Which of this offseason’s free agents are most likely to justify their contracts? It’s hard to say, given that we most big-name free agents haven’t even agreed to terms yet, but Doug Miller polled MLB.com’s writers to compile a list of top free agents, and they think Jon Lester’s next contract is most likely to turn out to be a good one. Miller notes that contracts for pitchers often go south, but points out that Lester is healthy, left-handed and relatively young, and has been a consistently strong performer. Perhaps the most outside-the-box choice is Andrew Miller at No. 3, the idea being that Miller’s lack of closer status will limit him on the market, perhaps to three years and under $30MM. Here are the latest notes from the American League:
- Scott Boras told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio he has not heard anything from the Tigers indicating they are not interested in re-signing Max Scherzer. MLB.com’s Jason Beck has a partial transcript of the interview, including Boras saying he is not worried about the lack of teams linked to Scherzer while implying clubs may sign his client and then open a spot in their rotation by trading another of their starters calling this “a two-step process.”
- Speaking of Scherzer (the top ranked free agent on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list), the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman believes the Red Sox should kick those tires because their rotation is in shambles. Lester is the preferred option, according to Silverman, but a trade for Cole Hamels may wind up being the surest route for the Red Sox to get the caliber of starter they need.
- The Tigers have until Thursday to exercise Alex Avila’s 2015 option, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. If the Tigers opt for the $200K buyout rather than the $5.4MM option, Morosi notes Avila will remain on their roster because he is still arbitration eligible.
Pass on Hamels. At 110mil PLUS top prospects PLUS the fact hes been awful in the AL, hes just a bad option. We don’t want Hamels in Boston for hat he will cost.
Sign Lestah for 140.
It’s basically 5/110 + Betts for Hamels or 6/130-140 for lester.
I don’t even know how this is a debate. Lester is that top of the rotation lefty the Red Sox desperately need.
Exactly. I want noting to do with Hamels, the Philies, or there aging roster
If they sign LESTAH, in Maine Jon is Lestah, just like lobster is Lobstah: it won’t be much help if they don’t sign a #2 then they have Lester, Shields, Kelly, Buch and an audition in ST for the 5 th, 6 th and 7 th starters–or Santana or Edwin Jackson or Liriano for a #3, if they go with 3 FA signings. Keep the everyday players to go to battle with.
If they don’t get three starters is it worth going after Miller?
I would sign in this order: Lestah, Miller, Shields and Santana.—that’s about $65 M–forget any other position player. That’s a haul…
Sign Lester, Scherzer, and Masterson deal Clay and a prospect for a 3b and a Bat. Then fill in the pen.
I don’t see it happening. Lester, another starter not named Scherzer (fa or trade), third baseman, reliever. Red Sox are going to be good if everyone is healthy.
I really liked to see Scherzer too. My fear is that of the kids that are coming I don’t see a 1 or 2 SP. They look like back end quality and maybe even pen.
Henry Owens has the upside of a number 2 for sure.
Actually the jury is out on Owens. His FB is low 90’s and many experts say it may not play in MLB.
Well he is a lefty so low 90’s velocity would still be good. He also is very tall and the higher delivery is known to make the ball look faster to opponents.
Then add the fact in the mid season top 50 by Baseball America he was number 15 overall and the number 2 LHP prospect and I think its hard to say that he doesn’t have number 2 upside especially with his absolute dominance of every level.
I’ve read his ceiling is a #2 and most slot him into 3-4-5 mode. The guys to watch are Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Sox. Owens, Ranaudo, De La Rosa,and Barnes seem to be looking like back end and pen help.
I’m sorry but how could Owens be destined for back end rotation work or the bull pen when he is a concensus top 25 prospect in baseball higher ranked then Johnshon and E-Rod. Just look at his numbers, look up some prospect rankings, and you will see he is a very risky prospect but one whose floor if he makes the big is a number 4 guy with a ceiling of an ace or number 2.
Read up on Owens the scouts are not convinced his stuff is top of the rotation at the MLB level. He hasn’t even developed a consistent 3rd pitch. He is going to be good but its like everyone think Clayton Kershaw is coming when its really Bobby Ojeda coming
The Red Sox have to sign at least one star player this offseason. They don’t have one anymore, and their fans are entitled.
Henry, Lucchiano and Werner run that team. It’s all about cable subscriptions and other cash flow.
I’d say Pedroia and Ortiz still qualify as star players for the Red Sox.
I’d say they were star players. That’s like saying that Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are star players for the Angels.
Lester for 6-144 with a vesting option, McCarthy for 3 45 with a vesting option, and Headley for 4 52. Trade Victorinio with half his salary paid off for a young SP prospect and entertain offers for Napoli (Craig/Nava at 1B). That is my ideal off season for the Red Sox.
The Tigers WERE interested in re-signing Scherzer, but apparently 7-years $140+ million wasn’t enough. Even Detroit knows when to walk.
They sent that message loud and clear when they acquired David Price.
I believe it was 6 years $144 million, not 7 years.
A family can’t live on that.
Scherzer will be back with the tigers or they will sign Lester.Also dont be surprised if they get miller and another left handed bat.Why? because they have the best owner in sports he will go all in this year
Lol. The Tigers are up to their necks with awful contracts. Theyre not signing any big name pitcher. Miller? Very possible.
The Tigers owner is desperate for a World Series and there arent any reports of the Tigers worrying about the luxury tax free.
I’ve heard that for years yet they still sign people EVERY YEAR. I doubt we get Max. Turning down that deal was a bad move. They will make some splash though.
Which contract is awful? None that I see right now. Nothing remotely close to the Giants two awful contracts or the Phillies multiple awful contracts.
Maybe you mean Verlander? Well he was #11 in AL fWAR for pitchers with over 200 innings. That means that he would still be a #2 or maybe even a #1 on many teams. Core Surgery recovery and bad luck made his “traditional numbers” look a lot worse than he was.
The thing with most of the Giants’ bad contracts is that they expire after 2015.
HMMM.
Scherzer and Lester, 2 $150MM contracts for pitchers in their 30’s are the most likely to live up to their contract?
If both get 6 year deals, I would say Lester provides better value over the course of the 6 years where as Scherzer would privide better valye for the first 3 years but would be considerably worse for the second half of his contract
I think that’s how it will go, but for Lester I don’t like it that much either. You are buying the absolute highest value he can go. Do that many teams buy a 30 year old having a career year like this? He has been a solid pitcher, but not at that price, he isn’t a dominant ace.
Part of me wants Lester to sign for a longer contract/more money than Scherzer just to stick it Boras.
I don’t get it–why wouldn’t the Tigers already pick up the option on Avila? It’s not like they have much in the way of catching depth, and you can’t beat getting him on a one-year $5.2M contract. Do they really think he isn’t going to get more than a $1.25M raise in arbitration?
The Tigers have two top prospects… it is the one position that they actually have depth.
They could free up some of that 5 million and pick up a much cheaper ( and maybe more productive all around) platoon guy for much less to go with what they already have in Holiday.
They didn’t pick up the option yet because they don’t have to. November 20th is the deadline. Why should they pick it up earlier than they have to? What if something happens to them or him before that?
It’s a fair point, but if the Tigers are ready to move on from Avila, trading him on a reasonable one-year contract to one of the many teams who could use him should be pretty easy.
As for the Tigers’ supposed depth at the catcher position, I don’t see it. There are a couple glove-first guys who haven’t shown they’re ready yet, but that’s about it. I’d rather go with an already-average catcher in 2015 as opposed to unproven catchers with a ceiling of being average.
Avila and Holaday were born the same year, so I don’t know how a Tigers fan could expect much more from Holaday than they’ve already seen. As for James McCann, he’s a decent prospect, but he’s far from a safe bet for being ready in 2015, especially with such an aggressive plate approach.
I’m not here to bash on the Tigers’ system. I’m just saying picking up Avila’s option looks like a no-brainer to me. Even if it makes more financial sense to ditch his salary, you might as well trade him for a low-level prospect instead of letting him leave the Tigers empty-handed.
When Johnny comes marching home (to Boston)
Hurrah! Hurrah!
We’ll give him a hearty welcome (in Boston)
Hurrah! Hurrah!
The men will cheer and the boys will shout,
The ladies they will all turn out
And we’ll all feel gay
When Johnny comes marching home (to Boston).
As usual, Boras’s logic has made me dizzy… but this time I get it and agree.
The Tigers could win 70% of their games by getting a true ace, v. only 54% without that ace. [Never mind that they got Price to replace Scherzer, assume that they actually need an ace for the sake of this argument].
OK then… why not sign LESTER then? Lester will likely be less expensive, had a better 2014, has much more playoff success, is the same age, is lefty which means he has a higher chance of pitching well 5+ years AND they can get him without the draft pick lost?
The only negative I can see in Lester v. Scherzer is that he is not a Boras client… or is that a negative?
Why not sign Lester?
Probably because even when he was being paid by Oakland all he could do was talk about going back to the Red Sox. The Red Sox owners need a star player to market. The NE fans want Lester.
Detroit’s position in this is to drive his asking price up.
7/$168MM and he comes to the Tigers. No doubt.
The Red Sox are trying to get away with a “home town discount” when they charge $75 for seats directly behind a pole that require you to turn your head 90 degrees for the entire game while sitting on a wooden seat the size of an elementary school “kiddie chair”.
Explain why they think that is OK?
[I think 6/$150MM (just a little more than they already offered Scherzer last year) will be all that the Tigers need because the Red Sox are that cheap… I just gave the 7 year number which would make it a “no brainer” for Lester]
“7/$168MM and he comes to the Tigers.”
Come ‘on. Does Ilich print money? If he did he would have re-signed Torii Hunter, trade an established player to get a quality CF, and then sign another star free agent to replace the established player.
It seems to me that for the last 2 years DD has been working to slow the growth of long term contracts.
1. He already offered Scherzer 6/$144MM as the STARTING OFFER. If Boras had countered with 7/$168, I think the Tigers would have accepted.
I do not think they would go that high with LESTER… but I do think they would consider 6/$150MM.
2. Pizza economics: $1 worth of ingredients + $1 worth of labor = $2 for pizza’s that can be sold at $6 * 1B…. and Little Ceasar’s does not even have to worry about delivery (its not part of their business model).
Have a nice day!
Mr. I will increase payroll this year but will not go over the payroll tax limit. They will need to stay $5-10 mill below it to allow for mid-season moves. Without a 4th OF, Lefty BP piece and utility guy I don’t see where the $$$ would be for Max or Lester unless they move someone to free up the $$$.
Hunter is too old.
I think the Tigers only need a mid-tier pitcher like McCarthy to be okay. They do not need a dream team of Cy Young winners in Price, Scherzer, and Verlander to win. Just look at the Royals and Giants.
Also, the Tigers are getting tighter with money. With Price expecting to be at $25 million in arbitration, how many big contracts do the fans expect them to have?
“….. how many big contracts do the fans expect them to have?”
Well, a few posters here seem to think that the Tiger payroll has no ceiling.
Where did you get that $25MM number?
MLB Trade Rumors predict that Price will get $18.9 mill. I think that is a lot closer to the real number than $25 mill. He gets $20 mill tops. I would like to see them fold 2015 into a 6 or 7 year deal for him
A lot. Like last year, its either now or never. Our owner has a lot of money. I wouldn’t be surprised with some more huge contracts.
The Red Sox don’t need Lester to market him, they need a top pitcher because the rotation is currently a bunch of question marks and bad choices.
I’m not being sarcastic…..
Professional sports teams are expensive to run. They need cash flow as owners are not in the business to lose money. When they can’t market winning, the typical approach is to talk about how good their young players are going to be. But that does not sell tickets, cable and merchandise in large markets (the KC Royals can do that, as can other small and mid market teams). They need a star or two – established names that the casual fan can get behind that year.
The situation with the Sox reminds me so much of when they wanted Mike Mussina as a free agent. The Yankees signed him the week the Red Sox sent out renewal subscriptions to season ticket holders – where the price jumped quite a bit. There was such an outcry in the area to do something that Duquette went out and overpaid for Manny. That placated the fans, and the teams offense was built around him batting in the middle of the line-up. I do not believe that after watching the team finish 25 games out of 1st place, and with no star players, that their fans today will accept that team unless at least one name player is signed – probably 2 or 3.
For as much atmospherics as Boras adds to any offseason, I really doubt there won’t be a very solid market Scherzer. But that market is only going to have a handful of shoppers in it. When Boras talks about a “two step process” what he’s saying is that Scherzer is so marvelous that teams will create an opening for him by trading a starter (presumably a decent on, because a replacement value starter would just be tossed) for whatever they could get, pay Scherzer’s price, and the pick. But it all starts with the number of teams willing and able to pony up a huge Scherzer contract.
Red Sox. Do NOT trade for Hamels. Just pay a little more for Lester or even Scherzer and keep your prospects untouched. No sense of trading prospects and taking on Hamels contract when you can overpay in Free Agency, especially with the amount of payroll room you have.