Could Jon Lester end up back with the Red Sox after all? “A well-connected baseball executive who has had conversations on the subject with the Red Sox” predicted to ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes that Lester would indeed re-sign with his old team. The exec thought the Sox could be willing to relax their policy against signing pitchers in their 30’s to long-term contracts by offering Lester a six-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. Unless Lester is still willing to give the Sox a bit of a discount, I would think it’ll take a lot more than six years/$120MM to outbid the field for Lester’s services — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Lester would receive, at minimum, a six-year, $147MM contract this winter. If the Red Sox were willing to give Lester a six/$120MM deal, I would think they would’ve just offered him that deal in extension talks last winter and avoided this entire situation.
Here’s some more from Fenway Park….
- The Red Sox have made calls about right-hander Justin Masterson and reliever Luke Gregerson, Edes reports in a separate item.
- Hanley Ramirez‘s apparent willingness to play third base or even left field has gotten him on the Red Sox radar, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman linked Ramirez to the Sox a few days ago, though both he and Rosenthal note that Pablo Sandoval is Boston’s first choice to play third base.
- The Red Sox haven’t yet called about Ervin Santana but they spent “the whole year” scouting him, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets.
- Even before the Mets signed Michael Cuddyer, New York still didn’t have any interest in trading for Yoenis Cespedes, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.
$120MM/6 is a little easier to stomach for Lester, but wow people are very eager to overpay him. What he has done over the past 3 years a way better predictor than his contract year.
it will be $25 mil. minimum per year.
this should be of no surprise how much a guy costs in free agency.
It should at least look somewhat ok when you sign it though. Lester has always been healthy, but you really want to give a 31 year old $150MM that has good change have an era around 3.5 next year.
i’m not too familiar with many FA signings lately where the top free agents fit that criteria. that’s the cost of picking up a top guy in free agency. you can certainly want to pay less for a guy like him, but you simply won’t sign him. someone else is going to offer an enormous contract.
Well, 3.50 was probably above league average next year if this run environment continues. 40 qualified pitchers had an ERA under 3.50 in 2013.
If you are going after big ticket free agents you have to overpay to get them. They all get paid on past performance!
Why just the last 3 years? Why not take his last 6 years pitching in the AL east with a 3.47ERA? His numbers in his contract year are right in line with the rest of the elite pitchers’ stats this compared to previous years. Pitching was up, hitting was down.
Because 6 years ago is pretty irrelevant in predicting what he does in his future. 3 years is pretty good, because it often helps you see if one year was an outlier. He was dominant this year, but you really have to question what was happening in 2012 and 2013.
2012 was the Bobby Valentine show & it seemed like the entire team was a jumbled mess tripping over their own feet
Actually properly weighing 6 years with an aging curve..etc. is better than just taking the last 3 year. The bigger the sample, the better.
I personally guessed 6y/$150M. I’ll throw two comps: Cole Hamels and Zack Grienke out there. Hamels put up 12,5 fWAR in the three season prior to the contract extension. Grienke put up 13.2 fWAR. Jon Lester put up 13.6 fWAR. Lester’s value comes from that he has been a workhorse in the AL. 203IP with a 4.11 FIP in 2012 still put him at 3.2 fWAR or above $20M in value. Lester probably gets a similar deal to both those guys due to a slight age penalty.
I’m actually reasonably convinced Lester is “back in form”. The strikeout rate recovered by over 5% and the SwgStk% increased by 1.5%. The Curveball was back to 2009-2010 levels whiffs due to finding a more consistent release point and the cutter shows progress now than he has it breaking in the right direction(it was off in 2012-2013.
He isn’t Max Scherzer, but I think given the Hamels and Greinke contract, I would be comfortable to put Lester in that grouping. Especially with a quality framing catcher like Ross,McCann, or Martin.
Hamels and Greinke were better in the few years leading up to free agency if looking at FIP. They also had age on their side. They were both younger than Lester is right now.
saying that him having 3.2 WAR puts him above $20MM in value is just all wrong.
I’m using FIP based WAR, so it doesn’t really matter. Both were 1-2 years younger than Lester, but Lester gets a FA bump that Hamels didn’t have/
We figure a bare minimum of $6.5M/WAR for a player like Lester. That is at least $20.8M for 3.2 WAR. A more likely $7M/WAR for a top free agents puts it at $22.4M.
There is a difference between being worth it and being paid it. Plus time value of money is funky in baseball
You can’t just tack a fixed dollar amount for a single WAR. There is so much more that goes on, and you should never aim to have that.
Many many people would disagree. It isn’t perfect, but there is a basic model to follow because the industry seems to follow it to an extent.
Yes, but usually, it’s used to look back at what the value of 1 win above a replacement level player was last year, 3 years, 6 years, etc…
Rarely is it used to determine what someone should get paid in the future based on their previous WAR.
Lol. Do you really buy into that $/WAR thing? Are you telling me you would give a 2.0 WAR player (2.0 = MLB starter caliber) $14 million? Are you telling me you would give Delin Betances $22 million on a 1 year deal? (His fWAR was 3.2). Are you saying John Lackey’s 2011 season with a 6.41 ERA, the worst in Red Sox history , was worth about $11 Million? (Somehow he had a 1.6 WAR. A -1.6 WAR sounds more logical)
I see Lester as i see Sandoval.
Good player? No question.
About to be grossly overpaid?
For certain.
Most free agents are overpaid, but you need to sign them to upgrade your team. There will only be about 10 teams looking at the big ticket players.
Lester should get at least 6/145, he has no draft pick attached to him.
2012 was an aberration and should be discounted based on how he followed up the last 2 seasons. Once you ignore 2012 and look at the rest of his career $20M a year in the current market is totally reasonable and maybe even a bit of a bargain. While &120M may be an overpay at his age you’re really paying for the first 4 years with the last 2 being added as a sacrifice to get a deal done.
Scherzer is likely looking for 8/200M at least. In that light Lester at 6/120M is a lot more palatable.
If they got Lester and Masterson, that would go a long way to getting the rotation back to something decent. They still would need to trade for a number 2 starter, but that shouldn’t be too hard with the outfield/prospect depth
Masterson as your #2 for a season (then sign/trade for #2 next year) isn’t the worst thing in the world. He eats innings and other than this past year, he doesn’t pitch gems but he doesn’t get shelled either. Good enough to keep you in games consistently.
Masterson is done. He shouldn’t be brought in counting on him to be in the rotation.
I wouldnt say he’s done. He was injured for most of last year, and 2013 his best season. I wouldnt feel comfortable with him as my #2 but I would have no problem as a #4 or #5
How is Masterson a #2? He’s a #4-5 at best.
Read past the first 4 words…
adding to this Lester talk he took his house off the market. soo.
32 year old (next month) Ervin Santana? Really??? He had a decent year in the NL in a poor division. I thought they were trying to improve the rotation? I mean if you want him as a #3 that’s one thing, but I thought the Red Sox were solely looking for #1 and #2 in the rotation.
They said they were only looking for one top of the rotation guy. They need a 1 & 2, but they’re more likely to sign a 1 & 3.
1 in FA, I can see. Trades are a whole other story.
Trades are different sure, but just because you’re somewhat likely to get a better contract situation that way (Hamels wouldn’t be much better) doesn’t mean the prospects required don’t have a cost. They’re more likely to sign/trade for a number one and sign someone like Liriano, Masterson or McCarthy. They still have many needs to fill after pitching.
They have a need at pitcher #2, #3, and the entire bullpen aside from the hole at pitcher #1. I think Liriano, Masterson, or McCarthy make perfect sense as “a piece of the puzzle”.
The entire bullpen? Koji, Taz, Mujica, are set. Some combination of Layne (who looks like a lock), Wilson, Workman, Barnes, Hembree, et al and one outside signing. There is a need for a lefty to replace Breslow, but the entire bullpen doesn’t need to be replaced. Your 3 and 4 in the rotation are Buchholz and Kelly. Your five is whoever amongst Wester, Ranaudo, Workman, Owens, Escobar, Wirght, earns it out of spring training. Or possibly a veteran coming off a down year looking to rebound. Add a backup catcher and a left handed hitting third baseman and you’re done. You hardly need an entire bullpen.
Mujica is not a viable bullpen option (AKA Mujica pitch zone?), even though he’s signed. Buch can’t be counted on for a whole year, so another option is needed, and I doubt two rotation slots will fall to prospects. There also should be some hesitation about filling out the roster with prospects after last season. There are no lefty 3B available, so trading for one = less pitching prospects you just mentioned. Similar to Buch, you need insurance for Koji due to age and wear-down last year. This team has a lot of holes to fill. Luckily, they have the resources to fill them if they choose to do so.
I don’t think the bullpen is in as dire straits as you would like to portray. As for the pitching prospects, we could easily move several and fill the bullpen out with the rest. Whether you like it or not, Mujica’s second half solidified his role in the bullpen. There’s nothing else that can be done with him. He’ll fill the role he was signed for, as Koji insurance. 1.78 Era in the second half in 29 games. It’s hardly a priority.
True story, stay away from Santana, any good prospect we have could put up the numbers he projects in the AL East.