While the Orioles will make an effort to make competitive offers to their impending free agents, the club’s previously exhibited unwillingness to overpay might lead Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day to new clubs this winter, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The top offers will likely end up surpassing the early, often conservative estimates, and Connolly notes that Chen could conceivably land a five-year deal, while O’Day could get four years. (I personally agree with each possibility, especially the latter.) Davis, meanwhile, could command $150-200MM over a seven-year term, which would shatter the team’s most expensive contract ever (Adam Jones’ $85.5MM deal). While Connolly notes that the Orioles “should” have the money to make strong pushes to retain their free agents, history is not on their side in retaining their top free agents.
A bit more on the O’s and some other Eastern-division clubs…
- MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes that Baltimore is probably caught between a rock and a hard place with Davis; there’s a large outcry among fans to see Davis return after the Orioles failed to re-sign Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. However, the O’s will eventually want to make a run at locking up Manny Machado and also need to pursue help for the top of the rotation. As Melewski points out, it would seem difficult for the Orioles to sign Davis, extend Machado and bolster the rotation — or even to accomplish just two of those three goals.
- While the Phillies traded many of their former stars over the past calendar year, there was no interest from another club in first baseman Ryan Howard, former president Pat Gillick tells CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury. Gillick expressed some surprise that no American League team expressed any interest in swinging a deal for Howard, who despite his contract and platoon issues remains a candidate for part-time DH work. The Phils would, of course, have to eat a huge portion of the $35MM still due to Howard ($25MM in 2016 salary plus a $10MM buyout on his 2017 option), though they were willing to absorb money most of their recent trades of veteran pieces.
- Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down the Nationals’ roster, outlining the players that exceeded expectations, those that met expectations and those that failed to meet expectations. Most notably, in doing so, Janes points out that Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth were all penciled into the lineup on the same day just twice this season.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations sees more of the Royals in his team than he does the Blue Jays, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Put another way, Dombrowski said last week that he feels the Sox have enough power on their roster and is pleased with the team’s overall low strikeout rate (even though a few players do whiff with regularity). As Silverman writes, pitching and defense — specifically the former of those two elements — will be Dombrowski’s primary focus this offseason.
Why is there so much hype over Chris Davis?
Here are some recent ‘mega’ contracts handed out to 1B: Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Ryan Howard.
You can’t completely ignore his 2014 campaign as an anomaly, and recent precedent isn’t on his side. Between the players I listed above and Chris Davis, I’d say that Davis isn’t nearly as accomplished as a player.
Who will Chris Davis become?
If I were the O’s, I’d be extremely hesitant to re-sign Davis. Instead, (1) re-sign the other players mentioned in the article, (2) lock up Machado to a long-term deal and (3) sign Ben Zobrist. I do admit that #3 is a vacuous statement; every team would benefit from Ben Zobrist.
I’m with you on Davis. 7 years/$150 mil for a guy that will hit .250, strike out 200 times but give you 40 homeruns? I’d want no part of that. Especially if you’re gambling away the chance to keep Machado.
It’s funny, because I think a guy like Howard could be a decent idea for Baltimore (Philly is basically giving him away and as a platoon, it could work), but his contract that looks so bad right now is exactly the type of contract that someone will give Davis.
What difference does the amount of strikeouts he has or his .257 career batting average make when he’s sported a career .867 OPS during his stint with the Orioles?
Ok, the batting average probably doesn’t matter as much. But as he ages, expect that OPS to be coming down. Ryan Howard has a career .868 OPS and the last 4 years have been pretty unspectacular.
To me, the strikeouts are an indicator that he’s not putting the ball in play enough to sustain his current OPS if his power is reduced at all. This year, he had 150 hits, of which 47 were home runs (roughly a third). If some of those home runs start becoming outs, then he might be more of the Chris Davis you saw in 2012 and 2014. Not exactly what a team like the Orioles should be paying $20-28.5m/season for. The numbers might look good now, but I don’t know that I can justify 7 years based on 2 really good years.
I’m not saying he can’t be a productive power hitter in the next couple years, but for that money, I don’t think it’s worth the risk of losing out on Machado and ending up with the next “bad” long-term contract.
With his .350 OBP a team would take that every time. The fear is that he won’t repeat those numbers.
7/$150MM would scare me, but I’d gladly sign him to 5/$110MM
Go figure Gillick and then Amaro were surprised about nobody having interest in Howard.. he of the sub .300 OBP percentage and useless in the field. No team would be willing to pay more than 4-5m (if that) and give up the slightest of prospects for Howard, why Houston all of a sudden is rumored to be putting Carter on the block.. All a DH who has nothing but power as an attribute is worth. Simply with the ability to hit 25..MAYBE 30 HR and bringing nothing else to the table won’t get you too far and not worth much prospect, nor value wise, unless you can get on base, or play a respectable defense at some position nowadays.
Carter is going through arbitration… its obvious the Astros arent going to tender him 9 million dollars. A team would have to be nuts to trade for him. He will have value in free agency though. He still posts a high walk rate and with some BABIP luck, or in a DH platoon, he is a solid piece for say 3 million dollars.
Orioles best bet at contending would be to pull a 2-3 year rebuild. If they offer QO to all 4 FA’s, that would be 4 extra draft picks next year to try and restock the farm. They really only have Harvey and Bundy that can be impact players at some point. If they were to also trade Jones for a massive haul, they would have a top farm system to propel them self into contention by 2018-2019.
Totally agree with everything here; don’t know why I never see anyone suggest the Orioles rebuild. Probably because they wouldn’t. I also think the timeline would be longer. Even if they got 5 top 40 picks next draft it would be a while before they were contributing, and since Jones is really their only high-end asset they would (or should) on acquiring players who are more talented buy farther away. Britton’s really their only other high quality though. And frankly while I think they should take the risk of giving Machado a 10-plus year extension I think he is Boras which means it would have to be like $200m-$40PM depending on how long it was, and since it seems immensely unlikely they would do that maybe they should just trade him now too while his value is at its highest.
Yeah, I think that if they were able to move Jones (And they should) then trading Briton/Machado would be a logical next step. The Orioles simply don’t have the SP to contend any time soon. It would be waste to see both Jones/Machado leave after the 2018 season without getting anything from them. Both players value are probably at their highest as well. Sadly though, I think “Saving face” with the fans is going to dictate their decisions more than sound judgement and future based moves.
Machado is one of the best players in the game, no single prospects acquired for him will ever come close to his value. betting on 2-3 “great” prospects who even at their ceiling will never be as good as him would be unwise. the only way is if they get a giolito type prospect back which they won’t. I didn’t lay out this comment in a very intelligent way so to sum up, the Orioles probably see macho do as the franchise player and the lead of their core going forward. ( a good comparison is the sixers trading MCW so soon for draft picks, he was two years removed and pretty darn good so isn’t that the best they’re gonna get out of their draft picks?)
You can’t seriously think O’Day wouldn’t jump to take a QO if offered and take his chances in free agency again next year. Miller who was younger with better numbers only got $9 million per year.
Darren O’day… so nasty.
I don’t understand Melewski’s post ” there’s a large outcry among fans to see Davis return after the Orioles failed to re-sign Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.” Yes, Cruz was awesome this year. But how awesome will he be four years from now at age 37 when he’s pulling down $14M? Markakis is going to make $33m in the next three years and while he was very good his first four years, he’s just been a light hitting OF the last seven years. He only had 3HR this year. Overpaying for Davis and O’Day doesn’t make economic sense for the O’s. Signing Machado, a 22 year old, to a 7-8 year contract DOES make sense for both sides.