Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.
If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:
- Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
- Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
- Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
- Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”
If Desmond knows that his skillset has permanently decreased, then wouldn’t he definitely decline the offer? After all, if he’s going to be permanently as good as he was this year, then this off-season represents his last chance to secure a multi-year deal while teams still believe he’s the player that he was in years past.
I agree, he would hope to find a team who would bet he would bounce back. Of course, if there is a risk his medicals would reveal a problem, he might take the QO
20 guys getting a QO would be a record I believe. Seeing as players must basically take a 10 million hit which is the value of the compensation pick, a number of those guys would be better off taking the QO. Lackey for example due to his age is unlikely to get more than a 2 year deal. Wieters coming of TJS and a bad season woud be better of trying to re-establish his value. Bordeline QO guys have not done very well under Boras (Drew, Morales, etc). Jeff Samardzija coming off an awful season should also accept unless he is prepare to take a 1 yr deal at les money from a NL team with a protected pick (there are 7 of them) to reestablish his value in a weaker league and better park
Can’t see a situation where Samardzija wouldn’t be able to beat the QO. He could get 15 million a season for 4 or 5 years at a minimum. No reason for him to take the QO.
I don’t think many teams are interested in paying $15m a year for a guy with an ERA around 5
Agreed as usual.. Cashman has had a man crush on Samardzija for a couple of years now.. He will probably be bidding against himself and overpay for him.. Chances are pretty high that Samardzija is a Yankee next year..
From an analytics stand point O’day has been one of the most effective relievers in baseball the past 2 seasons. Really there is nothing to lose giving him a QO.
Pay a non-closing reliever, no matter how dominant, $15.8MM for one year??? No… O’Day’s market value is somewhere around what Pat Neshek got, 2-3 years at $6-7MM per.
I dont think david murphy gets his team option picked up. If i remember correctly the angels just picked up todd cunningham from the braves who is also a utility outfielder and i dont think they would carry both.