MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince takes a crack at identifying the likeliest landing spots for outfielder Dexter Fowler. He likes the White Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Rangers and Cubs as the most plausible destinations. Castrovince ticks through a few other possibilities, including the Indians, who he says may not be able to afford the veteran. But Cleveland has a pretty significant need for an outfield bat, and I wonder if the team could squeeze him in with a backloaded contract structure. It’s worth recalling, too, that the organization has found money late in the offseason previously, although it’s also true that the remnants of the resulting deals (with the since-traded Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher) make for a fairly significant payroll constraint at present.
Let’s check in on a few other free agents that have yet to sign:
- The Rockies aren’t “especially aggressive” at present in their pursuit of free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. He had previously suggested that Colorado may be a finalist for Gallardo’s services, but now says it is not clear how serious the club is about chasing Gallardo. The veteran remains the most established starter left on the market.
- The Mets are still interested in adding to their bullpen, but probably not at the price that Tyler Clippard is likely to command, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. Puma previously tweeted that New York was keeping an eye on Tommy Hunter, but was not looking to go past a one-year deal. Hunter, though, has been looking for more.
- Righty Jerome Williams will miss time early in the year after undergoing a procedure on his Achilles tendon, Cotillo tweets. The 34-year-old hurler has logged better than 100 innings in each of the last four seasons, and could still hold appeal as a swingman/depth option.
I don’t want the Mets signing a guy who had an ERA over 4
You better tell the mets front office that
Out of place Met fan
Because ERA for relievers is an accurate measurement of ability?
Let’s not pretend that just because it’s not the best stat means it’s useless, though.
Out of place Met fan
Oh it’s definitely not useless. But it’s all about context, especially with RP and how volatile their ERA can be considering the short sample sizes they are subject to.
It’s too small of a sample. Quote his horrid xFIP and his highest walk rate in 5 years.
Clippard is a decent flyer because he is a year off a damn good season. He shouldn’t get a higher contract than Steve Cishek’s 2 year 10 million though.
With the addition of Bastardo and the return of Montero and possibly Mejia, I think the Mets are solid. But a 10 mill deal to Clippard isn’t absurd.
Out of place Met fan
That is solid reasoning to pass on him. With 23 pitchers (11 of which are RH bullpen arms) adding an additional arm is more luxury than necessity at this point.
I’m sure Jerome Williams phone was ringing none stop
Yeah he’s just holding out because teams don’t want to give him the 6th year he’s asking for
I don’t understand why the cubs haven’t just signed Austin Jackson yet. They don’t need Fowler, but they need a CF on the team beside Heyward (who’s not really even a CF). Also would be a mistake to re-sign Fowler and lose out on the draft pick, especially since they’ve already lost a couple.
Fowler is likely to sign very cheap or not until after the draft. He isn’t worth giving up a draft pick for.
He’s not going to sign after the draft. There’s a lot of potential landing spots for him.
Yes there is but to sign before spring he will have to drop his asking price or he can roll the dice and hope for an injury during spring. I have him and Kendrick both pegged for June signings unless both sign pillow contracts.
I like AJ and completely agree
Even though you hear the Cubs are done dealing almost everybody knows that is BS. Epstein says that every year – he did while in Boston. It measn nothing. I think he’s just letting the price tag get cheaper.
Love to be a fly on the wall and hear the offer the Rays came back with to the Cubs? My hunch is they asked for Odorizzi, McGee and Keirmaier. Maddon wanted to adopt Keirmaier when he was with the Rays and KK gives the Cubs a CF that allows Heyward to move back to RF. Plus it gives them 2 OFers that have probably the best gap speed in the league. This allows Schwarber to play more LF – KK can close some of the gap in LC.
But I’m sure the Rays asked for top 5 prospects and also the Cubs taking James Loney off their hands.
Rays firmly in the driver seat on this one.
In a world where the Rays trade Kiermaier, Odorizzi and McGee to the Cubs, Schwarber’s OF defense isn’t a concern for the Cubs any longer as he now plays his home games in St Petersburg.
With the DH likely heading to the NL in 2017 I doubt Schwarber goes anywhere. KK, Odorizzi, and McGee will require serious pieces coming back to the Rays but unless Archer replaces Odorizzi there is no way Schwarber is included. As was mentioned earlier I can see Loney being included and Soler and Baez being the headliners going back to the Rays. They are both very cheap for a couple of more seasons which increases there value. Soler is due for a break out year and Baez is going to be a beast once he learns a bit of plate discipline. The price pitching has cost this off season is the only reason I see the Rays getting a return like that. Odorizzi is solid but he doesn’t really overpower with his stuff and I don’t see him aging very well. The Cubs are set with Arrieta, Lester and Lackey for the first 3 spots in the rotation. I would prefer if they passed on any expensive rotation pieces. They could definitely use KK and McGee though. With Loney being included they could imo get both of them for Soler and a couple of their top prospects (and no Vogelbach is not a top prospect. He could be a throw in though to add that extra little bit for Tampa). Just my 2 cents.
Dh is not coming to nl anytime soon. They wouldn’t be able to enforce it right away cuz teams are not built yet for it. It would have to be a planned thing for years in advance. And commish said its not there yet
More like Odorizzi, McGee and Jennings.
Right now as it stands, Cubs have lost picks in 1st and 2nd round. If Fowler re-signs with Cubs, they will still have lost picks in 1st and 2nd round. If Fowler signs with someone else, I think they get the 2nd round pick back and will lose the comp pick for Fowler as that is a higher one. Since they made the qualifying offer, Cubs would have been satisfied to take Dexter back on a 1 year, $15 MM deal. I don’t think Fowler comes back for just one year. I also think Cubs are interested in how a potential Gold Glover like Almora will fit in for 2017.
I agree Jackson would be good for one year though he’s probably still holding out for a longer contract.
Indians should have an interest in signing Fowler. He is the best OF left in the FA market. However the price is probably too high. Plus losing a draft pick as well, it’s very unlikely. I think the Angels will ante up, LF needs a serious upgrade.
For the bazillionth time, the Cards won’t sign anyone. Hopefully, theyre saving up for the 2018 free agent class to make a splash then.
Fowler is what he is. A guy who historically has averaged 2 fWAR/season. A guy who can probably be counted on to do so for the next 2 or 3 years before decline kicks in.
With no draft pick attached, and with a team that has a clear need, I could see maybe 3/$50. That’s paying a FA premium with multiple teams bidding. More reasonable deal would be 2/$30 or 3/$40M.
Attach the value of the draft pick and you can knock off $5-10M (depending where the team sits on the draft board).
The best bets would be teams that have already surrendered (or have protected) their 1st and 2nd round picks. For teams like the Angels … I can’t imagine a scenario where they would be involved. Fowler would push them over the luxury tax limit AND cost them their 1st round pick. The need is there but there are much better ways to address the problem. My money would be on the White Sox.
Remember that Gentry and Nava do not have guaranteed contracts. So, with a bit of creativity they could stay under the luxury tax. Even if they do go over by a couple of million they would be first time offenders and the hit won’t be substantial. It’s not like there is a set fine or anything. I completely agree with them not losing the draft pick though. If any team needs to keep their first round pick its the Angels. Their farm is desolate. The White Sox do make the most sense for him. THey should have signed Span. He would have been perfect for the Angels.
Agreed with everything you say.
The luxury tax issue isn’t a money thing. The penalty is small and someone like Fowler would just barely push them over this year. Maybe a few million in penalties. I also agree that the ideal candidate would have been Span. I suspect that his hip is not doing well though and that’s why he signed for so little.
I’m amazed at how these Cyber Metrics are now the rage and have taken over baseball. I’m old school in either a guy can play or can’t play. A guy who hits 300 is still a star and a guy who bats 250 used to bat eighth in the lineup. ERA for a Relief Pitcher is worthless. One bad outing and his ERA balloons out of sight because they don’t pitch enough innings. I believe if you watch a player with your own two eyes you know a player from a scrub. No one buys a ticket to watch a guy take a base on balls. Either you can hit or you can’t. All the mumble jumble in the world won’t fool real fans.
May I have a copy of that?
I’m not sure if you are being sarcastic or not. In case you aren’t …
Teams that evaluate talent like you do end up in last place. The world has passed you by. Of course, you are free to evaluate a player any way that you would like. Identifying who is “better” is always subjective. However, there is a reason why EVERY major league team has guys working on models in an attempt to identify the best players. And I guarantee that NONE of them use RBI’s or assume that 300 hitter is a star and a 250 hitter is a scrub.
I would strongly recommend that you spend some time reading up on sabermetrics. Most concepts are intuitive and make sense. It’s crazy to me that before reading Moneyball nearly 12 years ago I absolutely bought into things like RBI’s and Wins as reasonable ways to view the world.
Milo Goes To College
If you don’t like change, you will hate extinction.
I agree with this guy, yes sabermetrics may show an actual production numbers, but really, I think these sabermetrics are all trashy. Guy has 5 losses in a row, he’s not doing good, I don’t need a xFIP or his walks per inning to tell that. It really should be just a simple game which makes the game good, no advanced calculations. To fans like most of us it should be just to watch the ball fly over the wall for a walk off homerun, diving catch. Not ERA and .OPS it’s a simple pastime.
Shelby Miller started last year going 5-1. He then lost 16 of his final 17 decisions. Yet he finished with a 3.02 ERA and 3.45 FIP. Is he garbage or might the losses have to do with the Braves fielding a lineup in which Jace Peterson ranked second in plate appearances and only Freddie Freeman had more than 10 home runs?
So batting a .250/.400/.550 hitter ahead of a .300/.310/.330 hitter is wrong?
But fans do pay to see runs scored and getting on base is important. Most good hitters also walk as they have a good batting eye
Bravo! Well said!
One would think that the White Sox would still be in on Fowler because they wouldn’t lose their 1st rounder (protected), they would lose the pick they got for the Giants signing Szamarzjia. Fowler could bump Eaton to RF or play RF himself and the Sox D would be improved. But, I think the Sox are more likely to sign Austin Jackson and play Eaton in RF.
What also worries me as a Sox fan is their situation at SS. Tyler Saladino might be passable in the field, but he is likely to be a black hole at the plate. I get Ian Desmond is probably an impossibility for these Sox, but thinking that and it being true would just contradict what the Sox have been saying about building this version of the team.
Despite the moves they have made this offseason, it feels very incomplete and unsatisfying.
I’m thinking Sox are high on Anderson. He will be in AAA for 2016. Could make the majors later this year if he progresses well.. Sanchez will probably platoon with Saladino to start.the year.
Ken Griffey Jr
Does these names ring a bell? All Hall of Famers. They went up to the plate to swing for the fences. Fans did not pay hard earned dollars to see them bunt or walk except for Mickey Mantle who was so fast he could lay down a drag bunt (a lost art today) and easily beat it out. The next time up he would hit a mammoth 500 foot home run off the facade at Yankee Stadium. Other than the Mick fans paid to see home run hitters. Not interested in 2 walks, a sacrifice, and a Punch
Jeter, Ichiro, Henderson, Lou Brock and so many others are also hall of famers (or future HoFers)in for their small ball abilities.
All of the guys you also mentioned have big OBP skills
Babe Ruth and Ted Williams are 3 and 4 all-time in walks. Pretty sure Ted doesn’t hit .406 by just being a hacker.