If your club is in need of some veteran middle infield talent, the market begins with two names: Ian Desmond and Howie Kendrick. The former is a shortstop and the latter a second baseman, and neither has really spent much big league time at other positions, so they aren’t exactly direct competitors. But it’s still interesting to consider which qualifying offer-bound free agent is best situated to cash in at this stage of the winter.
It long seemed like Desmond would be the more hotly pursued of the two players. He offers a rare power/speed combination for a shortstop and has been one of the game’s most valuable players at the position — including a .264/.317/.443 slash and over twenty home runs per season — since breaking out in 2012.
Desmond is also a more valuable defender than most realize. He’s received average metrics, give or take, with his strong range and powerful arm helping to make up for a steady helping of errors. And Desmond is not only a solid stolen base threat, but a highly-rated overall baserunner.
At 30 years of age, the highly-respected Desmond seems well-situated to cash in. There’s no denying that 2015 was a down year. After rating as a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player for each of the three prior seasons, Desmond accumulated just 2.0 rWAR and 1.7 fWAR as he struggled at the plate and in the field. On the other hand, that doesn’t look like a terrible downside scenario, and the highly athletic veteran ought to age well physically. I predicted he’d have to settle for $70MM to secure a fifth guaranteed year, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes felt he could reach $80MM over that term.
Kendrick is a bit older at 32, and plays the less valuable position defensively. But if Desmond feels like a player whose upside comes with some risk, then Kendrick seems to be a steadier option — at least at the plate.
While he’s never put up a monster offensive season, Kendrick owns a .289/.332/.418 slash since becoming a full-time regular in 2010. And he’s never strayed too far from that line: Kendrick has been a more-or-less league-average or better hitter in each of the last nine seasons. While he’s more of a 10/10 than a 20/20 type, he has topped out at 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases.
Kendrick has generally been a steady defender, with most of his campaigns ending in the black in the estimation of UZR and DRS, though he did slip in that regard last year. His baserunning isn’t an asset, overall, but isn’t a hindrance either.
In the aggregate, Kendrick offers reasonable expectations of being a quality, first-division regular. And when the stars have aligned, as in 2011 and 2014, he’s been even more than that. He ended 2015 with injury issues, and while they don’t figure to linger, that did seem to take some momentum out of his market. Dierkes predicted that Kendrick would be able to score four years and $50MM on the open market.
As always, demand is critical. We’ve heard varying degrees of interest from various clubs in both players. But clearly, neither has been targeted as strongly as might have been hoped. Then again, while there’s always a danger for a player of the music stopping with no chairs left, both Desmond and Kendrick seem to have plausible landing spots. The question, though, is how much leverage they’ll have to command the deals that were originally expected.
So, which player do you think is the more valuable free agent asset as things stand in the market?
Still think Kendrick. Always solid still has potential. Would love him to reunite with angels and have them platoon LF until mid season then maybe trade Wilson for LF as by then you can see how the rotation stands or if needed to stay under luxury tax line.
Potential for what? Howie Kendrick is the absolute definition of what you see is what you get.
I think Desmond, he does have good power numbers and good speed, I’m surprised no one has got him yet, he is able to play other positions, good luck to the both of them.
When has Desmond played other positions? Isn’t that what Boston said about Ramirez?
I’ve never really been in love with that idea, because he’s still a solid-enough shortstop.
He also has far more present athleticism than HanRam, so there’s more sense in it in that regard. But he’s not that level of hitter, so I don’t see the sense in moving his bat off short.
He’s played the outfield before, Desmond is more athletic than Ramirez, the market now is not big for shortstops, he may not get a contract till February or March, you never know
Desmond has played 7 innings in the OF. You can’t reasonably expect him to make the transition. His bat also has far less value as a OF than it does as a SS
I think the Dbacks get one of the two.
I think you’re right. The curious thing is who will the DBacks trade with to clear roster space?
I wouldn’t mind seeing Chris Owings competing with Cesar Hernandez for 2nd Base…
I’d like to see these polls taken before and after each article. Be curious to see what people think before they the information presented to them and then see if people change their minds based on reading the article. Be kinda interesting.
Desmond has higher ceiling while Kendrick has the higher floor. Which ever one I could get cheaper is the one i’d want
I agree regarding the ceiling/floor. I think the question of who lands more money depends on a lot of factors. Desmond should make more money in 2016, but it is possible he goes for a short deal to prove his value again. At least with Kendrick you know what you will get, so he will probably go for more years. I dont really see anyone giving desmond 5/80 right now. But he could get 2/32 and then a 3/48 afterwards if things go well.
Desmond has the higher upside, but a 4-5yr deal is scary if the team thinks his first half last yr might come back. The QO makes a 2yr deal much more costly, so I suspect a team could offer 3+1 vested option…but I wouldn’t.
The QO could increase the chances of a team with a protected first rounder going for a 2-4 yr on a huge buy low. This could also apply for a team that already lost its first pick. I realize his floor has dropped significantly but if you’re a team desperate for offense and low on coin then he could certainly be worth losing a second rounder. If he turns it around you could even trade him down the line.
As a Nats fan I may be biased, but I don’t think there is any way Desmond gets close to $70 million, let alone 80. While his power numbers over a 162-game season seem to suggest that value is realistic, when you watch him night in and night out, it’s painful to realize how much he’s continually regressed over the past three seasons. Notwithstanding the fielding miscues, at the plate he refuses to make any type of adjustments, especially in approach. The guy swings out of his shoes – on any pitch, in any count. He doesn’t shorten up with two strikes and has cut the field in half because he is unable (or refuses) to hit the ball to the opposite field with any type of authority; it’s just pull, pull, pull. His dismal RISP and “clutch” numbers really reflect his downswing.
I understand this is a harsh critique, but in this day and age where contact is a premium and strikeouts are detrimental, it’s likely Desmond is going to have to settle for a one or two year “prove it” deal to and demonstrate he make the necessary adjustments.
I always prefer a high floor to a high ceiling. I’d go howie because you just don’t know what you’re going to get from desmond
I’d rather take a chance on Desmond, but the draft pick compensation attached to them has to be really hurting their markets.
There is not a chance that somebody signs Desmond to a 5 year deal, he needs to rebuild value. 2 year deal at max.
That was our pre-postseason assessment of his earning power. The way the market has developed hasn’t been favorable, it doesn’t seem, I’ll agree with that.
My prediction is that Desmond goes to the White Sox, which would be a good move for both team and player. Kendrick ends up going back to the Angels, another good move for both team and player.
Kendrick is the steadier of the two while Desmond is has more potential upside (especially if he improves his defense).
I don’t see HK47 back in an Angels uni for 2 reasons
1) Comp pick
2) Self imposed cap($189m)
IMO HK shoulda grabbed the QO and taken the 1/$5.5m raise….I actually picked him to be 1 of 2 players who I thought would accept offer…Rasmus was the other….
As for Desmond I have not thought he would come close to $70-$80m this off season….at the start of last season it was plausible if he didn’t suck it up all season….he has to be kicking himself in the butt turning down that extension.