The Padres are monitoring the market for outfielder Yoenis Cesepedes, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, though his source characterizes a fit between San Diego and the Roc Nation client as unlikely.
San Diego has a vacancy in left field with the departure of Justin Upton now all but official, and Cespedes would fill that void more than capably. The Friars aren’t without in-house options at the position, of course, as prospects such as Hunter Renfroe and Rymer Liriano are nearly MLB-ready, and oft-injured but still-promising Wil Myers could slide back into the outfield from his currently projected role at first base (in theory, anyhow).
While the reserved nature of Lin’s connection between the two should temper speculation to an extent, it’s interesting that he points out ownership’s willingness to spend as much as $120MM on payroll, considering the fact that the team’s reported one-year deal with Alexei Ramirez will only push the 2016 payroll to about $100MM. Additionally, Cespedes won’t cost a draft pick, meaning the Padres wouldn’t have to forfeit one of the six picks they now possess in the top 100 selections of this June’s draft to sign him. From a purely speculative standpoint, the Padres wouldn’t even need to backload a contract too significantly in order to shoehorn Cespedes’ salary onto the 2016 ledger.
Then again, as Lin notes, there are longer-term payroll ramifications to consider. Matt Kemp is owed $21.75MM annually through 2019, and while the Dodgers are picking up $3.5MM of that commitment each year, that’s still an $18.25MM annual payout for San Diego. James Shields is owed $21MM this year and could command that same amount in both 2017 and 2018, depending on whether or not he exercises the opt-out provision in his contract following the upcoming season. (While such a scenario isn’t impossible by any stretch of the imagination, especially given the weak crop of starting pitching next winter, Shields would need to recover from some of the homer troubles that plagued him in 2015 to make such an outcome appear likely.) Additionally, the team has Melvin Upton Jr. on the books for $16.45MM in 2017 and will pay a portion of Jedd Gyorko‘s contract to the Cardinals in the 2017-19 seasons. If Shields declines to opt out of his contract, the Padres would run the risk of spending nearly half their payroll capacity on three players in 2017-18 following a Cespedes signing.
On the other hand, if Shields does take his release, the only money the team will have on the books beyond the 2017 campaign is that which is owed to Kemp and the fairly modest contributions they’ll be sending to St. Louis for Gyorko. That’s a much clearer long-term outlook than much of the league can claim. On paper, it would seem to create some degree of financial fit for Cespedes in the long run, though adding a second 30-something corner outfielder still carries risk. Cespedes is considered a plus defender in left field, though, quite unlike Kemp. His floor has to be considered significantly higher than that of Kemp at this stage of their respective careers.
While all of this is highly theoretical, the interest — however faint — does in some ways highlight the difficulties that this offseason’s rash of opt-out clauses could create for the teams that issued them in the future. A hypothetical decision on whether or not to pursue Cespedes would be made considerably easier if the Padres knew exactly what type of financial commitments are going to be on the books beyond the 2016 season. However, the aforementioned risk of allocating 50 percent of its payroll to just three individuals could potentially be a huge detriment to any pursuit.
So they’re will to give up a pick when they could of signed basically the same player with no pick in upton?
You’ve got it backwards.
Neither Upton nor Cespedes would cost the Padres a pick.
But they would gain a pick by signing Cespedes instead of Upton.
Oh yeah you’re right i totally forgot ! thought he had a pick Lol
They don’t have to give up a pick for cespedes.
No cespedes doesnt cost a pick bcuz he was traded midseason
Oops…. No pick attached to Cespedes
Padres wouldn’t give up a pick for Cespedes. The bigger question is why pay Cespedes about the same money as the two year younger Upton? With Upton, at least, you get 2-3 years before the inevitable decline in performance starts at 30 years old. Cespedes is already 30 years old.
A.J. Preller may have add or short term memory loss. What sense does it make to give cespedes over 100 mil when they’re so far from competing. They’re at best, even with the addition of yoenis, finishing fourth in the division
Yeah I don’t really understand this either. Are they just trying to look for someone to send to the all star game this year so they don’t embarrass themselves in front their home fans?
Ha… They “gained” a pick for Upton and Cespedes would not cost one.
Which is why this makes sense.
Middle of the order bat that plays good defense and doesn’t clog the bases AND they still have a boatload of picks in the next draft.
Get it done Preller!
Ah, now it all makes sense.
“Doesn’t clog the bases”. – Dusty Baker, is this you?
It does kind of make sense.. doubt he will make them a competitor this year, but they’d be much better with him than not.
As for Shields I am fairly certain he opts out. In a market where Ian Kennedy can land a 5/70 deal, Shields should be able to get more than 2/42 of what would remain on his contract.
He may opt out but I highly doubt it has any thing to do with Kennedy’s contract, Kennedy and Shields were similar pitchers this last year. I don’t know how Kennedy getting 14 AAV as a 31 year old would have any affect on Shields getting more than 21 million AAV as a 35 year old.
Yes this. Kennedy is a considerably more valuable asset than Shields because of his age and peripherals (Shields is older and declining fast). And even so, Kennedy’s AAV was well below QO territory. I think Shields stays unless he has a really good year, which is always possible.
Shields had a better K rate, better GB rate, better FIP, better pitch values, better HR rate. [sarcasm]But other than THOSE minor things, Kennedy’s peripherals were better… [/sarcasm]
All the publicly visible projection systems see Shields around 3WAR in 2016.
How does a guy who has a negative WAR over the last three seasons have ‘considerably more value’ than anyone, much less a guy who is a better pitcher than him in Shields? Kennedy is worthless, and that contract will be an albatross.
My point wasn’t to compare Kennedy to Shields, but to point out teams pay a lot for pitching, even pitchers such as Kennedy who didn’t have the greatest of years. Yes he finished strong, but still his overall numbers didn’t scream he’d get 5/70 on open market. hell many people thought he’d accept the QO.
My post was in response to seamaholic, who did compare the two (mostly incorrectly)..
No pick attached to Cespedes
Cespedes negotiated a no compensation pick attached to him with his original contract in Oakland. No matter if he was traded or not, he was not allowed to teciev right a qualifying offer
It was actually in his contract that he had to be released so he couldn’t be offered the QO. But they re-did his contract with the Mets and that part was taken out.
No, there was just a provision added that allowed the mets to negotiate with him. Since his contract forced them to release him, they wouldn’t have been able to negotiate a contract with him until the following year. He still wouldn’t have been able to receive a QO. Doesn’t matter much since it’s basically just contract semantics but still
Monitoring = Padres interested if Cespedes decides to take below market deal or sign for 1 year. UNLESS, they can dump Kemp and his contract on an AL team that wants him to DH.
I have a better chance of being traded to an AL team to be a DH than Kemp. No, the Padres are stuck unless they want to pay him to play elsewhere.
Kemp has a much better chance of being the Padres’ DH in 2017 than you do though!
That’s insane to think Kemp isn’t tradeable! They only owe him a $18.25 mil. If they eat 3 mil then he is extremely valuable as a DH in the AL. $15 mil for a player with his ability is definitely below this current market value, and with the ability to DH he won’t get hurt as much. If the Red Sox were able to unload Crawford, the Padres can definitely unload Kemp.
The Padres must be really low on Renfroe. He would be the heir-apparent to a corner OF gig, but they seem loathe to bring him up and give him a shot, and there was talk earlier in the offseason of the Pads shopping him.
to the Padres:
3B-OF Cody Asche
P Ben Lively
to the Phils:
OF Melvin Upton, Jr.
OF – Hunter Renfroe
Padres don’t get much but salary relief if that helps seal a deal with Cespedes.
Upton is a 2-year anchor that doesn’t hold back their rebuild and the Phils reportedly have always liked Renfroe.
As a dynasty owner of Renfroe, I’d love him in Philly. As a Padres fan, I hope they hang onto him.
How bout renfroe and upton for asche and zach eflin back with ben lively makes more sense
I love how many people corrected the guy. Half the comments on here are people correcting his mistake. We get it unless anyone else wants to chime in and help clear things up again
I love how many people come on here talking about the pick attached to cespedes. He should’ve read the article before commenting on it- he obviously would’ve learned something.
I don’t get why Cespedes would come to the Friars. They should be looking to rebuild their depleted Farm System after last years trading spree. They are so many holes they need long term answers for and thinking of going for it this year or next is foolish. Since this is an even year, we all know the Giants will win the World Series! j/k
The Padres have been left behind in this years free agent market and trading season. The Dbacks made substantial moves and are expected to finish ahead of the Pads. This move, if it actually happens, may be used more for appearances of trying to put a competitive team on the field and trying to keep up with the rest of the NLWest. I’m all for it.
The problem w/ the Padres is they made a huge splash in free agency and major trades then didn’t let it play out and dumped a lot of those players too soon inc Bud Black.
I could see them doing something like that. But at the same time, the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks are still all much better teams, even if they do add cespedes. Unless they plan on trading him after a season like they did with Kimbrel to get more prospects.
Hunter Renfroe is very much in the future plans, otherwise he would have been dealt in the 2014-15 offseason. He struggled in AA and only straightened things out near the end of the season when brought up to AAA. During his time in AAA, he was in a hitter’s league, facing depleted pitching staffs due to expanded MLB rosters. The kid has a future with the Padres, but he will need to wow management to make the team early in 2016. I’m expecting that we won’t see him until September.
They are looking at Cespedes as an investment commodity and a PR move, not as a building block for the future. If they can sign him to a reasonable deal with trade rights or an opt-out clause, there is a relief valve to move him when other options are present.
He actually turned it around pretty significantly in June in San Antonio, which earned him the promotion to Triple-A. But expecting a guy who’s always going to have a lot of swing and miss and who has much less game experience than most 24-year-olds out of big-time college programs to be ready to start this coming season in the Majors would require a serious lack of intelligence by the front office. I think you’re right that it’ll be late in the year before he sees Petco unless he completely forces their hand by June.
Hope Aj Preller get it done we need a power bat now that the bullpen is set with Rodney , they need to get Cespedes , hope they can get David Freese to play 3rd base … low cost and power 3rd baseman… Get it Done Aj preller and we can get in the race for the NL West.
“bullpen is set with Rodney”. – cool
Yep. Best line of the week.
I liked “…David Freeze…low cost and power 3B”. That made me chuckle, tho I agree with the low cost.
Yes, this gave me a good laugh.
Yeh….Rock Star GM…. YOu got a lot of faith.
Wow buddie your dreamin big time.
Cespedes will be on the trading block by June after you realize the vast expanse you call Petco eats up his power. And, you’ll lose him far earlier due to his frustration over the same.
Next, we have the washed up Big Arrow! Simply a mop up guy, not setting your bullpen as you dream on.
And for your power 3rd baseman.. in Freese! What do the Pads know that every other major league team doesn’t.
With recent news out of Milwaukee purporting the desire of All-Star catcher Jonathon Lucroy seeking a trade to a contender, along with the reported availability of star right fielder Ryan Braun on the rebuilding Brewers, would it not make some sense for the White Sox to investigate a trade for both.
I would gladly take the lot of them on the White Sox provided they didn’t have to include either of their top two prospects in any trade, #1 shortstop Tim Anderson or #2 right-handed pitcher Carson Fulmer. The guaranteed money owed to catcher Lucroy and Braun would be comparable to the likely dollar investment required to sign free agent left fielder Yoenis Cespedes alone.
Having 29 year old Lucroy fill the catching position for two seasons at the cheap sum of $9.25M and Braun as a RF/LF/DH for 5 years through 2020 for $96M seems reasonable in today’s MLB market. Braun’s contract also comes with a mutual $15M option for 2021 ($4M buyout) that might line up favorably with the long term commitments already in place with Chris Sale, Jose Abreu, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton. Both Brewers have health concerns attached to them but still seem like a risk worth pursuing pending the return of assets that would be required with their acquisitions.
Do you know Braun’s history? Or is winning a few more ball games all that matters? Sox fans are a proud bunch. They would brag (and they should) about how big Frank was clean and played the game right.
A Braun trade has come up on SSS ( Sox blog) before. The majority of fans shot it down. Not only because of his steroid abuse. But because he is bad human being. To cheat. Lie right to your fans face. Get them to support your lie while you try to pin it on the guy transporting the sample. Well, that takes a person who is bankrupt of decency.
History fades. Unless you’re Barry Bonds, fans forget a lot of things if a guy is hitting dingers.
Your not gonna get either of those two if your not willing to give up talent. Braun is probably a better risk than Cargo. Lucroy is a rare commodity, a catcher who can hit, made rarer by the friendly contract. It would probably require both those prospects.
If you were a GM and could get either Lucroy or Norris tomorrow by giving up the exact same package, would you definitely opt for Lucroy?
Just swallow your pride and rebuild already. One power bat, a league average at best SS, and a 40 year old reliever will not make you competitive in that division.
I say the team allocates that money on other needs. I think we could use another starter hopefully someone low cost like Doug FIster and sign a 3B like David Frese. I’d also like to see them get Steven Pearce to play 1B on a short term deal and move Myers back to the Outfield probably where he would be a better defender. That would move Solarte to a super utility role to back up Spangenberg and Frese whenever they need it. Signing Cespedes would be neat, but the team has other needs it needs to fill first.
I would rather have Upton in left, younger and close to same production. Not sure why they never even tried to sign him. Dude was solid.
Would rather Friese at 3B then signing Cespedes…and Solarte as super utility guy. Use Renfroe or that other kid that we got from the Red Sox for LF.
Why delegate Solare to super utility when he has better offensive stats than Friese and Spangenberg? Spangenberg is quick but has no power. Solarte’s defense will surprisingly good last year, Very comparable, statistically, to Headley’s. Why take him off the field?
Why delegate Solare to super utility when he has better offensive stats than Friese and Spangenberg? Spangenberg is quick but has no power. Solarte’s defense will surprisingly good last year, Very comparable, statistically, to Headley’s. Why take him off the field? I don’t understand.
Not sure what you were watching when he was in the field last year, but “good” is not an appropriate adjective for his defense. He has about the slowest first step of any infielder in the game, his arm is mediocre and his positioning (which is a learnable skill at least) is often absurd. None of the metrics support the idea that he is anything but below average at 3B, and the underlying athleticism and skills don’t give much hope for improvement.
(This should most definitely NOT be taken as an endorsement for bringing in David Freese, or any underlying faith in Spangenberg’s ability to be a starting 2B.)
Freeze is too injury prone.
Must be the cold weather.
It still blows my mind that the Dodgers FO was not only able to unload Matt Kemp, but get value in return.
I see far too many parallels between Kemp and Cespedes. High K, low BB, power guy. Has had time in CF but best suited to the corner – not great range (and like normal ball players, will likely decline with age) but a cannon of an arm. Questionable first step/instincts. Things turned ugly for Kemp, fast – will Cespedes be the same?
Hopefully he can avoid the injury bug.