Could Jon Lester end up back with the Red Sox after all? “A well-connected baseball executive who has had conversations on the subject with the Red Sox” predicted to ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes that Lester would indeed re-sign with his old team. The exec thought the Sox could be willing to relax their policy against signing pitchers in their 30’s to long-term contracts by offering Lester a six-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. Unless Lester is still willing to give the Sox a bit of a discount, I would think it’ll take a lot more than six years/$120MM to outbid the field for Lester’s services — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Lester would receive, at minimum, a six-year, $147MM contract this winter. If the Red Sox were willing to give Lester a six/$120MM deal, I would think they would’ve just offered him that deal in extension talks last winter and avoided this entire situation.
Here’s some more from Fenway Park….
- The Red Sox have made calls about right-hander Justin Masterson and reliever Luke Gregerson, Edes reports in a separate item.
- Hanley Ramirez’s apparent willingness to play third base or even left field has gotten him on the Red Sox radar, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman linked Ramirez to the Sox a few days ago, though both he and Rosenthal note that Pablo Sandoval is Boston’s first choice to play third base.
- The Red Sox haven’t yet called about Ervin Santana but they spent “the whole year” scouting him, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets.
- Even before the Mets signed Michael Cuddyer, New York still didn’t have any interest in trading for Yoenis Cespedes, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.
$120MM/6 is a little easier to stomach for Lester, but wow people are very eager to overpay him. What he has done over the past 3 years a way better predictor than his contract year.
it will be $25 mil. minimum per year.
this should be of no surprise how much a guy costs in free agency.
It should at least look somewhat ok when you sign it though. Lester has always been healthy, but you really want to give a 31 year old $150MM that has good change have an era around 3.5 next year.
i’m not too familiar with many FA signings lately where the top free agents fit that criteria. that’s the cost of picking up a top guy in free agency. you can certainly want to pay less for a guy like him, but you simply won’t sign him. someone else is going to offer an enormous contract.
Well, 3.50 was probably above league average next year if this run environment continues. 40 qualified pitchers had an ERA under 3.50 in 2013.
If you are going after big ticket free agents you have to overpay to get them. They all get paid on past performance!
Why just the last 3 years? Why not take his last 6 years pitching in the AL east with a 3.47ERA? His numbers in his contract year are right in line with the rest of the elite pitchers’ stats this compared to previous years. Pitching was up, hitting was down.
Because 6 years ago is pretty irrelevant in predicting what he does in his future. 3 years is pretty good, because it often helps you see if one year was an outlier. He was dominant this year, but you really have to question what was happening in 2012 and 2013.
2012 was the Bobby Valentine show & it seemed like the entire team was a jumbled mess tripping over their own feet
Actually properly weighing 6 years with an aging curve..etc. is better than just taking the last 3 year. The bigger the sample, the better.
I personally guessed 6y/$150M. I’ll throw two comps: Cole Hamels and Zack Grienke out there. Hamels put up 12,5 fWAR in the three season prior to the contract extension. Grienke put up 13.2 fWAR. Jon Lester put up 13.6 fWAR. Lester’s value comes from that he has been a workhorse in the AL. 203IP with a 4.11 FIP in 2012 still put him at 3.2 fWAR or above $20M in value. Lester probably gets a similar deal to both those guys due to a slight age penalty.
I’m actually reasonably convinced Lester is “back in form”. The strikeout rate recovered by over 5% and the SwgStk% increased by 1.5%. The Curveball was back to 2009-2010 levels whiffs due to finding a more consistent release point and the cutter shows progress now than he has it breaking in the right direction(it was off in 2012-2013.
He isn’t Max Scherzer, but I think given the Hamels and Greinke contract, I would be comfortable to put Lester in that grouping. Especially with a quality framing catcher like Ross,McCann, or Martin.
Hamels and Greinke were better in the few years leading up to free agency if looking at FIP. They also had age on their side. They were both younger than Lester is right now.
saying that him having 3.2 WAR puts him above $20MM in value is just all wrong.
I’m using FIP based WAR, so it doesn’t really matter. Both were 1-2 years younger than Lester, but Lester gets a FA bump that Hamels didn’t have/
We figure a bare minimum of $6.5M/WAR for a player like Lester. That is at least $20.8M for 3.2 WAR. A more likely $7M/WAR for a top free agents puts it at $22.4M.
There is a difference between being worth it and being paid it. Plus time value of money is funky in baseball
You can’t just tack a fixed dollar amount for a single WAR. There is so much more that goes on, and you should never aim to have that.
Many many people would disagree. It isn’t perfect, but there is a basic model to follow because the industry seems to follow it to an extent.
Yes, but usually, it’s used to look back at what the value of 1 win above a replacement level player was last year, 3 years, 6 years, etc…
Rarely is it used to determine what someone should get paid in the future based on their previous WAR.
Lol. Do you really buy into that $/WAR thing? Are you telling me you would give a 2.0 WAR player (2.0 = MLB starter caliber) $14 million? Are you telling me you would give Delin Betances $22 million on a 1 year deal? (His fWAR was 3.2). Are you saying John Lackey’s 2011 season with a 6.41 ERA, the worst in Red Sox history , was worth about $11 Million? (Somehow he had a 1.6 WAR. A -1.6 WAR sounds more logical)
I see Lester as i see Sandoval.
Good player? No question.
About to be grossly overpaid?
For certain.
Most free agents are overpaid, but you need to sign them to upgrade your team. There will only be about 10 teams looking at the big ticket players.
Lester should get at least 6/145, he has no draft pick attached to him.
2012 was an aberration and should be discounted based on how he followed up the last 2 seasons. Once you ignore 2012 and look at the rest of his career $20M a year in the current market is totally reasonable and maybe even a bit of a bargain. While &120M may be an overpay at his age you’re really paying for the first 4 years with the last 2 being added as a sacrifice to get a deal done.
Scherzer is likely looking for 8/200M at least. In that light Lester at 6/120M is a lot more palatable.
If they got Lester and Masterson, that would go a long way to getting the rotation back to something decent. They still would need to trade for a number 2 starter, but that shouldn’t be too hard with the outfield/prospect depth
Masterson as your #2 for a season (then sign/trade for #2 next year) isn’t the worst thing in the world. He eats innings and other than this past year, he doesn’t pitch gems but he doesn’t get shelled either. Good enough to keep you in games consistently.
Masterson is done. He shouldn’t be brought in counting on him to be in the rotation.
I wouldnt say he’s done. He was injured for most of last year, and 2013 his best season. I wouldnt feel comfortable with him as my #2 but I would have no problem as a #4 or #5
How is Masterson a #2? He’s a #4-5 at best.
Read past the first 4 words…
adding to this Lester talk he took his house off the market. soo.
32 year old (next month) Ervin Santana? Really??? He had a decent year in the NL in a poor division. I thought they were trying to improve the rotation? I mean if you want him as a #3 that’s one thing, but I thought the Red Sox were solely looking for #1 and #2 in the rotation.
They said they were only looking for one top of the rotation guy. They need a 1 & 2, but they’re more likely to sign a 1 & 3.
1 in FA, I can see. Trades are a whole other story.
Trades are different sure, but just because you’re somewhat likely to get a better contract situation that way (Hamels wouldn’t be much better) doesn’t mean the prospects required don’t have a cost. They’re more likely to sign/trade for a number one and sign someone like Liriano, Masterson or McCarthy. They still have many needs to fill after pitching.
They have a need at pitcher #2, #3, and the entire bullpen aside from the hole at pitcher #1. I think Liriano, Masterson, or McCarthy make perfect sense as “a piece of the puzzle”.
The entire bullpen? Koji, Taz, Mujica, are set. Some combination of Layne (who looks like a lock), Wilson, Workman, Barnes, Hembree, et al and one outside signing. There is a need for a lefty to replace Breslow, but the entire bullpen doesn’t need to be replaced. Your 3 and 4 in the rotation are Buchholz and Kelly. Your five is whoever amongst Wester, Ranaudo, Workman, Owens, Escobar, Wirght, earns it out of spring training. Or possibly a veteran coming off a down year looking to rebound. Add a backup catcher and a left handed hitting third baseman and you’re done. You hardly need an entire bullpen.
Mujica is not a viable bullpen option (AKA Mujica pitch zone?), even though he’s signed. Buch can’t be counted on for a whole year, so another option is needed, and I doubt two rotation slots will fall to prospects. There also should be some hesitation about filling out the roster with prospects after last season. There are no lefty 3B available, so trading for one = less pitching prospects you just mentioned. Similar to Buch, you need insurance for Koji due to age and wear-down last year. This team has a lot of holes to fill. Luckily, they have the resources to fill them if they choose to do so.
I don’t think the bullpen is in as dire straits as you would like to portray. As for the pitching prospects, we could easily move several and fill the bullpen out with the rest. Whether you like it or not, Mujica’s second half solidified his role in the bullpen. There’s nothing else that can be done with him. He’ll fill the role he was signed for, as Koji insurance. 1.78 Era in the second half in 29 games. It’s hardly a priority.
True story, stay away from Santana, any good prospect we have could put up the numbers he projects in the AL East.
I think the Sox will go at least 6/ 140 for Lester and get him. I would go after McCarthy, Hammel , Volquez, or trade for a pitcher.
I agree with everything you said about pitching. If the sox want to turn this thing around, they’ll need an established #1 (Lester or Shields) and another #2-4 (ex. Liriano or Smardzja). They would be wise to stay away from Hamels as the cost is high and you would have to give up your entire farm. I wouldn’t be comfortable giving up Betts, Swihart, Owens and a few more to bring in a #1 pitcher when there is 3 on the FA market.
As far as hitting, the sox would be smart to bring in Headley. I’m not sold on Sandoval especially at his price of 6 years and over 100 million. The rest of the lineup should be good. However like any team, a big thing is health and if guys like Pedroia can’t stay healthy it could be another long year.
Shields for your ace is not turning around anything. As a #2, sure, I guess. As your best pitcher and your stopper? Goodbye MLB basement, hello MLB mediocrity.
He was the #1 pitcher for the Royals who made the World Series so to say he wouldn’t help is kind’ve a joke. In the past 4 years he’s average 14.5 wins with an era below 3.21 for 3 of those 4 seasons. That’s pretty impressive. Many of his numbers are actually better than Lester. Check the stats.
It’s also a joke to think he was good in the playoffs or that the Indians, White Sox, and Twins are the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. Also, that 27 year-old Korean SS FA hit 38HRs last year, better than all MLB SS. Check the stats.
Shields pitched in the AL East for 7 years with success so your point is invalid. Also the playoffs are such a small sample size. Kershaw has a 5.18 career era in the playoffs. Is he not a number 1 because he’s struggle there?
Shields ERA was hovering around 5 in the AL East… And he was in his prime then. Thanks, but no thanks. In regards to Kershaw, if you’re out to make the playoffs, get Kershaw and the Dodgers. If you’re trying to win it all, I have my doubts with him and the Dodgers.
EDIT: Just remembered too, Shields wasn’t even a #1 in Tampa…
2010 – #2 or 3 starter. Rays one and done in playoffs.
2011 – #2 or 3 starter. Rays one and done in playoffs.
2012 – “#1 starter”, Price was their ace and “#2”. No playoffs.
2013 – #1 starter. No playoffs.
2014 – #1 starter. Royals went to World Series, Shields nothing more than a spectator when the team needed him.
“Big Game James”. You can keep him if you want him as your #1.
So you’re saying James Shields alone won’t take you to the playoffs and you need a good team? Big shocker there.
You can say the same about Kershaw. Plus I never said James would win the Sox a World Series. However I did say that Shields along with another #2-4 starter would help improve this team. Who do you want, Lester? Yes Lester helped us win a World Series but with him as our ace, we only made the playoffs once in the past 4 years.
Shields post-season ERA:
2010 – 8.31
2011 – 12.60
2012 – DNP
2014 – 6.12
Additionally, the Rays won 90+ games every year but 2009 (84 wins) from 2008-2013. Guess they didn’t have much of a team…
Can’t have it both ways. He can’t get credit for the Royals making the World Series and then let him off the hook for his teams failing miserably other years. Did he take the team to the World Series, or the other way around?
So you’d take Lester over Kershaw?
In a single win or go home playoff game? Yes. Track record.
Yes, NL is not up to par. Put Kershaw in the Al we’ll se how good he really is.
You must have missed the A’s wild card game this year
Exactly. Track record. And I’ll take the much better, larger track record.
And you must have missed Kershaw’s playoff career so far. Was Kershaw’s 2013 in the playoffs Lester’s 2014 in the playoffs? Stats seem to reflect they’re both anomalies.
So you’d take Lester over Kershaw? Lester clearly has the larger track record.
No. I don’t care if it’s for a full season or one game (even against the Cardinals) I’ll take the better pitcher over the SSS success.
I really just don’t want Shields (or Ervin Santana as also mentioned in the article), to be honest. Personally, I’d like to pursue two or three of Masterson, Liriano, McCarthy, Cueto via trade, and Lester depending on the required bid.
Again your missing my point. Shields a long with another depth pitcher can push this team in the right direction. His regular season statistics can help any team make the playoffs as long as the whole team performs which also can be said about Lester. Now would I take Lester or Shields? The answer is yes because both have similar regular season stats with Lester obviously a better playoff pitcher. But if the sox decide not to pay Lester 140-150 Million for like 6 years, I wouldn’t be mad because those type of contracts usually turn to bite the team on the you know where.
The “new” way of the Red Sox doing business hasn’t done them any favors either (that World Series was lightning in a bottle, proven by the severe regression with the same team this year). Stephen Drew? Ryan Dempster? Sizemore? Capuano? Victorino? Signing Napoli to 1 year originally? You can waste the same amount of money on multiple Tier 2 players as on a Tier 1 player. This philosophy loosely ties to the Patriots – Broncos right now if you want to compare to another sport. Pats are always in the playoffs because of going after Tier 2 talent for the most part. Broncos are building to win within a given window. Big difference between the Pats and Red Sox is the Pats play in a puddle of a division, where the Red Sox actually have quality competition to even get to the playoffs.
Only one of the pitchers you mentioned is a #1-2 and that’s Cueto. To get Cueto, say goodbye to some of our top prospects. Also I wouldn’t trust Masterson to provide the sox any support since he got shelled last year. Maybe he can have a comeback year but he’s a #5 starter right now at best. I like Liriano but his injury history is worrisome and if we don’t get a top rotation guy, we’re not going to win period. Santana shouldn’t be an option because the guy can’t pitch at Yankee Stadium. If the sox can somehow include Cespedes in the deal for Cueto without given up both Betts and Swihart, I would do it but I think the Reds will ask for a lot.
the reason i feel they’re number 1 priority is now Lester is because, they wanted Shields at 4 years on a high aav but now he wants 5. Hamels has the sox on his no trade not to block it but to make the red sox pick up his option making it a 5 year deal plus prospects. Lester makes the most sense,