JUNE 22: The bonus is for $2,513,280, Callis tweets.
JUNE 19: 5:25pm: The precise bonus value is not yet known but will be above the slot allotment, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports on Twitter.
11:10am: The Indians announced the signing of Aiken, noting that he’s already completed a medical evaluation with the team and is rehabbing at the club’s Spring Training complex in Goodyear, Ariz.
11:00am: The Indians have signed left-hander Brady Aiken, the No. 17 overall pick in this year’s draft, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (on Twitter). Terms of the bonus are unknown, although the 17th overall slot comes with a value of $2,393,600, according to Baseball America.
Aiken, of course, has been in baseball headlines for more than a year. Selected with the first overall pick by the Astros in the 2014 draft, Aiken was widely expected to sign and even headed to Houston to take a physical and finalize his contract. However, the Astros came away from the physical feeling uneasy about the status of the ulnar collateral ligament in Aiken’s left elbow and reduced their bonus offer from roughly $6.5MM to $5MM. Aiken elected not to sign and in the offseason enrolled at the IMG Academy in Florida in order to be eligible again for the 2015 draft.
Aiken’s season at IMG didn’t last long, however. He left his first start of the season, stating afterward that “something felt a little wrong” in his throwing elbow, and further tests revealed that he had torn the UCL that had given the Astros pause. Aiken underwent Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter.
The injury naturally caused Aiken’s draft stock to drop a bit, but the mystery surrounding his elbow may have caused his stock to slip a bit further. Multiple reports headed into the draft indicated that there was general concern surrounding Aiken’s elbow because his Tommy John surgery and UCL were both said to be abnormal. Houston was said last summer to be concerned by general size of Aiken’s UCL — said to be smaller than a standard elbow ligament — and the difference from that of a straightforward Tommy John case created genuine befuddlement among draft experts as to where he might be selected and which team might take the gamble on Aiken’s highly talented left arm.
Cleveland stepped up and took that gamble, and the potential reward they face if Aiken is fully healthy and can have a normal career moving forward is sizable. Aiken was widely labeled as one of the top talents in each of the past two draft classes. Despite the injury, Aiken was ranked 17th in this year’s draft by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, 22nd by Baseball America, 24th by MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis) and 27th by Keith Law of ESPN.com.
Aiken sits in the low 90s with his fastball and has topped out at 96-97 mph, and McDaniel labels three of his pitches — fastball, curveball and changeup — as future plus pitches, giving each an average-or-better grade at present despite his age. Mayo and Callis praised his advanced command and a curveball that added more power and depth late in Aiken’s prep career. BA termed Aiken a “standout athlete,” noting that the former high school quarterback also comes with an ideal 6’3″, 210-pound frame. ESPN noted that as good as Aiken’s pure stuff is, his delivery is one of the cleanest they’ve seen out of a high school pitcher in quite some time (making the injury concerns all the more confounding).
My guess is around $1.9 million
Should have taken the 5 MM
Well yeah, but at least he didn’t pull a Matt Harrington.
“ESPN noted that as good as Aiken’s pure stuff is, his delivery is one of the cleanest they’ve seen out of a high school pitcher in quite some time (making the injury concerns all the more confounding).” It’s not just the delivery…it’s overuse….MLB has an affiliate site called Pitch Smart which they developed after doing some studies (with more ongoing) to figure out why TJS and other injuries have spiked so much since the mid-90s. The very first thing they cite that will influence the likelihood of arm injuries is quoted here. “The single most important factor is daily, weekly and annual overuse.” Aiken is from SD CA and I would be surprised if he did not pitch almost year-round. My nephew was drafted in 2003 by the Expos. The scouts been following him since he was 12 years old. He was offered a very reasonable signing bonus because of his mid 90s FB in HS but they did suggest he get a bit more seasoning at a community college because he did not pitch his senior year in HS (he was a great pitcher but a lousy student…lol). He was considered a draft follow at that point and before he could ever sign he ended up with both elbow and shoulder problems and eventually decided not to pursue a baseball career. He pitched almost year-round from the time he was 10 years old playing on multiple teams and in multiple leagues as well as All-Star Tournaments etc. I am thoroughly convinced, not just from his experience (that was merely an example) that overuse by young pitchers in the past several decades is the main cause of the jump in injuries. Just consider that before 1996 the most TJS surgeries done in one year was 2. They knew how to diagnose it, they knew how to treat it. There just were not as many torn UCL’s because there was not as much overuse.
Absolutely….you can date it to the beginning of the showcase and sport specialization movement. Coupled to the post Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens effect. I was actually thinking about rotator cuff the other day. Remember when those were rampant? Don’t seem to see as many anymore
To loosely quote the late Dr. Jobe…. Throwing is good, throwing hard all the time is very bad and throwing a curveball properly is not hard on the elbow even for youngsters but what is bad is youngsters not being shown the proper way to throw breaking pitches, that is what hurts the elbow.
I was a top level pitcher in my day..attended a major NCAA baseball program. I didn’t start pitching until I was 11. Two of my boys now are 5 and 6…if they were to start playing baseball theyd already be behind the curve locally…and I’m in a cold weather state. Kids their age are already pitching.
Why go over slot? Is there an actual chance he’d not sign again and go back in the draft next season? He already lost about 3m.
Great question. It’s a shame Aiken didn’t take the ‘stros offer last year but it is surprising to see the Indians offered overslot money. I’d have offered something like 30% below slot and worked from there.
Absolutely, he still has 3 years of college eligibility and possibly 4 with a red shirt.
No he doesn’t. He was clearly and publicly declared to have representation.
Incorrect, he can still play college ball, he was never a member of the NCAA.
I should say “could” – since he’s signed now.
tuna411 is correct. He had to attend IMG because of his eligibility issues this past season. I guess if he wanted to rehab that Tommy John on his own dime using non professional facilities… That’d be his call….he could come back next year with a stronger draft class and fall further down the pipe.
He attended IMG because he wanted to reenter the draft this season and it was late in the process…it was an easy choice.
High risk, high reward.
Giolito fell and now looks like a future true ace. Aiken has talent and if he stays healthy, Cleveland could pair him with Kluber and Bauer for wow.
Aiken was also a QB…so he took some reps throwing a football from a position that put his elbow under stress.