Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Jordan Zimmermann' to a friend
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By Jeff Todd | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Jordan Zimmermann' to a friend
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Draven Moss
I’d love to see the Red Sox pick him up at that price.
mike244
I’d try to cut off that 6th year and do something like 5/120.
rmullig2
Isn’t one Porcello enough?
yarritsblake
How are the two even close to the same? Zimmerman is pretty much a lock for a 3.00ish ERA, 7-9 K/9, sub 2.0 BB/9, and solid all around numbers. Porcello has had just two seasons under 4.00 ERA (rookie year was 3.96), has two seasons of K/9 over 7.0, and the rest under 6.0, with most being under 5.0. He does have decent control usually hanging around 2.0-2.5 on BB/9. But he also has broken 200 IP once, and hasn’t gone above 190 in any other seasons. So I don’t see the comp in any way, shape or form.
6blairpaul
I’m pretty sure he was referring to the $. May be mistaken.
6blairpaul
Why do you think he got such a large contract?
6blairpaul
I made the mistake of bring up Porcello yesterday. Very sore subject.
bobbleheadguru
Porcello would be welcome back in Detroit… if most of his salary were picked up.
Rally Weimaraner
I think the Red Sox will see Zimmerman as a lower cost alternative to Price and Cueto. Going with Red Sox for 5/100, I think the QO, a down 2015 and a deep free agent starting pitching class will limit his market.
A'sfaninUK
If he gets 5/100 he should fire his agent, unless its Milwaukee and he’s taking a massive hometown discount. Even then, he’s a lock for a minimum 6/120 deal. I can see him going much higher too.
6blairpaul
I think Buchholz will bounce back and Porcello should also. And Erod looks like a real winner plus a number of other guys like Hill, Miley etc…Do they need to spend for a #1?
mookiessnarl
It’s not the number one priority. Honestly if they don’t get at least three quality arms for the bullpen there’s no point in getting a number one starter. But they still need someone to front the rotation. Someone like Kelly or ERod growing into that job isn’t beyond the realm of the possible, it’s just not something that can be counted on.
johnsilver
Key in the article is “bulldog mentality” that makes him valuable to any team. I don’t think he’s a SP a top team can look to as the #1 for any length of time, think back to what made John Lackey valuable when he 1st became a FA and Boston signed him, not to lead the rotation, but to sit behind then Beckett and lester. not that lackey wasn’t better really than Becket, but one can get the point. Serious inning type guys who will also dominate more often than not, though not Ace like qualities.
Not saying wouldn’t like to have Zimmerman, as would, just not at a cost of more than 100-125m spread over 5-6y. A team that can afford the payroll and needs an ace should probably look forward and not rely on just Zimmerman, unless they maybe have another pitcher of at least this quality already, or acquire another.
A'sfaninUK
“Bulldog mentality” doesn’t mean anything, stats do, and over his last 971 innings he’s had a 3.30 FIP – those kinds of pitchers simply do not grow on trees. He’s borderline elite, so while he probably won’t get the $200+M Price will get, he’s certainly going to fall around 150-180, in my opinion.
mike244
95% sure not getting 150-180. He’s in the 100-130 market. He doesn’t miss bats, has had TJS, and has pitched his entire career in the weak hitting NLE. He’s also in a market flooded with pitching, there are 3 pitchers they are clearly better than him (Price, Cueto, Greinke) and 5 who are slightly worse but should be much cheaper (Kazmir, Maeda, Shark, Leake, Chen)
6blairpaul
To me a ‘bulldog’ mentality is a guy like Mad Max. I’ve watched Zimm alot and don’t see that. I see a very good #2 that like Chen will get top dollar.
LH
Agreed, will add that having guys like Zimmermann and Scherzer around has made watching gio and stras just so, so tough.
ianthomasmalone
I think Zimmerman would be wise to sign early. The pitching market is deep and the teams who miss out on Greinke/Cueto/Price may not necessarily care to commit 100+ million to Zimmerman.
A'sfaninUK
It’s deep this year, but its as shallow as can be next year, unless you like CJ Wilson. Strasburg is the only borderline elite SP. Teams know this and will spend accordingly this offseason.
ianthomasmalone
Zimmerman is not getting 150 easily just because pitching is shallow next year, especially after an underwhelming season.
A'sfaninUK
Being next years FA market for starting pitchers consists of Strasburg and a whole lot of “meh”, I can see Zimmermann getting between 150-180 quite easily,on a 6-7 year deal. He’s not elite, but money and performance are only very loosely connected, he’s going to be subject to a lot of teams in a war for him, and whoever wins will be getting a solid 2-3 guy who should put up 3-5 excellent seasons for his new club.
double
I think people are really underestimating how much free agents will get. There are a lot of pitchers on the market, but there are more teams that need pitchers than there pitchers in free agency. And the Dodgers wouldn’t wince at signing Greinke and another starter to contracts worth over $250 million.
thecoffinnail
Yes next year after Strasburg and Cashner it gets pretty shallow but 2018 has the potential to be as deep or deeper than this year’s class.Teams that miss out on this year will have a shot at Arrieta, Cobb, Ross and Lynn. Plus, guys like Pineda, Eovaldi, Parker, Smyly, Duffy, and Alvarez all have the potential to break out in the next couple of years and become TOR arms. Also, Tanaka has an opt out and could be in this class as well..
So, I find it unlikely that a team would handcuff themselves to a $150+ million contract just because 2017 isn’t very deep. Especially when that contract would more than likely effect their spending in 2018. I am not saying Zimmerman definitely won’t get that kind of money. A team like the Red Sox or Dodgers could fall in love with him and give him that kind of money. But a team like Philly (unlikely I know) who could be ready to contend again in 2017 isn’t going to cough up that kind of cash just because the 2017 free agent class is weak.
aff10
Zimmermann’s lack of strikeouts and ground balls concern me. I personally view him as a very high-end third starter, but after his poor year this year, relatively speaking, I’m not sure any team will view him as TOR arm. I would agree with Jeff at about 6/125-130.
6blairpaul
A high end #3 on one team might be a high #2 on another. It’s easy to pick the aces, after that it’s all relative depending on strength of staff, NL or AL, and a strong or weak defense. A good example is Chen for my team in ’15 he was their #1. He will get 100 easily for 5. Guys insist on arguing that but with the Cubs for instance he could be a great pick-up. I always remember Maddon talking about how tough he was and getting high praise. Chen will be the best FA lefty after Price and Boras will get him paid well as he should be. Very unfortunate to lose him but we’ll survive.
thecoffinnail
It is unfortunate the O’s won’t be able to keep him. I would like to see him go to the Mariners. They need a solid dependable innings eater with good upside.
CTBrowns
I feel like he is going to sign in Toronto.
yarritsblake
Honestly, I’d rather the Dodgers land Zimmerman over Price or Cueto, and then either go all in in a bidding war with the Cards for Jason Heyward, or the Royals for Alex Gordon, and try to land some tier three pitcher a la Gallardo or Leake on a short-term deal to bridge the gap over to our young guns in the farm system. Getting Zimmerman as apposed to someone like Greinke would allow us to go all in to grab either Heyward or Gordon and fortify our outfield and lineup even more and probably still add another reliable arm. I dunno, it all depends on how much money the front office is given to work with, which, with recent history, seems like a lot.
thecoffinnail
They have too many outfielders already. Plus, they already have Kershaw, Wood, Ryu, and McCarthy, already under contract for the rotation next year. Urias isnt far away and Lee deserves a long look. Arroyo has a $4.5m buyout on a $11m option and they are going to chase Greinke hard.I could see them chasing Zimmerman if they miss out on Greinke but with all of the 2nd tier guys they already have under contract the only 2nd tier option I can see them getting would be exercising the option on Arroyo seeing as he will only cost an additional $6.5 m after the buyout. If he is healthy he will be a very solid #5. I think the #5 spot is Lee’s to lose though.
bobbleheadguru
Tigers make sense to me. Instead of getting two lesser FA pitchers for the same combined AAV, get Zimmerman as more sure thing with high upside and then count on VanMan Norris or Fulmer to pan out (high chance that one of the two do). You can always adjust mid-season if they both do not.
6blairpaul
First let’s hope and pray Dan Norris get’s through his bout with thyroid cancer.
lonechicken
Washington will miss him. 🙁
6blairpaul
You still have a good Zimmerman left.
mike156
Reminds me a little of Rick Reuschel. very solid, not sure he’s a dominant ace-type. on the right deal, a very good investment. But too long, and you don’t get the peaks and pay for the regression.
6blairpaul
Really right on target Mike. Very good comparison to Rick.
Los Calcetines Rojos
I think he may surprise some people with where he signs like the Dodgers, White sox, or Blue Jays. Most people keep saying Red Sox, Cubs, or Tigers but those are the obvious choices and as we all know obvious never happens
ASapsFables
Trust me on this…Jordan Zimmermann is not signing with the White Sox. They have never spent that kind of money on any free agent, let alone a starting pitcher. They already have a true ace in Chris Sale who is making a fraction of the dollars that Zimmermann will command as well as a solid #3 pitcher in Jose Quintana who, like Sale, was also locked up long term with a team friendly contract extension before becoming arbitration eligible.
The White Sox are less likely to sign any top tier FA this off-season after their ‘spree’ last winter and far more likely to upgrade through trades or just hope that many of the under-performers from last season live up to to their contracts and that some of their younger perceived core begin to fulfill organizational expectations.
The club may look at bringing in a cheaper short term option like former ace Mark Beuhrle to help bolster their rotation in 2016 until some of their high end prospects like Carson Fulmer, Frankie Montas, Spencer Adams or Tyler Danish are ready fro prime time roles as MLB starting pitchers. Unless they opt to trade a pitcher like Quintana this off-season to solve a core need at third base or catcher or can somehow manage to dump John Danks in the final year of his ill-advised 5yrs/$65M contract extension, their likely 2016 rotation will consist of Sale, Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Danks and Erik Johnson.
fred-3
Supply and demand are going to push all these pitching contracts down. Price and Greinke will still get paid, but I’d mostly take the under for everyone else this off-season.
6blairpaul
Every case is different. I agree that Zimm won’t get 150-180 like people are saying. But most of the so called two’s and three’s will get paid very well. Going from the AL to the NL for some of these guys in particular should create a few more surprises like Jake with the Cubs. That’s why I see Chen and some other AL guys doing real well in the NL. NL to AL is obviously more difficult to adjust to.
David233
I hope the Astros consider him but not at that salary.
templesofsyrinx
Anybody even mentioning the Jays in this conversation?
6blairpaul
If he chooses to pitch in the AL east that’s the place to go.
Jeff Todd
I included them in the post. He has a very wide possible market.
ASapsFables
Many of Jordan Zimmermann’s metrics resemble those of another impending free agent starting pitcher…Jeff Samardzija.
Zimmermann is 16 months younger and the more accomplished starting pitcher in regards to W-L and ERA, but also has a history of injury and more mileage on his arm. Zimmermann also has benefited from starting for a far better team in Washington than what Samardzija pitched for in Chicago during the Cubs rebuild and White Sox re-tool over the past 4 seasons.
Because of his production, Zimmermann will command the higher contract but Samardzija just may turn out to be the better value if he can hook up with a real postseason contender long term and not have to be relied upon as his new team’s ace starting pitcher. In my opinion both profile as #2 or #3 starters but Zimmermann may be asked to head up his next clubs rotation with his expected contract while Samardzija is less likely to be signed for that role with his new team. ‘Shark’ put up good numbers following his mid-season trade to a contending Oakland club in 2014. He wasn’t asked to be the team’s ace and he also benefited from starting his home games in a pitcher friendly ballpark. A combination like that with his new FA contract just might make him the more valuable pitcher for his next club.
hozie007
Post-all star break, the Red Sox led MLB in BA….but middle of league in ERA. A few more wins and they’re in the playoffs. I think Zimmermann could be a nice fit in Boston and has an even keel attitude with no off-field baggage. He would be worth the investment. I don’t get the same vibe on Cueto or Leake….and Price is going to be…well, too Pricey!