Doug Fister is one of many intriguing names still available on the free-agent market, and according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the right-hander has received offers of one and two years in length from multiple clubs (Twitter link). To this point, it’s been a quiet offseason in terms of rumors pertaining to the PSI Sports client, although the Tigers, Phillies and, more recently, the Marlins have all been connected to Fister in media reports. (Detroit’s interest was mentioned in November, so he’s probably off the Tigers’ radar now. The same may be true of the Phillies, who were linked to Fister in early December.)
Entering the 2015 season, Fister was part of what looked to be a star-studded class of elite and second-tier arms that were slated to hit the open market this winter. However, the 2015 campaign was the worst of his career by nearly any measure. Fister, of course, began the season in one of the game’s deepest rotations (Nationals), but he surprisingly struggled to the point where he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. While he’s never thrown hard in the past, Fister opened the season averaging just over 86 mph on his fastball and eventually landed on the disabled list in mid-May with a bout of forearm tightness. He returned about a month later but didn’t see much in the way of improved results. All told, the 31-year-old (32 in February) recorded an uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA across 15 starts in his second (and presumably final) season with the Nats. In those 15 starts, Fister logged 86 innings (about 5 2/3 innings per outing) and struck out just 48 hitters — an average of 5.01 per nine innings. Fister’s 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA all matched his unsightly ERA, and his 42 percent ground-ball rate out of the rotation this season was the lowest of his career.
While there’s clearly a long list of red flags surrounding Fister, the upside he brings to the table is also tantalizing. From 2011-14, Fister was one of baseball’s most underrated player, recording a pristine 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate across 750 2/3 innings. He landed on the DL a few times in that stretch for a strained lat muscle and a pair of strained muscles in his side — nothing arm-related — and averaged 188 innings per season in that time (201 per season when factoring in the playoffs, where he owns a 2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Fister is entering his age-32 season, and the significant drop in his velocity could be the beginning of a decline phase for the right-hander. However, it’s also worth noting that he handled relief work exceptionally well (2.12 ERA, 15-to-6 K/BB ratio in 17 2/3 innings) and maintained his usual brand of strong control in 2015 (2.1 BB/9). If Fister can reestablish some velocity or learn to alter his style to succeed with diminished heat, he could prove to be an excellent value on a one- or two-year contract. And, if he goes the one-year route, he could re-enter the free-agent market next winter in a definitively thinner starting pitching class.
I’d like to see him on the Phillies… He would be guaranteed to be traded to a contender in July, which he wouldn’t be guaranteed that on picking a team that wouldn’t flip him at the deadline.
People often say why would a FA pitcher want to sign on with a losing club… well, I think I just explained that.
Go to Philly… prove you’re healthy and effective, get traded to a playoff team come July… win/win for both the Pitcher and the club. Phillies get what would be their #1 starter thru July, then flip him for a few prospects, Fister gets to prove he’s good still, gets traded to a playoff team, then gets paid in the off-season on a multi-year contract.
Win/win
The Phillies got Hellickson and Morton to be the veteran inning eaters. The other 3 spots will go to the kids.
Nola, Eickhoff, Morgan, Oberholterz, Asher, Sevy Gonzalez and Velasquez could all possibly get MLB spots in the early part of the season, plus Lively, Eflin, Thompson and Appel are all possibilities toward midseason
Also, if he is successful on a crappy team, he is almost guaranteed to be traded, avoiding QO attachment as well…
Padres should be on him, they can use a starter and him pitching in Petco is a nice chance to rebuild value.
I hate the thought that every down pitcher should sign with San Diego or Pittsburgh and every down hitter should look to Colorado. A park will not magically fix a declining ball player. Pittsburgh’s pitchers rebound because of Ray Searage as the pitching coach not because of the park. James Shields had worse stats in SD than he did in Tampa or KC, so Petco is not a guarantee. Justin Morneau rebounded in Colorado because he stayed healthy in 2014, not because Coors is a magical elixir. Players rebound because they work hard, learn from their coaches, and regain their confidence not because of where they pitch.
Darren Balsley is a very respected pitching coach as well. Last year’s pitching staff underperformed, but Balsley has a track record of success with veteran pitchers. See: Wells, Williams, Garland, Marquis, Harang, etc.
Yeah but you’re high if you don’t think that every player in CO’s home/road splits don’t heavily favor home. Morneau’s definitely rethought his approach and started hitting a lot more singels and striking out less, but Arenado’s OPS is 125 pts higher in Denver, CarGo’s was 214 points higher., Blackmon’s was 195 points higher DIckerson’s was 360pts higher in ’14. HOWEVER, its not a place to rebuild value cause everyone in baseball knows the splits and won’t overpay for them. And its why barely anyone goes there in free agency. Coors pretty much is a magic elixir and we all know the elixir runs out once you cross state lines.
I read an article that explained it is not the field, but the air that makes Coors such a hitters park. It was explained that the thinner air reduces the resistance in the spin of the ball. That resistance is what makes the ball “break,dart,drop or curve .” Flatter pitches are easier to hit and hit hard.
If you’ve never golfed in high altitude, i recommend it. You can BOOOMB the ball
Pet I has changed guys.
Fences moved…. Scoreboard added(huge).
Just ask Shields and Kennedy about Petco.
Not saying it isn’t a pitchers park but it certainly isn’t the advantage it once was.
The Brewers would be a good fit for Fister. He would slot, by default, into the ace role and have a chance to prove himself before he gets traded at the deadline. If he doesn’t do well, they hang onto him and close out a season where they could conceivably lose close to 100 games. Low risk-high reward.
He will be a good fit with that rangers