Here’s the latest on the 2015 draft, via a massive post from FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel.
- McDaniel notes that there isn’t much top-level talent in this draft (an opinion shared by many analysts), and says that the industry is unclear what the Diamondbacks will do with, or even how they’re thinking about, the first pick in the draft.
- The Astros, who have the second overall pick, appear to be focused on high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, UC-Santa Barbara pitcher Dillon Tate, and Vanderbilt infielder Dansby Swanson, who McDaniel ranks the top three prospects in the draft.
- Red Sox GM Ben Cherington was seen on ESPNU last night watching Swanson and Vanderbilt pitcher Carson Fulmer. The Red Sox pick seventh. They’ve also been connected to LSU shortstop Alex Bregman. McDaniel ranks Bregman the fourth-best prospect in the draft, Fulmer the seventh.
- Since the draft lacks much top talent, one possibility is that many teams will draft second-round-type players in the first round and save money against their bonus pools for later picks in the draft.
- McDaniel ranks Astros unsigned 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken the No. 24 prospect in the draft, noting that many in the industry feel that Aiken’s arm issues go beyond Tommy John surgery and that he could have further injury problems later in his career.
Hopefully one of the top prospects fall to the Sox i.e Tate, Swanson
The industry might not know what the Diamondbacks are going to do with the top pick, but I think a reasonable assumption would be that they are going to mess it up in some humorous way.
I’m starting to get the feeling that Dave Stewart has his heart set against doing anything the easy way when it comes to running the Diamondbacks.
I think teams are going to snatch up college bats this year, they’re going to fly off the board. Like more than usual…it doesn’t help that this draft kinda sucks.
I’m hoping for Justin Hooper to the Cubs. He seems like the freak this year.
Anyone know anything about Isiah Gilliam as he stands now?
Really excited for the Yankees draft this year. A lot of money and some good picks. No idea what they are going to do with this year though.
Aiken projects to fall right into their lap.
I would be ecstatic if Aiken fell to the Angels. Injuries can be tough, but he obviously has elite stuff to go at the top of the draft with Rodon and Kolek on the board.
I would be a very happy Dodger fan if Aiken fell to 24. The extra $800K from Bal comp pick could allow more flexibility to go over slot.
Interesting to see Aiken’s ranking so low. He would be a great pick-up for anybody in the top 25. I figured he wouldn’t get past the top 10, more than likely going to the Twins or Red Sox, but perhaps that is unlikely. I still think the Red Sox might pick him up if they can. They need a high-ceiling starting pitcher prospect. They have enough guys with high-floors that they can afford to use their first pick on Aiken.
He just had TJ and projects to have some injury issues throughout his career. That’ll scare some teams away, much like the Astros last year.
I suppose some deliveries are cleaner than others but I think anyone who throws a baseball as hard as they can thousands of times a year are probably going to be injury risks. There’s not many Mark Buerhles out there
As Dr. Jobe said (paraphrased) throwing is good, throwing hard all the time is bad.
Average shelf life of TJS pitcher is about 8 years. 20% never return, 13% make it back for at least one game in MLB and 67% make it back for at least 10 games in the season after.
it doesn’t have much to do with mechanics. Its the anomaly of his arm. His ligament was smaller then normal.
The source article indicates that Aiken will either be top 12-15 or will ~40. The actual ranking of 24, is just “splitting the difference”. It all depends on the medical reports.
Teams in the 20s like the Tigers and Dodgers will not really be in the running for him given the two scenarios.
And what scenario is that?
Either he is like Giolito (Nationals) and will likely recover OK… or there are other issues that make him a much bigger risk.
If its the first, he still could be a top 10 pick. If not, he could drop all the way into the 40s. Doubtful he gets picked in the 20s (where Dodgers and Tigers have picks).
Yeah, but you really never know. Even if he has much bigger health question some team might just say that his big-time potential makes up for the other questions. Especially in a weak draft where Aiken is one of the few with top-notch potential.
I bet the braves take Aiken if he falls to them, seems to fit their bill
I’m glad to see that the Astros were justified in cancelling the pre-draft deal with Aiken. Players (and their “advisors”) should be required to let teams look at medicals before the draft.
Not sure why Jake Elliott gets no love is he still a year away from teams wanting to draft him?
My bad hes still a sophomore.
Who might the Braves draft?