As we continue working our way through the major needs of non-contenders with the offseason in sight, we’ll turn our attention to the Padres. San Diego entered the year with big expectations after a volatile winter under new GM A.J. Preller. Things haven’t worked out as planned, but the Friars nevertheless stood pat at the trade deadline. San Diego is as unpredictable as any organization in baseball right now, but here are a few areas the team might look to address:
1. Get the talent pipeline flowing. Preller came to San Diego with a reputation as a hard-working, discerning evaluator of talent who could dig up young players at good values. President/CEO Mike Dee explained the premise before the season: “But [Preller] said you don’t have to choose between one or the other. You can have both. You can have a strong pursuit of amateur and international talent and still add impact players. … I’m excited to see the second half of what he’s known for [in the international market].”
One year into Preller’s tenure, the club’s farm is lagging — even as the team struggles at the major league level. As things stand, the organization has just one top-100 prospect (Hunter Renfroe, #76 per MLB.com). The Padres didn’t have a first-round draft pick last year after sacrificing their first two choices in the James Shields signing and the Craig Kimbrel trade. And while the organization says it’s happy with its haul of July 2 prospects, it didn’t land Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, or any of the other most-hyped Latin American players on this year’s international market.
We’ve already seen Preller trade away a good portion of the upper-level talent he inherited. Now, he’ll need to show that he can successfully re-fill the system. The team appears to be headed for a top-ten draft pick, and can use qualifying offers to Justin Upton and (potentially) Ian Kennedy to add more selections and spending capacity. That’s a nice start, but more creative measures — such as trading a player like Kimbrel, searching the trade market for competitive balance picks and international signing pools, and/or looking for the next Touki Toussaint deal — may be needed.
2. Sort out the middle infield. Dating from the start of the 2011 season, the Padres rank dead last in major league baseball in middle infielder fWAR. The bulk of the positive wins above replacement from that stretch date to 2013, when Jedd Gyorko and Everth Cabrera both had solid campaigns. Other than that, San Diego has received basically replacement-level production from both the second base and shortstop positions for the last five years.
The organization is currently batting around some less-than-optimal possibilities as the offseason looms. Gyorko has looked re-born at the plate in recent months, and the team seems pleased with the initial returns on an experimental move to shortstop. But it would be brave to go into a full season on the assumption he’ll hold down that position, especially given the failed effort to use Wil Myers in center field this year. San Diego currently has the league’s worst defense, by measure of UZR/150 innings, and asking Gyorko (never a highly-regarded defender elsewhere in the infield) to step in at short seems a tall order.
That’s all the more true given that the organization isn’t exactly overflowing with talent elsewhere in the infield. Other players in the mix at second and third are Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte, and Will Middlebrooks. While some combination of that group should passably hold down those positions, it looks like a stretch for it to cover the four-through-six slots in a contending infield.
With this year’s Clint Barmes–Alexi Amarista pairing having fallen flat, and Trea Turner dealt away, an outside shortstop addition may well be necessary if expectations are to contend. San Diego can look to a trade market with several promising possibilities or pursue a group of free agents that includes some interesting-but-aging veterans who could be had on short-term deals.
3. Balance the lineup. Improving on the defensive side is one way that San Diego can add balance and situational flexibility to its roster, but even more pressing may be the need for left-right balance in the lineup. Aside from the switch-hitting Solarte, who has fairly even platoon splits over his two big league seasons, the team has a dearth of left-handed bats amongst its regulars.
There are some lefties in the mix, of course, but all appear to be part-time options at this stage. Spangenberg hits from the left side, as do Amarista and rookie Travis Jankowski — who could conceivably split time with Melvin Upton in center next year. Outfielder Alex Dickerson may get a long look to make the team as a fourth outfielder this spring, and Brett Wallace could be brought back after a surprising run (with a sample-size warning in full effect). There’s Yonder Alonso, but he’s yet to impress consistently and is out again with another injury. He may be displaced at first by Myers. Top youngsters Renfroe and Austin Hedges are righties, so it isn’t as if there is a big, left-handed bat waiting in the wings.
What can be done? As things stand, there isn’t a lot of room to spend: San Diego already has $75MM on the books, and that’s before acting on a $8MM option over Joaquin Benoit and paying arb raises to Myers, Alonso, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, and Derek Norris. While some budget bench signings are possible, the trade route looks more promising if the Padres look to add an everyday left-handed hitter or two.
It would have been a miracle if Preller could have made the Padres a division winner in his first year as GM. What he has been successful in is making the Padres a team worth watching (sometimes.) That’s a first chapter in his success story. Anybody who says he failed is very short sighted and not being fair. I’ll admit, some of the trades of our young farm hands made me wince but I’m hopeful that he’ll replenish our farm system and bring a winning team in the near future.
Solarte, Kemp, and Upton have been the best additions in my opinion. Kimbrel as well but he’s not an everyday contributor. I’m not a big fan of Shields but he has made this team better. Our young call ups, Jankowski and Spangeberg are ok. They are fast but not game changers. We need game changers. I like Wallace in the pinch hitting role and I even believe Melvin is getting closer to his TB Rays form. Both of them have power and can change a game. If Asdrubal Cabrera is available next year, he’d be an improvement for our shortstop situation.
I’ll be back for next season and will continue to stand behind Preller.
Well – on the surface of it, he traded away his farm chips in an attempt to succeed short-term, and in the short-term, he has failed.
There’s no way to sugar coat the fact that the only real difference between this time last year, and now, is that the Padres have less talent to make moves with.
Solarte? Solid. Kemp? Gives up in the field what he gains with his bat, he genuinely is one of the worst defensive outfielders of this era. Upton – could have bought back some value before bailing as a free agent. But was inexplicably held onto despite not competing this year.
It’s hard to defend Preller. It’s one thing to say “wait and see what happens”, but there’s little faith that he’s going to bring the Pads any genuine success, when his moves are quite clearly not based around anything other than the immediate future.
The only difference is the Padres have less talent to make moves? Really? There is legitimate big league talent on this team. They were a team that the fans came out in record numbers to watch. that is a success. The core of the new acquisitions will be here next year and the owners have said they will open their pocket books some more. With a few additions, this team will be contenders.
How’s the kool-aid taste anyways?
One correction if you’re talking about Preller: Solarte was picked up before he arrived in SD.
Beyond that, not a fan of what you consider Preller’s other best moves. The Kemp deal–taking his contract while trading Grandal, is hard to spin in a positive light. Kemp is finally hitting— but it’s Garbage Time. We needed him in the first half.
The Upton trade, I think, has worked out well for SD. However, not trading him (or several others) at the trade deadline and simply getting a comp pick was a mistake.
And I don’t care that the Padres are more “interesting”. I want them to win. With all the prospects and money thrown around by Preller, I expected a much better result.
If you don’t expect to contend in THAT year you don’t trade for a rental of Justin Upton. Period.
I’m sure the plan was to contend this year. In fact, most if not all experts picked the Pads to be at least in wild card contention. remember? Just because it didn’t happen, does mean there wasn’t an expectation. Losing Upton to free agency brings a compensation pick. I’d say it wasn’t a total loss, if he in fact does leave.
Sorry Petcopadre, your team is quite the train wreck and it is largely the Rock Star GM’s fault.
He tried making the big splash and the only thing he got was wet. There’s no cavalry on the way as the farm is barren as is much of the talent around the Petco diamond. The only thing you can hope for when you go to the ballpark is a good tan.
I admit the Padres aren’t in the best position, but who of the players Preller traded in the off-season are having years which would have made the Padres contenders in 2015? Grandal started hot and made All-star team, but he isn’t TOO far off Derek Norris number wise. Joe Ross and Trea Turner may have bright futures, but once again wouldn’t have led the Padres to the playoffs in 2015. Who else? Maybin has come back to earth, Jesse Hahn got hurt, Jace Peterson has a 50 point OPS lower than Spangenburg. I can keep going.
thanks Bbatardo. All these Monday morning GM’s. Preller brought fans to the stands, which in turn brings more revenue to the team. Next year, after the Fowler open their wallets a little wider, we’ll have a more complete and competitive team. So easy to put down a “rockstar GM” after one year. How many of the posters are actual Padre fans?
Sure Ross and Turner wouldn’t have gotten us into the playoffs this year, but they would have helped A LOT down the road. We would control them through 2021 with the first 3 of those years at the league minimum and they play positions that we currently have needs at.
Peterson would have been a better option at SS (his position in the minors) than Amarista or Barmes. Norris is a horrid catcher…why else would they play Hedges and his sub-Mendoza BA and put Norris at 1b? Preller traded away any hope of a near-term future for a bunch of players whose baseball card stats looked very good but couldn’t field. While Turner, Ross, Grandal, Wisler, Peterson, Mallex Smith, etc… gain experience and should improve, all the Padres’ pickups will do is get older and even more injury prone (if that’s even possible for balsa wood Myers).
This team needs guys who can get on base consistently…….period.
With Gyorko and Kemp waiting until the 2nd half to start contributing the inconsistency of the rest of the offense really hurt this teams chances of winning games.
Solarte and a healthy Myers were the only offensive players who were consistently productive this year.
Plus what Preller didn’t count on was the pitching getting worse after adding Shields and Kimbrel instead of better.
Sign another good starter…….find a defensive shortstop who can also get on base(good luck), and hope that Liriano,Dickerson,or Renfroe can replace Upton and we have a chance next year.Of course,we also have to hope that Myers stays healthy……Gyorko and Kemp start hitting in April…..and the starters have years like they did in 14′ instead of 15′.
Oh the dreams of a lifelong Padre fan!!
As a braves fan, I love the way the Touki trade is referenced.
With the escalating payrolls in MLB (due mainly to huge media incomes), is it really fair to assume that the Padres can’t spend significantly more than they did this year?
Well it was a club record by a fairly significant margin for the second time in consecutive years. And even if the overall sea level rises, that’s going to be matched by player demands, so they’ll presumably remain in largely the same position vis-a-vis other clubs. Not like they’ll get a revenue boost unique to their organization from late contention or the playoffs, as they might’ve hoped.
I know, but with new ownership often comes new directions, and that seems to be the case here. Also it seems from recent experience that media revenue is the main driver of spending ability. I don’t really know where the Padres stand in that department.
Rumors around Padres land is they plan to spend around $125 Million next year on payroll. Not a huge increase but ownership isn’t as cheap as previous regimes…
Man the Padres resembled the Phillies in a hurry. Aging overpriced veterans with a losing record, thin farm and inability or unwillingness to reboot.
#4. Fix the bullpen. Currently ranked #24 in MLB. No real LHP specialist and Benoit is 38-39 years old.
#5. Find a long term manager.
#6. Find a long term GM.
And because we didn’t trade Kennedy or Benoit at the deadline we pretty much have to extend Kennedy a QO and exercise Benoit’s option.
Petcopadre
Did you even read the article regarding the “has beens”, never was”, and aint gonna be’s in the Padre’s system and on the field. Trade with who, and offering what?
Your Rock Star GM spent not money but a lot of money putting a bad mix of players on the field that not only didn’t compliment each other but cost Millions to assemble.
Stop drinking the Petco Coolaid, get that tan at the game and “rock on” with your star!
They didn’t make all those trades and add millions to the payroll just to increase attendance by 250k.