Cubs ace Jake Arrieta believes he will get a six- or seven-year deal if the Cubs don’t extend him before he becomes eligible for free agency following the 2017 season, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. “If we don’t work out a deal here, and I go to free agency, I will get six or seven years. No doubt about that,” Arrieta says. “I’d like to stay in Chicago, but if they don’t want me, somebody will.”
Arrieta’s comments appear consistent with reporting surrounding extension talks between him and the Cubs this past offseason, and they suggest there continues to be a wide gulf between player and team about the length of a potential deal. In early March, Jon Heyman reported that Arrieta was seeking seven-plus years, while the Cubs wanted to sign him for a shorter duration. In his latest article, Nightengale notes that, according to Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras, the Cubs weren’t willing to offer more than three or four years. Boras emphasizes that the two sides remain far apart.
“It’s like being in a museum and seeing contemporary art on one side, and the Mona Lisa on the other,” says Boras. “We’re both in the same museum. We both agree that the art is great. But we’re in two different hallways.”
The 30-year-old Arrieta, meanwhile, notes that free agent aces in their early thirties (such as David Price and Zack Greinke) have received six- or seven-year deals on the open market. Nightengale also notes that Arrieta currently has less wear on his arm than many pitchers his age, having only pitched 826 1/3 innings in the big leagues.
If Arrieta reaches free agency without signing an extension, he will only recently have turned 32 by the time his new deal begins, so Greinke (who is currently 32) seems like a reasonable comparable. Greinke has a longer track record of success than Arrieta currently does, but Arrieta’s current level of dominance (which has already resulted in a no-hitter this year after a brilliant stretch run in 2015) would appear to be more than enough for him to cite Greinke as a comparable pitcher. There is, however, risk in waiting to get to the point where he can cash in as Greinke did — Arrieta is currently only signed to an arbitration-avoiding $10.7MM deal for 2016.
Not like if minor league innings cause any less wear on the arm than ML innings
Greinke has 1100 more innings if you count majors and minors, yet is only 2 years old.
Damn. I guess 3 extra years worth is a lot lol.
Lotta innings for 2 year old though ;] haha
If someone wanted to toss me $200 million when I was a toddler, I’d be a happy man.
I can see him getting a 5 year offer. But to go into his late thirties is too much.
Sorry, Jake. Glad to have ya, but no chance you’re getting 7 from the cubs. Should have been good at pitching before you were 28.
This whole situation, regarding the Cubs signing Arrieta to an extension, has been a sort of strange case, to say the least.
The difference in opinions and the discussions really took off towards the end of last season, continued throughout the offseason and into spring training.
Most thought (fans, writers, talk shows, etc.) that it would be wise to hold off extending him, to see how he comes back after a long-heavy workload in 2015. Unless of course, they’d be able to sign him to a 4-5 year deal worth 85-95 million; and no surprise Arrieta turned those offers down.
I believe the Cubs will sign him to a big extension in the upcoming offseason, when it’s not expected the Cubs will be spending money on outside players in a weak class.
How much would they be willing to give him remains to be seen. But, they gave Jon Lester $155m and that was before they were good, before all the big money they got and will continue to get from advertising, as well as their future cash cow of basically a Cubs Disney World being built around Wrigley.
My guess right now, 6-7 years 170-190, plus take into account there will probably be opt-outs. Definitely a lot of dough to dish out, but if he keeps going on this track, they’ll want to keep him a Cub for as long as they can, especially if they win the WS beforehand.
You know that they took into account all the additional revenue they’d be getting from the field upgrades in considering their future budgets, right? It’s not like they are just gonna be all, “holy ****, a bunch of extra money”.
Exactly! There is no way in hell I see them going 6-7 years 170-190! Lester has a way better track history and Grienke I’m still a little surprised he got that. A lot can happen from now and the end of 2017 so we will see!
Looks like Greg Maddux situation all over again. The Cubs must stop being tightasses and give the man his damn money. Arrieta has been, and continues to be the MVP of the league. Who cares how old he will be during the last few years of his extension? The entire baseball world is watching you, Cubs organization. Don’t **** this one up.
This post is so misguided I’m tempted to think it’s sarcasm.
Maddux was 27 not 32. Bryce Harper is the MVP, not Arrieta. And the person who is paying him probably cares how old he’ll be the last few years.
The person who is paying Arietta should understand the importance of retaining him. The Cubs have no chance of a championship without their Cy Young Ace and MVP on the mound. This kind of idiotic frugality has gotten the Cubs no where in the modern era. Not only should they give him 6 or 7 years, they should go out and find another ace-caliber starter to add to their rotation. They would be WS contenders every year during his tenure, with a few rings back-to-back. Is that not worth a few so-so years and $30 MM dollars to the Cubs?
Yeah, if you could guarantee that, i’m sure it would be. Do you watch baseball? The best team is not always the winner. The dodgers had 2/3 of the of the best pitchers last year and didn’t even make it to the NLCS.
You’re so misguided and you just come off as a bitter sox fan who can’t get over that they’re a second class citizen in their city.
I agree (and hope we are right). They have him through 2017 season, so a 7 year deal would buy out 1 year of arbitration 6 years (his age 38 year). I hope we can agree on a 6 year deal ($165-$175mm) and avoid the age 38 season ..
why should the cubs throw $170mil at arietta when certainly Lester has not lived up to expectations so far, arietta could fall apart.
Wait what? Lester was a 5 win pitcher last year. I’m sure he lived up to their expectations
Don’t do it.
Cubs seriously need to trade Jake before he straight up leaves.
they’re just waiting for somebody to figure out how many unproven prospects and salary dump major leaguers it takes to equate to a pitcher you can win a world series with
i must admit the math on that kinda’ makes my eyes cross
Cubs aren’t trading Jake for the same reason the Angels aren’t trading Trout… they could get a lot back, sure… but not nearly as much as they’d be giving up
Difference is Trout isn’t two years from free agency and isn’t all but certain to leave as soon as he is able.
Rooster I feel you I’m sure they can get a pretty great package if they do but that’s tough too! I have no idea how your minor league pitching is as of depth but I’m sure Theio will do the right thing he no dummie! And like jkim said stay the hell away from his age 38!!!!
Arrieta’s comments indicate he isn’t effing around. Sprinkle in a little Boras and we can surmise he is going to free agency unless the Cubs are willing to make him nearly the highest paid pitcher on earth. I suspect the k negotiating window will be open up until opening day next year for the Cubs. After that, the farewell tour begins.
Bill your right he’s not effing around from the sounds of this going on lately mixed in with Borras!!! I will say if the Cubs win it this year see you later Arrieta!!!
You know, I’m going to get blasted for this and I’m partially throwing up just typing it, but if I’m the Cubs, not only do I NOT look to sign a 30/31-year old power pitcher to a deal that will run into his late=30’s and possibly early-40’s, but I am looking to deal him in the offseason. Here’s my reasoning:
(1) The return, even on a 1-year rental would be HUGE in terms of prospects. Prospects that you could then use to go get someone along the lines of Oakland’s Sonny Gray (under-30, cost controlled, high rotation SP arm).
(2) I don’t know if I trust pitchers over 30 anymore. All these power guys seem to go from absolutely unhittable to (at best) pedestrian around their age 30-seaons. Even Lester isn’t a shutdown starter (you have to expect him to give up 2-3 runs per game). Combine that with the fact that Arrieta is going to want Scherzer-or better-money, do you want that albatross on the books when Bryant & Russell come up as free agents?
I’m not saying “do it” but it is something to consider… [leans over and throws up a little].
I agree with you but they would never trade him honestly. Teams that would want him are contenders with a good amount of leftover money which there already aren’t many of and also would really hit the Cubs World Series chances the second he walked out the door. Plus, every player plays better in their contract year and if that holds true for arrieta I don’t even know what the stats would be like, the Cubs hoping for that would basically be worth holding onto him just for that one year. But either way honestly the way I see it the sooner we sign him and can try to convince him to do a 5 year extension which brings him to what 36 because of next year already being locked in? I mean you have to think he wouldn’t be absolutely horrible at 36 considering the limited mileage on his arm although people bring up a good point about the minors innings being the same as the majors innings lol. I think paying him a crazy amount of money through his age 36 season is the best case scenario for the Cubs right now
Cubs hold all the power. They can ride his arm out and he can walk away with little to nothing, especially if he blows out his elbow.
Try meeting in the middle at 5 years. No chance he will be this effective into his late 30s. He’ll lose velocity and that will affect his other pitches and K/9.
That’s my other “logic” with today’s baseball business-minded GMs. If they’re not going to sign him, pitch him harder, squeeze as much baseball value out him as possible trying to win and then let him walk, secretly hoping he blows something and then (1) he’s not their problem and (2) they look like geniuses. Totally evil.
Hey bykoric you couldn’t have said it any better!! When I was done reading this article I was thinking the exact same thing it sucks but its the effin truth!!!
So what’s a reasonable offer for Arrietta..? He’s making $10.7M this year. The problem is he doesn’t have a solid track record and only recently has become an ace pitcher. Is that an anomaly or is that what a team would get for the next 5-7 years? If someone does go 7 years, I expect the last 2 years would have buyout clauses.
If you’re in the “not signing David Price was the best deal the Cubs didn’t make” camp (like me), you surely can’t think that the length and value of an Arrietta contract is good for the Cub organization’s future. Arrietta is a great pitcher but maybe a “good pitcher” is good enough.
C’mon Cubs, you signed Zobrist through his Social Security years, why not Arrieta too?