer from doing so
of course the Padres are interested.
The story would be if they aren’t interested.
The Padres have shown no interest. According to Giolito they are not one of the teams that have reached out to him or attended his workouts. Stammen said yesterday that the Padres are staying with internal options to replace Pivetta.
And really, they have some options for short term but unfortunately, until Canning comes back with #2 stuff (hopefully in 2 weeks), the options are more back end pushing everyone else up.
If Canning comes back soon and is in form, Joe at end of May, in form, SD should be fine. If Nick comes back – in form – after AS break, it will be like making a deadline deal without losing prospects!
Just have to give some guys a shot and roll with it.
Honestly, as deep as the BP is with a few guys that can be on the option train, BP days isn’t a bad idea.
Morgan, Cruz, Sears, Jacob, Hart, Gillespie, Peralta, Estrada (when back), just a lot of guys that can go 3 to start a game and then play the option roulette.
Better than an innings eater but not by much. He priced himself out of the picture. Everywhere a take it or leave it deal manifested, he left it.
There’s a lot of money in baseball, but if you are looking at a team that’s close to or over one of the CBT thresholds it’s a big risk to take if you give him anything but a comparatively low base with attainable incentives contract. He and his agents are smart enough to know that–what they may be waiting for is the sudden need (injury, etc.) situation. It’s a gamble. Sometimes the market you rely on doesn’t exist for every situation.
Waldron has been added to the Padres roster. Buehler had a good outing last time out. I don’t like the sound of Privetta’s elbow issue. He missed a start in Spring Training due to his elbow. You can almost guarantee Giolito isn’t worth what he is asking. Isn’t it obvious to MLB organizations that having starters throw as hard as they can for as long as they can is not a long term sustainable philosophy? Starters are dropping like flies. It starts in development. Give me a like Greg Maddux. He is going to out smart you.
Why sign Giolito when you can just trade the remnants of our depleted farm system for a 3 month rental in July?
Watching the Cardinals on mlb.tv; apparently no one told them they are at the beginning of a deep rebuild….I don’t know if the Cubs would BE better if they had more dark-skinned players (though I suspect they would be), but they sure would LOOK better if they did, more like a 21st-century team. You can tell yourself that the Cubs’ conspicuous whiteness is random or coincidental. I wish I could believe that. Thoughts for Jackie Robinson Day.
Ok I’ll bite. Do you feel the same way Alan when there are only..(Looks at Alan’s notes), dark-skinned players on a team? Or is it just when there are mainly white guys on a team?
Doesn’t he have to go to the Braves so he can be with Reynaldo Lopez?
He’s gotta sign soon or his earning potential will crater. And to make anything near what he wants its gotta be incentive based. Im thinking 5M + 300k per start (or 3+ ip relief appearance). 2nd year option at 17M triggers with 100 IP
He is unsigned as no one is convinced he’s healthy