While a deep playoff run could improve the Blue Jays’ odds of re-signing one of right fielder Jose Bautista or designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, chances are neither will return to Toronto next season, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (video link). The fact that the Jays are already dedicating a significant chunk of payroll to a pair of over-30 players in catcher Russell Martin and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could deter them from handing out another massive contract to an aging player. Bautista and Encarnacion are two of the best hitters in the sport, but their respective ages (35 and 33) are working against them. Rosenthal reported last month that the Jays might only be willing to give Bautista a Yoenis Cespedes-esque deal (three years, $75MM), which is a good distance from his desire to land at least a four-year contract worth in the $30MM-per-annum range. As for Encarnacion, extension talks between him and Toronto went dormant in March.
Here’s more from Rosenthal:
- The Nationals have until June 15 to exercise the two-year option in president of baseball operations/general manager Mike Rizzo’s contract, and signs point toward the team picking it up. The Rizzo-built Nationals haven’t won a championship, but they have ranged from respectable to elite in recent individual seasons. They currently have the majors’ third-best record since 2012, including an 8-1 start this year, and possess one of baseball’s premier farm systems. In the unlikely event Washington doesn’t retain Rizzo, Rosenthal doesn’t think he’d have a difficult time finding another job.
- Although Padres president Mike Dee gave second-year GM A.J. Preller a vote of confidence last month, Friars ownership expects better from the team than what it has shown during a 3-8 start. If such poor play continues, it could put Preller’s job in jeopardy. However, as Rosenthal notes, the Padres hired Preller because of his eye for young talent, which the club is in position to accrue in droves over the next several months. Preller’s Padres have three of the top 25 picks in June’s draft and are expected to be highly active when the international free agent spending period begins July 2. They could also add more youth by trading certain veterans this summer.
- With hard-throwing righty Lance McCullers on the shelf because of inflammation in his pitching shoulder, the Astros might have to address the lack of velocity in their rotation at some point, Rosenthal opines. Even though the Astros have the reigning American League Cy Young winner in lefty Dallas Keuchel, he isn’t known for overpowering velocity. Neither are fellow starters Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, Collin McHugh or Scott Feldman. Of course, in addition to McCullers, Houston had another young, in-house flamethrower in Vincent Velasquez, but it traded the early 2016 sensation to the Phillies in a package for reliever Ken Giles during the offseason.
Why do people keep posting that tired refrain that Bautista asked for $30 million over 5 or 6 seasons when both Bautista and the Jays have said that is not true. Do they think if they lie long enough that people will believe it? Well, WMD.
Preller will last as long as most of the guys he signed. That is until the trade deadline. He will get to draft and to sign the IFA and trade away the “stars” he signed and then when the Padres are 20 games out on August 1st he will be shown the door.
Padres need to give AJ a chance to actually execute his plan. If theo Epstein had been judged by the ‘product on he field’ in years 1-3, he would have been fired before finishing his 2nd season.
I give Preller credit for making a ‘run’ I’m year 1 (almost no one was criticizing the deals made for Kent, upton, kimbrel, et al).
Padres fans should be careful of what you ask for. If your expectations are that ‘any’ GM can create a winner in 1.5 seasons, you are going to be chasing ghosts every year…
Give him at least ‘3’ years (Theo’s 3rd year was highlighted by a 3rd straight last place finish) … 3-5 years is what it takes to build a solid foundation.
AJ will cash in well before July 31 (look at what he got in return for kimbrel)… Let him do the job you hired him to do
Theo didn’t spend a bunch of money and trade prospects the first few years. Not a very good comparison.
Who is Kent? Do you mean Matt Kemp? Plenty of people criticized that. In fact I think some people were calling it one of the worst trades in recent history. Overall, many people questioned those trades because no one thought those moves made them a competitive team.
That was my point about my giving him credit for making a ‘run’ in year 1. I do not remember too many people being critical of his early moves (myself included).
Theo actually did blow $52mm on ‘Edwin Jackson’ In year 1. He also didn’t protect Delamahue and let him get away to the rockies… He also made some unpopular (at the time) trades (a la trading for a losers named arrietta and strop, trading 40% of his starting rotation 3 years in a row before 7/32 (it’s how we got guys named strop,
Russell, Grimm, N Ramirez, arrietta, Hendricks who are on the 25 man roster) bHe/tom ricketts asked fans to be patient and stand by their plan (we did, but it was brutal … Even for a fan base used to losing).
Yes, sorry, ‘Kemp’ not ‘Kent’ (autospell checked to Kent)
My point about 3-5 years is real. If Padres fans do not have the patience to let ‘anyone’ (fill in the name) have the time to execute a plan, then good luck too you (I don’t think you guys have the $$ to buy your way to a 25/40 man roster vs building ground up).
Think about how many people on the ‘planet’ there are who have proven they can do it, the list is pretty short. If you don’t like Preller, ask cashman, Epstein, duquette, dombrowski if they could win 88 games consistently in 18 mo. All I am saying is you have a pretty good guy, give him the time he (or anyone) deserves
Question: if Preller had ‘not’ tried what he did in year 1 would Padres fans them have then criticized him for not trying to build a winner? The 2016 conversation this is the same conversation as it would have been 12 months ago.
Actually Theo did spend some money ($52mm to Edwin Jackson), and make some very unpopular trades for ML busts named arrietta, strop, and others who he later flipped.. He traded away DJ Delamahue and Zach Godley… He also traded (i.e. ‘ate’ major contracts in) zambrano, marmol, Soriano for basically nothing, but knew he had to change the culture and not ‘block’ development of future talent (that he didn’t have at the time).
Theo also finished dead last for 3 years in a row and traded away 40% of his rotation every year at the trade deadline for a bunch of unknowns named Grimm, N Ramirez, Hendricks, arrietta, strop, Russell (the only ‘top 5 prospect’ from any team… Unless you want to count Mike Olt)
Hindsight is 20/20 for non Cubs fans, but when this was going on, ‘all’ we had was a request from theo and tom ricketts to be patient and ‘we will do this right.’ It was brutal … Brutal for even a fan base that is well versed on ‘losing.’ In the same breath, what they were saying made sense (the ‘trust me’ was the hard part)
You Padres fans can criticize Preller if you want, but who else are you going to hire to win 86 games regularly? Dombrowski, cashner, douquette, Epstein who would agree to a <18 mo timetable based on where the player development program was
I wonder what you guys would be saying if AJ had started what he did this offseason last offseason? I suspect you would have been calling for him to be fired just like you are now…
You don't have the $$ to buy yourselves to the front (vs player development), yet it sounds like you don't have the patience to let your farm system grow. You are sounding like a college grad who wants the big salary, but is does not understand that you have to pay your dues, learn the job, make mistakes, listen to others to get there .. I wish you guys luck (maybe this is why Jed Hoyer and Jason McCleod were so willing to jump from Sam Diego to Chicago)
(…who would agree to an 18-24 mo timetable…)
I agree with your comments about Padres fans being impatient. I personally know some fans that are just like that; they expect the instant gratification of a winning ball club in a short time. The truth is, it doesn’t (usually) work like that.
For me personally, it seems like the owners reflect the fans in their impatience, so it makes it easy to see why they went on a spending spree last year.
But it’s been like this for a while. This is the same franchise that expected Anthony Rizzo to be the messiah right out of the gate from the from minors, but then basically gave up on him shortly after. They also were adamant against not trading chase headly after his “breakout” 2012 in order to keep another “star” from leveling the team, but then traded him anyway the best season when he was much less valuable.
When it comes to the Padres, people either want everything right away, or nothing at all. There’s no sense of patience.
I personally hope that they give Preller more time to do his thing. If he ends up getting fired this season because everyone is calling for his head it’ll just be another big step backwards.
Great point about fans emulating the ownership. It was theo and Tom Ricketts ‘together’ who communicated the plan and only ‘ever’ gave one vision to the fans. They had a common vision for what they wanted, how (in general) t approach it and a timeframe that they have themselves accountable for..
I suspect most fans are very similar (we Cubs fans chased ‘ghosts’ for 100 years). We even had a model to learn from 4 hrs away (the dreaded, hated, despised, yet respected cardinals)… We (or our ownership over the years) just were not self aware enough to realize that our desire to win didn’t have any foundation whatsoever …we chased small sample sizes as if they represented real data … We overreacted to the natural cycles of ( ) and (-) ..We blamed players..
Anyway. My son lives a block from petco. We (albeit we are Cubs fans) love going to Padres games when we are in town. I suspect AJ could use more help in the front office (theo has Jed Hoyer, Crane Kenney (the business/$$ guy) and Jason McCloed (player development), but I think you have a good guy in AJ Preller
If you’re looking to compete in 3-5 years, then do that, don’t try to win now.
Why do you credit him for making a run? It was a poorly timed, thought out, and executed plan. That team wasn’t close to competing. So for him to make his one year run he traded a large amount of salary and young talent from the team. That is just a poor decision to make for the team as it was constructed.
And hindsight is 20/20 for cubs fans? What does that even mean? Any intelligent fan that follows the Cubs knew that Theo was brought in to completely change the entire organization. From coaching to development to players. Everyone who wasn’t just some casual fan knew that it was going to be some bad years while they shed bad contracts and worked to rebuild an organization that was in desperate need of it.
If Theo had come in and traded young players like Rizzo and wasted a bunch of payroll space on someone like BJ Upton, Albert Pujols, etc. etc, that would be more like what Preller tried to do. Which would have been stupid, because much like the Padres last year, that cubs team was no in a position to be competitive.
fangraphs.com/blogs/the-matt-kemp-trade-feels-like…
If you thought the matt kemp and other trades were good, that says all I need to know about your actual baseball knowledge.
You are totally right. You guys should fire Preller and start all over with the same rules and expectations with ‘whoever’ you think will take the job
(I am just saying ‘so what, he tried to make a run in year 1’, with what you traded and got for kimbrel, with the #1 you got for upton, it wasn’t as bad as you guys are making out to be.
Go back and read what I said about ‘with what Padres fans are saying this year, I suspect you guys would be saying the same thing no matter what he did …
Also read about how ‘all was not perfect with theo in the first 3 years.’ For all we knew he traded for a .141 hitting Rizzo for cashner, was adding a bunch of cast offs, was losing worse than we had already been losing…
Anyway, good luck to you.
As a Padre fan, my criticism with Preller isn’t that he tried to win in Year 1. It’s the poor methodology he used.. Players out of position, no real Shortstop, no lead off guy. He never addressed these items, despite trading the farm and throwing money around. A truly poorly constructed team.
It could have been worse too. The Red Sox bailed Preller out by making a competing offer for Sandoval.
Bingo. You hit the nail right on the head.
Intelligent response.. Your position breakdown is fair (the year 1 attempt may have had too many holes).
Not knowing the depth of your farm system and how far away developing talent might be, I would suggest that you should give Preller 2-3 to close gaps and build depth (if you go total rebuild, you will be able to stock up with cashner, Norris, Ross (if healthy), Myers)..
If I am not mistaken, the kimbrel deal cost the Padres maybin, Quentin, # 4 prospect (wisler) and #16 prospect (parabeck(sp))… When you traded kimbrel, you guys got back your current #1 (Margot), #2 (guerra), #6 (Allen) and #19 (asuarte(sp?))…
The ugly money was taking M upton as part of kimbrel deal. J Upton (in my mind) was worth the gamble…
I agree, if your talent pool is out of balance, he might have been plugging holes in the dike, but I think the Padres were (and are) a tweener team. Good enough not to ‘tank’, but not good enough to where 1 season can get you to 85 wins .. With what (I think) you guys gave up with the 2015 deals and what you got back out, I don’t think it derailed an ‘acquire talent’ strategy and (one guys opinion) was worth a run..
Totally agree, that he dodged a major bullet w/Sandoval (although)
Would also say that ‘tanking’ strategy sounds great, but there are no promises even if you have a bunch of top 100 ‘prospects.’ The 3 years were miserable. No one ‘knew’ the plan would work. Of course right now, everyone on the bandwagon are saying ‘what a great plan’, but there was not anywhere near unanimous belief the plan would work until we started winning in year 4..
There are fans out here to understand why Preller was hired and how long his plan should take if properly executed. Unfortunately, the most vocal fans are the “knee-jerk” fans who overreact and call for heads to roll.
Preller came to San Diego with a reputation for scouting and player development. He’s gradually turned over the staffs in those areas, and now he’s poised to add a new wave of young talent this summer via the draft and international signings. It will take at least a few years for this year’s crop to bear fruit.
In the meantime, he has $100-150M to spend each year to put a team on the field that will sell some tickets and merchandise to keep the bottom line happy. The fans need to understand how this works and deal with it, until it’s clear that his long-term plan worked or failed.
Padres management could help themselves by being more transparent through this. Mike Dee is pushing the team like a car salesman, acting as if they’re building a juggernaut today. That isn’t the case. They’ve put together a team that could win if the stars aligned, but the real focus is on the horizon. I wish they would be more straightforward with the fans and the media on this.
It’s pretty clear that it hasn’t worked. Preller gutted a top 5 farm system and took on 3 MLB contracts that can’t be moved for prospects and that will tie up more than half of the payroll through 2017 and more than a 3rd of the payroll in 2018. A $108 million payroll that last year the ownership and DEE said was really more than they should have spent. After 2016 there will be only one possible FA that can be given a QO, Cashner, so no additional draft picks coming. That means that in order to rebuild he will have to move players like Cashner, Ross and Norris at or before the trading deadline this season. If the real focus was on the horizon, he would not have traded away the farm for one year of J Upton, traded more top prospects for Myers, and taken on the contracts of Kemp and M Upton while signing Shields to a huge contract.
Epstein didn’t go out and spend a franchise record amount of money on free agents and make trades for big name players while leaving his farm system bereft of talent and his major league team completely without MLB quality backups. MANY Padres fans were completely against trades for Kemp, Myers, Kimbrel and Middlebrooks and rightfully so. ALL of those trades turned out to be losers in terms of WAR for last season.
I am not so sure Preller has a plan. The team he put together last year was terrible on defense and was totally unbalanced.
This year the defense is worse. I know that is hard to believe, but we have more errors and less DP and assists through this point.
We are stuck with Kemp, Upton and Shields unless they all have lights out first half’s. He gutted our already bad bullpen for prospects this offseason but didn’t pull the trigger on trades of other pieces. Ross, Cashner, and Norris should have been traded in the offseason if he was trying to rebuild.
Right now we are at a point that the team will have to be dismantled, but we can’t start a rebuild until after Kemp, Shields and Upton’s contracts are off the books. He has put us back 2 years in the development of a team that can compete in the NL West. by signing or trading for those contracts.
No one was against the Middlebrooks trade. We gave up nothing to get him and paid him nothing in 2015. There was literally no risk involved in that trade. It didn’t work out, but we are no worse off because of it.
As far as trading Cashner, you could make an argument that he will have more value at the deadline than he did in the offseason.
No one? I think if you go back and read the comments here and on the Padres boards at the time you will find a lot of people, including me, that said it was a bad deal. Turns out I was correct about Middlebrooks, too. He was awful, hitting .212/.241 with well below average defense and contributing a negative WAR. Hanigan played in 54 games as a backup catcher, played above average defense and hit .247/.337 in 174 AB with a 0.6 WAR. Quite good for a backup catcher.
The only way Cashner has more trade value at the deadline than he did in the offseason was if he pitches lights out the rest of the 1st half. Being able to offer a QO if he is pitching well is valuable and would have increased his trade value.
Good point by Pads fan here. Once the season started and QO lost on a Cashner his value tanked for trade bait. Too bad. When the Cubs traded him for Rizzo I was thrilled to get Rizzo but sorry to lose Cashner. But it was a trade someone to get someone deal at the time. Cashner had so much promise and started well for Padres for a bit. Not sure what happenned
I’m not upset about losing Hanigan and neither is anyone else. The Middlebrooks trade had upside for us. It didn’t work out, cut bait and move on.
As far as Cashner, I only said you could make an argument that his trade value would be higher at the deadline. I don’t necessarily agree but it’s definitely possible. After a bad 2015 there likely wasn’t much interest in him. If he can post an ERA in the low-mid 3’s in the first half of 2016 then we should be able to get something decent for him at the deadline. There will always be demand for rental starters at the deadline. And as for the QO thing, I don’t think anyone wants to give him a QO in the first place.
Preller is no Theo! Theo had a plan to strip and build a real organization for sustained success and after 3 years he was well on his way and had dramatically improved the minor league system that was barron. Theo is a hall of fame executive who will be the top paid exec in the game in a matter of weeks for a reason.
Preller took a good Padre system and ruined it to get a major league roster of losers. Now the minors have no prospects and major league team is a joke. You should not put Prellers name anywhere near Theo!
They are not going to give Preller the ax a year and a half into a 5-year contract.
We are on the same page… Just wanted to share our experience with theo so far. The foundational/forming years are no fun and we (I) “believed” but had nothing to compare to (108 years of losing is all I know). We heard the ‘we are going to do it right’… We heard the ‘please be patient’ … And all the ‘trust us’ comments … It was hard and we didn’t know what we didn’t know. We are only starting to realize how much we didn’t know and what (with the right leadership) might be possible… I think you have a good guy in AJ
No. Just no. Stop saying “our” like you speak for the collective Cubs fanbase. Smart fans knew what he was doing, it was pretty obvious what his plan was if you were paying attention to the moves he made (and more importantly the ones he did not make). That’s the big problem with SD. There isn’t a clear idea of what their plan is.
There are many people, as far back as a couple of years ago, that expected the cubs to be a very good team this year (thus why you hear that perhaps they arrived a year early last year).
Thank you Chester! Well said. Many real fans knew what Theo was doing and I loved it. It was so annoying for a few years to see fans post and rip Theo and Ricketts when they had no clue.
If we continue to play like we have been, they will. They have already done it with one GM and Preller is doing worse at this point.
Really? What former GM did we ax with 3+ years left on his contract?
Byrnes. He was in the 2nd year of a 5 year deal as GM. He had been VP of Baseball Operations before that. Byrnes was touted by the Padres as excelling at scouting and player development according to ESPN.
I thought Byrnes got a raw deal. He made one gawdawful trade (Rizzo for Cashner), but had a lot of nice trades ( T Ross, Kennedy, S Smith), and a good FA signing (Benoit) with what little budget he was given. Fowler and Dee put the blame on Byrnes for not being a contender in 2014, but things were heading in the right direction.
Then they blamed (and fired) Bud Black in 2015.
Fowler/Dee will have to find another scapegoat this year.
Wrong again, Richard. Byrnes was definitely in his third year as our GM when he got the ax.
To be fair, the main point used against Byrnes is the extensions he handed out to various players. He whiffed on every single extension except Chris Denorfia.
Ahh great point. Forgot about the extensions. I think Luebke, Maybin, Quentin to name a few. All bombed.
Bautista or Encarnacion will be a Red Sox hours if not days after FA opens.. Red Sox GM Dombrowski will strike quickly with a big contract offer to 2 guy whose swings are ideal for Fenway and will be the best sluggers available in the FA market. Dombrowski got the prized ace and best closer in the game this past offseason. Personally I want Bautista in Boston.
As a Red Sox hater, I certainly hope Dombrowski is able to land one of these guys with a big contract.
At some point, these style moves will just be too much – dedicating about 90 mil to four players in Price, HanRam, Pablo, and Bautista/Encarnacion. I can’t imagine that translating to a winning team, even for a franchise with the payroll abilities the sox have.
I would assume Preller’s job is fine for 2-3 more years. He supposedly has a “plan” but really who knows…
I heard he has an eye for young talent, but when you trade guys like Trea Turner (then try to require him), Joe Ross, Matt Wisler, Yasmani Grandal, Jesse Hahn, Jake Bauers, Max Fried, Zach Eflin, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith then ruin Austin Hedges, sit Jankowski over Upton and Jay, attempt to trade Renfroe, hold off on moving vets for youth…well then your plan should be in question.
I was never a fan of the 2014/15 moves from the start, remember a couple years back we had a top 3 farm system. Now let me show you why I was not a fan of the moves.
If we took away all the trades made last year and invested in a big name (or 2) this off season, here is what the Padres could’ve looked like for 2016
C- Yasmani Grandal/Austin Hedges
1B- Chris Davis
2B- Corey Spangenberg/Jace Peterson
3B- Y Solarte
SS- Trea Turner
LF- Cameron Maybin
CF- Travis Jankowsi/Mallex Smith
RF- Jason Heyward
Rotation
1) Shields
2) T Ross
3) Cashner
4) J Ross
5) J Hahn/Wisler
CL) Quack
Not the best ever but much much better than the recycled can of a team now. I am really hoping we land some serious young talent this summer or I fear James Loney, Christian Friedrich and Mike Olt will be our top guys headed into the winter.
No way Davis and Heyward would have signed with us hahaha
Owner Fowler dictated that he get rid of Grandal. Giving all that $ to shields was poor judgment. Myers better be a stud to justify that trade. Lots of picks this year that will make or break aj and the Padres. 3 years min will be painful. Preller showed inexperience in firing buddy, disrespecting Roberts, and bringing up that Murphy clown. Aj is on short leash now….too bad he didn’t start on one….we could have avoided some bad moves. He had no track record and did not deserve carte Blanche. ESPN article that calls him a wrecker is the best account that I have read. I am not aj fan but hope I am wrong
When did Fowler say Grandal had to go? He has never intimated that and certainly has never come out and said that. That was just a stupid trade trying to bring in a marquis player to sell tickets. No matter how good AJ is at drafting players, those picks this June are 4-6 years away from contributing to our team at the MLB level. Either we are stuck with Preller for another 4-5 years or he is gone if this team collapses the way most fans believe it will after the break when Preller finally starts the rebuild.
I love when people just assume all you have to is sign this guy and that guy!
There’s a reason the Padres sign pitchers and trade for hitters…..these are “people”…. Not baseball cards.
Free agents have choices and they prefer hitters Parks in big markets!
Stop saying we should have “just signed” Chris Davis and Jason Heyward!
This is one of those comments that makes me upset they took out the “upvote” feature.
Also….can we stop with the Kemp trade being “one of the worst ever”!
What have any of the guys we gave up for him done for the Dodgers?
Nothing.
Grandal will never stay healthy.
There’s a reason he used PED’s.
The Padres had to have a name player who can produce runs…..Kemp has most certainly been that guy!
It was one of the worst ever. The Dodgers were desperate to get rid of Kemp. They were lucky to get ANYTHING for him, let alone Grandal and Eflin.
Kemp trade was one of worst ever for Padres. Grandal hit nearly as many home runs in 2/3 the at-bats and provided a better WAR 2.3 vs 0.4. Kemp produced less runs in terms of wRC. If you think RBI are an indication of individual production you need to think again. It’s not.
If Grandal was ALL the Padres traded for Kemp and his ridiculous contract it was too much. Add in the rest of the trade and you have one of the worst in Padres history.
Grandal was worth 2 more wins than kemp and at a fraction of the cost. So if he hasn’t done anything for the dodgers, then what has kemp done?
Why did the Padres need to have a name player who can produce runs? To sell tickets? Actually winning baseball games is the best way to do that.
So no, just because you don’t understand why the Kemp trade was terrible does not mean that people will stop calling it as such.
first of all, it always makes for more of an interesting story, to say a GM like Preller is about to be fired, when in fact, he was hired to focus more on the future than the present. Bottom line, if ownership wanted a better on field product, then they should pay for it..and stop with with the Rule 5 & reclamation project crap. It really is that simple.
you can only blame Preller so much, because like all the GMs that came before him, he can only spend what is given to him.
the Ken Rosenthals and Joel Shermans are always waiting by the phone, for someone to get fired, because it sells more and keeps folks watching their twitter accounts. Fire Preller now, and the Padres can completely forget about having the international talent pool, they’ve always wanted.
Whose going to do what he cant do?…Jedd Hoyer?..oh, thats right, he bailed the Hell out, years ago…Kevin Towers?…oh, thats right, he got fired because yet another owner change, but then KT went to Arizona and lost his mind, spending money he had never seen before….spent it, unwisely., and got fired again…..Josh Byrnes?..just another Towers clone.
ok, So, Preller is what you got. The Padres cant keep firing GMs for inept lineups that God Almighty couldnt fix.. You want a better lineup?….SPEND REAL MONEY FOR ONE, PADRES!!!