The Astros and Phillies made the Ken Giles trade official today, but a key component changed sometime between Wednesday and this morning. Outfield prospect Derek Fisher was originally slated to join the Phillies in the swap. He was pulled from the deal and replaced by former number one pick Mark Appel and pitcher Harold Arauz. The Astros also acquired 17-year-old middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz (no relation).
Here are some reactions to the inclusion of Appel:
- Baseball America’s Vince Lara-Cinisomo provides a scouting report of Appel, grading his slider and changeup as his best pitches. Appel gets into trouble when he isn’t hitting spots with his offspeed pitches. His delivery and fastball offer little in the way of deception which can allow hitters to get into a groove. His fastball still runs up into the mid-90s, but it isn’t a plus pitch. Some scouts think he’ll stick in the rotation while others see him as a quality setup man. My opinion: Appel could benefit from adding a cut fastball, although that can be easier said than done.
- Two scouts figure the Astros gave up nearly as much as the Red Sox did for Craig Kimbrel, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. One fan asked why the Astros didn’t acquire Kimbrel during the season if they were willing to trade so much for a reliever. Per Drellich (tweet), “I believe the way the ALDS progressed gave the Astros fresh perspective.“
- There were dozens of permutations of the trade, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Drellich (Twitter link). This is why the end result is different than earlier reports.
- Baseball America’s JJ Cooper thinks Appel and Fisher are comparable prospects (on Twitter). Drellich concurs (tweet), saying that Fisher is more likely to reach his ceiling. That seemingly implies that Appel is more likely to reach the majors if they are comparable assets. These are all sentiments with which I agree.
- The Astros were wise to deal Appel now, opines Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter). Appel would have faced increased scrutiny if he continued to post mediocre numbers in the Astros farm system. Meanwhile, Drellich and Cooper see Appel as a change of scenery candidate who could benefit from a fresh approach in Philadelphia.
Appel will turn it around but if I was A Phillies GM I would try to get the Cubs to give up Vogelbalm that kids Sprite is near broken behind Rizzo this kid hits for AVG and Power. Could be the next Howard if shown some love
Vogelbalm?
Dan Vogelbach. As a cubs fan I really hope someone trades for him. I want to see him play, but he has ~0 future on the cubs.
The next Howard meaning…an All-Star caliber player for three years and a below-average Major Leaguer for the rest of his career? That’s not exactly a promising comp.
You don’t think being an all-star for 3 years is a good comp for a prospect? That’s significantly better than most turn out
It’s an okay outcome i suppose.. In context, it sounded like the ideal. Ryan Howard, currently, is an enormously overpaid, mediocre first baseman and the failure of a franchise personified.. I don’t think any Phillies fan is longing for the “next Howard..”
id take the next howard in a second, as long as it didnt result in giving him a huge extension 2 years before free agency when he was already starting his decline years.
He was ROY then won MVP the following season then they next 5 years was in the top 10 in MVP voting. I’ll take that from any prospect.
I think the last thing anyone in Philadelphia wants to hear is, “he can be the next Ryan Howard.”
Howard would have been great….if RAJ hadn’t given him that ridiculous extension.
the extension and his decline have nothing to do with each other…the decline was happening anyway, sped up by the achilles injury…
The extension does have everything to do with why he is still a Philly. It wouldn’t be a sore spot if he was somebody elses problem.
And there would probably be another in his place. And if every team had a $200 million dollar payroll, they’d all have one of those contracts on the books. It’ll probably happen one day.
Dan Vogelbach has 15 homerun power and is an on base machine.
His avg obp in the minors is .382.
The Cubs should trade him if anyone wants him but
he’s more of a throw in piece in a larger deal.
He could be great but that could be said for all the prospects in the minors.
Think teams would want Jeimer Candelario who can play third and first.
Who also hit like crazy in the Arizona Fall League but that’s my personal opinion.
Vogelbach is probably not gonna headline a major trade, but his ability to get on base on top of average 1B power potential (you’re underestimating him a little there) makes him a pretty significant asset that should be much more than a throw-in in any deal. Even blocked, he’s not someone you would want to just give away to anyone that wants him.
Vogelbach has terrible defense. He’d be a good DH.
I don’t give a crap what anybody says about Ken Giles and his potential, you don’ trade a guy like Appel as a piece to be included in a trade for a reliever who has less than 2 years experience.
Sure Ken Giles could become a perennial all-star, but you aren’t trading for that.
I will admit his numbers are impressive, but he isn’t proven in regards to relief pitching.
The Astros traded two mid level starters for this guy and it is repulsive how much they gave for Giles.
Either HOU is mentally incompetent, or PHI has Cerebro on their side.
Just an idiotic and desperate trade on behalf of the Astros.
this might be overstated but it will be interesting to see Giles responds going from a closer on a terrible team, to being the man for a team expecting to go to the World series and a man who a team gave up a big price for; different kind of pressure.
This is all about the market for quality relief with a plus fastball. Our options were to vastly overpay to add someone like Darren O’Day who wanted to stay east, give the Yankees McCullers for Andrew Miller, pay more than the Red Sox for Kimbrel or trade some good but not elite pitching prospects for Giles.
The way the pen fell apart in the fall and the glaring need for a good reliever with heat to take the next postseason step is what brought this on. Its not desperation, it’s making a bold move to go for it.
Appel has proven even less than Giles. Giles has at least proven he is a major league pitcher. Appel is still trying to prove he can get MINOR league hitters out.
So, let me get this straight…You’re mad because Giles isn’t a proven reliever (1 1/2 ML seasons), but the inclusion of Appel and his 5.12 MiLB ERA has you angry?
I could see your point if you were upset HOU gave up what you deem is too much in terms of a reliever, but it’s the market that dictates their going rate. The comment that Giles isn’t a proven MLB reliever, however, is a little off the mark IMO.
Aaron Nola was ready for the majors when they drafted him. Between him and Cole Hamels, there hasnt been a lot of pitcher development going on with the Phils, so i cant expect a mere change of scenery to benefit Appel. And fans are just going to see the #1 pick label and expect more than he’s likely to be.
I don’t think fans are expecting an ace here. Most see that he needed a change and still has an upside of a 2/3 if he can figure it out. Worth the risk even if he doesn’t.
You shouldn’t need to take on a risk/reward type player trading Giles. At least one sure-fire player here. Valasquez is more of a sure thing than Appel at this point but Valasquez has his own risk (missing a lot of time).
While I agree that Fisher and Appel are comparable prospects, I think that the needs of both teams weren’t addressed well. The Astros have a bunch of outfield depth, most of which isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, so trading Fisher to a team that needs young outfield depth (the Phillies) would have made a ton of sense. including Velasquez, eshellman, and oberholtzer in the deal on top of Appel clears almost all of the Astros upper-minors/MLB pitching depth leaving holes to fill in the back-end of the rotation as well as in the minor leagues. I thought the previously reported trade made a lot more sense.
The Phillies system is loaded with guys with the make up similar to Fisher. Altherr, Odubel, Tocci, Williams, Randolph, Quinn, and possibly even Alfaro. They needed arms with TOR potential which is was Velasquez is and Appel was thought to be at one time. They are taking a risk.
They have other young outfielders, but Fisher looks to a lot better than all of the guys you mentioned. Stocking up on good Young pitching is the way to rebuild, but throwing a few decent hitting prospects in there isn’t such a bad idea. As much as I hate to say it, the Phillies are pretty much mimicking the Braves rebuild. That rivalry will be fun again in 2017/2018
I would take Nick Willams, Odubel Herrera, Jorge Alfaro, and Cornelius Randolph over him any day. Those are 3 top 100 guys and a guy who was one of the best rule 5 rookies ever.
But I agree, I can’t wait for the rivalry again.
Fisher is not a better prospect that Williams, Rudolph, and Alfaro …. Not even close at this point. Fisher has a lot to prove yet, as in getting out of a hitters friend,y low lvl minor league and producing up the ladder. Can he do it.? Not knocking him, but I’m not swapping fisher for any of those guys.
Godell who was selected in the rule 5 draft has a similar ceiling to fisher, as 6’2″ plus frames are considered to be late bloomers. Will see I wish them all well, but saying fisher was better than all the Phillies current OF prospects is a gross overstatement ….
clears their upper minors depth? lol They still have Brad Peacock, Dan Straily, Asher Wojciechowski, Brady Rodgers, Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, Chris Devenski, Mike Hauschild, Kyle Westwood, Aaron West, Edinson Frias.. I am sure I forgot a few. But those are in the upper levels. Keuchal, Friars, Mcullers, Mcugh can not become FA for any of them till after 2018, Where was Obi, Appel going to be put? plus whatever FA they sign (maybe Gallardo) would not be free till after 2018 as well.
I think the Astros will be alright 🙂
is it possible that Fisher didn’t pass his physical? Or his background check? There may have been a reason for the change that is not being made public. Or maybe the rumors were just wrong and he was never in the trade.
That was what I read on a philly article,
I thought trading Fisher made more sense. Really didn’t want to give up on Appel so soon. I don’t know who Jonathon Arguz is, but if this trade makes any sense to the Astros I would imagine he’s more than just a throw in. Last I heard on Eshchelman, his control is what makes him a future mlb MOR pitcher. So looks to me like the Phillies more or less received 4 of their 5 of their starting rotation in this trade for the 2017 season if Eschelman and Appel come close to their potential. Glad the Astros are in a “win now” mode, but this seems like a lot to give up for a closer, although I watch game 4 of the ALDS and am in agreement a closer is required. Playoffs would have looked much different if Gregorson came in, in the 8th inning of the game Imo.
Jonathon Arguz was just put in as the Astros 18 top prospect earlier today if they tells you anything. He was way way then just a throw in, and at a premium position at 17 too.
Well the last 17 year old shortstop the Astros acquired turned out pretty well, if he’s half as good as that player I would be happy. It would be safe to say that with a 17 year old, you aren’t sure what you have for another couple years. After last season I have trouble doubting Lunhow in any baseball decisions.
Fisher is not a big of a prospect as Springer was but he does have 15 / 15 upside in him.
Like that they kept him instead.
Solid prospect, no doubt, but I liked Appel’s upside more.. We could have had Kris Bryant instead. Team would look much different had they made that decision differently in 2014.
Considering how much SPs cost these days. I have to agree with you that Appel value wise had more upside. But I don’t blame management for giving up on him considering his mediocre minor league numbers.
Pitchers don’t really cost more. We just happened to see two ridiculously good sps hit the market with this influx of money. Bryce Harper is gonna hit 400m.
Additionally, pitchers have a higher failure rate than position players (skills + injury), so it’s probably safer to bet on the postition players.
One year he had injuries and another year they kept challenging him by moving up. He was either terrible or dominant. They took him number one overall thinking he could be the ace of a staff. Just 24, after a great college career, it’s too early to dump him imo. Aces are rare, the top guys command $200 million over 6 or 7 years. Is Appel an ace? I mean, some guys are already saying he’s nothing more than a setup guy, which to me sounds ridiculous after just two minor league seasons, but I dont get paid for my opinion. I think I’m just unhappy about seeing Correa and Bryant doing great while the guy who I thought would be at least decent struggle in the organization and then get moved after only two seasons.
Appel’s pitches have just not translated to professional baseball like they were thought to. He was supposed to have a plus fastball and plus command on his secondary pitches. I don’t know if the reports were wrong or if he’s just been bad, but he just isn’t what was scouted.
I 100% agree with that assessment, it hasn’t translated into professional success. its just hard to imagine missing on a number one overall pick this early. His command and control has not been good in the minors to say the least.
is it really giving up on a player when you trade him, or is it giving value for value? Astros need a closer NOW, more than another starter LATER.
I don’t see why trading as much for Giles as Kimbrel is a bad thing. Sure if they had same amount of team control and making same money I’d rather have Kimbrel. But Giles isn’t making anything right now and is controllable for 5 more years right? Meanwhile Kimbrel didn’t have an elite 2015 and has 3/37 remaining. I’d rather have Giles, because of cost, and also I think he can be as good or better for a few years and Kimbrel I don’t think will repeat his early dominance.
Totally agree with you. It is tough to cough up a former number one pick for a closer, but Ken Giles looks like a terrific closer for years to come.
So happy the Pirates weren’t able to come to terms with Appel after we drafted him originally. He always seemed to come off as arrogant and unwilling to be coached (mechanically speaking) and that showed through his performance and injuries in Houston. And to top it off, not signing him netted the Pirstes Austin Meadows who imo is the better prospect of the two.
They wouldn’t have moved him up if he was arrogant and unwilling to be coached. Besides, Pirates never coached him. His mechanics have always been great imo, it’s the command that he’s struggling with… I would rather have Austin Meadows as well… I wouldn’t write off Appel just yet, I think this is a great move for the Phillies. They already had a decent return, now they get a guy who was a consensus top 5 pick just 2years ago. Mind boggling to me.
The haul that was sent for Kimbrel netted a top 25 prospect and a top 50 prospect with an extremely high ceiling. I fail to see how Mark Appel and Vince Velasquez even come in the same stratosphere as the deal for Kimbrel. I guess said scouts have never seen Javier Guerra.
Because Appel is also a top 50 prospect and Velasquez would be if he was eligible. (Or close to it)
As a Phils fan, Appel and Fisher are comparable prospects… Tough call, I was hyped about fisher, but then realized his numbers are inflated from the hitters league he hits in, plus, it’s a low lvl in tehe minors. I’d say Godell who was selected in the rule 5 draft has a similar track. Got excited about Appel, but then you got to realize he is looking like a bust as #1 pick, sounds like he could turn it around, if he makes adjustments. Sounds like a “Jesse biddle” to me without the head case issues, which is why he has a chance. VV is the piece, if he turns into a 3, and Appel because a great setup man, I’ll be happy.
On Giles, he’s great to watch, but to behonest, I’m glad the phils were able to flip him, to hedge the bet he could flame out. I wish him well, but his velocity dropped down 95mph….. Pretty concerning For phils fans. Good to cash in befire he goes poof . With him, I see him being a dominant closer for years to come or a true flameout … Like m Broxton. I don’t see and in between with him. Just my opinion. Hope both teams make out