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Joe Kelly Planning To Pitch In 2025

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In an upcoming edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, veteran reliever Joe Kelly told host Rob Bradford (X link) that he isn’t yet planning to retire, and that the right-hander is aiming to return next season and pitch in what would be his 14th Major League campaign.

While there hadn’t been any particular indication that Kelly was thinking of calling it a career, it was fair to wonder about his future considering his recent injury history.  Kelly was limited to 35 games and 32 innings for the Dodgers this season due to recurring shoulder problems, most prominently a right posterior strain that put him on the injured list for about 2.5 months.  The right-hander then missed a little under three weeks during another IL stint due to shoulder soreness, and missed out on the Dodgers’ playoff run after (according to manager Dave Roberts) tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game in early October.  Kelly did tell Bradford that he thought he might get inserted onto the World Series roster if the Fall Classic had gone to a Game 6, perhaps due to another injury within the Dodgers’ bullpen.

Kelly has now visited the IL on ten separate occasions over the last five seasons, due to a variety of both arm-related (shoulder, elbow inflammation, nerve problem in his bicep) issues and other maladies like a groin strain or a hamstring strain.  The longest of these IL stints was this season’s trip to the 60-day IL for the shoulder strain, but the sheer number of knocks clearly makes durability a big concern for Kelly as he heads into his age-37 season.

Unsurprisingly, Kelly’s performance has tended to fluctuate pretty wildly amidst all these injuries.  He has a 4.21 ERA over 162 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, with a strong 29.4% strikeout rate but also an 11.2% walk rate.  Kelly had this same walk rate during the 2024 season, though only with a 24.5K% and a 4.78 ERA in his 32 frames.  Most of his Statcast metrics were below average, yet Kelly can still bring elite velocity with his 98.1 mph fastball.

That eye-popping heater will still surely get Kelly some looks from interested teams in free agency this winter, though landing anything beyond a one-year contract would count as a surprise.  Kelly’s past forays into the open market have netted some healthy contracts — a three-year, $25MM pact with the Dodgers in December 2018, then a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the start of the 2022 season.  That latter contract contained a $9.5MM club option for 2024 that the Dodgers (who re-acquired Kelly at the 2023 trade deadline) declined, though they then re-signed Kelly on a one-year, $8MM pact for 2024.

Returning to L.A. on a lower salary could certainly be in the cards, as there is some obvious fondness between the two sides and Kelly would surely love a crack at a fourth World Series ring.  Beyond the Dodgers, pretty much any team in need of extra bullpen velo could consider Kelly in the hopes that he is due for another bounce-back year, even with the caveat that is seems unlikely he’d avoid the injured list for an entire season.

Dodgers Notes: Rojas, Vesia, Graterol, Kelly, Ohtani

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With the start of the World Series less than 24 hours away, the Dodgers are in the process of finalizing their roster as they attempt to win their first championship in a full season since 1988. Manager Dave Roberts spoke to reporters (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today) during today’s scheduled workout day about some of the final roster decisions being made, including the fact that veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas is “likely” to make the final roster.

Rojas, 35, was left off the club’s NLCS roster amid concerns about the adductor strain and sports hernia that have bothered him since late in the regular season. Rojas was only able to play in three of the club’s five games during the NLDS against the Padres and ultimately went two-for-eight at the plate with two singles during that time. During the regular season, however, Rojas emerged as one of the club’s steadiest performances after taking over shortstop for Mookie Betts when he was sidelined by a hand fracture back in June. The veteran posted a solid 111 wRC+ overall this year during the regular season as he hit .283/.337/.410 in 337 trips to the plate for the Dodgers.

Entering this series, Rojas provides the Dodgers with additional depth off the bench that could be helpful as they juggle not only Rojas’s lingering injury woes but also those of first baseman Freddie Freeman and any other positional injuries that could crop up throughout the series. Rojas is the club’s best option at shortstop defensively, though Tommy Edman held down the position quite well during the NLCS and Enrique Hernandez’s .863 OPS this postseason likely warrants consideration for at least some playing time as well.

It seems likely all three players will be in the lineup at up-the-middle positions against southpaws, though Andy Pages and Chris Taylor both enjoyed solid NLCS performances as well. The bigger question could be whether the Dodgers stick with a trio of Edman, Rojas, and Hernandez against right-handers or bench one of Rojas or Hernandez in favor of lefty-swinging second baseman Gavin Lux, who struggled during the NLCS but collected five hits (including a home run) during the division series against San Diego.

Roberts sounded less certain about the status of relievers Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol, though seemed optimistic when he told reporters (including Nightengale) that both players are “trending in the right direction” to make the roster themselves. The addition of a pair of high leverage arms like Vesia and Graterol would significantly deepen the Dodgers’ bullpen, though said relief corps did just fine against the Mets with Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, and Daniel Hudson mixing and matching during the late innings.

Vesia, in particular, would add a lefty reliever to that mix who could help to combat key Yankees hitters like Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo who bat from the left side. The 28-year-old was left off the club’s NLCS roster as he nursed an intercostal injury but enjoyed a breakout season this year as he pitched to a sparkling 1.76 ERA (219 ERA+) in 66 1/3 innings of work during the regular season while striking out a whopping 33.1% of his opponents. Graterol, meanwhile, missed virtually the entire 2024 campaign with injuries but has been a fixture of L.A.’s late inning mix for years now, including a dominant 2023 season where he posted a 1.20 ERA (359 ERA+) in 68 appearances. If Vesia and Graterol prove to be healthy enough to make the roster, youngsters Edgardo Henriquez and Ben Casparius could be the odd men out.

One reliever who Roberts said won’t be on the club’s World Series roster (as relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) is right-hander Joe Kelly, who has not yet appeared on the club’s postseason rosters after struggling to a 4.78 ERA and 4.57 FIP in 32 innings of work this year. Kelly, 36, has been battling a right shoulder injury but according to Roberts could be available later in the World Series as an injury replacement if necessary.

Even less likely to pitch in the World Series than Kelly is two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who has been limited to just hitting in his first year with the Dodgers but resumed a throwing program earlier this year. Roberts shut down any suggestion that Ohtani could appear out of the bullpen at any point during the series today, telling reporters (including Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times) that there is “no possibility” of Ohtani pitching against the Yankees during the Fall Classic. Of course, Ohtani delivered a 50-50 season that’s likely to earn him his third career MVP trophy and so far boasts a .286/.434/.500 slash line during the playoffs, so he’s still providing the Dodgers with plenty of value even without throwing a single pitch.

Clayton Kershaw Won’t Return In 2024

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5:15pm: Kershaw spoke to reporters (including Ardaya) this afternoon about the injury and revealed that his attempts to return from the injury have worsened his toe’s condition. Kershaw added that offseason surgery to address the bone spurs is “in the conversation” but indicated that no decision has been made to this point on the topic. When addressing his future Kershaw indicated that he still enjoys pitching but did not want to discuss his plans in detail until after the season has come to a close.

3:33pm: The Dodgers are scheduled to begin Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres later this evening, and among the pitchers notably absent from their roster for the series is veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That’s not a surprise given that he was previously said to be targeting a return sometime in mid-October, but today manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers will actually be without Kershaw for the entire postseason. Plunkett adds that, according to Roberts, the bone spurs in Kershaw’s big toe have not improved since he went on the IL back in August, adding that things may actually have worsened since then.

The news officially brings to an end an injury-plagues season for Kershaw, who leaves the 2024 campaign behind with a 4.50 ERA (87 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 30 innings of work across seven starts while striking out just 18% of opponents. That’s by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the first time his ERA+ has been below average since his rookie campaign back in 2008, when his 98 ERA+ came in just a hair below average. While low walk and home run rates help to salvage some of Kershaw’s peripheral numbers, 2024 will nonetheless go down as the worst season of the veteran’s career to this point, though given the small sample its difficult to draw conclusion about his ability when healthy enough to take the mound.

Kershaw holds a $10MM player option for the 2025 season, though after occasionally contemplating retirement over the past few offseasons it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll exercise that option or wait to decide on his future until later in the winter. Should he decide to continue his career into 2025, the future Hall of Famer will surely be welcomed back by the only team he’s ever known during an offseason where the club is sure to pursue rotation additions with only Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Gavin Stone locked into the 2025 starting rotation alongside Shohei Ohtani, whose return to the mound will likely necessitate moving to a six-man staff.

In the meantime, however, the Dodgers will need to piece together production from a rotation that offers little certainty outside of Yamamoto and deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty throughout the postseason. A struggling Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) and rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 frames this year) stand as the club’s most likely starting options to fill out the rotation behind Yamamoto and Flaherty, who are set to start Games 1 and 2 respectively.

Aside from Kershaw, right-hander Joe Kelly was also left off the club’s NLDS roster. It was a difficult year for Kelly, who allowed a 4.78 ERA across 35 relief appearances while battling injuries. That includes a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the final weeks of the season, and Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the veteran right-hander won’t be available until at least the World Series after tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game this week. Without Kelly in the fold, the Dodgers figure to rookie Edgardo Henriquez to fill out their bullpen for the NLDS.

Dodgers Select Zach Logue

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The Dodgers announced that they have reinstated right-hander Joe Kelly from the 15-day injured list and selected the contract of left-hander Zach Logue. Righties Bobby Miller and Michael Grove were optioned in corresponding moves. Righty Tyler Glasnow was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Logue.

Logue just signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers last week. He had previously been with Atlanta but elected free agency after being designated for assignment. Since he signed after the end of August, Logue isn’t eligible to join the Dodgers for the postseason, but he’ll give them a fresh arm in the bullpen as they look to get through the regular season.

Despite briefly being on Atlanta’s roster, Logue hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues this season, but his results on the farm have been good. He has made 25 appearances in the minors, 12 of those being starts. In his 97 1/3 innings, he has allowed 2.59 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 23.2% of batters faced while limiting walks to a 7.1% walk rate.

Since signing with the Dodgers, he made one start at Triple-A, lasting three innings. Perhaps he will provide the club with a multi-inning arm out of the bullpen, though Miller’s option also creates a hole in the rotation. The club also gives Yoshinobu Yamamoto more than four days between starts, meaning occasional bullpen games or spot starts are necessary.

Whatever shape it comes in, Logue’s contributions with the Dodgers should allow him to add to a spotty major league résumé. Once a notable prospect with the Jays, he went to the Athletics in the March 2022 trade that sent Matt Chapman north of the border. But Logue put up a 6.79 ERA with the A’s in 2022 and went to the Tigers on waivers. With Detroit, he put up a 7.36 ERA in 2023 and lost his roster spot.

That gives him a career ERA of 6.88 in 68 major league innings but his minor league results have been more encouraging this year. If he manages to hold onto a 40-man roster spot through the winter, he has less than a year of service time and can be retained well into the future but he’ll be out of options next year.

As for Glasnow, he landed on the 15-day IL August 13 due to right elbow tendinitis. It was revealed a few days ago that he has a sprain and is unlikely to return to the team this year. This transfer doesn’t close the door to a return in the playoffs. The 60-day count is retroactive to his initial IL placement, so he could technically be reinstated in the middle of October if he can return to health.

Dodgers Select Brent Honeywell

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The Dodgers have selected the contract of right-hander Brent Honeywell, according to a team announcement. Honeywell will take the active roster spot of right-hander Joe Kelly, who the club has placed on the 15-day Injured List due to right shoulder inflammation. A corresponding 40-man roster move was not needed to accommodate Honeywell, who will take the spot vacated by veteran outfielder Jason Heyward last week. The Dodgers have also officially announced the placement of veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw on the IL that was reported earlier this evening.

Honeywell, 29, returns to the big league Dodgers for a second stint after being designated for assignment by the club just two weeks ago. Once a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport with the Rays, Honeywell has faced a number of injury-related struggles throughout his career that caused him to miss three full seasons of action from 2018 to 2020 before being limited to just 103 1/3 innings of work across the 2021 and ’22 seasons.

Those long layoffs cost him several key years of development and robbed him of his ability to start, but he re-emerged as a big league reliever with the Padres last season. He posted decent middle relief numbers in San Diego before being squeezed off the roster and ending up with the White Sox, with whom he was shelled for seven runs in 5 2/3 innings down the stretch. That disastrous end to 2023 cost Honeywell his roster spot in Chicago, but he managed to find a minor league deal with the Pirates over the winter and made his way to the majors in July.

In 23 2/3 innings of work with the Pirates and Dodgers this season, Honeywell has posted strong results despite lackluster peripherals. His 2.28 ERA is nothing short of excellent, but the fact that he’s managing to prevent runs to that degree despite a microscopic 13.8% strikeout rate appears likely to be unsustainable, particularly if his whopping 89.6% strand rate regresses to a more typical figure. Even so, Honeywell figures to be as solid a bet as any to eat innings in a beleaguered Dodgers bullpen that was forced to use seven relievers after Kershaw departed in the second inning of last night’s game due to injury.

Honeywell will be taking the roster spot of one of those seven relievers, as Kelly is headed to the IL with a bout of shoulder inflammation. The 38-year-old hurler has been struggling mightily for the past month as he’s posted a 7.71 ERA with a paltry 18.2% strikeout rate and a hefty 13.6% walk rate. Last night’s outing was particularly difficult for the veteran as he surrendered two runs on three hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings of work while striking out just one and hitting two batters.

Kelly’s brutal results over the past month have caused his season numbers to go from solid to well below average, as he entered August with a 3.93 ERA and a sterling 2.41 FIP. Those numbers now sit at 5.20 and 4.83, respectively. It’s unclear how long Kelly is expected to be out of action, but with just a month left in the regular season it’s possible the right-hander won’t be healthy enough to return before then. Kelly could hypothetically return at some point in the postseason even if he isn’t able to make it back before the end of the regular season, though given his deep struggles of late it’s unclear how strongly he would factor into L.A.’s postseason plans even if healthy.

Dodgers Reinstate Joe Kelly, Outright Jose Hernandez

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July 19: The Dodgers announced today that Joe Kelly has been reinstated from the injured list to take the 40-man spot of Hernandez. Michael Petersen was optioned to make an active roster spot for Kelly. Their 40-man is now full again so they will have to open another spot when Ryan is officially promoted.

July 18: The Dodgers passed lefty Jose Hernandez through outright waivers and assigned him to their Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Hernandez had already been pitching in the ACL, building up after a layoff between the time L.A. acquired him from Pittsburgh and he began pitching with an affiliate. The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster, which is presumably earmarked for top pitching prospect River Ryan, who’s slated to make his big league debut this weekend.

Hernandez, 26, was a Dodgers signee out of the Dominican Republic back in 2016. He spent seven years in the system before being selected by the Pirates in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. Pittsburgh carried Hernandez in their bullpen all season in 2023, letting him work 50 2/3 low-leverage innings while pitching to a 4.97 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.

By rostering him all season, the Pirates gained the right to option Hernandez in subsequent seasons. However, the lefty pitched just 5 1/3 innings over seven MLB appearances this season and was hit hard with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis, yielding a dozen runs in 15 1/3 innings while working with diminished velocity. The Bucs designated him for assignment in June and wound up trading him back to the Dodgers in exchange for cash.

The Dodgers can now keep Hernandez in their system as a depth option without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him. He’s had a tough 2024 season, but last year’s K-BB profile in the majors was interesting; those strikeout and walk rates were near-identical matches for his marks in his most recent full minor league season with the Dodgers back in 2022, when he posted respective 27.8% and 10% strikeout and walk rates in 59 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A. Hernandez yielded just a 3.32 ERA that season and induced grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. This year’s velocity dip is concerning, but there’s still reason to think he could eventually emerge as a viable bullpen option somewhere down the road.

Dodgers Place Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Michael Grove On 15-Day Injured List

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5:49PM: Further tests revealed Yamamoto has a strained rotator cuff, manager Dave Roberts told DiGiovanna and other reporters today.  No timeline was given, as Roberts indicated that the injury is “not season ending, but it’s going to be some time.”

2:15PM: The Dodgers announced this afternoon that they’ve placed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness. The club also placed right-hander Michael Grove on the 15-day injured list due to lat tightness. In corresponding moves, the club has recalled right-hander J.P. Feyereisen and selected the contract of right-hander Michael Petersen. To make room for Petersen on the 40-man roster, the Dodgers transferred right-hander Joe Kelly to the 60-day injured list.

That Yamamoto is headed for the injured list is hardly a surprise, as manager David Roberts indicated last night that a trip to the IL was likely for the righty after he exited his start last night after just two innings. Yamamoto’s departure from the rotation won’t require the Dodgers to turn to a spot starter, as right-hander Bobby Miller was already slated to return from the injured list and retake a spot in the starting rotation on Wednesday. That will allow him to seamlessly slide into the starting five alongside Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Walker Buehler, and Gavin Stone while Yamamoto is on the shelf.

What remains unclear, however, is just how long Yamamoto will be out. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times indicated earlier this afternoon that the Dodgers plan to send Yamamoto for further testing beyond what had already been scheduled for him in the aftermath of his start last night, and it’s possible the specifics of the right-hander’s injury as well as his timetable for return will remain uncertain until the results come back from those tests. Of course, an absence of any length for Yamamoto is a frustrating turn of events for the Dodgers. The club’s $325MM man has been more or less exactly as advertised this year, with a 2.41 ERA and a 28.5% strikeout rate across his past 12 starts.

As for Grove, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports that his injury is expected to be a relatively short-term one. The right-hander has served in multi-inning relief for the Dodgers throughout the year to this point and has struggled in terms of results with a 5.06 ERA in 37 1/3 innings of work, although it’s worth noting that the righty sports a strong 28.7% strikeout rate and a 3.14 FIP that suggests some of his struggles could be due to a deflated 62.5% strand rate. Interestngly, Grove struggled badly at the very start of the year with an 11.74 ERA across his first four outings, and has again begun to struggle lately with a 9.00 ERA in his last three appearances. In 21 appearances between April 10 and June 7, however, the right-hander was dominant with a 2.45 ERA, and incredible 37.1% strikeout rate, and a 2.75 FIP in 25 2/3 innings of work. If a trip to the IL allows Grove to rediscover that form going forward, it would surely provide the Dodgers bullpen with a massive boost headed as the calendar flips to July.

Joining the roster in the duo’s place are Feyreisen and Petersen. Feyreisen rejoins the club after missing the entire 2023 season due to injury and struggling somewhat in his first games back this year, with a 6.00 ERA and 4.81 FIP in nine appearances. Those struggles have continued at the Triple-A level, where he’s posted a 7.47 ERA in 15 2/3 frames thanks in part to a deflated 16.7% strikeout rate and four home runs allowed in that time. There is some room for optimism regarding the 31-year-old, however; the righty looked excellent in his seven appearances with the Dodgers at the big league level during the month of May prior to his demotion, where he struck out 26.9% of batters faced in 7 1/3 scoreless frames. If Feyreisen can return to the form he showed in the majors last month, he could be an asset for the club alongside fellow middle relief arms Yohan Ramirez and Anthony Banda.

As for Petersen, the 30-year-old is in his first year as a member of the Dodgers organization and will make his MLB debut when he first gets into a game. The right-hander was selected in the late rounds of the 2012, ’13, and ’14 drafts before finally signing with the Brewers after being selected in the 17th round of the 2015 draft. He spent five years in the lower levels of the minors with Milwaukee before joining the Rockies prior to the 2020 campaign, although he didn’t pitch during the 2021 campaign and made just one appearance in 2022.

Petersen had his first full season since 2019 last year and pitched quite well between the Double- and Triple-A levels, with a combined 3.46 ERA in 41 2/3 innings of work with a 26.3% strikeout rate. That performance was enough to get Petersen a minor league deal with the Dodgers this past winter, and he continued to show solid results at the highest level of the minors during his time with the club at the Triple-A level. This year’s results were even better than the last, as he posted a sterling 1.61 ERA while striking out a whopping 36.9% of batters faced. Those exciting results were enough to get Petersen his first look at the big league level, where he’ll join Feyreisen in the middle of the L.A. bullpen.

As for Kelly, the move to the 60-day IL appears to be more or less procedural for the right-hander. He’s been on the injured list with a shoulder strain since the beginning of May and has not yet begun a rehab assignment, suggesting that the 36-year-old was already likely to spend at least the next couple of weeks on the shelf. He’ll now be eligible to be activated for the first time on July 5.

Dodgers Reinstate Walker Buehler, Place Joe Kelly On IL

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May 6: Los Angeles officially activated Buehler, as expected. To clear space on the roster, the Dodgers placed Joe Kelly on the 15-day injured list. The veteran reliever is dealing with a posterior shoulder strain.

Kelly is the fifth Dodger reliever on the shelf, joining Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Ryan Brasier and Connor Brogdon. Kelly has pitched to a 4.73 ERA through 13 1/3 innings on the season. His strikeout rate has dropped from an excellent 35.7% clip to a solid but not elite 24.1% mark in the early going, though he continues to throw exceptionally hard and is still inducing plenty of grounders.

May 2: The Dodgers will activate Walker Buehler from the 15-day injured list on Monday, manager Dave Roberts told the L.A. beat after last night’s win over the Diamondbacks (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). He’ll take the ball to kick off a series against the Marlins.

It’ll be Buehler’s first major league appearance since June 10, 2022. The two-time All-Star went on the injured list 12 starts into the ’22 season with a flexor strain. After an unsuccessful attempt to rehab, he underwent a Tommy John procedure in August. That was the second such surgery of his career. Buehler also underwent Tommy John shortly after the Dodgers selected him out of Vanderbilt back in 2015.

While there was initially some thought that the right-hander could make a return late in 2023, he and the team decided it was better to play things safe and look ahead to ’24. The Dodgers started Buehler on the IL this season to afford him ample time to build back to peak form. He’d very likely have been on some kind of innings limit anyhow, so it’s understandable the Dodgers didn’t want to push him back onto the MLB roster too quickly.

Buehler began a rehab stint right around Opening Day. That stay in the minors probably lasted a little longer than the organization intended. Buehler was knocked out of his third appearance early when a comeback liner hit him in the throwing hand. That didn’t lead to any kind of serious injury but slightly delayed his pitch count build-up. Buehler walked four hitters in 2 2/3 innings in his fourth outing, so the Dodgers gave him two more Triple-A appearances to continue shaking off the rust.

While his cumulative results on the rehab stint — a 4.15 ERA with 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 21 2/3 frames — were middling, Buehler is coming off his cleanest outing. He tossed five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Buehler punched out five and didn’t issue a walk. He pushed his pitch count to 75, so he should be able to handle something approaching a standard starter’s workload immediately.

Buehler will get a soft landing in his season debut, as he’ll take on a Miami club that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging. If he’s able to recapture his pre-surgery form, he shouldn’t have any issue taking on more challenging offenses as the season progresses. Buehler was one of the sport’s best pitchers between 2018-21, combining for a 2.82 ERA over 95 outings. He was off to a more pedestrian start to 2022, pitching to a 4.02 ERA through 65 frames with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate. Buehler’s velocity and swinging strike percentage were in line with their previous levels, though, so he’d likely have turned in his typical top-of-the-rotation results down the stretch if not for the injury.

The Dodgers have gotten solid production out of their rotation thus far. They rank eighth in the majors with a 3.48 earned run average and sit sixth with a 24.1% strikeout rate. It has been a top-heavy group, though. Tyler Glasnow has been excellent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has rebounded from a nightmare MLB debut to rattle off a 1.64 ERA in the subsequent six starts. The back half of the rotation has been shakier.

James Paxton’s solid 3.51 ERA belies an untenable 22:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Gavin Stone has struggled. Bobby Miller landed on the injured list after three starts with shoulder inflammation. Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May have been on the shelf all year. Landon Knack turned in decent results over three starts since Miller’s injury. The Dodgers optioned him back to OKC yesterday.

The 2024 campaign is a crucial one for Buehler personally. He’ll be a first-time free agent next winter. His health history will likely worry some teams regardless of how he performs over the next five months, but he’s one of the higher-ceiling pitchers in the upcoming class. If he stays healthy from here forward, he could position himself well for a long-term deal heading into his age-30 season.

Dodgers Re-Sign Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers announced that they have re-signed right-hander Joe Kelly to a one-year, $8MM contract. Los Angeles passed on a $9.5MM club option on the ACES client last month, instead buying Kelly out for $1MM and sending him into free agency.

This will mark Kelly’s third separate stint in Dodger Blue.  The reliever first joined the team on a three-year, $25MM free agent contract during the 2018-19 offseason, and after L.A. declined a $12MM club option for a fourth year of that deal, Kelly signed with the White Sox on a two-year, $17MM pact.  2023 was the last guaranteed year of that deal, and with Chicago caught in the midst of a disastrous season, the Sox moved Kelly and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline.

Kelly had a 4.97 ERA over 29 innings for the White Sox prior to the trade, but he regained his form in his old stomping grounds with a sparking 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings over 11 appearances for the Dodgers.  Since Kelly’s secondary numbers with Chicago had been far more impressive than his ERA, the Dodgers bet correctly that Kelly was due some positive course-correction.  For the season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA, 58% grounder rate, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate over 39 1/3 innings.  While the walk rate is on the high side, the outstanding strikeout and grounder numbers made up for some shaky control, and Kelly’s arm is still very live at age 35, with a fastball averaging 98.9mph.

Despite these results, Kelly’s health has been a question mark, which likely factored into the Dodgers’ decision to decline that $9.5MM option.  Kelly has been on the injured list eight times over the last four seasons, with three of those stints (due to forearm inflammation, elbow inflammation, and a groin strain) coming in 2023.  While none of the injuries were overly serious, the cumulative IL time cost Kelly around two months of the season, and creates some doubt about how well he can hold up over the course of a full campaign and into what the Dodgers hope will be a deep run into the playoffs.

The bullpen was a big strength for the Dodgers last season, and reinforcing that strength is of particular import considering all of the questions L.A. is facing in the starting rotation.  The Dodgers will surely add some depth and possibly even some superstar arms to the pitching staff by winter’s end, yet obviously it helps the run prevention efforts on the whole if the relief corps has enough depth and quality to help bail out the starters.  Evan Phillips will return as the closer, with Kelly joining Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson as primary setup options.

Robert Murray of FanSided originally reported that the two sides were “very close” to a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic first reported the terms.

Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers won’t be exercising their $9.5MM club option on Joe Kelly’s services for the 2024 season, according to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link).  Kelly will instead collect a $1MM buyout and enter the free agent market.

Previously a Dodger from 2019-21, Kelly made his return to Los Angeles after the White Sox dealt the reliever and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers as part of a five-player swap at the trade deadline.  Forearm inflammation sidelined Kelly for over a month, but his limited (10 1/3 innings over 11 games) work with the Dodgers was a success, as he posted a 1.74 ERA.  Kelly struck out a whopping 47.5% of batters faced in those 10 1/3 frames, which helped cover up a high 15% walk rate.

For the 2023 season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA over 39 1/3 innings for Chicago and Los Angeles, with strong strikeout (35.7%) and grounder (58%) rates, even if his 10.7% walk rate was nothing special.  Kelly’s work with the Dodgers helped get his overall numbers back in line with the improved peripherals he posted with the White Sox, but on the down side, the veteran reliever had another injury-shortened year.  Kelly made three different trips to the IL, with his late-season forearm problem coming after earlier IL stints for a groin strain and elbow inflammation.

This injury history might be why L.A. chose to pass on Kelly’s option, even though the 35-year-old has shown that he can still be an effective reliever.  Declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dodgers won’t still look to retain Kelly at a lower salary, though now Los Angeles will be bidding against other teams looking for bullpen help.  Kelly’s last trip to free agency earned him a two-year, $17MM deal from the White Sox, and there’s a decent chance the right-hander can still land another multi-year contract, even if two injury-marred years won’t help his case.

Previous reports have indicated that the Dodgers also declined club options on Lynn and Alex Reyes, and it doesn’t seem like Daniel Hudson or Blake Treinen will have their club options exercised given their injury woes.  Max Muncy was the only other Dodger with a club option for 2024, but L.A. made a longer commitment by signing the infielder to an extension.

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