Free agent righty Mark Lowe is “in active talks with multiple teams” and could be nearing a decision, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The Mariners have some interest in a reunion, tweets MLB.com’s Greg Johns, though as he notes it’ll take much more than the minor league pact that brought Lowe to Seattle last winter.
Here’s the latest pitching chatter around the league:
- The Red Sox are receiving interest in starters Wade Miley and Joe Kelly as well as Clay Buchholz, Crasnick reports on Twitter. Boston is prepared to “listen to trade pitches” on their arms. Jon Heyman hears the same and notes that the club is interested in adding relievers. (Twitter link.)
- Miley is among the pitchers that could be pursued by the Marlins, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. In free agency, Miami’s targets include Ian Kennedy — as we heard earlier today — as well as Yusmeiro Petit, who’d presumably be a swingman option.
- The Orioles will likely add another pen arm even if they wrap up a deal with Darren O’Day, Crasnick tweets. One possibility is southpaw Tony Sipp, per the report, who figures to draw rather wide interest.
- Speaking of O’Day, the key point of separation between the Orioles and Nationals has been Baltimore’s willingness to guarantee a fourth year, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. The Nats were offering a better AAV, but only over three years.
- The Mets are “keeping an eye” on the top of the still-available relief market, per assistant GM John Ricco (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin, on Twitter).
- Some in the Braves organization believe that the team ought to hold onto Shelby Miller, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. Atlanta is asking both for a young, “impact bat” as well as a “Major League-ready starting pitcher” in trade talks, per the report.
Red Sox, do not trade Joe Kelly. This guy throws 97 as a starter and has some nasty offspeed. He could be the dynamic reliever you’re looking for. He’s got major upside in the pen.
The problem with Kelly is even when he throws at 98 or 99 MPh he’s still really hitable. Having him out of the pen causes him to throw mostly fastballs and changes and makes him much worse. He stands to be a good starter if he can continue to mix up his stuff and take a few MPH off his fastball to control it better. All of the strides he made in the second part of last season are lost by putting him in the pen.
There was a time when Wade Davis gave up 11.2 H/9.
Not as a reliever. Davis has much better movement on his pitches than Kelly does. And a 96+ MPH cutter.
Joe Kelly has a decent amount of two-seam movement on his fastballs.
Then why is it cremated when he tries to put a little extra on it?
He doesn’t have the greatest control
Kelly out of the pen will be dynamic.
Doubtful. He throws hard, but doesn’t have the control to put it where he wants. For a late inning pitcher, you want a guy with pin point control, because those innings tend to matter more. The late season run from him gave me hope, but if they can move him in a good deal, mores the better.
Kelly got killed in the 1st half of last year because he failed to realize that MLB hitters can hit 98-99. After getting sent down and then coming back up, you could tell the Sox were having him mix his pitches up better and his curve ball was sick. As long as he mixes his stuff, he can be a stud.
That is an asinine asking price for Shelby Miller. From 2014-2015:
Player A: 395 IP, 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.90 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 4.1 WAR
Player B: 387 IP, 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 3.95 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.0 WAR
Player A is Wade Miley. Player B is Shelby Miller. (From @redsoxstats on Twitter).
I get aiming high in trade negotiations, but damn. They most certainly will be hanging on to him if they believe he’s worth a young, impact bat AND a young ML-ready SP.
You’re sorta manipulating the numbers to hide Miller’s breakout 2015. Sure, you can’t put total stock into one season, but it’s important to note his impressive step forward.
Miller broke out long before 2015. His first year as a starter in 2013 was first full season as a starter. His step back in 2014 as well as his post-all star numbers in 2015 are pretty alarming. The Braves are better off keeping him for now.
Player A: era 4.42 128 innings 102 k’s, era 2.72 208 innings 188 k’s, era 3.49 224 innings 218 k’s in a year year span
Player B: era 3.06 173 innings 169 k’s, era 3.74 183 innings 127 k’s, era 3.02 205 innings 171 k’s in a 3 year span
Player A is David Price 1st 3 full seasons and player B is Shelby Miller’s first 3 full season which are pretty comparable. All 3 seasons Price was a year older also.
Gauging with xfip, war, k/9, w/9 and hard-hit contact rates — Shelby Millers breakout 2015 year was on par with Kyle Hendricks 2015 season.
Ahh yes, the same Kyle Hendricks comment in which last time I said “Hendricks is actually pretty good…stats may be similar but their make ups are entirely different.”
It’s a new week. I challenge you to top your Shelby comments from last week. It may be a doozy, but I believe in you.
Oh, you think Hendricks is pretty good — cool. Does that mean Hendricks is worth AJ Pollock? Absolutely not. And that’s the point. Hendricks is a league average pitcher, and so is Miller. It boils down to that. If you think Miller is better than league average, then please explain why you think that way as opposed to making a ridiculously condescending comment.
What does their makeup have to do with it? So because Miller’s fastball averages 5 mph more than Hendricks, that makes him more valuable? It doesn’t matter that those extra 5 mph do little for Miller when it comes to actual performance…
You do realize that most Braves fans do not realistically think the Braves will get AJ Pollock from AZ? That trade makes no sense at all, really for either club. AZ needs Pollock if they are seriously going to make a run for it this year. The Braves have Mallex Smith for CF, and I’m really hoping to see a guy with 80 speed batting lead-off in Atlanta. The Braves just need to move on from AZ, find another team to deal Miller to or (my preference) keep him because I believe he really his better than all this #3 starter BS I keep reading.
No, he’s not worth Pollock at all, but if it comes down to actual performance, as you said, we should be looking at ERA instead of FIP and xFIP. GOT HEEM COACH, GOT HHEEEEMM
ERA isn’t a metric used to determine independent performance.
Yes but it does measure “actual performance” which is suddenly something you care about.
And makeup has everything to do with it when it comes to young guys. It’s not even worth debating if you don’t understand that.
For being a reasonably nice guy (or so it seems), Shelby Miller sure gets blasted around here. For the large corp of reasonably intelligent baseball fans here, people sure do get trapped in a single mindset that lacks little to no intellectual argument outside of how they (alone) view a single (sometimes two) statistics.
I think the Braves contingent has made our voice heard and as I have previously stated, it clearly is in sync with the feelings of John Hart & Company in Nashville. Miller is not a drain on the budget, he has not yet reached a ceiling, and could (conceivably) help the organization when they plan to contend in 2017, more likely 2018. So the onus is not on Atlanta’s baseball op’s department to make a deal prior to leaving Nashville. The plan is in motion and in my estimation, they’ve done a fairly decent-to-solid job of reconstructing the player development side to reflect the current exorbitant value of cost controlled pitching.
If they make a trade that brings back a young and projectable impact bat (preferably RH but that may be grasping at straws), great. If Miller toes the rubber for Atlanta on Opening Day, great. There is no push from (true) Braves fans to trade him.
Right, Miley is a solid 3/4 starter on a reasonable 3/25mil contract which seems like a bargain compared to the 90 mil Samardzija got or the 75+mil Leake and Chen are looking for.
I would need a solid package to trade him. Or possibly the RS could add prospects on top of Wade Miley to get a better pitcher.
I think Miller’s value is based on last season and the belief that he’s turned the corner and is about to become an Ace.
I am also one that believes the Braves shouldn’t trade Miller. Unless Atlanta gets exactly what they want. Don’t drop the asking price at all. Keeping him is not a bad thing.
Probably want to trade high on him. The first half of last season in the only truly dominant part of his career. He came back to earth in the second half. He’s probably a #3 starter on most teams.
I like to hear that about Boston. If they can grab prospects for Buch and Miley and use those prospects to make a package for a legit #2 then I would be happy.
Price, Tyson Ross, Rodriguez, Porcello, Kelly/Owens looks pretty nice to me.
Tyson(I walk the park) Ross in AL East would be fun.For other teams.No thanks
Love the comment! Tyson Ross walked almost as many as Dice K did in Boston. I’m with you, no way, not in the AL
They’re more likely to trade them straight up for ML or AAA relief pitching.
As a Cards fan who has followed Miller since he was drafted, I do not understand what the Braves are thinking with their asking price. I’d say a couple of top prospects is reasonable but an MLB ready hitter AND pitcher? Yeah right.
If anything, the Braves should just keep Miller. There is your MLB ready pitcher right there.
They would probably take a couple top prospects…Pederson is still a unproven player along with Soler…which are the types of players they are asking for.
I’m not a Cardinals fan, but I live in MO and have followed Miller since he was drafted as well and I have been a huge fan of him since day one. Now that he is with the Braves it is even better….Would still like to see Grichuk in a Braves uniform :)
The issue with Miller remains that his peripherals aren’t very good … HE lowered his gb% in 2015 thanks to an improved cutter, and that coupled with having an all world defensive shortstop behind him likely led a lower ERA. But if you boil down a majority of his success to Simmons, then it’s really hard to justify the asking price
Is there enough evidence that suggests Simmons was THAT big of a factor in Miller’s ERA?
That’s nothing against Simmons at all – I’m just curious.
its an assumption based on a few Indictators. Simmons easily graded out as the best defensive infielder in baseball. miller’s ground ball rate was considerably higher than normal.
Other possibilities include an insanely low hr/fb ratio.
Regardless, if you look past the era, there isn’t anything about Miller that suggests he’s worth the asking price.
I think the Braves really have no desire to trade him, so if they’re going to do so they’re going to bring in a massive haul. Either that or Miller is in the Braves rotation next season. I imagine they’re content either way.
Just saw a tweet that Iwakuma has agreed with Dodgers
Come on Atkins, make your mark and sign Lowe!
Agree
Kinda bummed the Dodgers will get Iwakuma. He’s solid and should help their rotation quite a bit.
the problem with kelly is that he’s not worth a big gamble in talent. He has a big arm, but hasn’t put it all together. So, if you are trading for him, you don’t want to pay too much. And for the Red Sox, giving up on him for too little may be more than they can stomach. What happens if he develops into even a solid 3/4 for the next seven years? perception of value may not meet value, or at least potential of value.
Miller is good but that is a ridiculous asking price
All marlins fans reaction to this: *sigh*
Why is it ok for the Braves to demand a kings ransom because of Miller’s 1 beakout season yet Jackie Bradley’s breakout offensive season is basically discredited ?
Unless JBJ is looked at as a potential 4.5 tool player, we should hang on to him. Why wait for him to become a superstar to get anything for him ? Because if he becomes a superstar why the hell would we trade him ?!?!