Dodgers righty Zack Greinke has officially opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. The widely-expected move puts him onto the open market as one of the league’s most appealing free agents.
Greinke signed with Los Angeles as a free agent before the 2013 season, locking up a $147MM guarantee over six seasons. That was a nice enough payday as it was, but his representatives at Excel Sports Management were also wise to negotiate a provision allowing the veteran to opt out after the 2015 season. He’ll give up a guarantee of three years and $71MM, but Greinke figures to earn quite a bit more than that on the open market.
While Greinke is now 32 years of age, he’s also coming off of a sublime 2015 campaign. He led the league with a 1.66 ERA over 222 2/3 frames. Greinke retired 8.1 batters per nine via strikeout and induced a 48.0% groundball rate while permitting only 1.6 BB/9 and a league-low 0.844 WHIP.
There were some fortunate elements to Greinke’s campaign, to be sure. He allowed a .228 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate, and 7.3% HR/FB rate, all of which were on the beneficial side as against his career norms. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators did not quite support the incredible run prevention that resulted.
That’s not to take away from Greinke’s accomplishment or his value. He’s long been one of the league’s better pitchers, and always seemed destined to opt out and cash in. But it’s fair to say, too, that he timed his career-best season perfectly.
I think he is San Fran bound. The Dodgers will try to resign him, but I feel like he’s a Giant already.
Well I guess that settles it then.
I wish I was that good. If that’s the case then you don’t even want to know what I think the Yankees will do 🙂
You might, and I mean – might – not want to post your gut feelings as fact on the internet. Feel free to post all your predictions, but saying things like “I feel like he’s a Giant already” is remarkably silly. Because he’s not, and the odds of him going to SF are pretty slim at best.
What’s the point of a comments section if not post about potential landing spots and what you think will happen. I don’t see the harm in posting what you think will happen. And what’s silly about the comment? It’s my opinion, I’m not stating fact or have any inside knowledge into his thinking. You’re taking this way too seriously.
You did state a fact though. Like I said, saying “My guess is he will go to SF” is fine, “I feel like he’s a Giant already” is silly.
So me stating that I feel like he is a Giant already is the same as saying “He will sign with the Giants”? Alrighty then!
His feelings are not necessarily facts.
Does it make you feel better to be a jerk on a baseball rumor site?
“You might, and I mean – might – not want to post your gut feelings as fact on the internet.”
You’ve got to be kidding, dude. You do this all the time. Even in your own scolding post you wrote, “Because he’s not, and the odds of him going to SF are pretty slim at best.” Which is your ‘gut feeling’ that you’re treating as a fact. Get a grip, man. There’s a reason you’re always downvoted here.
^^ what’s the problem? You need to relax… Honestly, predicting Greinke to San Fran is a pretty fair right now, good fit and lots of tumors connecting the two sides.
They will trade Refsnyder and CC for Harper and Strasburg and Bird for Trout.
Only works if Angels kick in money. Bird has proven in his 45 games that he is the next Tex.
I really hope you’re kidding…
Judging by the thumbs down on that previous comment I guess my previous comment wasn’t outrageous enough that some of you actually took it seriously.
There is no parity in that trade. CC is gone as a pitcher. The Yankees will simply collect from the insurance.
Humor us … What will the Yankees do ?
Honestly, I don’t think they’ll do much. They might court Zobrist a little bit, but I think the age will ultimately scare them off. It all depends on if they decide to trade Gardner this offseason or not. I doubt they will be in the market for any big ticket free agents, but it is the Yankees. If Hal one day wakes up and says “I’ll spend some money today” then it could change. I think they’ll sign Samardzija for better or worse and try to move Nova or Warren. I can also see them attempting to rekindle talks with SD about Kimbrel or talking to the Red about Chapman. I really want them to sign Heyward or Upton, but I doubt they will.
Yankees will not be joining the bidding for greinke. He may have had a great year but no one really assessed how his hand will perform next season
I’ll give him a five year deal
Anyone have any thought on what kind of contract he might get in free agency? I couldn’t imagine it being much more than what he was getting per year on his (former) current one which was $25-26 mil the last 2 years. He’s 32. If he thinks he’ll get $30+ mil/season it would/should only be on like a 4, max, 5 year deal, through his age 35-36 season. I wouldn’t want him at that price.
I think he will command the highest AAV of any of the free agent pitchers but on a shorter contract. My guess is 4/110
Looked at what his contract was. He had 3 years and $77 mil left on it. 2 years of $26 mil and one at $25 mil.
I’ll be surprised if he gets much more than 5 years at $125 mil. Same annual salary just for 2 more years than what his old contract was.
I think he is getting 5/150MM at least. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the AAV go even higher than that, or another year tacked on. The thing is, he is going into free agency this time around better than the last. Combine that with inflation and he is bound to get paid a ton.
I was thinking somewhere along the lines of 5/148 with an option that makes it 6/180 (and a buyout that would really make it more like 5/160)
I’m unsure as to why no one thinks he will get 7 or even 8 years. There seems to be a lot of static about his age, but he’s not that old and shows no signs of falling off.
I see him getting 8/240. 30M a year for his age 32-39 seasons. Maybe even an option for a 9th year. Does everyone honestly think Greinke will be completely awful at like, age 36 to the point where its not worth it going long term with him? Explain your reasoning.
I love that people that hate the fact that all players are overpaid to the point where if you point out that you think a player will make a lot more money than the “everyones overpaid” groupthink, you get downvoted.
Don’t hate the player, hate the game? My higher-end predictions are closer to what will actually happen than everyones lowball ones. Just accept that and get over yourself: these guys are going to get more money than you could ever imagine.
Everyone being overpaid is an oxymoron, which is what makes it funny. It’s the Lake Woebegon affect.
Everyone in baseball, I mean. Minimum wage players make more than the President of the nation.
Sure it’s a lot of money, more income in one year for a journeyman ballplayer than most people will see in a lifetime. Yet they are being paid what the market will bear for people at the top of their particular profession. The problem I have with the use of the term “overpay” in connection with free agents signings is you almost never hear of anyone being underpaid. So you get the impossibility of everyone being above average.
Not exactly, pre-arb players who perform at the elite level are wildly underpaid.
Does adding a non-sequitur to an oxymoron improve the logic?
Pitchers generally decline at some point, and it usually happens the older they get. Age has a lot to do with a contract’s length, whereas AAV is usually determined by performance. The more years and the higher the AAV, the more risk. For somebody that is 32 years old, 7 years is a lot of risk, especially at an AAV of 30MM. Would you sign David Price for 9/270MM? That is basically the same thing. The fact is, very little teams are going to offer Grienke a 7 year deal (and nobody will at 30MM AAV, that is crazy) because it makes little sense to do so. He is likely getting a 5 year deal, 6 year deal tops. Anymore than that and it is likely going to look like an albatross in the later years.
Thanks for the reply, however I disagree with almost all of this:
1. ELITE pitchers (sorry if I was being ambiguous in my earlier post) generally don’t decline into their 30s. If you’re 31 and still throwing up Cy Young numbers, then you are going to be good pretty much through your entire 30s, Greinke isn’t Tim Lincecum, he’s closer to Waino/Lackey/Buehrle, etc. His body isn’t bad like Sabathias, and he has no injury history and his easy delivery means no TJ possibility.
2. Price could very easily get 9/270 this year. The notion of teams viewing contracts as “player must be an all-star every single season of deal” is one fans have, but front offices do not. Cy Young-level seasons are valued massively, like $60M a year (per fangraphs), so a team giving 270M is looking for those massive 2-3 years, not 7 all-star ones. “it is likely going to look like an albatross in the later years.” – front offices don’t really care about that – its all about winning now.
3. “(and nobody will at 30MM AAV, that is crazy)” – this is a big problem I have with the groupthink on these comments sections. $30M for an ace is going to be the going rate in a market that has absolutely no one in next years market, which means it won’t be until 2017 until we see this level of talent again. Teams like the Cubs have so much money to spend due to their young stars being on the minimum – the chances of them outbidding everyone for Price and/or Greinke is very good, they can afford both, and will presumably go after both. It’s about winning now, at all costs, and Greinke at $30M a year is actually not even a bad move for a team with so many young underpaid stars – they could even frontload it so when those stars start earning more via arby, Greinke could be making less. The 2016 Cubs are a unique team in this regard. The Astros are in a similar position too.
Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Pedro Martinez, Roy Oswalt, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, and Josh Beckett all would seem to be counterpoints to your #1 argument.
I agree that, if they stay healthy, elite pitchers tend to stay elite, but expecting an elite pitcher to stay healthy past 36/37 is pretty much putting your faith against the larger body of evidence. Losing at least 2 years’-worth of starts out of the next 7 should be expected, and chances are at least 2 of the final ones will be mediocre at best.
Guys like Nolan Ryan and Schilling are exceptions to the rule. The names you gave don’t even really add to your cause. Lackey and Buehrle it’s hard to really use them. Buehhrle hasn’t been worth ace money in years and Lackey has had an up and down second half of his career and he just happens to be on an upswing. You rant about people saying they “have a feeling” and then you go out and make bold predictions that are out of line with conventional wisdom. Your predictions are outlandish and your comments come off as uninformed and narcissistic. I would say there is a much better chance of Grenike landing with the Giants then him getting a deal in the 270 million range and ether him or Price getting deals over 6-7 years, ( probably 5-6 for Grenkie.)
A sterling example of why the Dodgers will never win anything in the near future. They buy their heroes with fabulous salaries and watch them go their way on to bigger and better money. Prune Face Greinke has about hit his limit and, while he may get more money, he is going to find a team that gives him no run support and see his own talents fading. The guy is a real head case.
Why make a good point when you can just ramble?
Did he steal your girlfriend or something? What a ridiculous thing to post.
He’ll get at least 5 yr/150 and not a penny less. You’re all underestimating the demand for pitching. Cano got 10/240 at 30 years old and he’s a second baseman. Greinke’s breaking the bank. His timing couldn’t be better.
Arguing against this is the relatively large number of elite starters available this winter.
Greinke and Price are elite. Cueto, Zimmerman etc….are very good but are not elite. There is NEVER enough pitching available. I’m guessing both will top 5/150.
I’m not going to get into a debate over the definition of elite, but I think we both know that many if not most teams would be happy to have any of those four at the top of their rotations.
Greinke has only been elite for 2 seasons of his career. He’s ranged from good to really good (and, obviously this year, elite) the past 4, but other than ’09 and ’15, his ERA+ peak was 135 (his ’11-’14 ERA+ was 119), and that came in a year he could only throw 177.2 IP.
There’s a large number of elite SPs this winter, but next winter it’s just Strasburg, no one else. So if you have payroll available, now is the time to spend big.
This is where the Porcello money should have gone… 4 years 120
I’m not sure 4/120 gets it done. I feel like Greinke gets at least 5, maybe 6 years.
Step up AF
In my assessment the Yankees will simply play out the next season and will hit the standings again in 2017.
I agree with others on here saying he’ll get a 5 year deal, that seems to be a good length. Regardless though, he’s going to get paid whole heck of a lot. It will be interesting to see which team will be willing to put down all of that money for him.
I think he’s reps are looking for 6yrs and more than $155M. That’s what Jon Lester got (6yrs/$155M) from the Cubs. I doubt he’ll get a Kershaw or Scherzer type deal.
I agree with Bill N, Greinke has flaws, great arm, bad head. He deserves all the money he can get NOW. But watch him implode when his talents erode.
Can you lay off with the “bad head” comments? That issue he had was like 10 years ago now. He’s hilarious in person and gives no-BS interviews.
I tend to agree with the high side on the money. Whether it’s 6/7/8 years is secondary. It’s the cash that will win the bidding. The Dodgers would be foolish to let him walk if they’re close. If they do, they’ll need 3 FA pitchers. While I get that they want to depend on the system, it is very true that there are no studs on the horizon and Urias is not yet ready. Maybe that’s why Logan White and team has moved on.
What does his market look like consisting of teams willing to go 5 years at over $27MM AAV? I think a lot of teams will be “in” on Greinke before that amount but quickly bow out after. I feel like the Greinke/Price markets might be a little over-stated. I see the Cubs and Dodgers being willing to spend near the $30MM/yr level but many of the other teams (Yankees, Red Sox) have somewhat pulled back the reigns.
If the Yankees(or red Sox) have any sense, they won’t touch greinke. Yes, la is a bigger market, but greinkes performance isn’t nearly as scrutinized there as it would be in New England.
My moneys on Zimmerman being a Yankee, cueto a red sock, and the blue jays, Marlins, nats, giants, and cubs fighting over greinke with him ending up a cub or fish.
Greinke’s performance stands up to whatever scrutiny you can invent, in the real world of baseball at least. He’s just gotten better and better. And the Marlins? Really?
Greinke is a Florida native and loria could very well take advantage of that. The fish need an ace and are willing to dish out money when need be.
If I was greinke I’d be avoiding the Yankees and red Sox as well. Just seems like a poor fit.
I don’t see his birthplace having much bearing on where he chooses to go, or any worries about him being overly “scrutinized” in New York or Boston. We are talking a commitment that could well be in the neighborhood of $150M, so the smallest payroll in baseball seems like a poor fit right out of the box for someone who’s likely to be the most expensive free agent of the season.
I think it is a bit silly that you don’t like the term “bad head” when your handle is crones disease…geez
The guy really makes me hate reading comments on here. Very classless.
As a Giants fan, Zeinke would probably be a great addtion, but we still have the ‘third best pitcher in baseball, Madison Bumgarner. (Cy Young voting will probably be: Grenke, Kershaw, Bumgarner.) Coming from a dysfunctional clubhouse, would he be able to fit in? And his price tag: May $30MM for 5-6 years, at 32 years old! If I were in charge, which I’m not: Zimmerman and Jason Heyward, though we already have a pretty good right fielder.