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CascadianAbroad
I’m not sure if the Cubs bringing back Fowler would say more about Dexter or more about Albert Almora? I’ve heard estimates of four years/$80M for Fowler. That pretty much closes the window on Almora as a CF prospect.
tdmorgan
I would be highly surprised to see Fowler get that large of a guarantee over 4 years. I would expect him to get a 13-15 mil a year salary over 4-5 years. Yes, he has produced this year, but what about all the other years.
CascadianAbroad
I’m with you… I’d guess the market for him is $15-17M/yr. ESPN had him getting somewhere between Ellsbury ($21M/yr) and Pagan ($10M/yr) due to his versatility as a switch-hitter with speed, a good OBP and some pop. Several media outlets have thrown that $20M number around.
ASapsFables
Dexter Fowler’s FA value will also be determined by the market of CF’s available this off-season, which is fairly weak. At 30, he would appear to be at or near the top of the list that also includes 29 year old teammate Austin Jackson and 32 year old Denard Span.
CascadianAbroad
Exactly. He did himself a LOT of favors in the second half by appearing to prove the first-half OBP issues were indeed a fluke. At 30, I can’t see him accepting a one-year QO from the Cubs when there will be a few 4-year offers out there. Now, $20M per? Seems like a lot for what amounts to one elite half of baseball, but his track record makes $15-17M over four years seem realistic.
Jeff Todd
This hasn’t really been his best season. More of an average season. But I agree 20MM annually is probably a reach.
I’d set the over-under at 4/60.
CascadianAbroad
I think the Cubs could have him at 4/$60. He’s entering that window where winning will be more important than another $1-1.5M per year. If he leaves, it’d only be because someone tosses that $20M number at him—or because the Cubs want to go another direction.
djtommyaces
4yr/80mil? Where u hearing that?????
ASapsFables
His main point were the years of Dexter Fowler’s potential FA contract, not the dollars, and it’s subsequent impact on Albert Almora’s status as the Cubs future CF.
In addition to that, the Cubs also have a (nice) problem with a potentially overcrowded future OF among their young core players and top prospects that include RF Jorge Soler, LF/C Kyle Schwarber, 3B/OF Kris Bryant, LF Billy McKinney, along with CF Almora. Even Javier Baez and Starlin Castro have been speculated as possible OF candidates with the Cubs apparent depth of infielders that include shortstops Addison Russell and top prospect Gleyber Torres.
At some point, the Cubs will have to consider trading some of these players for needed depth at some of the systems weaker areas, like pitching and catching, but the question remains…should the Cubs commit years and dollars to a veteran FA like Fowler when they have seemingly sufficient and lower cost depth among their current stock of players and prospects?
CascadianAbroad
Beyond Almora, there’s a dearth of CF prospects in the system. I think Charlie Blackmon could be had from Colorado for a few of the superfluous prospects. With club control through 2019, he’d be a cheaper version of Fowler.
CascadianAbroad
ESPN suggested “Four years at $70-80 million” in August (es.pn/1L8KIjM). Jon Heyman of CBS and Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago suggest a QO of “$15.7-16M” (bit.ly/1jtPpv7). Rant Sports suggests $20M/per (bit.ly/1jtPBu8).
BBProspectus (bit.ly/1hBJT8d) sees something in the 4yr/$65M range—similar to Michael Bourne or Nick Markakis—which feels more correct to me.
Jeff Todd
I see 4/56-68 as the most likely range, but that’s a fair bit more (esp at the high end) than Bourne or Markakis, fwiw.