As the offseason approaches, we continue to outline the potential goals of this season’s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Padres, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Reds and Phillies, and the next team in line is the Miami Marlins.
Before the 2015 season, the Marlins had a splashy winter in which they extended Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich and acquired Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Ichiro Suzuki, among others. But they suffered through injuries and quickly fired manager Mike Redmond, and now they’re 20 games below .500, in third place only because they’re in a very weak NL East division. Here are a few areas the club could address this offseason.
1. Solidify leadership positions. After dismissing Redmond, the Marlins made the unusual decision of moving GM Dan Jennings to the manager position. The move wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t a rousing success either. This month, the team fired pro scout Mickey White and reassigned vice president of player personnel Craig Weissmann, both of whom were close with Jennings.
Now, the Marlins want to replace Jennings as manager, and although he reportedly has a standing offer to return as GM, it’s unclear whether he’ll want to return, potentially with less power than he once had. The Phillies also reportedly could consider hiring Jennings, and the Mariners might be another possibility. It might be, then, that the Marlins could replace both their manager and their GM this winter (although they could simply promote assistant GM Mike Berger to fill the latter role).
2. Improve the farm system. The Marlins did take a recent step to improve their minor league system by hiring former Pirates special assistant Marc DelPiano to oversee it. Otherwise, it will admittedly take longer than an offseason to address their prospect pipeline.
Still, any upgrades they can make this winter, either by acquiring minor leaguers or by improving their development processes, would help. As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald noted last week, it’s been an awful year for the Marlins’ minor league system — several of their top affiliates finished in last place, and their system appears to be sorely lacking in impact talent beyond 2014 second overall pick Tyler Kolek (who himself didn’t have a very good season). “[Y]ou go beyond [Kolek], and you get to guys who are not top 200- or 300-type guys,” Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper told Spencer.
Contending in 2016 will probably be a longshot for the Marlins, so one potential option is to be proactive about upgrading their base of young talent this winter. Last offseason, for example, the Braves added Arodys Vizcaino, Tyrell Jenkins, Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, Manny Banuelos, Rio Ruiz and others to their system. The Marlins don’t have the trade chips the Braves did … unless, of course, Miami’s front office is willing to get crazy and trade Stanton, Jose Fernandez or Gordon. (Stanton has a no-trade clause.) If not, they could make smaller trades (dealing someone like Prado and replacing him with Derek Dietrich might make sense) and attempt to add talent in the Rule 5 Draft. As a baseline, they probably shouldn’t trade from the shallow pool of minor league talent they currently have.
3. Develop a long-term plan. The Marlins’ most recent attempts to contend through the acquisitions of veterans have failed — last offseason didn’t work, and the 2011-12 offseason (when they brought in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and manager Ozzie Guillen to drum up interest in their new ballpark) didn’t either. Now, they’ll need to decide whether the third time will be the charm, and if not, what path to pursue.
While actually contending is a long shot, some acquisitions of veterans might actually make sense, even if they only might lead to a .500-type season. The Marlins have two franchise talents, Stanton and Fernandez, under control for the long term, and they can reasonably expect better health from both next season. They can also hope for more from talented young outfielders Yelich and Marcell Ozuna (assuming Ozuna returns). Barring a trade, Gordon will be back after a strong season, along with some capable role players, including Prado, shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria, catcher J.T. Realmuto, and relievers A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps. In fact, there are hints of competence or upside at every position on the diamond (although a bit of additional bench depth would help them).
What the Marlins need most in the short term is starting pitching. Their young starters behind Fernandez didn’t take significant steps forward this season, and the Marlins’ collection of starting pitching now consists of a number of hurlers who look like placeholders (such as Tom Koehler, Brad Hand, Justin Nicolino and Adam Conley) alongside wild cards Jarred Cosart, Jose Urena and the injured Henderson Alvarez. This offseason’s free agent market is rich in pitching, and acquiring a couple starters to bolster the rotation might give the Marlins a chance to be competitive next season.
They probably ought to avoid trades of young players for veteran pitchers, however, unless they come very cheaply. Last offseason’s trades of Nathan Eovaldi to New York (in the Prado deal) and two young players to Cincinnati (in the Latos deal) were arguably small mistakes that the Marlins shouldn’t repeat. Regardless of their offseason moves, it would be very surprising if they won, say, 90 games in 2016. So the long term needs to be their top priority. Their most obvious route to long-term success is to build around Stanton and Fernandez, but they could also potentially consider the less obvious route of trading them. Either way, they appear to have a long swim ahead, one that might be tough to navigate for notoriously impatient owner Jeffrey Loria.
“They probably ought to avoid trades for veteran pitchers, however, unless they come very cheaply”
That would seem to leave acquiring starters via free agency, and I can’t imagine free agents are too enthusiastic about signing with Miami. With pitchers, though, they could at least emphasize their stadium’s favorable park factors. Someone like Ian Kennedy– who has largely struggled with giving up HRs this year– would probably appreciate pitching in Miami.
But Ian Kennedy’s current park (Petco) is among the best at holding down home runs, so he’s probably not the best example.
I thought of that too, but oddly enough, Petco pales in comparison to Miami in suppressing HRs.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
As reported earier: “You go beyond Kolek, and you get to guys who are not top 200- or 300-type guys,” says BA’s J.J. Cooper. “I have talked to scouts who struggle to name a player or two they project as future regulars from the Marlins’ position-player prospects.”
Maybe if the marlins hadn’t given away all of their young depth in terrible trades, and maybe if they didn’t make ridiculous choices in the early rounds of the last 2 drafts, this would be different. Look at the roster, subtract Dee Gordon and Miguel Rojas, and add Andrew Heaney, Anthony DeSclafani, Enrique Hernandez, and Austin Barnes. Then consider the added years of control with those players, as well as the money the Marlins SHOULD have to spend, with so little payroll committed. This should have been a good year, after a good building year in 2014, and this offseason should have been the time to add to our core with a free agent or 2, but instead, we’re trying to recover from the incredibly dumb moves made in this past year, and we have no depth, which is why injuries played such a big part in our season, and what we can rely on next year (Fernandez durability for the full season, Alvarez coming back from shoulder surgery, and Cosart being a #2-3 SP or a borderline backend of the rotation/better off in the bullpen guy).
Now we have the confirmed reports about Ozuna, which we kind-of already knew, but the wording of Loria being “disappointed in him” is so typical Loria. The Marlins need at least 2 SPs and 3 bullpen arms, including someone that can get lefties out, and another arm that can pitch at the backend of the bullpen, as well as a new manager that doesn’t make moves that make you want to rip your eyes out. I like John Lackey at 2 years, Scott Kazmir at 4 (or maybe a Brett Anderson for 2 years with an option), Oliver Perez at 3, among other options that should be available in our price range (though I don’t see that happening)…So now Ozuna’s being moved for something we just gave away. Personally, if we go this route, and don’t spend a bit of the money we should have available to spend, with so little money committed, we might as well retool and trade Ozuna, Gordon, Prado, Koehler, AJ Ramos, Bryan Morris, Mike Dunn, David Phelps, and Brad Hand and hope to get lucky with some lower tier free agents and health in 2016, and target 2017 and 2018 for contention. The mistakes made in the last year, with bad moves, as well as injuries that impact us beyond this season, as well as a lost year in our minor league system, has left us with a situation with no organizational depth, and in need to once again revamp our system
Lackey isn’t going to sign in Miami.
You’d give 3 years to Oliver Perez?
I agree with retooling but you might as well keep some of the young guys. Keep Ramos and Hand. I’d keep Ozuna too, no point in selling low on him. Prado could bring back something nice, as could Gordon.
I would assume Perez will get 3 years, and we need someone that can get lefties out in the bullpen desperately. I would be wary of doing so, but that’s what we’ve seen guys like him get recently…
Personally, I would prefer to add to what we have. I’m not saying I want them to trade Ozuna or Ramos. I’m just saying what I think they’ll do with Ozuna, and if they’re going to do that, they might as well retool and move all of those guys. They’re pretty much the only pieces we have with any value
The Oliver Perez with an ERA of 4.14 that is 34 years old?
I haven’t looked at his numbers in a couple of weeks. If that’s where the ERA currently sits, it must have been a really bad couple of weeks. His age isn’t as much of a concern considering the ages of a lot of lefty specialists.
It doesn’t necessarily have to be him. I just want someone that can get lefties out in our bullpen
I think they know they aren’t going to compete with what they have. I’d trade Prado, Gordon and i’d listen on Fernandez. If I got blown away on Fernandez (or Stanton, for that matter) I’d atleast consider.
Gordon could fit in with a few teams. Imagine a Donaldson/EE/Joey Bats/Tulo with Revere and Gordon hitting infront of them.
Prado would make sense for KC. Would take the Zobrist spot on the team.
The marlins are one owner away from another World Series
The Marlins have the pieces to win, they just need to get some of the dead weight off of their roster and fill those spots with young, cheap, high upside type guys. Injuries have killed them as well, but still, a lineup consisting of Ozuna, Stanton, Yelich, Hech, Realmuto and Dee Gordon and a rotation consisting of Alvarez and Fernandez should have success.
Agree.
They’ve still got multiple years of Stanton and Fernandez if they want them. Fans aren’t showing up and they aren’t spending money anyway, so get some decent player development people in place, let it take however long it takes, and do it right for once. This yo-yo of fake rebuilding and fake contending is disgusting.
Attendance is up from last year, so that’s not really true. But you can’t blame fans for not showing up in droves when its ownership essentially screws them over.
I don’t think the Marlins are in nearly as bad shape as this piece paints them to be. Full seasons from Stanton + Fernandez and the addition of another frontline SP probably put them well over .500 this season. They aren’t that far off.
The key word is “healthy.” When everyone is healthy, you’re right, this is at least a .500 team. But the problem is when the injury bug hits, they don’t have the necessary depth to compensate.
The Marlins need to pick a long term plan and stick with it. Buy big in 2012, sell everything in 2013, wait it out in 2014, trade everything and “win now” in 2015…