JUNE 14: The Brewers and Giants have thus far had only one “minimal” discussion surrounding Braun, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal reminds that the Giants are one of six teams to which Braun cannot block a trade (along with the Angels, Dodgers, D-backs, Padres and Marlins, as Rosenthal initially reported back in March), but there are nonetheless obstacles to a deal. Chief among them is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is more concerned with ensuring that the Brewers receive premium talent than he is shedding a portion of Braun’s notable contract. The Giants’ farm system is considered below average in recent rankings from Baseball America (19th in baseball) and ESPN’s Keith Law (21st), so other teams may be able to offer a better package to meet those demands. Rosenthal also notes that the Giants will need to restock their bullpen after the ’16 season, and spending heavily on Braun limits their ability to do so by pushing them considerably closer to the luxury tax threshold (even with the aforementioned contracts coming off the books).
JUNE 13: With Hunter Pence on the disabled list due to a torn hamstring, the Giants are “looking everywhere” for another outfielder, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). To that end, they’ve had preliminary discussions with the Brewers about Ryan Braun, according to Nightengale, though he also cautions that there’s nothing imminent between the two teams.
Braun’s name has been mentioned frequently as a potential trade candidate — he sat at No. 3 on Jeff Todd’s most recent trade candidate rankings here at MLBTR — in large part because he’s having one of the most productive seasons of his career on a rebuilding Brewers club. The 32-year-old is batting .316/.378/.541 with 11 homers, 11 doubles and five stolen bases through his first 217 plate appearances this season.
That production aside, the common consensus surrounding the controversial slugger is that the Brewers would likely have to absorb some salary in order to move him. Braun is in the first season of a five-year, $105MM contract extension that was tacked onto his initial eight-year, $45MM deal back in 2011. He’s earning $19MM this season (with about $11.5MM remaining) and is owed a total of approximately $87.52MM through the end of the 2020 campaign. From a contractual standpoint, the Giants can likely afford Braun; Angel Pagan, Santiago Casilla, Gregor Blanco, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are all free agents at season’s end, and the team has an extremely affordable arbitration class with only George Kontos ($1.15MM in 2016) and Cory Gearrin (pre-arb) looking at raises.
That massive extension for Braun (the largest in Brewers franchise history) came before his 2011 NL MVP Award and also before a messy PED scandal in which Braun accused a test collector of tampering with his urine sample before publicly admitting to steroid use more than a year later in the wake of the Biogenesis investigation.
While Braun certainly comes with some past baggage, he’s regained much of his production and hasn’t failed a test since serving a 65-game suspension to close out the 2013 season. With both Pence and Pagan on the disabled list, the Giants have been relying on a combination of Gregor Blanco and rookies Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson to flank Denard Span in the outfield corners. None of that trio, however, is enjoying a particularly productive 2016 campaign to date. Pagan has hit well when healthy enough to take the field, but he’s also spent three weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury and missed 10 days earlier this season with that same injury.
What remains unclear at this time, though, is the Giants’ sense of urgency in getting a deal done. Pence tweeted that he underwent his operation last Thursday, and the Giants may not want to make a drastic move until having a clearer picture of his ability to return to the field. Indeed, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes (links to Twitter) that the Giants are hoping to hold down the fort until Pence’s return, making a more incremental trade likelier in the short-term. ESPN’s Jim Bowden discussed a Braun/Giants scenario earlier today as well (Insider subscription required), writing that it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants pursue Braun and linking prospects Tyler Beede and Christian Arroyo to the Brewers, though it’s not entirely clear if those names are mentioned in speculative fashion. Like Schulman, Bowden implies that a significant move for the Giants would happen at the deadline as opposed to seven weeks in advance, where we presently stand.
Braun certainly would help the Giants, and they should have enough of the right kind of prospects to interest Milwaukee, depending on cash demands from Milwaukee, but Braun just feels more like a luxury than a necessity for that team, and it doesn’t seem like a Giants-type move to get him.
I think they should and probably do have their attention more on their bullpen. If the Yankees demand too much for, or decide not to move Miller or Chapman, the Brewers could be a good team to talk with for San Francisco as well.
Not saying Braun doesn’t get traded, but this doesn’t look and feel like the right match.
Do the Giants really have the prospects to get into the trading game with reams like the Rangers or Cubs? I don’t think so. Any reliever the Cubs or Rangers really want, they can easily outbid the Giants.
Christian Arroyo is almost major league ready and he is very young, plus there is no room in the infield for him.
I would hate to see arroyo go away
Brewers already have one of the top SS prospects in the game in Orlando Arcia who’s almost major league ready. They also have Villar ahead of him performing at an All Star level. Sure they could add Arroyo but then they’d be forced to deal either he or Arcia, and team knowing they don’t have room for both won’t give them value in return.
Any deal with Giants would need to include Shaw, Parker and either of Bickford or Beede and no money from Brewers. Brewers would give Parker a shot at corner OF spot vacated by Braun. Shaw would give them power hitting 1B prospect relatively close, something they don’t have, and either pitcher gives them an arm that could pay dividends in 2-3 years. That’s the kind of haul the Brewers will insist on as they do not have to trade Braun.
Why would they be “forced” to trade either one of those guys?? Many people already believe that Villar slides to 3B when Arcia comes up as they have no real future plan there as of now and they believe Villar will start hitting with enough pop to stay there. Villar at 3B, Arcia at SS, Arroyo moves into 2B when he’s ready. As much as Scooter is a fan favorite, Arroyo has much more upside. The rest of their IF prospects are either not going to hit enough to be more than utility guys (Rivera) or still pretty far out (Diaz, Gatewood, Lara). Agreed that it isn’t the top need, but a top 100 guy is still a top 100 guy and they can make room. If nothing else you move Arroyo to the OF, or try to make him a super utility guy.
The Cubs and Rangers could outbid the Giants for any reliever, but would they? The Giants may offer a killer package that the Rangers or Cubs wouldn’t want to meet to get a reliever.
I think the problem with that might be that the Giants’ farm is pretty thin, at present. As bigjon mentioned, SF doesn’t quite have the resources to match other teams–if other teams are seriously trying to outbid them. And to empty a system already somewhat barren is a tall order.
the cubs aren’t all in on a reliever I would think.. they could use a reliever to add dominance but aren’t hurting for one. Giants and rangers I would argue are bith hurting but it is also a question for the giants as to where Romo is when he comes back, is the guy a rental (there are needs for next season on so chapman may not be a fit) and at what cost and what is the depth for what they are giving up. arroyo may be a chip or may be some insurance against say regression for panik and duffy.
I agree. The Cubs bullpen isn’t THAT bad. They’re still #10 in bullpen ERA in the MLB. IF they had a pressing need, it was the bullpen, but definitely not at the cost of their depth. And if the Cubs do trade for one of the, it won’t be Chapman. The Cubs have a dominant closer as is, and he doesn’t get many chances because the Cubs blowout almost every game. I don’t think the Cubs are interested in breaking the bank for a dominant lefty closer to play a setup or middle relief role for a few months.
I disagree. Chapman would be the cheapest of NYY big 3 and would fit a spot of weakness. I don’t think he would slot into closer, but is great in the redundancy department if/when injuries occur.
Problem with that is Chapman wants to close only. Cubs don’t really want a disgruntled pitcher, even for a few months. Miller is a better fit but will be way more expensive in terms of prospects.
Any team that traded for chapman and doesn’t slot him in as the closer is foolish.
The Rangers and Cubs aren’t being linked to Ryan Braun, genius.
I think he was talking about relief pitchers, not Ryan Braun.
Just because a team can outbid, doesn’t mean they will. A team may value a prospect more than you think and be unwilling to pull the trigger.
What do you mean Braun would be a luxury not a necessity? As it stands, their OF for the vital next 2 months is Gregor Blanco, Denard Span and Jarrett Parker. They absolutely need Ryan Braun.
I think they need bullpen help more than they need Braun. Yes, he would make the team better, but he would cost high end prospects that may be better served to shore up that bullpen, or save for their own major league roster in the near future. THAT is why Braun is more “luxury” than “necessity.”
If the Giants really were to make a move for an outfielder, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went for a rental type like Jay Bruce, or more of a 4th outfielder type they feel can play with some regularity, play good defense, and hit ok.
Left handed bat homie, already have too many of those. Not gunna happen
I get it with the handedness, but the fact he is just a rental means the prospect cost may be a bit lower, so the Giants may prefer the concept of someone like Bruce, even if the handedness isn’t ideal.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick up Carl Crawford first. With time to he deadline sign him, see what he can do while pursuing a Braun trade in Parallel. If Crawford works out you back out. If he doesn’t you bench him or release him.
The only thing stopping this happening is that it’s not the standard MO for SF to great veterans like that (except maybe Uggla but I think there was more to that than we know). Can’t wait to read Sabeans book when he retires.
I’m curious as to what others who don’t follow the Brewers deem as the “right kind of prospects” for the Brewers?
The Brewers biggest needs are power hitting corner OF/1B or top of the rotation starting pitching that are close to major league ready. They are very strong up the middle in prospects and have many mid to late rotation type If you need Braun, obviously you don’t have the former to offer and not many team ever part with the latter.
Brewers need Braun too and in their salary structure now, he doesn’t break the bank for them.
Here’s who the Brewers should target from teams. Best prospects they can get, and the lowest cash payment out they can get.
I know that’s vague, and doesn’t say much, but get the best players possible, and worry about “fit” and “need” later on when you’re coming out of the rebuild. Even though they have a decent amount of mid-back rotation starting prospects, bullpen prospects, and outfield prospects, and not enough for 1B, 3B, and 2B prospects, you can always trade productive surpluses for better fits and more pressing needs later on.
They don’t need a guy to be super close to MLB ready, In fact Sterns has routinely gone after younger guys with higher upside instead of pro ready guys. Someone like Chris Shaw who is a great pure hitter but will take a a year or two to learn to play 1B after being moved in from the OF is the exact kind of guy Stearns likes. Lucious Fox has some good upside as a top of the order guy, especially if he really makes the move to CF. Coonrod and Bickford could be good pieces as you can never have too many arms and apart from Hader none of the Brewers minor league pitching is much to write home about thanks to Lopez’s collapse. Ponce, Miedeiros, Williams, etc are all hard to even count on as back of the rotation guys.
Not saying any kind of deal gets done, but depending on financials if the Giants would part with one of Beede or Arroyo in a package their are other guys that could definitely be pieces.
As I Giants fan Braun would be a nice piece but need to have the Brewers eat a great amount of that contract for that to happen eclectically giving them those prospects
May not happen, but padres have jon jay and melvin upton jr who would cost a lot less. Padres should ask for arroyo for jay. Pure rental but a great lead off hitter who would excel in the outfield as he has in cf. And isnt the financial committment that braun is.
Jon Jay for Christian Arroyo (definite overpay but probably the best rental outfielder- could deal arroyo for a long term piece, but possible financial commitment risks).
Melvin Upton for suarez, ryder jones and coonrad both pitchers and a 3B- not beede, crick, or bickford.
Both offer defensive value that braun doesnt.
You don’t give up your best prospect for 31-year-old Jon Jay.. That’s how GMs get fired.
Yet sabean gave up zach wheeler for carlos beltran couple years ago and survived that.
3 rings in 5 years gives you decent job security I hear. Only thing I could see that this point is in a few years, there’s a lot of old money on the books with a weak system. Maybe then a mutual split occurs, but he’s more than earned his keep
Arroyo is their best prospect? Yikes. Dude’s got about a 700 OPS in AA and is a poor defender at SS. Probably a 3B long term, without corner power. I don’t think you get Jon Jay for him.
I’m not sure that Jon Jay gets arroyo. It could be a possibility but same with upton a lot f money would have to change hands to make any deal happen
Jon Jay is an empty hitter and a really overrated defender. Braun is a game-changer at the plate and only slightly less a defender than Jay. Giants need the hitting more than they need defense in LF.
What? an empty hitter and really overrated defender? How many Padres game have you watched?
The guy is a solid center fielder and probably the best lead off hitter we’ve had in a long time. ( I know that’s not saying much).
His age would be the only deterrent in my opinion. Otherwise, the guy is solid.
Yeah an empty hitter batting .287/.333/.393. If thats an empty hitter id hate to see what you define as a great hitter. Heck probably no great hitters by your standards dude.
That’s empty meaning Braun’s slg pct line: .316/.378/.541
be honest here, what did it take to get Jon Jay? Jedd Gyorko. He’s got less team control now and is more expensive than then. He’s not much better than last season. It’s empty. He’s a 1WAR player on a Season. Braun can be a 1WAR player alone in a given month.
That’s roughly league average.
Jon jay, not Braun…
Jon Jay doesn’t give us anything we can’t get from Pagan. Plus our lineup is already too left handed as it is.
so if pagan comes back you have span pagan and jay? that is redundancy, the giants need a guy with pop with pence out….
You 3 have cfs roaming att field. Defense wins championships no matter what sport you play. They have enough pop w posey belt crawford and pagan is no lock to stay healthy.
Jay’s defense in CF rates incredibly poorly by fangraphs. Currently at -12.5 UZR and just the eye test shows that’s probably accurate, plus he has a rag arm. He’s a very nice fourth outfielder and pinch-hitter but an outfielder with a 333 OBP/393 SLG% isn’t anything special.
BTW that negative UZR is over 150 games – jay’s current UZR is -5.6, and he’s been worth negative 4 DRS so far this season.
They will rely on Williamson and/or Parker until Pence returns. Unless they cannot be productive, then we might need Braun
Giants would be better served getting Bruce for arroyo I’m sure the Reds would take that since cozart is likely next out the door and Suarez is a no glove.
I think the Giants could get away with not giving up arroyo or beede is the take on all of Braun’s salary. I also think they don’t need to trade for Miller the Yankees want to much for him. Get a guy or guys like Storen or Rodney or even s guys like Axford from the A’s or joe smith from the Angels guys that they won’t have to give a lot for and could still impact the pen.
Yeah, but the Giants are pretty much at their budgetary limit. Doesn’t seem like they’ll be comfortable adding $20 million + per year.
They have 30+million less payroll for next season and more beyond that. So Yes they can afford an 18million(not 20) contract.
Giants are also done paying off their loan for the statement soon (next year or the year after) they have plenty of money to spare right now
Now your ideas for bullpen guys to target do seem like typical Giants type moves. Specific guys who could fill a specific role. Those guys, and some of the back end of the bullpen pitchers from the Brewers (Jeffress, Smith, Thornburg, Blazek, Boyer) just make sense, if the Giants are interested.
Cool I hope they get him. I have always kind of liked the Brewers and this will give me one more reason to dislike Braun
Giants don’t have a great farm system. Not many high end prospects there. Arroyo may be the most ready, but he still has a lot of holes in his game. I’m not personally convinced he will be more than a backup in the long term.
The Giants so far have performed quite well with Panik, Crawford and Duffy all producing at least somewhat below what was expected. Not to mention the outfield woes. They could very much use Braun.
I like how people keep saying the Giants don’t have a great farm system, what are you even talking about? They are pretty loaded with good prospects now, And considering all the success they have had The past six seasons They are more stacked than you think. Beede,Bickford, and Arroyo would be top prospects for most teams. Not to mention a handful of others.
I apologize. I should had clearly said the Giants don’t have a great farm system this season. Especially since it was in reference to having the potential pieces to meet the Brewers demand for Ryan Braun.
I’d hazard a guess without even looking that most all rankings of minor league systems would put the Giants currently in the bottom third of all organizations if not lower.. Arroyo is their only prospect in the top 100 (and he is 75th I think). They have extremely few that project as more than role players in the bigs at this point, recent draftees not withstanding.
Very true. But Duffy was never considered a top prospect! He could be an outlier but who knows how many Duffy’s are in anyone’s farm system. Sometimes making it to the show and playing in front of a big crowd overwhelms a player and makes another player kick butt.
Giants don’t trade for 100 million dollar contracts. If anything the trade for a Francouer type and mid relievers.
Yeah, that would be out of character for them.
I agree. Could be trying to jack up the price for anyone else trying to get braun be faking demand.
You’re kidding, right? Giants have the fifth-highest payroll in baseball and they give out massive contracts all the time. Money is no object to them. This is the team that paid 126 million dollars for 3.3 WAR over 7 seasons (Barry Zito) and threw buckets of cash out the window with Winn, Lowry, Cain, Peavy, Rowand, Scutaro et. al.
Ty Blach and Cj Hinojosa for Braun. and i am not sure how the money shakes out. i dont see the Giants paying tons of Cash….Brewers will have to eat some cash for sure.
They’s need to ask for cash back if that is the Giants offer.
if you’re a Brewer’s fan, why would you want Blach? I would imagine if the front office of the Giants seriously want this trade done (which already seems quite out of character for them) anyone not named Lucius Fox, Chris Shaw or Andrew (not Albert) Suarez is game
I really don’t see what’s so great about Lucius Fox. I don’t think he’s going to be anything more than a light hitting utility player.
Here’s an opportunity for the Tigers to dump Justin Upton. Justin Upton to the Giants, Jay Bruce to the Tigers, Not Thoughtout to the Reds
It’s a pretty known and public fact that Upton hates playing at AT&T
Does he have a no trade clause? But yet you’re right. Why would the Giants get him knowing he doesn’t want to be there. Sabean is very smart when it comes to clubhouse chemistry. Not saying upton is a cancer but if he’s unhappy and complaining he will bring the vibe down
Upton isn’t doing anything this season and his remaining contract.. .yikes
I think a deal of Braun, Boyer and 25M, for Bickford, Shaw, Coonrod and Snelton would be even for both sides. Brewers get some young players who could potentially become very useful starters in the coming years and the giants get a much needed OF bat and some bullpen help.
Giants can’t take on Braun… they already have 3 OFers that are over 30.. they need to get younger.
Whoever trades for Braun today will live to regret it tomorrow. Braun is 32 and is in the first year of a five year contract. With all of his injuries that he’s dealt with in the past, I question whether or not he’ll be able to hold up into his late 30’s and be able to maintain any production. The Brewers need to trade him this season as his value will likely never be higher.
Braun $20M to Atlanta for Markakis, Riley, and Thurman.
Why there is no reason for that trade. The braves need a young hitter not one that’s 32
Because Atlanta wants to win now?
What makes you think the braves want to win now? They’re rebuilding. They want as high of a draft pick as possible.
Both teams are rebuilding. That trade makes zero sense for both.
That was almost too easy.
What the Braves need is a hitter, period. Also need a way to help fill seats in SunTrust.
Offloading Markakis ($10.5MM annually) with Braun ($20 – 4 annually) still leads the Braves for at worst (being if their record increases positively) 3rd pick in 2017 draft. Now without unloading Julio or Freeman, they have a true 3-4 combo in the lineup and when 2018 rolls around (hypothetically with nothing changing), the have:
CF Inciarte
2B d’Arnaud/Albies
C Flowers (option year)
1B Freeman
LF Braun
SS Swanson
RF Smith
3B Ruiz (a stretch here)
While only racking on $5.5M in excess over the next two years annually. IF Freeman returns to what got him his extension, the starting lineup will have a payroll of around $55M considering Freeman, Braun, arbitration raises and Olivera’s contract in 2018.
Milwaukee in 2018 would be out of Markakis and Braun salaries (minus the $4M annually). As of projected 2018 salaries on Cot’s, there would be the $4M paid to ATL only and Garza’s option.
The problem is that the Brewers arent going to trade Braun for another aging and under performing player. They will want youth in return. So maybe you throw in Markakis to make some of the dollars even out, but you can also count on a few of the Braves prospects making their way to the Brewers minor league system as well. I see where you’re going with the idea, but its a pretty unnatural fit given the fact that the Brewers and Braves are trying to accomplish the same thing at virtually the same time.
Good point sir. Obviously wasn’t a fully constructed trade agreement, but the premise is what I was shooting for in it. I agree with you, to make the trade possible with Markakis would probably require another prospect, pitching prospect in the 9-13 range to go with the 7th and 17th included already.
Braun would help the team with a right handed bat but im not sure about giving up Arroyo or Beede is smart idea. Braun is owed a lot of money still. Id rather the sfgiants take there chances with a smaller deal like they have done in the past. I would only trade Arroyo for another player as equal as hes value but a position we need such as an outfielder. I know other teams are eyeing our pitching in the minors so they will try there best to overpay.
IF he stays healthy and doesn’t get suspended again… his contract doesn’t seem that bad . expensive for a rebuilding team perhaps.
With the exception of the suspension season.. hes been over 550 Plate appearances and 135 games his whole career. 80M over the next 4 (if bought out) for a 3.5+ WAR player isn’t tooo crazy if he keeps it up.
I would think what ever the brewers would have to eat wouldn’t’ be that much. depending on the return.
It also seems like his main nagging injury has been his thumb, a thumb injury is going to be prolonged for just about any MLB player if it is finally fully healed I don’t think it is as much of a red flag any more, unless it is something known to re-occur.
Braun fits perfectly in San Francisco, they need another PED guy.
I love headlines like this. I have to assume that the Brewers have ‘briefly discussed’ their entire roster with 15-20 different teams.
Good point: I briefly discussed running for President with my Chief of Staff, Bo Dudley.